World Populations – As we age
• The world's population
has moved from a path
of high birth and death
rates to one
characterized by low
birth and death rates.
• What does this mean
for our future?
World Populations – As we age
•
1 in 10 persons is now 60+ years old. By 2050, one in five will be
60 years or older.
•
The older population itself is ageing. The oldest old (80+ years) is
the fastest growing segment of the older population. They currently
make up 11 percent of the 60+ age group and will grow to 19
percent by 2050. The number of centenarians will increase 15-fold
from approximately 145,000 in 1999 to 2.2 million by 2050.
•
55% of older persons are women.
•
51% of the world's older persons live in urban areas.
•
In the last 50 years, average life expectancy increased by 20
years. Global life expectancy is currently 66 years.
•
Dependency Ratio is increasing throughout the world
World Populations – As we age
• Ageing is not the same
everywhere. For example, the
developed nations (e.g., Canada)
are ageing faster than the underdeveloped and developing nations.
This means the “problems”
associated with an ageing
population are different throughout
the world.
• For developed nations, the issue is
sustaining their economic and
social structures as the population
ages. Solutions to slow or reverse
the trend are needed.
World Populations – As we age
• One solution…and the stated
policy solution for Canada…is
immigration.
• Thus, we must look at changing
demographics from two
components:
– Natural
– Migration or movement.
• Natural is birth and death, while
migration includes immigration
(movement to) and emigration
(movement away).
World Populations – As we age
Measuring Demographics – Definitions
•
Birth Rate is the number of births in a country for
every thousand people in the population. If 150 000
children are born in one year in a country with a
population of 5 000 000, the birth rate is 150 000 / 5
000 000 X 1000 = 30.
•
A Birth Rate over 30 is high, while less than 15 is
low.
•
Canada’s 2005 population was 32 270 500. In that
year 343 517 babies were born. The 2005 Birth Rate
was:
(343 517 / 32 270 500) X 1000 = 10.6
•
Thus, 10.6 babies were born in 2005 for every 1 000
people in Canada.
World Populations – As we age
Measuring Demographics – Definitions
• Death Rate is the number of deaths
in a country for every thousand
people in the population.
• Canada’s 2005 population was 32
270 500. In that year 234 914 people
died. Canada’s 2005 Death Rate
was:
(234 914 / 32 270 500) X 1000 = 7.3
• So, 7.3 people died per every 1 000
people in Canada in 2005.
World Populations – As we age
Measuring Demographics – Definitions
•
It would seem only natural the Natural Increase Rate
(NIR) is the difference between Birth Rate and Death
Rate. If Birth Rate is 30 and Death Rate is 20, the NIR is
10 per thousand people (or 1 percent).
•
The NIR formula is (Birth Rate – Death Rate) / 10
•
In 2005, Canada’s NIR was:
= (Birth Rate – Death Rate) / 10
= (10.6 – 7.3) / 10
= 3.3 / 10
= 0.33
•
Thus, Canada’s population in 2005 grew naturally by
0.33%. A negative number would mean a reduction.
World Populations – As we age
Measuring Demographics –
Definitions
• Immigration Rate is the number of
people who permanently move to
a country.
• In 2005, 254 359 people
immigrated to Canada. With a
2005 population of 32 270 500, the
Immigration Rate was:
(254 359 / 32 270 500) X 1000 = 7.9
World Populations – As we age
Measuring Demographics – Definitions
• Emigration Rate is the number of people
who permanently leave a country. For
example, 10 000 people leave from the total
population of 5 000 000. The Emigration
Rate would be 2.0 per every thousand (10
000 / 5 000 000 X 1 000)
• In 2005, 38 551 people emigrated to Canada.
With a 2005 population of 32 270 500, the
Immigration Rate was:
(38 551 / 32 270 500) X 1000 = 1.2
World Populations – As we age
Measuring Demographics – Definitions
•
To provide a summary to immigration or
movement, the Net Migration Rate (NMR) is the
difference between the Immigration Rate and the
Emigration Rate.
•
The NMR formula is (Immigration Rate –
Emigration Rate) / 10
•
In 2005, Canada’s NMR was:
= (Immigration Rate – Emigration Rate) / 10
= (7.9 – 1.2) / 10
= 6.7 / 10
= 0.67
•
Thus, Canada NMR was 0.67% with a net increase
in people.
World Populations – As we age
Measuring Demographics – Definitions
• Population Growth Rate (PGR) is the rate
at which a country’s population is
changing. It combines Natural Increase
Rate (NIR) plus Net Migration Rate (NMR)
• In 2005, Canada’s PGR was:
NIR + NMR = 0.33 + 0.67 = 1.00%
• Thus, Canada’s population is growing but
at a very slow rate relative to other spots
in the world.
World Populations – As we age
Measuring Demographics – Definitions
• Infant Mortality Rate is the number of
children in a country who die in the
first year of life for every 1 000 births.
An Infant Mortality Rate over 80 is
extremely high, while a rate of 15 or
less is low. Canada’s rate is about 5.1
per thousand.
• As we have learned, infant mortality
can be a measure of a country’s
economic prosperity. How?
World Populations – As we age
Measuring Demographics – Definitions
• Dependency Load is the percentage of a
country’s population who are under the age
of 15 and over 65 that must be supported by
the independent, working population. A
high dependency load stresses a country’s
economy. In 2000, 19% of Canadians were
younger than 15 and 13% were over 65.
• Life Expectancy is the average lifespan that
a newborn will have. A short lifespan is
less than 50, while a long lifespan is over 75
years. The life expectancy in Canada is
79.4 years.
World Populations – As we age
Measuring Demographics – Definitions
• Total Fertility Rate is the average number of
children that each woman will have in her
fertile years… assuming no change in the
Birth Rate.
• Fertile years are assumed to be between 15
and 45 years.
• A high Fertility Rate would be greater than
five, while a low rate would be below the
Replacement Rate of 2.1. Canada’s Fertility
Rate is about 1.7.
World Populations – As we age
Measuring Demographics –
Definitions
• Replacement Rate is the Total
Fertility Rate that would produce a
Natural Increase Rate of zero. In
other words, a country’s
population does not change
(…ignoring immigration).
• The Replacement Rate to achieve
zero is 2.1
World Populations – As we age
Measuring Demographics – Definitions
• Rule of 70 or Doubling Time is how long it takes a
country’s population to double.
• The formula is divide 70 by the country’s
Population Growth Rate (as a percentage). A
population growing at a rate of 2.3% will double in
30 years (70 / 2.3 = 30).
• If Canada’s Population Growth Rate continues at
1.0%, Canada’s population will double in
= 70 / 1.0 = 70 years.
• Canada’s Population Growth Rate is predict to be
0.6% by 2025. In this scenario, Canada’s
population would double in 70 / 0.6 = 117 years.
World Populations – As we age
A country has a population of 31 850 000 at the beginning of the year.
During the year, the following population changes occurred.
– 1 038 000 babies were born
– 594 000 people died
– 86 000 people emigrated
– 53 000 people immigrated
– 93 000 babies died during the year
– 9 159 000 women were aged 15 to 45.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Calculate the following values:
Population at the end of the year
Birth Rate and Death Rate
Emigration and Immigration Rates
Natural Increase Rate and Net Migration Rate
Population Growth Rate
Infant Mortality Rate
Total Fertility Rate