EXTRACTING FORECASTING OR QUICK SALE

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EXTRACTING FORECASTING OR QUICK SALE
ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE MARKET
You are completing an appraisal in
an area where normal marketing time
is 150-210 days. You have gathered
data on sales under 120 days and
over 120 days in order to possibly
extract a forecasting adjustment.
After preliminary analysis, you
decide that an analysis of sales price
per square foot would be most
appropriate.
FORECASTING/QUICK SALE ADJUSTMENTS
Table 1: Sales under 120 days on market
Sale Price
Sq Ft
DOM
SP per Sq Ft
$245,000
2100
85
$116.67
$290,000
2390
110
$121.34
$218,000
1960
75
$111.22
$272,000
2275
90
$119.56
$231,000
2080
101
$111.06
Mean = $115.77 median = $116.67
Reconciliation: most similar = $245,000.
FORECASTING/QUICK SALE ADJUSTMENTS
Table 2: Sales over 120 days on market
Sale Price
Sq Ft
DOM
SP per Sq Ft
$237,000
1910
189
$124.08
$258,000
2070
210
$124.64
$305,000
2310
150
$132.03
$275,000
2095
155
$131.26
$280,000
2145
225
$130.54
Mean = $128.51 Median = $130.54
Reconciliation: most similar = $275,000.
FORECASTING/QUIUCK SALE ADJUSTMENTS
Sales Price Per Square Foot
Over 120 days: Mean - $128.51 Median - $130.54
Under 120 days: Mean - $115.77 Median - $116.67
Difference:
Mean - $12.74 Median - $ 13.87
Reconciliation of data:
Over 120 days: Sale #2 $275,000 = $131.76
Under 120 days: Sale #5 $245,000 = $116.67
FORECASTING/QUICK SALE ADJUSTMENTS
Calculated as percentages:
$12.74/$115.77 = .110 or 11.0% (using Mean)
$13.87/$116.67 = .119 or 11.9% (using Median)
Based strictly on the statistical analysis:
What would your forecasting adjustment be on a
$272,000 sale that was on the market for 180 days?
(Answer: $31,280 at 11.5%. Anticipated Sale
Price/Quick Sale Value = $240,720)
FORECASTING/QUICK SALE ADJUSTMENTS
Reconciliation: Calculated as a percentage:
$245,000/$275,000 = .109 or 11% (rounded)
$ 116.67/$131.76
= .115 or 11.5%
Based on the Reconciliation percentage:
What would your forecasting adjustment be on a
$272,000 sale that was on the market for 180 days?
(Answer: $29,290 at 11%. Anticipated Sale
Price/Quick Sale Value = $242,080.)
FORECASTING/QUICK SALE ADJUSTMENTSADDITIONAL MEASURES
Raw Mean Sale Price*
$250,200 - $271,000 = ($20,800) = 7.7%
Raw Median Sale Price**
$245,000 - $275,000 = ($30,000)= 10.9%
*Percentage based on over 120 days Raw
Mean Sale Prices
**Percentage based on over 120 days Raw
Median Sale Prices
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