The Civic Orientations of Arab Publics:
Selected Findings from the Arab Barometer
• About Country: Governance (democracy, Islam)
• About Individual: Engagement (interest, trust)
Mark Tessler
University of Michigan
Arab Barometer Data
•
•
•
•
3 Waves since 2006
14 Countries (probability samples)
29 surveys (face-to-face interviews)
35,052 respondents
Country
Algeria
Bahrain
Egypt
Iraq
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Libya
Morocco
Palestine
Wave One
N=1300
5-6/2006
N=500
1-2/2009
6-7/2011
2-3/2011
12/2010
N=1196
N=1215
N=1795
N=1000
N=1200
N=1247
N=1196
N=1200
3-4/2013
6/2013
12/2012
2-3/2014
6/2013
4-5/2014
5-6/2013
12/2012
N=1200
N=1196
4-5/2013
2/2013
N=1143
6/2006
N=1195
10/2007
N=1387
11-12/2010
N=1200
N=1404
N=1538
N=1196
12/2010
1-3/2011
12/2010
9-10/2011
N=1277 11-12/2006
N=1270
5/2006
Sudan
Tunisia
14 countries
Wave Three
N=1220
3-4/2013
N=1219
N=1234
N=1188
Saudi Arabia
Yemen
Wave Two
N=1216
4-5/2011
N=717
10/2007
7 surveys, N=7,402
N=1200
2/2011
10 surveys, N=12,782
N=1200 11-12/2013
12 surveys, N=14,868
Website: Information, Reports, Data
Partners: Designing Interview Schedule
About 80 Percent in Both Waves Think
Democracy Is the Best Political System
Continuing Support during a Period of Turbulence
60
50
53
49
40
30
30
A democratic system may
have problems, yet it is
better than other political
systems (9 countries)
31
Wave
Three
20
10
13
14
4
0
Strongly Agree
Wave
Two
Agree
Disagree
6
Strongly Disagree
But Some Change in Countries that Have
Experienced Greatest Level of Turbulence
95
Agree Strongly or Agree
that Democracy Is the Best
Political System
90
90
85
86
84
83
80
83
Wave
Two
2/
2011
Wave
Three
79
75
70
76
6-7/
2011
3-4/
2013
2-3/
2011
6/
2013
9-10/
2011
2/
2013
73
11-12/
2013
65
Egypt
Iraq
Tunisia
Yemen
An Imperfect Understanding of Democracy
(as elsewhere)
There is a difference in opinion among people regarding the most important features of
democracy. If you had to choose one, which of the following features would you say is the most
important?
Second Wave
Third
Wave
The opportunity to change the government through elections.
27
26
Freedom to criticize the government.
12
13
Narrowing the gap between rich and poor.
14
18
Providing basic items (such as food, housing, and clothing) to every
individual.
Equality of political rights between citizens.
19
17
12
11
Eliminating financial and administrative corruption.
16
15
Political Process
51
50
Economic Performance
49
50
Feature of Democracy
Islam and Its Place in Politics
To what extent do you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree with each of the following
statements
1. Religious leaders (imams, preachers, priests) should not interfere in voters’ decisions in elections.
2. [Your country] would be better off if religious people hold public positions in the state.
3. Religious leaders (imams, preachers, priests) should have influence over government decisions.
4. Religious practices are private and should be separated from social and political life.
(Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Sudan, Tunisia, Yemen)
50
40
45
44
30
Percent Strongly
Agree and Agree
40
36
Wave
Two
38
33
20
Religious People Hold Public
Office
Religious Influence
Government Decisions
Not Separate Religion from
Political Life
Wave
Three
Tunisia: More than a Year
under an Islamist Government
40
20
20
4
10
22
16
0
9-10/
2011
-60
-80
14
Wave Two
Wave Three
Wave Three
2/
2013
-36
-40
-56
3
18
-20
Strongly
Agree
-40
Agree
-38
-19
Religious leaders should
have influence in
government decisions
9
0
Disagree
Wave Two
-20
Strongly
Disagree
-60
-80
-42
9-10/
2011
-36
Strogly
Agree
Agree
-32
2/
2013
-44
Strongly
Disagree
Disagree
Religious practices NOT
should be separated from
social and political life
Democracy With and Without Islam
Men of religion should have influence
over the decisions of government
Democracy, whatever its
limitations, is better than any
other political systems
Strongly Agree/
Agree
Percentage of Column
Percentage of Total
Strongly Agree
Agree
Disagree/
Strongly Disagree
(favor Islamic influence)
(not favor Islamic influence)
Democratic
with Islam
Democratic
without Islam
Wave 2
82%
Wave 3
76%
Wave 2
84%
Wave 3
83%
33%
27%
“Authoritarian”
with Islam
51%
53%
“Authoritarian”
without Islam
Percentage of Column
18%
24%
16%
17%
Percentage of Total
7%
9%
9%
11%
Disagree/
Strongly Disagree
Wave Two
Wave Three
Political System Preference
Decrease
by Country and Time Period
Increase
Democratic with
Islam
Democratic
without Islam
Authoritarian
with Islam
Authoritarian
without Islam
Algeria
20
20
65
60
7
14
8
6
Egypt
27
15
52
70
10
3
11
12
Iraq
44
30
43
46
4
10
9
14
Jordan
Lebanon
36
12
38
7
45
70
43
78
9
2
9
2
10
16
10
13
Palestine
35
31
50
50
6
9
9
10
Sudan
46
37
36
42
11
11
7
10
Tunisia
22
23
67
60
3
4
8
13
Yemen
52
36
31
37
10
14
7
13
Attitudes toward Women and Gender Equality among Respondents
Who Do and Who Do Not Favor a Political Role for Islam
Men of religion should have influence
over the decisions of government
% Supporting Gender Equality
Wave Two
Wave Three
All
S. Agree/
Agree
(favor Islamic
influence)
Disagree/
S. Disagree (not
favor Islamic
influence)
A married woman can work outside the
home
83 84
81
81
84
85
A university education is more important
for a boy than a girl
73 78
67
71
77
82
On the whole, men make better political
leaders than women
26 34
20
25
30
39
Proper Interpretation of Islam
Views of Respondents Who Favor and
Who Do Not Favor a Political Role for Islam
Islamic jurists and religious scholars often differ in
their interpretations of certain issues in Islam. To
what extent you agree or disagree with each
interpretation below?
% Supporting “progressive” interpretation
Wave Two
Wave Three
In a Muslim country, non-Muslims should
enjoy less political rights than Muslims
In Islam, women should wear modest
clothes without needing to wear the hijab
Men of religion should have influence
over the decisions of government
S. Agree/
Disagree/
Agree
S. Disagree (not
(favor Islamic
favor Islamic
All
influence)
influence)
74 70
64
58
81
77
64 62
62
57
66
66
Individual Political Engagement and Assessment
National Political Engagement:
•
•
•
Vote in last parliamentary election
Political Interest
Trust in government
Personal Civic Engagement
•
•
•
Member of civic associations
Interpersonal trust
Political efficacy
National Political Engagement
40
To what extent are you
interested in politics
35
Did
80 you vote in last
parliamentary election
40
20
No
55
58
Yes
Wave
Two
-54
Wave
Three
-42
28 27
26
28
-60
0
22
14
None
Wave
Two
Wave
Three
-26
High
-34
-30
13 12
10
5
-10
Wave
Two -20
20
-40
10
0
15
0
-20
25
20
34 34
30
60
30
Very
Interested Slightly Not at All
Wave
Three -40
How much trust
do you have in
the government
A Closer Look at Trust in Government
• Which Countries Experienced the Most Change
from Wave Two to Wave Three?
• What Are Some of the Demographics of Changing
Assessments?
• Example of Yemen
• What Are Some of the Determinants of Trust in
Government?
• Linear Regression with Wave Three Data
What Pushes Trust in Government Up or Down?
H1. Perceptions of the country’s economic situation
H2. Desire for Islam to exert political influence
H3. Degree to which Government is perceived to be democratic
Model (OLS – 9 countries)
Constant
The economic situation of our
country is good
Islam should exert political
influence
Our country is very democratic
(1-10 scale)
Female
Older
Coefficient (B) Std. Error
3.294
.063
.472
.012
Significance
.000
.000
-.116
.010
.000
.108
.004
.000
.037
.003
.019
.001
.049
.000
Dependent variable: higher trust in government
Drivers of Higher Trust in Government
Results of Linear Regression with Demographic Control Variables
Algeria
Egypt
Iraq
Jordan
Lebanon
Palestine
Sudan
Tunisia
Yemen
Economic
Situation
Perceived to be
Favorable
Opposes Islam
Exerting
Political
Influence
Country
Perceived to be
Democratic
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes Reversed
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Preview of Coming Attractions
Data
• Release Wave 3 data
• Prepare merged 3-wave dataset
Dissemination
• Increase number and coverage of short reports
• Enhance collaboration with Arab Reform Initiative
• Increase authors from the region
Wave 4
• Review Interview Schedule
• Continue fund-raising
• Explore addition of countries
Capacity-Building
• Expand support for local teams
• Increase opportunities for Arab social scientists