By: Mrs Prabhjot Kaur Lecturer SBSBS, TU In a broad sense, inflation is that state in which the prices of goods and services rise on the one hand and value of money falls on the other When money circulation exceeds the production of goods and services, then inflation takes place in the economy It is a continuous process. It refers to a rise in prices in general. It involves a considerable increase in prices. It causes a decline in the purchasing power of money. 1. 2. Demand Pull Inflation Cost Push Inflation I. II. III. IV. The demand for goods and services increases and production remains the same or does not increase as fast. The excess demand results in prices being “pulled up”. Affected by: Greater spending by households(C) (Also because credit has become more readily available). Investment spending by firms increases as a result of a drop in interest rates and/or a positive business climate (I). Increased government spending (G). Higher earnings from exports (X). Demand Pull Inflation Price $ Aggregate Supply P2 Aggregate Demand 2 P1 Aggregate Demand 1 Q1 Q2 Real GDP ($) 6 Caused by an increase in the cost of production. Increased costs “push up” the price level. Affected by: I. Wages (increases in wages and salaries). II. Increase in price of key imported inputs. III. Exchange rate depreciation. IV. Increase in profit margins. V. Decrease in productivity for the same remuneration. VI. Natural disasters. Cost Push Inflation Price $ Aggregate Supply 2 Aggregate Supply 1 P2 P1 Aggregate Demand Q2 Q1 Real GDP ($) 8 Inflation impacts negatively on economic growth. Inflation brings about uncertainty in the economy. Savings and investment are discouraged. Inflation affects the distribution of income. Redistributes income from people with fixed incomes to those with flexible incomes. Redistributes income from private individuals to the government. Causes fiscal drag and bracket creep: salary increases move people into higher tax brackets and they could be effectively worse off. Inflation has an adverse effect on a country’s balance of payments. If India’s rate of inflation is higher than that of our trading partners the result is a loss of international competitiveness. Inflation can cause a decrease in the real money value of savings. Fiscal Measures Monetary Measures General Measures Increase direct taxes. Increase indirect taxes. Reduce government spending. Introduce measures to increase productivity, e.g. tax rebates Increase interest rates of banks. Decrease money supply. Decrease availability of credit from banks. Decrease currency control. Increase productivity. Freeze prices and wages. Implement a wage restraint policy. Encourage personal savings. Implement control measures for consumer credit. Import control: make competing imported goods cheaper. Introduce price indexation: linking all prices to a particular index, e.g. CPI. Inflation targeting. The inflation rate in India was recorded at 5.96 percent in March of 2013,which is reported by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry In India, the wholesale price index (WPI) is the main measure of inflation. The WPI measures the price of a representative basket of wholesale goods. In India, wholesale price index is divided into three groups: Primary Articles (20.1 percent of total weight), Fuel and Power (14.9 percent) and Manufactured Products (65 percent). Deflation is that state in which the value of goods and services falls A sustained decrease in average price level is called deflation Prices fall opposite of inflation Not the same as disinflation, which is a reduction in the rate of inflation The inflation rate measures the trend in the average price level Govt. withdraws money from circulation Govt. imposes heavy direct taxes or takes heavy loans from the public Central bank sells the securities in open market Central bank controls the credit money and adopts various measures such as increase in CRR, credit rationing and direct action The central bank increases the bank rate State of over-production takes place in the economy 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. To increase money supply To promote credit creation by the banks Curtailment in taxes so as to increase the purchasing power of the people To increase the public expenditure and to increase the employment opportunities in the economy To increase the money supply in circulation by repayment of old public debts To provide economic subsidy by the govt. to the industrial sector of the economy