Trade Implications
of the EU-US TTIP
for Neighboring Countries
Alan V. Deardorff
University of Michigan
For presentation at Stanford
February 20, 2014
www.fordschool.umich.edu
The Trans-Atlantic Trade and
Investment Partnership (TTIP)
• Currently being negotiated between the
European Union and the United States
– Likely to include:
• Free trade agreement (FTA)
• Removal of “behind the border” barriers to trade and
investment
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• My focus here:
– Trade effects on neighboring countries
– Many of these have FTAs with the EU and/or the
US
– How will TTIP enhance or undermine the
benefits to them of these arrangements?
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• The neighbors are small, and most are very
small
– They will matter little, economically to the EU
and US
– But they could be important politically
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Figure 3
Shares of GDP (@PPP, 2012)
for EU, US, & Neighbor Groups
N.
Amer
10%Barcelona Proc
CEFTA
0%
4% E. Eur
4%
EU
39%
EFTA
2%
US
41%
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My Issue: How will TTIP affect the
trade of its Neighbors?
• Why this is of interest:
– TTIP is large, both geographically and economically
– TTIP overlaps with NAFTA and other FTAs
• It’s true (and important!) that TTIP will extend
well beyond trade and trade barriers (tariffs &
NTBs) to include many other issues
– Some trade related
– Some domestic
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My Issue: How will TTIP affect the
trade of its Neighbors?
• But I will focus on trade and on explicit trade
barriers such as tariffs?
• Why?
– These are probably least important for the EU ad US
themselves, as their tariffs are already low
– But they are most important for the neighbors, who
will be little affected by things like harmonization of
regulations between EU and US
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Outline
• Description of TTIP
• Overlaps of TTIP with other FTAs
• Major trading partners of TTIP and its
neighbors
• Effects of TTIP on neighbors by economy
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TTIP
• Free Trade Area (FTA)
– Zero tariffs on all goods and services trade
between EU and US
– No change in tariffs on imports from outside;
thus mostly unequal tariffs
– Rules of Origin (ROOs)
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TTIP
• Areas that TTIP is set to cover…
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
market access for agricultural and industrial goods,
government procurement,
investment,
Most important
energy and raw materials,
for EU & US
regulatory issues,
sanitary and phytosanitary measures,
services,
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TTIP
• … and more:
– intellectual property rights,
– sustainable development,
– small- and medium-sized enterprises,
– dispute settlement,
– competition,
– customs/trade facilitation,
– state-owned enterprises.
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Overlap of TPP with AFTA
and other FTAs
• TTIP overlap
– EU
• FTAs with EFTA (& European Economic Area on services)
• FTAs with members of the Barcelona Process (N. Africa &
Middle East)
• Several FTAs with members of CEFTA (Central Europe
Free Trade Area)
– US
• NAFTA (North American Free Trade Area)
• FTAs with several (not all) of Barcelona Process
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E = Economic Integration Agreement
f = FTA
C = Customs Union
www.fordschool.umich.edu
Figure 4: Existing FTAs & EIAs
15
Overlap of TTIP with other FTAs
• Messages:
– EU and US are already heavily linked to their
neighbors by existing FTAs:
• Most are both FTAs and Economic Integration
Agreements (EIAs) on services .
• Of 26 countries and country groups that I’ve selected
as neighbors
– EU has FTA or EIA with all but 6
– US has FTA or EIA with 7
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Overlap of TTIP with other FTAs
• The Message:
– TTIP should not be understood in the same way
that both the original EU and NAFTA were
understood, as arrangements among countries
that had no other prior arrangements
– TTIP is integration between countries that are
already heavily integrated with others
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Trade Effects of TTIP
• I’ll focus mainly on the largest trade flows
– Top-five partners for exports
– Top-five partners for imports
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Exports from
row to column
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Figure 5
Top Five Destinations for Exports
for EU, US, and Neighboring Economies
19
Imports to row
from column
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Figure 6
Top Five Origins for Imports
for EU, US, and Neighboring Economies
20
Trade Effects of TTIP
• Three main effects
– Trade creation: Import from partner what was
previously produced at home
– Trade diversion: Import from partner what was
previously imported from 3rd country
– Reversal of trade diversion: Import from new
partner what had been diverted to partner in
prior FTA (“trade un-diversion”? “trade
reversion”? “counter trade diversion”?)
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Trade Effects of FTAs
• Trade Creation: Import from partner what
you previously produced yourself
– Beneficial to partner, which exports
– Beneficial to importing country as a whole
– But harmful to import-competing industry in
importing country
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Trade Effects of FTAs
• Trade Diversion: Import from partner what
you previously imported from an outside
country
– Harmful to outside country
– Harmless to import-competing industry in
importing country (there is none)
– Harmful to importing country as whole, as it pays
more for imports
– Beneficial to the partner exporting country
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B
D
A
C
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(Sample
Countries)
(US)
(EU)
B
D
A
C
(Egypt)
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(Ukraine)
Trade Diversion
Hurts A
Helps C
Hurts B (!)
B
D
A
C
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Trade Effects of FTAs
• Additional effect if a member already has an
FTA with an outside country:
– Reversal of trade diversion: Imports that were
diverted from the new partner by the 1st FTA revert
to the new partner with the 2nd FTA
– This is a form of trade diversion
• Harmful to the country diverted from (which had
benefited from 1st FTA’s trade diversion)
• But beneficial to the importing country – it gets back to
cheap imports
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B
D
A
C
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Reversal
of
(TTIP)
Trade Diversion
Helps A
Hurts C
Helps B
B
D
A
More Trade
Diversion
Helps B
Hurts A
Hurts C (&D)
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C
Trade Effects of TTIP
• I now work through the trade effects on
individual countries and groups of countries
• Discussion is based on the presence and
absence of FTAs in Figure 4 covering the
major trade flows indicated in Figures 5 & 6
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Exports Switzerland
Imports Switzerland
FTAs
Switzerland
E e
M m
f
E
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E
f
f
f
f
f
E
f
f
f
f
f
f
Barcelona Process
N Amer
f
f
India
J a pa n
N Amer
India
f
m
f
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Barcelona Process
f
India
co
C a r ri b
.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
J a pa n
Mexi
N Amer
Japan
co
f
C a r ri
da
Mexi
ia
C a na
k&G
a za
n
Leban
on
M o ro
cco
W Bn
k&G
a za
Syria
T u ni s
ia
C a na
da
Jorda
Israe
l
Barcelona Process
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
f
T u ni s
Syria
f
Tunis
ia
f
k&G
az a
cco
f
Syria
W Bn
f
W Bn
M o ro
on
n
Leban
Jorda
f
cco
f
Moro
E Eur
f
on
f
f
Leban
E
Israe
l
E Eur
f
Jorda
n
f
f
l
CEFTA
E
Israe
us
Turke
y
U k ra i
ne
Alger
ia
Egypt
Belar
E Eur
Egyp
t
f
e
Alger
ia
f
f
Ukra
in
f
Turke
y
f
Turke
y
U k ra i
ne
Alger
ia
Eg y p
t
CEFTA
us
f
Belar
f
s
ay
erlan
d
Alb a n
ia
Bo s &
Herz
Koso
vo
M a ce
donia
M o ld
ov a
M o nt
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
S w i tz
d
CEFTA
Belar
u
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
donia
f
Mold
f
Mace
vo
EFTA
Herz
E
Ko s o
EFTA
a
E
Bos &
erlan
d
Alb a n
ia
Bo s &
Herz
Koso
vo
M a ce
donia
M o ld
ov a
M o nt
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
ay
N o rw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Alban
i
E
rland
S w i tz
d
e
m
E
Switz
e
ay
N o rw
Icelan
E e
M m
E
Norw
d
E e
M m
E
Icelan
Exports Norway
Imports Norway
FTAs
Norway
US
EU
Exports Iceland
Imports Iceland
FTAs
Iceland
US
EU
• EFTA Countries: Iceland, Norway, Switzerland
Other
e
m
E
Other
e e
m m
E
Other
e e
m m
E
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Exports Iceland
Imports Iceland
FTAs
Iceland
E e
M m
E
e
m
E
India
co
C a r ri b
.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
J a pa n
Other
Mexi
n
Leban
on
M o ro
cco
W Bn
k&G
a za
Syria
T u ni s
ia
C a na
da
N Amer
Jorda
Israe
l
us
Turke
y
U k ra i
ne
Alger
ia
Egypt
Barcelona Process
Belar
erlan
d
Alb a n
ia
Bo s &
Herz
Koso
vo
M a ce
donia
M o ld
ov a
M o nt
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
E Eur
S w i tz
ay
CEFTA
N o rw
Icelan
US
EU
d
EFTA
e
m
E
f
f
f
f
f
E
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
E
• EFTA Countries: Iceland, Norway, Switzerland
– Iceland (above) is typical
– These countries share an EIA among themselves
and at least FTAs with the EU, but not with US
– They have the EU as their major export destination
and import origin
– They also trade significantly with the US
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Exports Iceland
Imports Iceland
FTAs
Iceland
E e
M m
E
e
m
E
India
co
C a r ri b
.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
J a pa n
Other
Mexi
n
Leban
on
M o ro
cco
W Bn
k&G
a za
Syria
T u ni s
ia
C a na
da
N Amer
Jorda
Israe
l
us
Turke
y
U k ra i
ne
Alger
ia
Egypt
Barcelona Process
Belar
erlan
d
Alb a n
ia
Bo s &
Herz
Koso
vo
M a ce
donia
M o ld
ov a
M o nt
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
E Eur
S w i tz
ay
CEFTA
N o rw
Icelan
US
EU
d
EFTA
e
m
E
f
f
f
f
f
E
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
E
• EFTA Countries: Iceland, Norway, Switzerland
– They do not trade significantly with any of the other
TTIP neighbors
– Norway and Switzerland do trade significantly with
China and Japan, Iceland exports to Russia and imports
from China
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Exports Iceland
Imports Iceland
FTAs
Iceland
E e
M m
E
e
m
E
India
co
C a r ri b
.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
J a pa n
Other
Mexi
n
Leban
on
M o ro
cco
W Bn
k&G
a za
Syria
T u ni s
ia
C a na
da
N Amer
Jorda
Israe
l
us
Turke
y
U k ra i
ne
Alger
ia
Egypt
Barcelona Process
Belar
erlan
d
Alb a n
ia
Bo s &
Herz
Koso
vo
M a ce
donia
M o ld
ov a
M o nt
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
E Eur
S w i tz
ay
CEFTA
N o rw
Icelan
US
EU
d
EFTA
e
m
E
f
f
f
f
f
E
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
E
• EFTA Countries: Iceland, Norway, Switzerland
– Their FTAs with the EU will have caused some trade
diversion away from the US. This will be reversed by
TTIP
• That is economically beneficial for EU
• But painful for industries in EFTA that exported to EU only
because of the trade preference vis a vis the US
– They also suffer from conventional trade diversion:
• Their exports to US must now compete with tariff-free exports
of the EU
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Exports Iceland
Imports Iceland
FTAs
Iceland
E e
M m
E
e
m
E
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ay
d
E
f
f
f
f
f
E
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
N Amer
India
co
C a r ri b
.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
J a pa n
Barcelona Process
Mexi
n
Leban
on
M o ro
cco
W Bn
k&G
a za
Syria
T u ni s
ia
C a na
da
Jorda
E Eur
Israe
l
us
Turke
y
U k ra i
ne
Alger
ia
Egypt
CEFTA
Belar
erlan
d
Alb a n
ia
Bo s &
Herz
Koso
vo
M a ce
donia
M o ld
ov a
M o nt
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
S w i tz
N o rw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
e
E
m
• EFTA Countries: Iceland, Norway, Switzerland
– Conclusion: EFTA countries lose from TTIP
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• CEFTA Countries
– 5 of them have FTAs with the EU:
•
•
•
•
•
Albania,
Bosnia & Herzegovina,
Macedonia,
Montenegro,
Serbia
– 2 do not:
• Kosovo
• Moldova
• I’ll look at the two groups separately
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• CEFTA Countries: Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina,
Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia
Exports Albania
Imports Albania
FTAs
Albania
E
M
E
Exports Bos & Herz
Imports Bos & Herz
FTAs
Bos & Herz
E
M
f
Exports Macedonia
Imports Macedonia
FTAs
Macedonia
E
M
E
Exports Montenegro E
Imports Montenegro M
FTAs
Montenegro E
Exports Serbia
Imports Serbia
FTAs
Serbia
E
M
E
e
f
f
m
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
e
m
f
e
f
e
m
f
f
e
m
f
f
e
f
f
f
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f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
e
m
f
f
e
m
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
e
m
f
f
e
f
India
Japan
Other
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Tunis
ia
k&G
az a
Syria
cco
W Bn
on
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
N Amer
e
m
m m
f
m
f
e
m m
f
e
m
f
e
f
Ukra
in
Belar
u
e
m
f
e
f
Barcelona Process
s
Turke
y
E Eur
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
CEFTA
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
d
EFTA
E
e
m m
f
37
Exports Albania
Imports Albania
FTAs
Albania
E
M
E
e
f
f
m
f
f
f
f
f
f
e
m
f
India
Japan
Other
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Tunis
ia
k&G
az a
Syria
cco
W Bn
Moro
on
N Amer
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
Ukra
in
Belar
u
e
m
f
e
Alger
ia
Barcelona Process
s
Turke
y
E Eur
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
CEFTA
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
d
EFTA
e
m
• CEFTA Countries (5 of them): Albania, Bosnia
& Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia
– Albania (above) is typical
– These countries share an FTA among themselves
and at least FTAs with the EU, but not with US
– They have the EU as their major export destination
and import origin
– They do not trade significantly with the US
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Exports Albania
Imports Albania
FTAs
Albania
E
M
E
e
f
f
m
f
f
f
f
f
f
e
m
f
India
Japan
Other
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Tunis
ia
k&G
az a
Syria
cco
W Bn
Moro
on
N Amer
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
Ukra
in
Belar
u
e
m
f
e
Alger
ia
Barcelona Process
s
Turke
y
E Eur
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
CEFTA
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
d
EFTA
e
m
• CEFTA Countries (5 of them): Albania, Bosnia
& Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia
– Some trade significantly with others in the group,
as well as with Turkey.
– But they don’t trade much with other TTIP
neighbors.
– They do trade significantly with China and some of
them import significantly from Russia
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Exports Albania
Imports Albania
FTAs
Albania
E
M
E
e
f
f
m
f
f
f
f
f
f
e
m
f
India
Japan
Other
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Tunis
ia
k&G
az a
Syria
cco
W Bn
Moro
on
N Amer
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
Ukra
in
Belar
u
e
m
f
e
Alger
ia
Barcelona Process
s
Turke
y
E Eur
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
CEFTA
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
d
EFTA
e
m
• CEFTA Countries (5 of them): Albania, Bosnia &
Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia
– Because of their FTAs with the EU and not with the US,
the effects of TTIP on them will be similar to those on
the EFTA countries, discussed above.
– Conclusion: They will be hurt by TTIP
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Exports Moldova
Imports Moldova
FTAs
Moldova
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
f
f
f
f
E
M
f
f
e
e e
m m
f
f
k&G
az a
cco
on
k&G
az a
cco
on
N Amer
Other
India
f
India
I don’t have trade data for Kosovo.
Japan
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
N Amer
Japan
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Barcelona Process
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
Barcelona Process
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
Jorda
n
E Eur
l
CEFTA
Israe
f
Egyp
t
f
Belar
u
E Eur
Alger
ia
f
e
f
Ukra
in
f
Turke
y
EFTA
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
K os o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
ay
d
CEFTA
s
Exports Kosovo
Imports Kosovo
FTAs
Kosovo
Switz
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
• CEFTA Countries: Kosovo, Moldova
Other
e
m m
41
Exports Moldova
Imports Moldova
FTAs
Moldova
E
M
f
f
f
f
f
f
e e
m m
f
India
Japan
Other
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Tunis
ia
k&G
az a
Syria
cco
W Bn
Moro
on
N Amer
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
Ukra
in
Belar
u
e
f
Barcelona Process
s
Turke
y
E Eur
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
CEFTA
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
d
EFTA
e
m m
• CEFTA Countries (2 of them): Kosovo, Moldova (I
don’t have trade data for Kosovo)
– These two countries have FTA only with the other
CEFTA countries, but not with EU or US
– Their trade (at least that of Moldova) is largest with the
EU, but significant also with E. Europe and Russia
– As complete outsiders of TTIP who depend greatly on
trade with the EU, they will lose due to trade diversion.
www.fordschool.umich.edu
42
Exports Ukraine
Imports Ukraine
FTAs
Ukraine
E
www.fordschool.umich.edu
E
E
f
e
m m
f
m
e
e
l
f
Barcelona Process
k&G
az a
cco
on
e
m m
f
N Amer
Other
India
N Amer
India
e
m
Japan
k&G
az a
cco
on
India
Japan
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
Ukra
in
N Amer
Japan
Barcelona Process
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
Alger
ia
e
s
Turke
y
Belar
u
Barcelona Process
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
f
Tunis
ia
k&G
az a
f
Syria
cco
on
f
W Bn
Moro
Leban
E Eur
f
Jorda
n
CEFTA
f
l
f
Israe
f
Egyp
t
f
Ukra
in
d
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
E Eur
Alger
ia
f
E Eur
e
EFTA
f
Turke
y
E
m m
Ukra
in
f
Turke
y
CEFTA
s
EFTA
Belar
u
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
K os o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
ay
d
CEFTA
s
f
Switz
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Belar
u
f
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
d
E
M m
C
Icelan
Exports Turkey
Imports Turkey
FTAs
Turkey
US
EU
Exports Belarus
Imports Belarus
FTAs
Belarus
US
EU
• Eastern Europe: Belarus, Turkey, Ukraine
Other
e
M m
f
Other
E
M m
E
43
Exports Belarus
Imports Belarus
FTAs
Belarus
E
m m
e
m
India
Japan
Other
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Tunis
ia
k&G
az a
Syria
cco
W Bn
Moro
on
N Amer
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
Barcelona Process
Ukra
in
Belar
u
s
Turke
y
E Eur
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
CEFTA
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
d
EFTA
e
M m
f
• Eastern Europe: Belarus, Ukraine
– These two countries export significantly to the EU and
import also from the US. But their trade otherwise is
with each other and with Russia
– They are in hardly any FTAs
– As outsiders to TTIP with export interest in the EU, they
will lose from trade diversion
www.fordschool.umich.edu
44
India
Japan
Other
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Tunis
ia
k&G
az a
Syria
cco
W Bn
Moro
on
N Amer
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
Barcelona Process
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
Belar
u
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
K os o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
E Eur
Switz
Norw
d
E
M m
C
Icelan
US
EU
Exports Turkey
Imports Turkey
FTAs
Turkey
CEFTA
ay
EFTA
e
m m
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
• Turkey
– Turkey is a very special case, as it has a customs union
with the EU and therefore, of necessity, shares the EU’s
FTAs
– With its EU customs union, Turkey shares the EU’s
external tariffs, which presumably will include its zero
tariffs on imports from the US under TTIP
– But Turkey is not, currently, a party to the TTIP
negotiations and therefore will not benefit from
reduced US tariffs on its exports
www.fordschool.umich.edu
45
India
Japan
Other
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Tunis
ia
k&G
az a
Syria
cco
W Bn
Moro
on
N Amer
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
Barcelona Process
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
Belar
u
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
K os o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
E Eur
Switz
Norw
d
E
M m
C
Icelan
US
EU
Exports Turkey
Imports Turkey
FTAs
Turkey
CEFTA
ay
EFTA
e
m m
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
• Turkey
– Turkey will
• Gain from reversal of its own trade diversion favoring the EU
• Lose from reversal of the EU’s trade diversion favoring Turkey
• Since its exporters will continue to face US tariffs, it will also lose
from new trade diversion, as the US buys from the EU instead of
from Turkey
– Conclusion: Turkey is most likely to lose from TTIP
– It could gain if it were included as part of it.
www.fordschool.umich.edu
46
• Barcelona Process Countries:
– All have FTAs with the EU
– 5 have no trade agreement with the US
•
•
•
•
•
Algeria,
Egypt,
Lebanon,
Syria,
Tunisia
– 3 do have either FTA or EIA with US:
• Israel,
• Jordan,
• Morocco
– (I’m ignoring the West Bank & Gaza, for which I have no
trade data)
• I’ll look at the two groups separately
www.fordschool.umich.edu
47
• Barcelona Process Countries: Algeria, Egypt,
Lebanon, Syria, Tunisia
Exports Algeria
Imports Algeria
FTAs
Algeria
E e
M m
f
e
m
Exports Egypt
Imports Egypt
FTAs
Egypt
E e
M m
f
e
Exports Lebanon
Imports Lebanon
FTAs
Lebanon
e
M m
f
Exports Syria
Imports Syria
FTAs
Syria
E
M
f
e
m m
f
Exports Tunisia
Imports Tunisia
FTAs
Tunisia
E e
M m
f
m
f
f
f
India
Japan
e
m
m
f
Other
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Tunis
ia
k&G
az a
Syria
cco
W Bn
Moro
on
N Amer
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
Ukra
in
e
Alger
ia
Barcelona Process
s
Turke
y
E Eur
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
CEFTA
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
d
EFTA
m m
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
E
m
f
f
m
f
f
m
f
e
m m
f
f
f
e
f
www.fordschool.umich.edu
f
f
f
f
e
m m
f
f
f
f
f
48
India
f
Japan
f
Other
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Tunis
ia
k&G
az a
f
Syria
f
W Bn
cco
N Amer
on
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
Barcelona Process
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
E Eur
Moro
E e
M m
f
CEFTA
Leban
Exports Egypt
Imports Egypt
FTAs
Egypt
US
EU
d
EFTA
e
m
f
f
f
f
m m
f
• Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Tunisia
– Egypt (above) is somewhat representative of
these 5 countries
– They have FTAs with the EU but not with the US
– They trade most with the EU, but also
significantly with the US
– Like others considered above, they stand to lose
from TTIP due to trade diversion
www.fordschool.umich.edu
49
Exports Morocco
Imports Morocco
FTAs
Morocco
E e
M m
f E
f
www.fordschool.umich.edu
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
e
m
N Amer
f
Barcelona Process
N Amer
e
India
f
Japan
Barcelona Process
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
m
f
India
k&G
az a
cco
on
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
k&G
az a
cco
on
India
Japan
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
Ukra
in
N Amer
Japan
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
Alger
ia
e
s
Turke
y
Belar
u
Barcelona Process
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
f
Tunis
ia
k&G
az a
f
Syria
cco
f
W Bn
on
m
f
Moro
Leban
Jorda
n
l
E Eur
Israe
f
Egyp
t
f
Alger
ia
CEFTA
E Eur
Ukra
in
m
f
e
EFTA
E Eur
Ukra
in
f
Turke
y
CEFTA
s
EFTA
Belar
u
f
Turke
y
f
CEFTA
s
d
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Belar
u
d
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
f
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
e E
M m
f E
Norw
d
e E
M m
f f
Icelan
Exports Jordan
Imports Jordan
FTAs
Jordan
US
EU
Exports Israel
Imports Israel
FTAs
Israel
US
EU
• Barcelona Process Countries: Israel, Jordan,
Morocco
Other
e
f
Other
m
e
f
Other
m m
e
f
50
Exports Israel
Imports Israel
FTAs
Israel
e E
M m
f f
f
f
m
f
m
f
e
m
f
India
Japan
Other
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Tunis
ia
k&G
az a
Syria
cco
W Bn
Moro
on
N Amer
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
Ukra
in
e
Alger
ia
Barcelona Process
s
Turke
y
E Eur
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
CEFTA
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
d
EFTA
e
f
• Israel, Jordan, and Morocco
– These are unique among the countries
considered so far, in that they have FTAs with
both the EU and US
– To the extent that their significant exports to
both were diverted from direct EU-US trade, this
advantage will be lost with TTIP
– They stand to lose more than most
www.fordschool.umich.edu
51
Exports Mexico
Imports Mexico
FTAs
Mexico
e E
m M
E E E
E
www.fordschool.umich.edu
E
f
k&G
az a
cco
on
f
e
m
E
N Amer
e
E
India
k&G
az a
cco
on
India
Japan
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
N Amer
Japan
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Barcelona Process
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
Barcelona Process
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
f
Jorda
n
l
f
Israe
Egyp
t
Alger
ia
E Eur
e
CEFTA
E Eur
Ukra
in
EFTA
Turke
y
f
Belar
u
CEFTA
s
d
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
d
e E
m M
E f
Norw
Icelan
Exports Canada
Imports Canada
FTAs
Canada
US
EU
• The NAFTA Countries
Other
e e
m m
Other
e
m m
E
52
Exports Mexico
Imports Mexico
FTAs
Mexico
e E
m M
E E E
e
E
E
f
E
India
Japan
Other
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Tunis
ia
k&G
az a
Syria
cco
W Bn
Moro
on
N Amer
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
Barcelona Process
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
E Eur
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
CEFTA
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
d
EFTA
e
m m
E
• Canada and Mexico
– The only notable difference between these two
is the absence of an FTA between the EU and
Canada, and this has now been announced
– Thus, like Israel, etc. above, these countries have
FTAs with both the EU and the US, and they
stand to lose when those gain equally
preferential access to the other.
www.fordschool.umich.edu
53
A Final Word on Rules of Origin
• FTAs (unlike customs unions) necessarily
have rules of origin
• With a complex web of FTAs, expanding
with TTIP, an important issue is “cumulation
of ROOs”
– Do imported inputs from third countries count
as originating within the FTA?
www.fordschool.umich.edu
54
A Final Word on Rules of Origin
• The US favors “bilateral cumulation,” under
which the answer is NO.
– This limits the extent to which the FTA liberalizes
trade, since much trade may still be subject to
tariffs
– Worse, firms may switch to higher cost inputs
within the FTA in order to qualify under the ROO
– This can mean that a web of FTAs can be worse
than none
www.fordschool.umich.edu
55
A Final Word on Rules of Origin
• The EU uses “diagonal cumulation” for the
countries of the Barcelona Process.
– Thus products assembled in, say, Morocco with
inputs from, say, Tunisia will still qualify for
tariff-free entry into the EU
• Were this extended to all of the EU and US
FTA partners, the effects of TTIP would be
better all around.
www.fordschool.umich.edu
56
Conclusion
• Trade effects of TTIP on the neighbor
economies will be mostly that they lose
from either
– New trade diversion, or
– Reversal of previous trade diversion that was in
their favor
www.fordschool.umich.edu
57
Appendix: Country Data
www.fordschool.umich.edu
58
Exports EU
Imports EU
FTAs
EU
E
m
E E
www.fordschool.umich.edu
ay
d
e
m m
E f E
f
E
E
E
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
E
N Amer
e
E
India
co
C a r ri b
.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
J a pa n
Barcelona Process
Mexi
n
Leban
on
M o ro
cco
W Bn
k&G
a za
Syria
T u ni s
ia
C a na
da
Jorda
E Eur
Israe
l
us
Turke
y
U k ra i
ne
Alger
ia
Egypt
CEFTA
Belar
erlan
d
Alb a n
ia
Bo s &
Herz
Koso
vo
M a ce
donia
M o ld
ov a
M o nt
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
S w i tz
N o rw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
e e
m M
E
59
Exports US
Imports US
FTAs
US
e
m
E
www.fordschool.umich.edu
ay
d
f
E
E
f
N Amer
E e
m m
E E
India
co
C a r ri b
.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
J a pa n
Barcelona Process
Mexi
n
Leban
on
M o ro
cco
W Bn
k&G
a za
Syria
T u ni s
ia
C a na
da
Jorda
E Eur
Israe
l
us
Turke
y
U k ra i
ne
Alger
ia
Egypt
CEFTA
Belar
erlan
d
Alb a n
ia
Bo s &
Herz
Koso
vo
M a ce
donia
M o ld
ov a
M o nt
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
S w i tz
N o rw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
e e
M m
E
60
Exports Iceland
Imports Iceland
FTAs
Iceland
E e
M m
E
e
m
E
www.fordschool.umich.edu
ay
d
E
f
f
f
f
f
E
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
N Amer
India
co
C a r ri b
.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
J a pa n
Barcelona Process
Mexi
n
Leban
on
M o ro
cco
W Bn
k&G
a za
Syria
T u ni s
ia
C a na
da
Jorda
E Eur
Israe
l
us
Turke
y
U k ra i
ne
Alger
ia
Egypt
CEFTA
Belar
erlan
d
Alb a n
ia
Bo s &
Herz
Koso
vo
M a ce
donia
M o ld
ov a
M o nt
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
S w i tz
N o rw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
e
E
m
61
Exports Norway
Imports Norway
FTAs
Norway
E e
M m
E
E
www.fordschool.umich.edu
ay
d
E
f
f
f
f
f
E
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
m
f
co
India
N Amer
J a pa n
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
C a r ri
Barcelona Process
Mexi
n
Leban
on
M o ro
cco
W Bn
k&G
a za
Syria
T u ni s
ia
C a na
da
Jorda
E Eur
Israe
l
Turke
y
U k ra i
ne
Alger
ia
Eg y p
t
us
CEFTA
Belar
erlan
d
Alb a n
ia
Bo s &
Herz
Koso
vo
M a ce
donia
M o ld
ov a
M o nt
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
S w i tz
N o rw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
e e
m m
E
62
Exports Switzerland
Imports Switzerland
FTAs
Switzerland
E e
M m
f
E
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
E
f
f
f
f
f
E
f
f
f
f
f
f
k&G
az a
cco
on
f
f
India
N Amer
Japan
Barcelona Process
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
E Eur
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
e e
m m
E
63
Exports Albania
Imports Albania
FTAs
Albania
E
M
E
f
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
f
m
f
e
f
f
f
f
f
e
m
f
e
m
f
k&G
az a
cco
on
India
N Amer
Japan
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Barcelona Process
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
E Eur
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
e
m
64
Exports Bos & Herz
Imports Bos & Herz
FTAs
Bos & Herz
E
M
f
Exports Bos & Herz
Imports Bos & Herz
FTAs
Bos & Herz
E
M
f
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
e
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
e
f
e
m
f
e
e
m
f
e
k&G
az a
cco
on
India
N Amer
Japan
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Barcelona Process
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
E Eur
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
f
m m
f
m m
65
Exports Kosovo
Imports Kosovo
FTAs
Kosovo
www.fordschool.umich.edu
ay
d
f
f
f
f
f
k&G
az a
cco
on
India
N Amer
Japan
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Barcelona Process
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
E Eur
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
K os o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Switz
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
f
66
Exports Macedonia
Imports Macedonia
FTAs
Macedonia
E
M
E
Exports Macedonia
Imports Macedonia
FTAs
Macedonia
E
M
E
f
f
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
e
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
e
f
f
e
m
f
m
f
f
e
m
f
m
f
k&G
az a
cco
on
India
N Amer
Japan
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Barcelona Process
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
E Eur
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
e
m m
f
e
m m
f
67
Exports Moldova
Imports Moldova
FTAs
Moldova
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
E
M
f
f
f
f
f
f
e
f
e e
m m
f
k&G
az a
cco
on
India
N Amer
Japan
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Barcelona Process
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
E Eur
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
e
m m
68
Exports Montenegro E
Imports Montenegro M
FTAs
Montenegro E
Exports Montenegro E
Imports Montenegro M
FTAs
Montenegro E
f
f
www.fordschool.umich.edu
f
f
f
f
f
e
m
f
f
e
m
f
f
f
f
f
e
f
e
m
f
India
Japan
Other
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Tunis
ia
k&G
az a
Syria
cco
W Bn
Moro
on
N Amer
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
Ukra
in
Belar
u
e
f
e
m
f
e
Alger
ia
Barcelona Process
s
Turke
y
E Eur
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
CEFTA
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
d
EFTA
m
f
E
m
f
E
69
Exports Serbia
Imports Serbia
FTAs
Serbia
E
M
E
Exports Serbia
Imports Serbia
FTAs
Serbia
E
M
E
f
f
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
f
f
f
f
f
e
m
f
f
e
m
f
e
f
f
f
f
f
e
f
f
f
e
e
k&G
az a
cco
on
India
N Amer
Japan
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Barcelona Process
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
E Eur
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
e
m m
f
e
m m
f
70
Exports Belarus
Imports Belarus
FTAs
Belarus
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
E
m m
e
m
k&G
az a
cco
on
India
N Amer
Japan
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Barcelona Process
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
E Eur
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
e
M m
f
71
Exports Turkey
Imports Turkey
FTAs
Turkey
E
M m
C
f
www.fordschool.umich.edu
f
ay
d
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
k&G
az a
cco
on
India
N Amer
Japan
Barcelona Process
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
E Eur
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
K os o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Switz
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
e
m m
f
72
Exports Ukraine
Imports Ukraine
FTAs
Ukraine
E
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
e
m m
E
E
f
f
m
e
e
k&G
az a
cco
on
India
N Amer
Japan
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Barcelona Process
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
E Eur
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
E
M m
E
73
Exports Algeria
Imports Algeria
FTAs
Algeria
E e
M m
f
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
e
m
k&G
az a
cco
on
India
N Amer
Japan
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Barcelona Process
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
E Eur
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
e
m
74
Exports Egypt
Imports Egypt
FTAs
Egypt
E e
M m
f
Exports Egypt
Imports Egypt
FTAs
Egypt
E e
M m
f
f
f
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
f
f
f
f
e
m
l
Jorda
n
Israe
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
k&G
az a
cco
India
N Amer
Japan
Barcelona Process
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
W Bn
f
on
Tunis
ia
m
Syria
e
Moro
f
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
E Eur
Leban
f
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
m m
m m
75
Exports Israel
Imports Israel
FTAs
Israel
e E
M m
f f
f
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
f
m
f
m
f
k&G
az a
cco
on
e
m
f
India
N Amer
Japan
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Barcelona Process
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
E Eur
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
e
f
76
Exports Jordan
Imports Jordan
FTAs
Jordan
e E
M m
f E
Exports Jordan
Imports Jordan
FTAs
Jordan
e E
M m
f E
f
f
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
f
f
f
f
e
f
m
f
f
m
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
k&G
az a
cco
on
f
f
India
N Amer
Japan
Barcelona Process
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
E Eur
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
m
e
f
m
f
77
Exports Lebanon
Imports Lebanon
FTAs
Lebanon
e
M m
f
Exports Lebanon
Imports Lebanon
FTAs
Lebanon
e
M m
f
f
f
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
f
f
E
m
E
m
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
m
f
f
f
f
f
m
f
f
f
f
f
k&G
az a
cco
on
India
N Amer
Japan
Barcelona Process
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Tunis
ia
f
Ukra
in
E Eur
Syria
f
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
m
m
78
Exports Morocco
Imports Morocco
FTAs
Morocco
E e
M m
f E
Exports Morocco
Imports Morocco
FTAs
Morocco
E e
M m
f E
f
f
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
k&G
az a
cco
on
e
e
India
N Amer
Japan
Barcelona Process
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
E Eur
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
m m
e
f
m m
e
f
79
Exports W Bnk & Gaza
Imports W Bnk & Gaza
FTAs
W Bnk & Gaza
Norw
f
f
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
f
vo
Herz
da
India
Japan
a
China
N Amer
Russi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Me x i
ia
Barcelona Process
Cana
Tunis
non
Mo r o
cco
W Bn
k&G
aza
Syria
L e ba
E Eur
Israe
l
Jorda
n
us
Turke
y
Ukra
ine
Alger
ia
E gy p
t
CEFTA
Belar
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
S e rb i
a
K o so
B os &
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Icelan
f
US
EU
EFTA
Other
f
80
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
Exports Syria
Imports Syria
FTAs
Syria
E
M
f
e
m m
f
Exports Syria
Imports Syria
FTAs
Syria
E
M
f
e
m m
f
f
f
f
f
f
f
k&G
az a
cco
on
e
m m
f
f
f
f
India
N Amer
Japan
Barcelona Process
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
E Eur
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
e
m m
81
Exports Tunisia
Imports Tunisia
FTAs
Tunisia
E e
M m
f
Exports Tunisia
Imports Tunisia
FTAs
Tunisia
E e
M m
f
f
f
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
f
f
e
f
m
f
f
m
f
f
f
f
f
e
f
f
f
f
k&G
az a
cco
on
India
N Amer
Japan
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Barcelona Process
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
E Eur
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
e
f
m m
e
m m
f
82
Exports Canada
Imports Canada
FTAs
Canada
e E
m M
E f
f
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
f
f
f
k&G
az a
cco
on
e
m
E
India
N Amer
Japan
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Barcelona Process
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
E Eur
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
e e
m m
83
Exports Mexico
Imports Mexico
FTAs
Mexico
e E
m M
E E E
E
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
E
f
k&G
az a
cco
on
e
E
India
N Amer
Japan
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Barcelona Process
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
E Eur
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
e
m m
E
84
Exports Carrib.
Imports Carrib.
FTAs
Carrib.
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
k&G
az a
cco
on
India
N Amer
Japan
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Barcelona Process
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
E Eur
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
e E
m M
E
85
Exports C Amer
Imports C Amer
FTAs
C Amer
e E
m M
E E
www.fordschool.umich.edu
d
k&G
az a
cco
on
India
N Amer
Japan
C an a
da
Mexi
co
Carri
b.
C Am
er
Russi
a
China
Barcelona Process
Tunis
ia
Syria
W Bn
Moro
Leban
l
Jorda
n
Israe
Egyp
t
e
Alger
ia
E Eur
Ukra
in
s
Turke
y
CEFTA
Belar
u
ay
Switz
erlan
d
Alban
ia
Bos &
Herz
Ko s o
vo
Mace
donia
Mold
ova
Mont
eneg
ro
Serbi
a
Norw
Icelan
US
EU
EFTA
Other
E
86
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