Survey of DFA Dairy Farmers

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Missouri Dairy Farmers’ Survey
Report compiled by:
Mario Mondelli
Anne Felts
Sarika Cardoso
Dr. David O’Brien
Contact: [email protected]
Survey Class Participants: Baatar Baljmar, Andrew Craver, Anne Felts, Keith Harris, Dianna Janashia,
Billystrom Jivetti, Ryan Koury, Robin Loehner, Mario Mondelli, Amber Moody-Dyer, Mathew Pezold,
Della Streaty Willhoit
Division of Applied Social Sciences
University of Missouri
September 30, 2010
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
Q.1: Which farmers intend to stay in business?
Q.2: Which farmers are most change-oriented?
Methodology: Sample Survey
• Sample Frame: DFA member farms in Missouri
• Stratified by Farm Size
• Surveys included in analysis: 145 (22% resp. rate)
Table 1. Proportion of Different Farm Sizes in the Sample
Universe
Mailed
Responded
(DFA member list)
(n)
10-49 cows
50-99 cows
100-199 cows
200+ cows
TOTAL
(n)
481
229
80
29
819
(n) *
220
220
80
29
549
43
61
34
7
145
Farmers with less than 10 cows were eliminated from the sample
* Based on farmers response to question: number of cows. Missing=3
Figure 1. Educational Level of the Sample
Post-Grad 2%
Bachelor’s
Degree 11%
< 12y Schooling
19%
Some College
19%
High School
Diploma 48%
Figure 2. Ethnic Background of the Sample
missing,
11%
other,
24%
German
46%
English,
19%
Figure 3. Organizational Structure
of Sample Farms
Production System
Intensive
Rot.
Graz.,
7%
Legal form
Confined
8%
Incorpor
ated,
12%
Legal
Partners
hip, 12%
PastureBased,
43%
Mixed,
39%
Sole
Propriet
orship.
63%
LLC, 5%
Comparison of Sample Characteristics and MO
and National Data
Table 2. Comparison with farms in US and
MO
Table 3. Comparison with general
population in US and MO
Dairy
Farmers
MO
(sample)
Milk cows per farm
By type of organization:
Family or individual
Partnership
Corporation
Other
Principal operator
Average age (years)
Male
Female
* Source: Census of Agriculture 2007
MO* US*
80
42 133
69%
13%
13%
5%
88% 86%
8% 8%
3% 4%
2% 1%
< 12y Schooling
High Sch. Diploma
Some College
Bachelors
Post-Grad
Dairy
General
Farmers
Population
MO
(sample) MO* US*
19% 19% 20%
48% 33% 29%
19% 27% 27%
11% 14% 16%
2% 8%
9%
* Source: 2000 Census of Population.
52.5
90%
10%
57.1 54.9
88% 70%
12% 30%
Figure 4. Regional Distribution of the Sample
NW-NC
8%
West
7%
Southwest
25%
Central
27%
South
Central
29%
East
4%
N=145
dairy farmers
Table 4. Demographic and Organizational
Characteristics by Farm Size
10-49 cows
50-99 cows
100-199 cows
200+ cows
Total
10-49 cows
50-99 cows
100-199 cows
200+ cows
Total
education
german
age
N
(attended>12y) ethnicity
(y) (mean)
(%)
(%) (mean)
43
52.3
26%
44%
61
53.8
31%
65%
34
50.9
41%
60%
7
49.4
71%
80%
145
52.5
34%
58%
confined or
pasturemixed
based or IRG Milk Production
(%) (mean) (%) (mean)
62%
38%
40,925
52%
48%
81,078
35%
65%
145,407
57%
43%
272,786
40%
60%
93,885
Church
Coumminity
involment* attachement**
(1-5) (mean)
(1-5) (mean)
3.5
3.9
3.3
3.7
4.0
4.0
2.8
4.0
3.5
3.9
Main points:
• As expected, larger size is
associated with:
higher education
Higher productivity
•For other variables, there is no
clear pattern by the size of the
farm
* Q: I'm very involved in my church ; ** Q: I feel connected to my community
Which Farmers Intend to Stay in Business?
Dependent Variable: Intent to Stay in Business
• Scale based on respondents’ level of agreement (1-5)
with the following questions:
–
–
–
–
I encourage my children to enter the dairy business
I intend for my children to take over the farm
I will still be in the dairy business in 3 years / 5 years / 10 years
I would (not) like to switch to another profession
• α Reliability = 0.72
• Mean = 3.50; Standard Dev. = 1.16
Independent Variable Scale: Management
Adaptability
• This scale is based on respondents’ level of
agreement (1-5) with each of the following
statements:
– I actively monitor & review management strategies
– I actively meet with partners to discuss mgmt strategies
– I actively meet with partners to discuss business plan
• α Reliability = 0.85
• Mean = 3.34; Standard Dev. = 1.32
Independent Variable Scale: Optimism
• This scale is based on the respondents’ assessment of
how viable (range of 1-5) will be the following in the
next 5 years:
– Missouri dairy industry
– Farmer’s local dairy industry
– Own farm
• α Reliability = 0.83
• Mean = 2.91; Standard Dev. = 0.91
o Table 5. OLS Regression of Intent to Stay in Business
on Selected Independent Variables (miss. mean subst.)
Number of obs. = 136
F( 22, 113) = 8.85
Prob > F = 0.000
R-squared = 0.463
Root MSE = .927
Coef.
Rob. Std. Err.
p<
Nonconventional knowledge (1-5)
0.09
0.09
0.34
Management Adaptability (1-5)
0.23 ***
0.09
0.01
Financial Adaptability (1-5)
-0.14
0.14
0.30
Environmental Adaptability (1-5)
0.17
0.36
0.64
Optimism (1-5)
0.49 ***
0.10
0.00
Has or plan to change prod syst
-0.36 *
0.19
0.07
Productivity (lbs/cow)
0.00
0.00
0.49
Size: Cows (heads)
0.00
0.00
0.30
Age (farmer)
-0.02 **
0.01
0.03
-0.34 *
0.19
0.07
Education (dummy=1 if attended>12years)
Operator/spouse have non-farm job (dummy)
0.22
0.19
0.23
Farmer has children (dummy)
-0.38 *
0.22
0.09
Community attachment (1-5)
0.18 **
0.09
0.04
German Ethnic Origin (dummy)
-0.08
0.19
0.66
Incorporated Firm (dummy)
0.14
0.29
0.63
Legal Partnership (dummy)
0.05
0.25
0.83
Limited Liability Corporation (dummy)
0.02
0.46
0.97
Confined prod system (dummy)
0.62 ***
0.24
0.01
Mixed prod system (dummy)
0.70 ***
0.22
0.00
Intensive Rot Grazing (dummy)
-0.34
0.31
0.27
Region South-West (dummy)
0.41 **
0.21
0.05
Region West (dummy)
0.08
0.43
0.86
_constant
1.51
0.70
0.03
Table 6. Conclusions on Question 1
A dairy farmer’s greater desire to stay in business is associated with:
• Higher Management Adaptability
• Being more optimistic about his/her farm and the dairy industry
• Less likely to change the production system
• Being younger
• Having less education
• Not having children
• Being attached to the local community
• Having a confined or mixed production system (compared to a pasture
based production system)
• Being in Southwest Missouri
Desire to stay in business is Not associated with:
• Farm Size ( number of cows)
• Productivity
Question 2: Which Farmers are Most ChangeOriented?
Dependent (Dummy) Variable: Change Production System
1 = farmer has changed dominant production system over the
past 5 years or intends to change the system over the next 5
years
• 18.1% (26 out of 144 respondents)
0 = farmer did not change his dominant production system over
the past 5 years and has no intent to change over the next 5
years
• 81.9 % (118 out of 144 respondents)
Independent Variable Scale: Non-Conventional
Knowledge
• The scale is based on responses (1-5) to the
following:
– Frequency of communication via computer
– Knowledge of pasture-based systems
– Knowledge of rotational grazing systems
• α Reliability = 0.62
• Mean = 3.19; Standard Dev. = 1.02
Table 7. Univariate Differences Between
Change and No Change Farmers
Has or plan to change production system:
N of Obs
yes
no
26
mean ttest
118
Nonconventional knowledge (Scale 1-5)
Management Adaptability (Scale 1-5)
Intent to stay in business (Scale 1-5)
optimism (Scale 1-5)
Age (farmer)
Education (dummy=1 if attended>12years)
3.6
3.5
3.6
3.2
47
46%
>
>
>
>
<
>
3.1
3.3
3.5
2.8
54
31%
**
Cows (number)
Mixed prod system (dummy)
Pasture based prod system (dummy)
Legal Partnership (dummy)
Incorporated Firm (dummy)
87
60%
19%
17%
21%
>
>
<
>
>
79
36%
49%
12%
11%
ns
*** Significant at the 1% level; ** Sig. at the 5% level; * Sig. at the 10% level
ns = non significant difference
ns
ns
*
**
ns
**
***
ns
ns
Table 8. Logistic regression Dependent Variable - Change
Production system (dummy=1 if has or plan to change the production system)
(missing values: mean substitution)
Num of obs = 136
Wald chi2(20) = 36.00
Log pseudolikelihood = -48.725
Farmer
Characteristics
Farm
Characteristics
Nonconventional knowledge (1-5)
Management Adaptability (1-5)
Financial Adaptability (1-5)
Intent to stay in business (1-5)
Optimism (1-5)
Age (farmer)
Education (dummy=1 if attended>12years)
Operator/spouse has non-farm job (dummy)
Farmer has children (dummy)
I'm very involved in my church (1-5)
Size: Cows (heads)
Productivity (lbs/cow)
Confined prod system (dummy)
Mixed prod system (dummy)
Intensive Rot Grazing (dummy)
Incorporated Firm (dummy)
Legal Partnership (dummy)
Limited Liability Corporation (dummy)
Region South-Central (dummy)
Region South-West (dummy)
Prob > chi2 = 0.015
Pseudo R2 = 0.265
Odds Ratio Rob. Std. Err. P>z
2.63 ***
0.93
0.88
0.27
0.79
0.31
0.48 **
0.15
1.70
0.69
0.95 **
0.02
1.22
0.81
2.32
1.47
0.44
0.37
0.88
0.23
0.99
0.01
1.00
0.00
9.95 **
11.63
20.17 ***
16.54
4.02
4.74
4.73 **
3.73
2.23
2.29
4.32
4.04
1.79
1.16
1.09
0.87
0.01
0.67
0.54
0.02
0.19
0.04
0.76
0.19
0.32
0.63
0.45
0.95
0.05
0.00
0.24
0.05
0.43
0.12
0.37
0.91
How to Interpret Odds Ratios (OR) in Logistic
Regression
•A farmer with one more unit of non-conventional
knowledge is 2.63 times more likely to change the
production system
• An odds ratio < 1 indicates a negative relationship
Table 9. Conclusions on Question 2
The higher propensity of a farmer to change his/her
production system is associated with:
• Higher non-conventional knowledge
• Lower propensity to stay in the dairy business
• A farm with confined or mixed production systems
(compared to pasture-based prod system)
• Being an Incorporated farm
• Being younger
Change is Not associated with:
• Size, Productivity, Education, non-farm job, Regions
Appendix – Additional Data
Descriptive statisticas (after recoding missing values)
Variable
Obs
Mean
Dev.
Min
Max
d_change_ps
d_stayinbus
e_conv_know
e_nonconv_~w
e_finan_ad~t
e_env_adapt
Has or plan to change production system
Intent to stay in business
Conventional knowledge.
Nonconventional knowledge
Financial Adaptability
Environmental Adaptability
144
140
137
139
119
125
0.2
3.5
3.3
3.2
3.0
0.3
0.4
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.3
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
5
5
5
5
1
e_mgmt_adapt
e_optimism
e_prod_sys
e_drymatg~46
e_Nfarmjob11
Management Adaptability
dairy farming production system
Specify how much dry matter grown on farm
Primary farm operator or spouse have a non-farm job
122
129
141
145
144
3.3
2.9
0.5
49.6
0.3
1.3
0.9
0.5
36.3
0.5
1
1
0
0
0
5
5
1
100
1
c1_numcows40
c1_Pdnonfam7
c2_Agepri4
c2_Levedu8
c2_Yrsfarm12
How many cows are milked daily on your farm
Paid non-family employees
Age of primary farm operator
Highest level of education attained by Primary Farm Owner
How many years has the primary farmer operator worked on farm
145
145
145
143
142
79.6
0.3
52.5
2.6
32.3
57.6
0.5
11.3
1.4
14.3
9
0
23
1
1
345
1
82
7
67
c3_involc~58
c3_connto~58
c3_german
c3_english
c4_incorp
I'm very involved in my church
I feel connected to my community
German Ethnic Origin
English Ethnic Origin
Incorporated Firm
131
127
115
115
133
3.5
3.9
0.6
0.2
0.1
1.3
1.1
0.5
0.4
0.3
1
1
0
0
0
5
5
1
1
1
c4_llc
c4_partner
c4_Ownfam6
c5_Prichild9
Limited Liability Corporation
Legal Partnership
Farm owned by a single family
Does Primary Farm operator have children
133
133
144
143
0.1
0.1
0.9
0.9
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
Farmer Demographics: Children
•
•
•
•
86% Primary Farm Operators have children
Average number of children = 2.85
61 % of children were male
51 % of children work on farm
– 39 % of those that work on farm, work full-time
Ages of children
Frequency
Under 15
105
16-25
101
26-39
109
40 +
42
Mode of Communication
Frequency of use of the following to communicate farm issues:
Mode of Communication
Mean (scale of 1-never to 5-very
often)
Email
1.98
Fax
1.94
Home phone
3.84
Cell phone
3.66
Face to face
3.93
Computer/Internet
2.39
Text Messaging
1.38
Mode of Communication (cont’d)
How often does the Primary Farm Operator use these as sources of farm
information?
Information source
Mean (scale of 1-never to 5-very often)
Other local dairy farmers
3.22
Other dairy farmers, non-local
2.48
Dairy magazines
3.43
Independent consulting nutritionist
2.09
Feed company-provided nutritionist
3.14
Consulting veterinarian
3.29
Emergency call veterinarian
2.75
Extension personnel
2.40
Extension website and publications
1.92
DTN
1.36
Cooperative communication
2.22
Involvement in Agricultural Organizations
Agricultural organization in which Frequency
PFO is involved
Missouri Dairy Association
33%
Farm Bureau
35%
Other Cooperative
198
National Corn Growers’
Association
3%
American Soybean Association
1%
28% of Primary Farm Operators reported holding leadership
positions in one or more of these agricultural organizations
All respondents were members of Dairy Farmers of America
Environmental Management
• 90% (n=108) of Respondents have not received a complaint about
environmental issues in the past 12 months
Percent of Respondents Answering that They
Have Used Each of the Following to Mitigate
Environmental Damage
% YES
Total
respondents
Water Quality
51
101
Manure
72
100
Nitro/Phosph
18
100
Emissions
Energy
12
99
Nat R Inputs
15
99
Analysis of Services used by Primary Farm
Operator
Service
Use Service
Quality (1-5)
Not interested
Legislative
20%
Communication or
Representation
3.03
55%
Health Insurance
64%
3.38
17%
Price/Cost Risk
Management
13%
3.65
60%
Banking/Financial
Services
82%
3.96
17%
Pasture Dairy
Resources
20%
3.81
59%
Estate Planning
22%
3.34
50%
Environmental
Compliance
Services
21%
3.56
52%
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