Frank & Bernanke 3rd edition, 2007 Ch. 15: Inflation, Aggregate Supply, and Aggregate Demand 1 Introduction The Keynesian model assumes that producers meet demand at preset prices. The shortcoming of their assumption is that it does not explain the behavior of inflation. 2 Introduction The aggregate demand/aggregate supply model will allow us to see how macroeconomic policy affects inflation and output. 3 The Aggregate Demand Curve Aggregate Demand (AD) Curve Shows the relationship between short-run equilibrium output Y and the rate of inflation, The name of the curve reflects the fact that short-run equilibrium output is determined by, and equals, total planned spending in the economy 4 The Aggregate Demand Curve Aggregate Demand (AD) Curve Increases in inflation reduce planned spending and short-run equilibrium output, so the aggregate demand curve is downwardsloping 5 The Aggregate Demand Curve Inflation An increase in reduces Y (all other factors held constant) Aggregate Demand Curve AD Output Y 6 The Fed and the AD Curve A primary objective of the Fed is to maintain a low and stable inflation rate. Inflation is likely to occur when Y > Y*. To control inflation, the Fed must keep Y from exceeding Y*. The Fed should lower the AD curve when Y>Y*. The Fed can reduce autonomous expenditure by raising the interest rate. increases r increases autonomous spending decreases Y decreases (AD curve) 7 The Aggregate Demand Curve and the Monetary Policy Reaction Function r2 r1 Inflation Real interest rate set by the Fed, r B A 2 1 1 2 B A Output Y Inflation 8 Other Reasons for the Downward Slope of the AD Curve Real value of money Distributional effects Uncertainty Prices of domestic goods and services sold abroad 9 Increase In Exogenous Spending AD’ Inflation AD Exogenous Spending: spending unrelated to Y or r •Fiscal policy •Technology •Foreign demand An increase in exogenous spending shifts AD to AD’ and vice versa Output Y 10 AD New monetary policy reaction function B r* A 2* Old monetary policy reaction function 1* Inflation Fed “tightens” monetary policy – shifting reaction curve AD’ Inflation Real interest rate set by Fed, r Fed Targets Higher r A B Output Y The new Fed policy increases r and AD shifts to AD’ 11 Movements Along the AD Curve and Y are inversely related Changes in cause a change in Y or a movement along the AD curve increases r increases planned spending decreases Y decreases (stationary monetary policy reaction function) 12 Shifts of the AD Curve Any factor that changes Y at a given shifts the AD curve. Shifts of the AD curve can be caused by: Changes in exogenous spending. Changes in the Fed’s policy reaction function. 13 Inflation and Aggregate Supply Inflation will remain roughly constant, or have inertia, if operating at Y* and there are no external shocks to the price level. Inflation Inertia In industrial economies (U.S.), inflation tends to change slowly from year to year. The inflation inertia occurs for two reasons: Inflation expectations Long-term wage and price contracts 14 A Virtuous Circle 15 Long-term Contracts Union wage contracts set wages for several years. Contracts setting the price of raw materials and parts for manufacturing firms also cover several years. These long-term contracts reflect the inflation expectations at the time they are signed. 16 Inflation and Aggregate Supply Three factors that can increase the inflation rate Output gap Inflation shock Shock to potential output 17 The Output Gap and Inflation Relationship of output to potential output Behavior of inflation 1. No output gap Y = Y* Inflation remains unchanged 2. Expansionary gap Y > Y* Inflation rises 3. Recessionary gap Y < Y* Inflation falls 18 Aggregate Supply Long-run aggregate supply (LRAS) A vertical line showing the economy’s potential output Y* Short-run Aggregate Supply (SRAS) A horizontal line showing the current rate of inflation, as determined by past expectations and pricing decisions 19 Short-run Equilibrium Inflation equals the value determined by past expectations and pricing decisions and output equals the level of short-run equilibrium output that is consistent with that inflation rate Graphically, short-run equilibrium occurs at the intersection of the AD curve and the SRAS line 20 Equilibrium Long-run aggregate supply, LRAS Short-run aggregate supply, SRAS A Inflation Short-run equilibrium •Y: SRAS() = AD •Y < Y* -- recessionary gap • and Y adjust to the gap • decreases & Y increases Long-run equilibrium • AD, SRAS (*), LRAS (Y*) will intersect at the same point Aggregate demand, AD Y Y* Output 21 The Adjustment of Inflation When a Recessionary Gap Exists LRAS Inflation A SRAS1 SRAS2 SRAS3 B ’ SRASFinal AD Y Y* Output 22 Long-run Equilibrium A situation in which actual output equals potential output and the inflation rate is stable Graphically, long-run equilibrium occurs when the AD curve, the SRAS line, and the LRAS line all intersect at a single point 23 Adjustment to Recessionary Gap Firms that are selling less than they want to will start to lower prices. As falls the Fed lowers r and AD increases. Falling reduces uncertainty which also increases AD As Y increases, cyclical unemployment falls (Okun’s Law) Adjustment continues until long-run equilibrium is reached. 24 The Adjustment of Inflation When A Expansionary Gap Exists LRAS Inflation Short-run Eq. Y •Expansionary gap Y > Y* • rises, AD falls – Y falls •Long-run equilibrium at Y*, * B ’ SRASFinal SRAS3 SRAS2 A SRAS AD Output Y* Y 25 The Self-Correcting Economy In the long-run the economy tends to be self-correcting. The Keynesian model does not include a self-correcting mechanism. The Keynesian model concentrates on the short-run with no price adjustment. The self-correcting mechanism concentrates on the long-run with price adjustments. 26 The Self-Correcting Economy A slow self-correcting mechanism Fiscal and monetary policy can help stabilize the economy. A fast self-correcting mechanism Fiscal and monetary policy are not effective and may destabilize the economy. 27 The Self-Correcting Economy The speed of correction will depend on: The use of long-term contracts. The efficiency and flexibility of labor markets. Fiscal and monetary policy are most useful when attempting to eliminate large output gaps. 28 Sources of Inflation Excessive Aggregate Spending Inflation Shocks Shocks to Potential Output 29 Military Buildup and Inflation •Increase in military spending causes AD to increase •Creates an expansionary gap -- Y > Y* • increases shifting SRAS to SRASFinal •Long-run equilibrium back to Y* with * LRAS LRAS C B SRAS A Inflation Inflation ’ SRASFinal B A AD’ SRAS3 SRAS2 SRAS AD’ AD Y Y* Output Y Y* Output 30 Sources of Inflation What Do You Think? Does the Fed have the power to prevent the increased inflation that is induced by a rise in military spending? Hint: Can the Fed reduce AD? What is the cost of avoiding inflation during a military buildup? 31 Sources of Inflation in 1960 1959-63 inflation averaged about 1% By 1970 inflation was 7% Fiscal policy Increased spending on Great Society and war on poverty initiatives Increases in defense spending 1965 = $50.6 billion or 7.4% of GDP 1968 = $81.9 billion or 9.4% of GDP Monetary policy The Fed did not try to offset the increase in government spending 32 Sources of Inflation Inflation Shock A sudden change in the normal behavior of inflation, unrelated to the nation’s output gap Inflation Shock -- Examples OPEC embargo of 1973 Drop in oil prices in 1986 33 Adverse Inflation Shock Inflation LRAS ’ • Equilibrium @ A--Y* = Y • Inflation shock, increases to ‘ (SRAS’) • Short-run eq. At B, Y < Y*; recessionary gap and higher inflation (stagflation) • No policy -- falls; long-run eq. at A • With policy--AD shifts to AD’; Y = Y*; rises to * C B SRAS’ A SRAS AD’ AD Y’ Y* Output 34 Sources of Inflation What is the macroeconomic policy dilemma created by an inflation shock? (stagflation)? Sustained inflation is possible only if monetary policy is sufficiently expansionary. 35 Shock To Potential Output Inflation LRAS’ ’ LRAS B •Equilibrium at A -- Y* = Y •Y* falls to Y*’ •Y > Y* -- expansionary gap • increases--SRAS rises to SRAS’ •Equilibrium at B •Y = Y*’ • increased to ‘ •Decline in output is permanent SRAS’ A SRAS AD Y*’ Y* Output http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=101386052 36 Aggregate Supply Shock Either an inflation shock or a shock to potential output Adverse aggregate supply shocks of both types reduce output and increase inflation Inflation shocks Stagflation Temporary reduction in output 37 U.S. Macroeconomic Data, Annual Averages, 1985-2000 Was Greenspan right in 1996? Years % Growth in Unemployment Inflation real GDP rate (%) rate (%) Productivity growth (%) 1985-1995 2.8 6.3 3.5 1.4 1995-2000 4.1 4.8 2.5 2.5 38 Greenspan Inflation LRAS ’ LRAS’ •Equilibrium at B -- Y*’ = Y •Productivity increases •Y*’ shifts to Y* •Recessionary gap -- Y*’ < Y* • falls to •Equilibrium at A •Lower inflation; higher output B SRAS’ A SRAS AD Y*’ Y* Output 39 Fiscal Policy and the Supply Side Supply-side Policy A policy that affects potential output Examples Roads and highways Airports Schools Government tax and transfer programs 40 Fiscal Policy and the Supply Side Marginal Tax Rate The amount by which taxes rise when beforetax income rises by one dollar Average Tax Rate Total taxes divided by total before-tax income 41 The Potential Effects of Tax Rate Reductions on Both AD and AS Inflation LRAS LRAS’ AD AD’ Y* Y*’ Output 42 Fiscal Policy and the Supply Side Effect on Supply of Labor Lower rates may give people an incentive to seek further education and engage in entrepreneurial activity. Lower rates may give workers an incentive to work less. Married women are more responsive to tax changes than men. 43 Hours Worked per Person and Marginal Tax Rates, 1993-1996 Country Hours worked per person per year relative to the U.S. (U.S. = 100) Japan United States United Kingdom Canada Germany France Italy 104 100 88 88 75 68 64 Marginal tax rate 37% 40 44 52 59 59 64 44 Output Gaps and Policies AD > Y* => Expansionary Gap AD < Y* => Recessionary Gap Policies to eliminate gaps: Fiscal policies G increase/decrease T increase/decrease Monetary policies Money supply increase/decrease (r increase/decrease) 45 Shortcoming of the Keynesian Cross It keeps prices constant. How does one include inflation into the Keynesian cross? Explain what happens to AD at higher levels of inflation and use this new diagram. Include the self-correcting mechanism of the economy by differentiating short run aggregate supply (Keynesian) from the long run aggregate supply (Classical). 46 Why Does Aggregate Demand Fall When Inflation Rises? When up => Fed Policy Reaction Function raises r => I and C down => AD down Fed Policy Reaction Function (Example: Taylor rule): r = 0.01 - 0.5[(Y*-Y)/Y*] + 0.5 47 Why Does Aggregate Demand Fall When Inflation Rises? When up => wealth held in money form erodes => C down => AD down When up => MPC falls because the poor are affected more than the rich => multiplier falls => AD flatter When up => at constant exchange rates our exports become more expensive and our imports become cheaper => NX falls => AD falls 48 Shifts in AD Changes in autonomous aggregate demand. Autonomous C Autonomous I Taxes Government purchases Net exports Changes in Fed’s policy reaction function Tightening of monetary policy Easing of monetary policy 49 Shifting of AD Increase in autonomous spending shifts AD right. Tightening of monetary policy raises r and shifts AD left. Easing of monetary policy lowers r and shifts AD right. Changes in inflation are movements along the AD curve. 50 Movement Along AD Any change in the vertical axis shows as a movement along the AD line, just like demand and supply (changes in P). The vertical axis measures the inflation rate. Therefore, any change in the inflation rate is shown as a movement along the AD line. 51 Why Inflation Rate Doesn’t Change? Inflation has inertia. Inflationary expectations tend to keep inflation constant. Contracts include expected inflation. Long term contracts keep inflation constant. 52 Why Inflation Rate Changes? 1. Output Gap. 1. 2. Inflation shock 1. 3. Expansionary output gaps (Y>Y*) An increase in price of inputs that raise the cost of production for a significant portion of the economy. (Oil; wages for national unions). Shock to potential output 1. Disasters. 53 Expansionary Gaps How will an expansionary gap look in an AD-AS diagram? How will the economy adjust to the expansionary gap? What will happen to SRAS in the longrun? Keynesian - Classical dilemma. 54 Excessive AD Shifts in AD that create expansionary output gaps will raise inflation rate. G increase: military buildup of 1960s and 1980s. Inflation rose in the sixties but did not in the eighties. The Fed’s policy stand is the answer. 55 Inflation Shocks Oil price shock of the seventies pushed the inflation up: SRAS shifts up. If the Fed doesn’t respond recessionary gap will be eliminated in the long run. If the Fed does respond to recession, AD will be shifted to the right but the long run equilibrium will take place at the higher inflation rate. 56 Shock to Potential Output If a disaster happens or capital becomes obsolete or expensive to use, Y* shifts left. Again, stagflation occurs, just like when inflationary shocks takes place. Long run equilibrium will be at a higher inflation rate and lower Y. 57 Lowering Inflation Suppose the country is experiencing double digit inflation. Because of inflationary expectations and contracts, the inflation will remain at that level. However, to eliminate the costs of inflation, the Central Bank embarks in a new monetary policy. Show the short and long run effects. 58 Lowering Inflation GDP Inflation Infl’n Y* r Time 59 Can Fiscal Stimulus Work http://www.economy.com/markzandi/documents/assissing-the-impact-ofthe-fiscal-stimulus.pdf Barro note 60