Broward County 2014 TAZ and Municipal Forecasts Update Wednesday, March 19, 2014 Broward County 2014 TAZ and Municipal Forecasts Update I. Introduction to the 2014 Population Projection Allocation Update Overview II. Bureau of Economic and Business Research Population Forecast (BEBR) III. BEBR Forecast by Age for Broward County IV. Broward County Households by Age of Householder V. Broward County Households by Household Size VI. Assignment of Dwelling Units, Households, and Household Population to Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) VII. Municipal Forecast of Dwelling Units, Households, and Population I. Introduction to the Broward County 2014 TAZ and Municipal Forecasts Update An update of forecast model developed in 2012 that was professionally acceptable and replicable. A continuation and update of the County’s 2012 TAZ and Municipal Forecasts. The update includes modifications and comments obtained from the 2012 Population Roundtable process approved methodology. Replaced internally-developed countywide forecasts with population forecasts prepared by University of Florida’s BEBR. I. Introduction to the Broward County 2014 TAZ and Municipal Forecasts Update Key Input University of Florida’s BEBR, “Detailed Population Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin, for Florida and Its Counties, 2015-2040, With Estimates for 2012 All Races” Key Action Convert and assign the BEBR forecasted estimates (2015-2040) to Broward County’s 2010 TAZ and municipalities using a household based model. Key Output Forecasts of households, household size, group quarters’ population, seasonally-occupied housing units, and all-other vacant units for years 2015 through 2040 in 5-year increments and supporting documentation. TAZ and municipal level forecasts of housing and population data for years 2015 through 2040 in 5-year increments. ** Base year of 2010 provided for reference purposes. I. Introduction to the Broward County 2014 TAZ and Municipal Forecasts Update Household-Based Model Assumptions BEBR’s forecasts by population age are converted to countywide household forecasts. Assigned to TAZ based on interaction between 1. The change in the countywide household-size distribution through forecast periods; 2. The established TAZ-level distribution of households; and 3. The capacity of each TAZ to absorb additional housing units. Generally based on the Land Use Plan and vacant land capacity. II. BEBR Population Forecast BEBR annually projects population for Florida and its counties. The percentage change between 2012 and 2040 is approximately 14.8%. County population growth is projected to average 10,000 annually through 2025 and 8,800 for the remainder of the period. Growth is dramatically lower than County’s historic growth which averaged 20,000 or more annually between 1970 and 2005. II. BEBR Population Forecast Broward Amongst Other Counties Rank and Population of Florida's 10 Most Populous Counties 2012 County Population 2025 County Population 2040 County Population MIAMI-DADE BROWARD PALM BEACH HILLSBOROUGH 2,551,290 1,771,099 1,335,415 1,256,118 MIAMI-DADE BROWARD PALM BEACH HILLSBOROUGH 2,892,389 1,901,480 1,545,998 1,543,143 MIAMI-DADE BROWARD HILLSBOROUGH ORANGE 3,204,915 2,033,471 1,823,183 1,798,433 ORANGE PINELLAS DUVAL LEE POLK BREVARD 1,175,941 920,381 869,729 638,029 606,888 545,625 ORANGE DUVAL PINELLAS LEE POLK BREVARD 1,494,880 969,678 923,619 858,524 750,467 616,941 PALM BEACH LEE DUVAL PINELLAS POLK PASCO 1,733,331 1,070,250 1,063,669 926,376 888,348 727,324 Source: compiled by Broward County Planning and Redevelopment Division from Table 1 (BEBR Population Forecasts by County Most of the future growth will continue to occur primarily in the most populous counties. Through 2040, Miami-Dade and Broward Counties remain 1st and 2nd. II. BEBR Population Forecast Broward Amongst Other Counties 10 Largest Population Increases among Florida Counties 2012 to 2025 County MIAMI-DADE ORANGE HILLSBOROUGH LEE 341,099 318,939 287,025 220,495 PALM BEACH POLK 210,583 PALM BEACH 143,579 POLK PASCO BROWARD OSCEOLA DUVAL 2025 to 2040 County Increase 131,677 130,381 123,613 99,949 MIAMI-DADE ORANGE HILLSBOROUGH LEE BROWARD PASCO OSCEOLA DUVAL Increase 312,526 303,553 280,040 211,726 187,333 137,881 131,991 127,085 121,453 93,991 Source: compiled by Broward County Planning and Redevelopment Division from Table 1 (BEBR Population Forecasts by County Much of Florida’s population growth (25% or nearly 1.7 million additional people by 2040) will be seen in a swath crossing the middle portion of the Florida Peninsula, including Orange, Hillsborough, Polk, Pasco and Osceola Counties. II. BEBR Population Forecast Reflections on Recent History Past growth was accommodated by the County’s supply of ample vacant developable land. By 2005, nearly all the vacant developable land in the County was built out. Future growth now is primarily dependent on redevelopment. 25-29 113,720 112,793 125,078 120,536 122,586 121,012 122,452 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 114,350 117,283 126,084 137,500 118,392 111,849 117,369 127,551 120,364 122,814 112,382 114,297 131,223 121,841 120,468 109,747 129,023 136,775 122,797 117,650 129,315 131,316 134,824 120,497 130,287 135,675 133,255 132,499 III. BEBR Forecast by Age for Broward County 50-54 County 135,654 139,028 123,766 Broward Population, by Age Group 55-59through118,746 128,048 134,544 2012 2040 111,298 106,670 115,105 117,887 120,161 107,951 104,012 112,309 Estimates 60-64 99,541 Projections 107,620 123,304 130,305 116,314 105,293 101,126 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 65-69 77,922 87,837 103,168 116,595 125,934 111,209 102,462 Total 1,771,099 1,797,981 1,850,809 1,901,480 1,948,726 1,992,208 2,033,471 70-74 57,768 64,288 81,890 94,084 109,870 116,269 105,992 0-4 104,366 104,834 106,812 108,679 109,365 111,346 111,100 75-79 44,398 44,793 57,463 69,207 85,067 93,885 106,556 5-9 105,825 107,296 105,036 109,548 109,542 112,732 113,241 80-84 38,196 38,729 36,261 46,241 56,640 69,107 77,912 10-14 110,909 107,808 110,846 107,591 111,734 112,706 115,731 85+ 43,699 47,782 50,141 55,463 59,842 74,523 85,896 15-19 113,836 112,085 111,116 111,376 109,600 112,843 115,506 184,061 15-17University 71,558 70,447 69,786 69,887“Detailed Population 68,721 Projections 70,745by Age,376,356 Source: of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, Sex,72,400 Race, and Hispanic Origin for Florida and Its Counties 2015-2040, With Estimates for 2012” June 2013 18-19 42,278 41,638 41,330 41,489 40,879 42,098 43,106 20-24 111,302 119,879 111,527 117,117 111,366 116,214 113,585 113,720 112,793 121,012 25-29By 2040, the number of 125,078 residents120,536 ages 70122,586 and greater is 122,452 30-34 114,350 118,392 120,364 131,223 129,023 129,315 130,287 projected to more than double the 2012 count. 35-39 117,283 111,849 122,814 121,841 136,775 131,316 135,675 40-44 126,084 117,369 112,382 120,468 122,797 134,824 133,255 45-49 137,500 127,551 114,297 109,747 117,650 120,497 132,499 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 135,654 118,746 99,541 77,922 139,028 128,048 107,620 87,837 123,766 134,544 123,304 103,168 111,298 120,161 130,305 116,595 106,670 107,951 116,314 125,934 115,105 104,012 105,293 111,209 117,887 112,309 101,126 102,462 70-74 75-79 80-84 57,768 44,398 38,196 64,288 44,793 38,729 81,890 57,463 36,261 94,084 69,207 46,241 109,870 85,067 56,640 116,269 93,885 69,107 105,992 106,556 77,912 III. BEBR Forecast by Age for Broward County Impacts from age cohort changes become more apparent as groups are consolidated. Broward County Population, by Selected Age Cohort 2012 through 2040 Age Cohort School Age (1) New Householders (2) Peak Earners (3) Baby Boom (4) Estimates 2012 Projections 2015 330,570 345,353 399,238 491,441 327,189 343,034 383,948 462,533 (1) Approximated by using ages 5-19 (2) Approximated by using ages 25-39 (3) Approximated by using ages 40-54 (4) Approximated by calculating ages for those born years 1946-1964 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 326,998 368,256 350,445 442,906 328,515 373,600 341,513 410,191 330,876 388,384 347,117 377,511 338,281 381,643 370,426 353,784 344,478 388,414 383,641 270,364 III. BEBR Forecast by Age for Broward County Broward County Population, by Selected Age Cohort 2012 through 2040 Age Cohort School Age (1) New Householders (2) Peak Earners (3) Baby Boom (4) Estimates 2012 Projections 2015 330,570 345,353 399,238 491,441 327,189 343,034 383,948 462,533 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 326,998 368,256 350,445 442,906 328,515 373,600 341,513 410,191 330,876 388,384 347,117 377,511 338,281 381,643 370,426 353,784 344,478 388,414 383,641 270,364 (2) Approximated by usingwithin ages 25-39 Impacts from the age cohorts (1) Approximated by using ages 5-19 (3) Approximated by using ages 40-54 (4) Approximated by calculating ages for those born years 1946-1964 Total “School Age” population remains relatively stable. “New Householders” generally increases over the forecast, though there are a couple of periods of stagnation or even slight declines. “Peak Earners” cohort trends downward as the workforce is eroded through life events (retirement) By 2040, the baby-boom cohort is decreased by more than half of its 2012 size. III. BEBR Forecast by Age for Broward County Impacts from within the age cohorts Baby-Boomer households downsizing will compete against new household creation and have impacts on the need for health care services, placing increasing demands on Medicare and Medicaid while reducing the number of wage-earners and associated tax revenues. While the population gradually increases, the number of people generally considered as potential participants in the labor force remains constant through 2025 and declines thereafter. Relatively fewer dollars circulating in the economy. QUESTIONS IV. Broward County Households by Age of Householder Principal component in determining the number of households is the age distribution of the population. Householders as Percent of Age Group, Broward County 2000, 2010, and for Forecasts Householder 15 to 24 years Householder 25 to 34 years Householder 35 to 44 years Householder 45 to 54 years Householder 55 to 59 years Householder 60 to 64 years Householder 65 to 74 years Householder 75 to 84 years Householder 85 years and over 2000 (1) 2010 (3) Forecast (4) 12.10% 46.10% 54.67% 58.08% 58.38% (2) 58.83% (2) 61.39% 66.55% 66.17% 9.07% 41.51% 52.45% 56.78% 58.38% 60.32% 62.09% 65.43% 70.32% 11.09% 44.57% 53.93% 57.64% 58.38% 59.33% 61.62% 66.18% 70.32% (1) Calculated from SF1 2000 Census Tables H016, QT-P1 (2) Calculated from SF3 2000 Census Tables H014, P008 (3) Calculated from SF1 2010 Census Tables H17, QT-P1 (4) Broward County Planning & Environmental Regulation Division The Forecast Percentages reflect a weighted average of twice the 2000 percentages and one of the 2010. IV. Broward County Households by Age of Householder Broward County Householders by Age Group calculated by applying the forecasted percentage of householders as percent of age group applied to population by age groups. Broward County Householders by Age Group, 2010 - 2040 Census Householder Age 2010 15 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over 19,872 93,176 131,862 157,306 65,794 56,997 77,826 54,012 29,202 Total 686,047 Forecast Households 2015 2020 25,734 103,037 123,613 153,668 74,755 63,847 93,746 55,276 33,601 727,277 24,700 109,391 126,837 137,230 78,547 73,152 114,040 62,028 35,260 761,185 Source: Broward County Planning and Redevelopment Division 2025 2030 2035 2040 25,349 112,207 130,673 127,420 70,150 77,305 129,829 76,405 39,003 24,514 112,140 139,983 129,308 63,022 69,005 145,312 93,783 42,082 25,412 111,569 143,525 135,812 60,722 62,467 140,181 107,870 52,406 25,415 112,644 145,029 144,334 65,566 59,994 128,458 122,083 60,404 788,341 819,149 839,964 863,927 IV. Broward County Households by Age of Householder Inside the County’s Householders by Age Forecast Most rapid household increases occur during the current five-year period. As the baby-boomer household numbers decline from their peak, there may be an oversupply of larger family homes awaiting occupancy. Doubling of the 65 and older households while the 45 to 64 age group gradually declines. Forecasts portend housing unit growth at a more subdued pace than County experienced during nearly the entire last half century. V. Broward County Households by Household Size Household Size Distribution for Householders, by Age Broward County, 2015 through 2040 Age of Householder/PPH 15 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over 1 2 3 4 5 6 7+ Total 20.70% 22.67% 20.84% 25.93% 31.13% 37.65% 46.01% 48.92% 33.08% 34.61% 21.89% 23.66% 34.54% 46.88% 44.07% 44.02% 21.25% 19.37% 18.45% 18.22% 16.41% 9.05% 6.99% 5.53% 12.52% 13.40% 21.48% 18.51% 10.84% 3.59% 1.99% 1.22% 7.10% 6.06% 10.91% 8.55% 4.28% 1.50% 0.56% 0.24% 2.96% 2.46% 3.92% 3.18% 1.74% 0.76% 0.26% 0.06% 2.40% 1.43% 2.51% 1.95% 1.06% 0.56% 0.11% 0.01% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% Source: Browardthe County Planning and Redevelopment Division Represents average household size distribution for the County according to the identified age groups and household size for the years 2015-2040. Percentages calculated using the Census 2000 from Summary File 1 for the County. 2010 percentages were estimated from the 2000 distribution rates and calibrated to the 2010 actual distribution. Both rates were combined using a weighted average of twice the 2000 percentages and one of the 2010. V. Broward County Households by Household Size Units by Household Size, Seasonal Use, and All Other Vacant Broward County, 2010 through 2040 Persons-per-Household 1 2 3 4 5 6 7+ Units Occ. Seas. Oth. Vac. Total 197,539 212,400 214,137 236,115 111,564 92,283 42,495 16,637 11,392 112,021 90,975 41,992 16,145 10,146 686,047 55,120 719,794 53,297 69,221 53,357 810,388 826,448 223,805 235,677 250,426 263,801 114,267 90,936 41,834 16,150 10,154 115,782 90,837 41,773 16,162 10,175 747,572 55,354 774,207 57,326 55,416 57,391 858,342 888,924 2035 245,700 254,042 273,887 280,580 116,674 91,378 42,120 16,284 10,259 117,854 92,342 42,601 16,441 10,351 796,302 58,962 814,211 60,288 59,028 60,356 914,292 934,855 2040 261,009 285,668 119,527 93,715 43,177 16,635 10,447 830,178 61,470 61,540 953,188 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: Broward County Planning and Redevelopment Division. Note: Household distribution was altered to accommodate the total population forecasts prepared by BEBR. The difference between the Occupied Units of Key Findings Table 11 and Household Totals from Table 8 is less than 1%. See explanation in discussion of Table 12. the results of the distribution percentages to the 94%Displays of household growth from 2010 to 2040 is found applied in the smaller forecast households. households. This can be traced back to the growth in householders ages 75 and older, which can account for nearly all household growth beginning Contains theyear household with 2020. and housing unit information to be assigned to Broward’s TAZs. Mid-size households increases are minor and larger households decline over the forecast period. V. Broward County Households by Household Size Units by Household Size, Seasonal Use, and All Other Vacant Broward County, 2010 through 2040 Persons-per-Household 1 2 3 4 5 6 7+ Units Occ. Seas. Oth. Vac. Total 197,539 212,400 214,137 236,115 111,564 92,283 42,495 16,637 11,392 112,021 90,975 41,992 16,145 10,146 686,047 55,120 719,794 53,297 69,221 53,357 810,388 826,448 223,805 235,677 250,426 263,801 114,267 90,936 41,834 16,150 10,154 115,782 90,837 41,773 16,162 10,175 747,572 55,354 774,207 57,326 55,416 57,391 858,342 888,924 2035 245,700 254,042 273,887 280,580 116,674 91,378 42,120 16,284 10,259 117,854 92,342 42,601 16,441 10,351 796,302 58,962 814,211 60,288 59,028 60,356 914,292 934,855 2040 261,009 285,668 119,527 93,715 43,177 16,635 10,447 830,178 61,470 61,540 953,188 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: Broward County Planning and Redevelopment Division. Note: Household distribution was altered to Key Findings (continued) accommodate the total population forecasts prepared by BEBR. The difference between the Occupied Units of Table 11 and Household Totals from Table 8 is less than 1%. See explanation in discussion of Table 12. Empty-nesting baby-boom generation will impact Broward’s housing market. Whether decide to live in their current homes with extra rooms or to “downsize” to smaller homes. If enough downsize, there will be a significant demand for smaller homes and an excess of larger homes. If fewer households downsize, the impact likely would be to encourage redevelopment in more selective areas. V. Broward County Households by Household Size Population in Households, by Household Size and by Group Quarters Broward County, 2010 through 2040 Persons-per-Household 1 2 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 197,539 212,400 223,805 235,677 245,700 254,042 261,009 428,274 472,230 500,852 527,602 547,774 561,160 571,336 3 4 5 6 7+ Population Household Grp. Qtrs. Total 334,692 336,063 342,801 347,346 350,022 353,562 358,581 369,132 363,900 363,744 363,348 365,512 369,368 374,860 212,475 209,960 209,170 208,865 210,600 213,005 215,885 99,822 96,870 96,900 96,972 97,704 98,646 99,810 89,240 79,480 79,542 79,707 80,365 81,086 81,838 1,731,174 1,770,903 1,816,814 1,859,517 1,897,677 1,930,869 1,963,319 16,892 17,269 17,719 18,142 18,505 18,829 19,147 1,748,066 1,788,172 1,834,533 1,877,659 1,916,182 1,949,698 1,982,466 Source: Broward County Planning and Redevelopment Division Presents household size table from a different perspective, the population according to household size. While smaller households occupy the majority of housing units; more of the population resides in mid-size households (3-, 4-, or 5-person households), through 2020 slightly more than 50% and slightly less thereafter. **Note: Household Population = the number of 1-person households + (2 * the number of 2-person households) + (3 * the number of 3-person households) +…+ (7.83, average size of the 7+ households* the number of 7+ households) VI. Assignment of Dwelling Units, Households and Household Population to TAZs This stage of allocation occurs into the Broward County’s 2010 TAZ boundaries (953 unique geographic areas). Distributed to TAZs by a methodology that respects the individual TAZ’s unique set of selected characteristics and its capacity to accept growth. Allocation requires that each TAZ be assigned a maximum number of dwelling units. This maximum reflects the influence of the Broward County Land Use Plan (amendments and current designations) and vacant land capacity. Served as the stage in the 2012 forecasts for the input from the 2012 Population Roundtable process. Input included: 1. 2. Estimated maximums for TAZs that contain Regional Activity Centers, Local Activity Centers, Transportation Oriented Corridors or other irregular Land Use Plan designations; and Identification of TAZs for “redevelopment” since vacant residential lands are exhausted by 2025. VI. Assignment of Dwelling Units, Households and Household Population to TAZs Assignment methodology for TAZs Step 1. Determine #of households by size & vacant units required by next forecast year: Convert existing household size distribution for each TAZ to reflect anticipated countywide change distribution for coming forecast year. Step 2. Determine attractiveness of each TAZ to accept growth: Vacant Step 3. Determine household size distribution of the additional units for each TAZ: Based on unique distribution of household characteristics, land capacity, land use plan and its existing housing inventory. businesses in area, and nearby public services. Step 4. Determine preliminary total of households by size assigned to each TAZ: Matrix of percentages of future growth by household size for each TAZ. Step 5. Enforce TAZ unit maximums: TAZs exceeding maximum have excess units apportioned by household size; subtracted from the TAZ; and added into pool of households to be re-distributed. VII. Municipal Forecast of Dwelling Units, Households, and Population Arranging the TAZ forecast data into its proper jurisdiction and compiling the numbers creates the municipal forecast. Methodology for assigning TAZs to jurisdictions Step 1. Assign TAZs to local jurisdictions: 2012 municipal boundary map Step 2. Apportion TAZs among multiple jurisdictions: 2010 Census Block Step 3. Benchmark the TAZ assignments to the 2010 Census: Review Step 4. Assign Group Quarters Population: Census 2010 rate of 0.97% superimposed onto a TAZ boundary map creates a TAZ-to- jurisdiction cross reference data combined with aerial photography were used to establish the portions of the TAZ forecasts assigned to each jurisdiction compiled forecast data to see if differences greater than 1% existed. applied to total population yields group quarters Final Products of the Broward County 2014 TAZ and Municipal Forecasts Update Two Principal products of the forecasts A shapefile and series of Excel Worksheets: BasicTAZdata2014-DRAFT: Table organizing TAZ-level forecasts by Dwelling Units, Population ,and Households for 2010-2040 in 5-year increments. Muni_TAZ_2014-DRAFT: Set of tables displaying the final distribution of housing and population to Broward County's local jurisdictions by TAZ. HouseholdTAZdata2014-DRAFT: Set of tables representing TAZ -level forecasts organized by housing data. TAZ_FinalForecast2014-DRAFT: Shapefile of the file, BasicTAZdata2014-DRAFT. 2014 TAZ and Municipal Forecasts Update Report Contains all tables referenced in presentation Environmental Protection and Growth Management Department Planning and Redevelopment Division 115 South Andrews Avenue, Room 329K Fort Lauderdale, FL 33301 Broward.org/EnvironmentAndGrowth/ 954.357.6634