Powerpoint slides - Lars E.O. Svensson

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Forward guidance
Lars E.O. Svensson
Web: larseosvensson.se
The RBNZ and IJCB conference
“Reflections on 25 years of Inflation Targeting”
Wellington, New Zealand,
December 1-2, 2014
Department of Economics, Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, SE-113 83 Stockholm, Sweden, www.sse.edu
1
Outline
 Forward guidance as special or normal policy?
 The Swedish experience of publishing a policy-rate
path: Success and dramatic failure
 The broader picture of Riksbank monetary policy
 The New Zealand experience of publishing an
interest-rate path: Less dramatic, monetary policy
better focused
 Conclusions
2
Forward guidance: Special or normal?
 Some info about future policy settings
• Policy rate, other policy instruments (balance sheet)
 Recently: Fed, BoC, ECB, BoE
• Special: Binding Effective Lower Bound
• Implementing more expansionary monetary policy
3
Forward guidance: Special or normal?
 For many years: RBNZ, Norges Bank, Sveriges
Riksbank, Czech NB
• Normal: Published forecast of interest rate (policy rate or
90-day path)
• RBNZ 1997-, NB 2005-, SR 2007-, CNB 2008-
 Integral part of flexible inflation targeting
• Stabilize inflation around announced inflation target and
resource utilization around long-run sustainable rate
• Forecast targeting: Set policy rate and policy-rate path such
that forecasts for inflation and resource utilization “look
good”
4
Forward guidance in form of published
policy rate path: Reasons for normal?
1. Transparency: Coherent CB forecast of target variables
requires CB forecast of instrument. Then publish this.
2. Effectiveness: Management of expectations (of the
future policy rate)
3. Informativeness: Central bank should have more info
about its future policy settings. Should be useful info for
private sector and other authorities
4. Justification: Provides a coherent way of justifying
policy choice by comparison with policy alternatives
5. Accountability: Simplifies external evaluation of policy
by comparison with policy alternatives and assessments
of tradeoffs between target variables
5
Developments of forward guidance as
something normal
Forecasts of target variables conditional on:
1. Constant policy rate
•
•
If inflation forecast above (below) target, increase (reduce)
policy rate
Inconsistencies, not credible (Leitemo, Woodford)
2. Market expectations of policy rate:
“market policy-rate path”
•
•
CB forecasts of target variables may not “look good”
CB policy-rate path may differ from market path
3. Central-bank forecast of policy rate:
“CB policy-rate path”
•
Consistent (inconsistent) if market path equal (differ) from CB
path
6
The Swedish experience of publishing a
policy-rate path
 Previously discussed by Svensson (2009, 2010) and
Woodford (2012, 2013)
 Success and failures
 Evaluate according to
(1) Predictability: Market forward rates predict policy-rate path
(2) Credibility: Market forward rates in line with (adjust towards)
policy-rate path (successful management of expectations)
 Distinguish “actual” and “intended” monetary policy
 A “credible “ policy-rate path may not necessarily be
“appropriate”
 Success: February 2009
 Failure: September 2011
7
Riksbank policy rate and Riksbank policy-rate paths
Feb 2007-Sep 2014
8
Riksbank policy rate and market policy-rate paths
Feb 2007 – Sep 2014
A brief history Feb 2007 – Sep 2014: Go
9
Success!
February 2009
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
10
Failure!
September 2011
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
11
The Swedish experience
 What was behind the discrepancy between Riksbank and
market policy-rate paths in September 2011?
 What was the broader picture of Riksbank policy?
12
Behind the discrepancy: Another
discrepancy for foreign policy rates
 September 2011: Riksbank forecast of foreign policy rates
much above market expectations of foreign policy rate
13
Behind the discrepancy: Yield curves
1.7 pp
14
Behind the discrepancy: Another
discrepancy for foreign policy rates
 A lower Riksbank forecast for foreign policy rates
would have implied a lower policy-rate path
• With unchanged policy-rate path, a forecast of stronger
krona, the inflation forecast would have shifted down and
the unemployment forecast would have shifted up
 High forecast of foreign policy rates served to shift
inflation forecast up and unemployment forecast
down, supporting high policy-rate forecast
 Resulted in Riksbank inflation forecasts biased
upwards
15
Riksbank CPI inflation forecasts 2011 and 2012
and outcome
16
Actual yield curve implied much easier
policy than intended
 Market did not believe Riksbank policy-rate path
 Market possibly understood that it would lead to too
strong a krona, which would have forced the Riksbank
to back down (this confirmed by informal discussions
with market participants)
 “Actual” MP much easier than “intended”
 “Intended” MP would have implied 5-year bond rate
1.7 pp higher
 Good for the economy that the RB policy-rate path
was not credible
17
The broader picture:
CPI inflation 1995-2014 on average below target
18
Average inflation expectations close to target 1997-2011:
Average inflation below average inflation expectations
To New Zealand
19
Average unemployment 1997-2011 about 0.8 pp higher
than if inflation had been on target
0.8 pp
Svensson (2015), “The Possible Unemployment Cost of Average Inflation Below a Credible
Target,” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2015(1).
20
Why the tightening in June/July 2010?
 Leaning against the wind because of concerns about household debt and
housing prices
 Not clearly explained June/July 2010:
 “Another factor [in relation to the policy-rate increase] is that household
indebtedness has increased significantly in recent years” (June/July
2010 press release)
 “[A]n interest rate increase was also a signal to avoid new financial
imbalances from building up and that household indebtedness ought not
to rise too much” (Governor Ingves, in June/July 2010 minutes)
 Sending a signal to households that mortgage rates would soon return to
normal
 Tradeoff w/ inflation and unemployment not admitted until op-ed by
Governor Ingves in October 2012
21
Ex ante: Riksbank and Fed forecasts June 2010
Inflation
Unemployment
 Riksbank and Fed forecasts quite similar
 Policies very different
• Fed: Keep policy rate between 0 and 0.25%, forward guidance,
prepare QE2
• Riksbank: Start raising the policy rate from 0.25 to 2% in July 2011
 Riksbank: Ex ante clearly a premature tightening
Source: Svensson, Lars E.O. (2011), “Practical Monetary Policy: Examples from Sweden
and the United States ,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2011, 289-332.
22
The leaning: Policy rates in Sweden, UK, and US;
Eonia rate in euro area
Oct 28
23
The leaning: Inflation in Sweden, euro area, UK,
and US
24
The leaning: Real policy rate in Sweden, UK, and US,
real Eonia rate in euro area
25
Ex post: Policy-rate increases from summer of 2010 led to
inflation below target and higher unemployment
(and probably a higher debt ratio)
LTV cap
Source: Svensson (2013), “Unemployment and monetary policy – update for the year 2013,”
Svensson (2013), “Leaning against the wind increase (not reduces) the household debt-to-GDP ratio”,
posts on larseosvensson.se.
Cont.
26
Unemployment in Sweden and New Zealand
27
Riksbank’s case for leaning against the wind
 Higher debt could imply (1) a higher probability of a future
crisis, or (2) a deeper future crisis if it occurs
 Hence, a tradeoff between (a) tighter policy now with lower
debt but worse macro outcome now and (b) easier policy
now with more debt but worse expected future macro
outcome
 Worse outcome now is an insurance premium worth paying
 Is that true?
 The answer can be found in the Riksbank’s own boxes in
MPR of July 2013 and February 2014, plus Schularick and
Taylor (2012) and Flodén (2014)
 This involves putting numbers on the cost and benefit of
leaning
28
Cost of 1 pp higher policy rate:
0.5 pp higher unemployment rate
Source: MPR July 2013, chapt. 2; Svensson, post on
larseosvensson.se, March 31, 2014.
29
Benefit (1) of 1 pp higher policy rate:
Lower probability of a crisis
 Schularick & Taylor (2012):
5 % lower real debt in 5 yrs
implies 0.4 pp lower probability
of crisis
(average probability of crises
about 4 %)
 Riksbank, MPR Feb 2014, box:
 1 pp higher policy rate leads to 0.25 %
lower real debt in 5 years
 Lowers probability of crises by
0.25*0.4/5 = 0.02 pp
 Assume 5 pp higher unemployment in
crisis (Riksbank crisis scenario, MPR
July 2013, box)
 Benefit (1):
Expected lower future unemployment:
0.0002*5 = 0.001 pp
 Cost:
Higher unemployment rate now:
0.5 pp
Source: Svensson, post on larseosvensson.se, March 31, 2014.
30
Benefit (2) of 1 pp higher policy rate:
Smaller increase in unemployment if crisis
 Flodén (2014): 1 pp lower debt
ratio may imply 0.02 pp smaller
increase in unemployment rate in
crisis
 Riksbank MPR Feb 2014, box:
 1 pp higher policy rate leads to 0.44
pp lower debt ratio in 5 yrs
 Smaller increase in unemployment in
crisis:
0.44*0.02 = 0.009 pp
 With probability of crisis as high as 10
%, divide by 10 (Shularick & Taylor:
4 %)
 Benefit (2):
Expected lower future unemployment:
0.0009 pp
 Cost:
Higher unemployment now: 0.5 pp
Source: Svensson, post on larseosvensson.se, March 31, 2014.
31
Summarize cost and benefit of 1 pp higher policy rate
Should have been > 1!
 Riksbank’s case does not stand up to scrutiny
32
The New Zealand experience of publishing an
interest-rate path
 Longest experience, starting in June 1997
 Previously examined by Archer (2005), Moessner and
Nelson (2008), Anderson and Hofman (2009), Detmers
and Nautz (2012), Bergstrom and Karagedikli (2013)
 Less dramatic than the Swedish experience
 RBNZ monetary policy better focused
33
RBNZ policy rate, 90-day rate and
RBNZ 90-day paths Mar 1999 – Sep 2014
34
RBNZ policy rate and market policy-rate paths
Mar 2004 – Sep 2014
35
RBNZ monetary policy: The broader picture
36
RBNZ monetary policy: The broader picture
Inflation deviation from target midpoint
37
Average inflation expectations equal average
inflation: No increase in average unemployment
To Sweden
38
Unemployment in Sweden and New Zealand
New Zealand: A brief history 2004Q1-2014Q3: Go
39
Success: March 2005
2005Q1
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
40
Success: March 2009
2009Q1
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
41
Actual policy tighter than intended: Sep 2009
2009Q3
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
42
Dec 2011: Actual policy easier than intended
2011Q4
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
43
March 2012: Actual policy follows market
2012Q1
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
44
Conclusions
 Swedish experience much more dramatic, and special
 Leaning against the wind: A high policy-rate path got
priority over inflation and resource utilization
 Case of “wag the dog”
 New Zealand experience much less dramatic
 Policy better focused on traditional goals
 A few cases of actual policy tighter/easier than intended
 Market sometimes ahead of RBNZ
 Sometimes problems with transparency, effectiveness,
informativeness, justification, and accountability
 Keep publishing policy-rate paths
45
46
History: Sweden
February 2007
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
47
June 2007
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
48
October 2007
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
49
December 2007
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
50
February 2008
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
51
April 2008
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
52
July 2008
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
53
September 2008
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
54
8 October 2008
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
55
23 October 2008
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
56
December 2008
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
57
February 2009
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
58
April 2009
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
59
July 2009
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
60
September 2009
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
61
October 2009
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
62
December 2009
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
63
February 2010
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
64
April 2010
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
65
July 2010
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
66
September 2010
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
67
October 2010
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
68
December 2010
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
69
February 2011
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
70
April 2011
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
71
July 2011
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
72
September 2011
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
73
October 2011
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
74
December 2011
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
75
February 2012
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
76
April 2012
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
77
July 2012
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
78
September 2012
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
79
October 2012
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
80
December 2012
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
81
February 2013
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
82
April 2013
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
83
July 2013
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
84
September 2013
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
85
October 2013
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
86
December 2013
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
87
February 2014
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
88
April 2014
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
89
July 2014
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
90
September 2014
Repo Rate
Old repo-rate path 5
New repo-rate path
Day before
4
After announcement
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
0
2016
Back
91
92
92
History: New Zealand 2004Q1- 2014Q3
2004Q1
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
93
2004Q2
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
94
2004Q3
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
95
2004Q4
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
96
2005Q1
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
97
2005Q2
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
98
2005Q3
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
99
2005Q4
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
100
2006Q1
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
101
2006Q2
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
102
2006Q3
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
103
2006Q4
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
104
2007Q1
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
105
2007Q2
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
106
2007Q3
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
107
2007Q4
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
108
2008Q1
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
109
2008Q2
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
110
2008Q3
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
111
2008Q4
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
112
2009Q1
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
113
2009Q2
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
114
2009Q3
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
115
2009Q4
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
116
2010Q1
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
117
2010Q2
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
118
2010Q3
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
119
2010Q4
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
120
2011Q1
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
121
2011Q2
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
122
2011Q3
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
123
2011Q4
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
124
2012Q1
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
125
2012Q2
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
126
2012Q3
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
127
2012Q4
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
128
2013Q1
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
129
2013Q2
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
130
2013Q3
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
131
2013Q4
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
132
2014Q1
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
133
2014Q2
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2
134
2014Q3
9
6
9
Official Cash Rate
90-day rate
8
Old 90-day path
New 90-day path
7
Before announcement
After announcement 6
5
5
4
4
3
3
8
7
2
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Back
2
135
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