Projected Colorado Springs Self Storage Demand, 2013-2023

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Colorado Self Storage Association’s 2013 Spring Meeting & Trade Show
THK Associates, Inc.
Economic & Market Research / Land & Development Planning
Landscape Architecture / Community Planning & Design
Golf Feasibility Analysis
May 15, 2013
Colorado’s Front Range
 Approximately 4.1 Million People in 1.6 Million Households
 Of Which 2.6 Million People Employed
Colorado’s Front Range
Historical 10-Year
Annual Totals




27,700 Jobs
58,500 People
28,000 Households
Employment growth
only 7,000 employees
past 5 years
 25% of average
10-Year Projections
Annual Totals
 42,200 Jobs
 66,000 People
 26,700 Households
Colorado’s Front Range
Residential
Construction
 19,000 Total Residential
Permits Issued in 2012
 10-Year Average 22,800
 2012 Total 83% of 10Year Average
Colorado vs. National Self Storage Market
Colorado Self Storage Market vs. National Self
Storage Market, 2013
Market
National
1Texas
2Florida
3Georgia
4Washington
5Michigan
6Ohio
7New York
8Pennsylvania
9Arizona
10Tennessee
11Illinois
12Colorado
13Alabama
14Missouri
15Louisiana
Number of
Facilities
Area Square
Footage
Existing Supply
(Sq. Ft. per Person)
50,859
2,999,155,230
7.55
6,549
3,531
1,624
1,575
1,502
1,478
1,429
1409
1,319
1,314
1,285
1,257
1,249
1,131
1,110
386,194,530
208,223,070
95,767,280
92,877,750
88,572,940
87,157,660
84,268,130
83088730
77,781,430
77,486,580
75,776,450
74,125,290
73,653,530
66,695,070
65,456
15.13
11.02
9.80
13.66
8.99
7.55
4.34
6.52
12.03
12.12
5.89
14.56
15.31
11.09
14.31
Source: 2013 Self Storage Almanac and THK Associates, Inc.
VS.
Front Range Self Storage Market
Front Range Self Storage Market Overview, 2013
Denver Metro*
Colorado Springs
Northern Colorado**
Front Range
Total
394
152
91
637
Area Square Footage
20,519,967
7,068,000
4,112,511
31,700,478
Population
2,920,000
639,300
567,200
4,126,500
Households
1,160,000
242,500
215,500
1,618,000
Employment
1,915,000
367,000
350,000
2,632,000
$59,680
$57,079
$56,475
$57,745
Sq. ft. / Population
7.03
11.06
7.25
7.68
Sq. Ft./Households
17.7
29.1
19.1
19.6
Sq. Ft./Employment
10.7
19.3
11.8
12.0
Average Occupancy
85% - 90%
85% - 90%
88% - 92%
87% - 90%
60,226
449
57,376
377
43,839
350
53,814
392
Approximate Number of Facilities
Avg. Household Income
Average Facility Size
Sq. Ft.
Units
* Metro Denver is defined by Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, and Jefferson Counties
**Northern Colorado is defined by Larimer and Weld Counties
***Data not found in the 2013 Self Storage Almanac based upon selective samples
Source: Self Storage Almanac, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and THK Associates, Inc.
Front Range Self Storage Market
Front Range Self Storage Rental Rate Overview, 2013
Market
Denver/Aurora MSA*
Colorado Springs
MSA
Northern Colorado**
5x5
5x10
10x10 10x15 10x20 10x25 10x30 20x20
$48
$1.92
$75
$1.50
$120
$1.20
$140
$0.93
$165
$0.83
$180
$0.72
$200
$0.67
$250
$0.63
$40
$1.60
$60
$1.20
$95
$0.95
$120
$0.80
$135
$0.68
$155
$0.62
$170
$0.57
$200
$0.50
$35
$1.40
$50
$1.00
$75
$0.75
$90
$0.60
$105
$0.53
$120
$0.48
$135
$0.45
$155
$0.39
* Metro Denver is defined by Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, and Jefferson Counties
**Northern Colorado is defined by Larimer and Weld Counties
***Data based upon selective samples
Source: 2013 Self Storage Almanac and THK Associates, Inc.
Colorado Springs/El Paso County
 Approximately 639,300 People in 242,500 Households
 Of Which 367,000 Million People Employed
Colorado Springs/El Paso County
Employment
 10-Year Average 3,260
Jobs
 5-Year Average 340 Jobs
 2012 Added 1,500 Jobs
 2011 Added 6,300 Jobs
10-Year Projections
Annual Totals
 5,500 Jobs
 9,500 People
 4,000 Households
Colorado Springs/El Paso County
Residential
Construction
 2,620 Total Residential
Permits Issued in 2012
 2,020 or 78% for Single
Family Homes
 10-Year Residential Permit
Average 3,880
10-Year Residential
Demand
 4,420 Units Annually
 3,100 Single Family (70%)
 380 Townhome (8.5%)
 940 Multi Family (21.5%)
Colorado Springs/El Paso County
Projected Commercial
Space Demand
Industry
10-Year Annual
Average
Hot Spots/Opportunities
Office
415,000 Sq. Ft.
Industrial
471,750 Sq. Ft.
Retail
310,000 Sq. Ft.
 In-fill, Downtown and Key
I-25 Interchanges
 Student Housing
 Multi Family Rental
 Affordable Single Family
Projected Colorado Springs Self Storage Demand, 2013-2023
Year
Population
Annual
Change
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
639,324
645,160
653,250
662,660
672,340
682,290
693,000
704,040
715,410
727,140
738,680
5,720
5,836
8,090
9,410
9,680
9,950
10,710
11,040
11,370
11,730
11,540
Average
Annual Demand
(2013-2023)
9,936
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
Demanded
Annual
Additional Sq. Ft.
Demanded
Cumulative
New Sq. Ft.
Demanded
7,121,881
7,177,416
7,255,936
7,349,094
7,446,842
7,549,326
7,661,844
7,780,148
7,904,426
8,035,203
8,166,435
53,881
55,535
78,520
93,158
97,748
102,484
112,518
118,305
124,278
130,777
131,232
53,881
109,416
187,936
281,094
378,842
481,326
593,844
712,148
836,426
967,203
1,098,435
99,858
1\ Based on estimated existing supply of rentable square feet per person in 2013
2\ Assumes an average occupancy demand growth rate of 2.0% annually and
a stablized occupancy rate of 85%
Source: THK Associates, Inc.
 Average Annual Demand for
1.7 New Facilities
 Total Demand for 19.1 New
Facilities by the End of 2023
•
Based on Average Facility Size of
57,376 Sq. Ft.
Metro Denver 7-County Region
 Approximately 2.92 Million People in 1.16 Million Households
 Of Which 1.92 Million People Employed
Metro Denver 7-County Region
Employment
 10-Year Average 20,138 Jobs
 5-Year Average 8,862 Jobs
 2012 Estimates
 24,000 – 37,000 Jobs
10-Year Projections
Annual Totals
 29,000 Jobs
 45,000 People
 18,000 Households
Metro Denver 7-County Region
Residential
Construction
 14,300 Total Residential
Permits Issued in 2012
 6,200 or 43% for Single
Family Homes
 10-Year Residential Permit
Average 14,500
10-Year Residential
Demand
 18,500 Units Annually
 10,800 Single Family
(58%)
 2,700 Townhome (15%)
 5,000 Multi Family (27%)
Denver Metro Area Overview
Projected Commercial
Space Demand
Industry
10-Year Annual
Average
Office
3,570,000 Sq. Ft.
Industrial
3,340,000 Sq. Ft.
Retail
1,500,000 Sq. Ft.
Leading Sectors




Finance & Insurance
Health Care
Government
Professional & Technical
Services
Major
Announcements






Charles Schwab
Redwood Trust
Hitachi Data Systems
Tri Zetto
On Deck Capital
Cool Planet Energy Systems
Proposed FasTracks Lines
 94 Total Stops
 46 Completed
 48 Planned
Line
Estimated
Completion
# of New
Stops
US 36 BRT
2015
6
Central
2016
2
East
2016
6
Gold
2016
7
I-225
2020
8
North Metro
2020
8
Northwest
2020
7
Southeast
2020
3
Southwest
2020
1
Total
48
Denver FasTracks TOD
Development Totals as of Dec. 2012
Housing Units
24,439
Hotel Rooms
6,336
Retail Space (SF)
5.37 Million
Office Space (SF)
6.02 Million
Civic Space (SF)
2.3 Million
Education Space
(SF)
1.94 Million
Medical Space
(SF)
7.02 Million
Convention Space
(SF)
2.62 Million
 Projects That Are Complete or
Currently Under Construction
Source: RTD FasTracks
Denver In-Fill Downtown
 Downtown Denver Partnership
 72 Public & Private Sector Developments in the Past 5
Years
 6,061 Residential Units Added/Under Construction
 2.36 Million Sq. Ft. Office Space Added/Under
Construction
 2,190 Hotel Rooms Added/Under Construction
 42% of Projects Residential
New Denver Area Hospitals
 Sky Ridge – Highlands Ranch
 Parker Adventist – Parker
 Fitzsimons Campus – Aurora
 University Hospital
 Children’s Hospital
 Veteran’s Hospital
 St. Anthony Hospital at the
Federal Center – Denver
 Castle Rock Hospital at the
Meadows – Castle Rock
 Northern Hospital Cluster along
Hwy 7 & I-25 – Broomfield
 Rocky Vista Hospital – Parker
 Platte Valley Medical Center –
Brighton
 Longmont United Hospital –
Longmont
 Children’s Hospital at Highland’s
Ranch
 University North/Poudre
Projected Metro Denver Self Storage Demand, 2013-2023
Year
Population
Annual
Change
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2,918,914
2,957,160
2,997,140
3,039,380
3,083,570
3,129,780
3,177,190
3,226,310
3,276,730
3,328,490
3,381,650
37,481
38,246
39,980
42,240
44,190
46,210
47,410
49,120
50,420
51,760
53,160
Average
Annual Demand
(2013-2023)
46,274
Annual
Additional Sq. Ft.
Demanded
Cumulative
New Sq. Ft.
Demanded
245,344
255,358
272,276
293,421
313,106
333,966
349,492
369,339
386,697
404,913
424,182
1,535,504
1,790,862
2,063,138
2,356,558
2,669,664
3,003,630
3,353,122
3,722,462
4,109,158
4,514,071
4,938,254
331,645
1\ Based on estimated existing supply of rentable square feet per person in 2013
2\ Assumes an average occupancy demand growth rate of 2.0% annually and
a stabilized occupancy rate of 85%
Source: THK Associates, Inc.
 Average Annual Demand for
5.5 New Facilities
 Total Demand for 82.0 New
Facilities by the End of 2023
•
Based on Average Facility Size of
60,226 Sq. Ft.
Larimer/Weld County Region
 Approximately 567,200 People in 215,500 Households
 Of Which 350,000 People Employed
Larimer/Weld County Region
Employment
 10-Year Average 4,330
Jobs
 5-Year Average (2,600)
Jobs
 2012 Added 3,200 Jobs
 2011 Added 3,000 Jobs
10-Year Projections
Annual Totals
 7,700 Jobs
 11,500 People
 4,730 Households
Larimer/Weld County Region
Opportunities in the Niobrara Formation
 Colorado Produced a 50-Year High in Oil Production in 2012
 Major Oil Company Corridor Follows Highway 85 North of Brighton
 Major Companies Involved
 Anadarko, Noble, EOG, Chesapeake, Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker
Hughes, etc.
 Estimates Call for Approximately 1,000 Wells to be Drilled Each Year
for the Next 10 – 30 Years
Larimer/Weld County Region
Residential
Construction
 2,100 Total Residential
Permits Issued in 2012
 1,560 or 75% for Single
Family Homes
 10-Year Residential Permit
Average 4,515
10-Year Residential
Demand
 5,000 Units Annually
 3,600 Single Family (70%)
 200 Townhome (5%)
 1,200 Multi Family (25%)
Larimer/Weld County Region
Projected Commercial
Space Demand
Industry
10-Year Annual
Average
Office
607,000 Sq. Ft.
Industrial
768,000 Sq. Ft.
Retail
500,000 Sq. Ft.
Hot Spots/Opportunities
 Highway 85 Corridor
 Brighton, Fort Lupton,
Greeley





Harmony Medical Corridor
Windsor
Frederick, Firestone, Dacono
Fort Collins, Rental & In-Fill
Timnath
Projected Northern Colorado Self Storage Demand, 2013-2023
Year
Population
Annual
Change
Cumulative
Sq. Ft.
Demanded
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
567,243
574,920
585,310
595,980
606,960
618,230
629,810
641,720
653,960
666,560
679,510
7,677
10,390
10,670
10,980
11,270
11,580
11,910
12,240
12,600
12,950
13,250
4,308,255
4,382,708
4,460,695
4,542,554
4,628,255
4,718,075
4,812,301
4,911,076
5,014,789
5,123,515
5,236,985
Average
Annual Demand
(2013-2023)
11,227
Annual
Additional Sq. Ft.
Demanded
Cumulative
New Sq. Ft.
Demanded
53,933
74,452
77,988
81,859
85,701
89,820
94,227
98,774
103,713
108,726
113,470
249,677
270,196
348,184
430,043
515,744
605,563
699,790
798,565
902,278
1,011,004
1,124,473
89,333
1\ Based on estimated existing supply of rentable square feet per person in 2013
2\ Assumes an average occupancy demand growth rate of 2.0% annually and a
stabilized occupancy rate of 85%
Source: THK Associates, Inc.
 Average Annual Demand for
2.0 New Facilities
 Total Demand for 25.7 New
Facilities by the End of 2023
• Based on Average
Facility Size of 43,839
Sq. Ft.
Front Range Self Storage Hot Spots
 Denver CBD
 Union Station
 Highlands/Jefferson Park
 RidgeGate, Parker &
Castle Rock
 South Aurora
 Hwy 85 Corridor
 Brighton to Greeley
 Harmony Medical
Corridor
 Central Boulder
 Colorado Springs CBD
 Woodmen Rd/Falcon
Corridor
 Powers Blvd (Hospital
Corridor)
 Central Pueblo
 Pueblo West
Daniel M. Conway
President
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