80.6 n
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Definition of Soft Power
“What is soft power? It is the ability to get what you want through
attraction rather than coercion or payment. It arises from the
attractiveness of a country’s culture, political ideals, and policies.
When our policies are seen as legitimate in the eyes of others, our
soft power is enhanced… When you can get others to admire your
ideals and to want what you want, you do not have to spend as
much on sticks and carrots to move them in your direction.”
-- Joseph S. Nye Jr
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Project Goals
• Examine the current state of Russian soft power by using Estonia
as a case study.
• Analyze Russian Compatriot Policy which seeks to codify the
relationship of the Russian diaspora to its homeland
• Quantify the impact of Compatriot Policy, as a soft power foreign
policy tool, particularly on young people in the Russian diaspora.
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Project Methodology
•The report is supported by the results of a comprehensive survey
conducted by CSIS in 2009 and 2010.
•Data for these surveys was generated through interviews with
three thousand individuals between the ages of 16 and 29,
including an equal number of Russians living in Russia, native
Estonians living in Estonia and ethnic Russians living in Estonia.
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Russian Compatriot Policy
• Non-Governmental Organizations
• Media
• Political Influence
• Legal Action
• The Russian Orthodox Church
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Nongovernmental Organizations
(NGOs)
• Primary and most public Russian soft-power instrument
• The Russia House network includes over 50 centers and has a
budget between $26 - $30 million
• The Russkiy Mir Foundation includes 65 centers and has an annual
budget of $17.5 million
• Stated goal of these centers is to popularize Russian language and
promote cross-cultural dialogue
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Media
• Media outreach includes newspapers, magazines, television and
radio.
• Mixes traditional tools of soft power with overt propaganda
• Dissemination is coordinated through the Russkiy Mir Foundation
• This year, over $2 million on 74 broadcasts and advertisements
targeting Russian compatriots in Estonia
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Political Influence
• Moscow funds political parties that represent the interest of the
Russian minority, viewed as a “viable means” to exercise political
influence abroad
• Examples of Russian partners: Center Party (Estonia), Harmony
Center (Latvia), Union of Russians (Lithuania), Movement for Fair
Georgia, Party of Regions (Ukraine), Democratic Party (Moldova)
• Tallinn’s Mayor accepted €1.5 million from Russian Railways prior
to March 2011 parliamentary elections to promote his Center Party
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Legal Action
• Russia has used the European Court of Human Rights to file claims on behalf of
the Russian diaspora
•More than 828 claims have been brought against Estonia in the ECHR. 98% have
been deemed inadmissible. The number of these claims brought by Russia is not
reported.
• Russia has publicly chastised Estonia over alleged human rights violations in the
UNHCR, OSCE and Council of Europe
• In 2006, the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister stated that Russia “intends actively
to use the podium of the U.N. rights body for drawing attention to the negative
humanitarian situation in Latvia and Estonia.”
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The Russian Orthodox Church
• The Church has reclaimed the historical concept of Svjataja Rus
(Holy Russia) to revive the “spiritual unity of Russian compatriots”
• The Russian Federal Assembly provides state support for the
founding of compatriot religious organizations abroad
• President Medvedev has called the church “an effective rallying
point for the entire Orthodox world <that> helps maintain spiritual
and cultural ties with the homeland.”
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The Reach of Russian Compatriot Policy:
Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Ukraine
• Russkiy Mir network has global presence, including support of
extremist groups (Ukraine)
• Russian media is widespread, especially Kremlin-controlled Pervyi
Kanal (First Baltic Channel)
• United Russia Party has partnerships with pro-Russian parties in
each country (except Lithuania)
• Russia has filed human rights complaints in all five countries, but less
so in Lithuania
• High popularity and influence of Russian Orthodox Church
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Table 1. Survey Characteristics
Number Born in current University
Surveyed
country
educated
Fluent
Bottom
Estonian
Top household
household
speaker Unemployed earnings quintile earnings quintile
Estonia:
Estonians
1,003
99.2%
22.0%
100.0%
10.6%
15.0%
27.1%
667
96.3%
26.5%
24.7%
13.0%
6.8%
36.5%
338
96.2%
12.1%
6.5%
22.8%
4.2%
41.0%
Ethnic Russians
928
95.4%
29.9%
NA
9.4%
24.3%
14.9%
Non-Russians
88
86.4%
33.0%
NA
19.3%
19.4%
23.9%
Russian citizens
of Estonia
Russian noncitizens in
Estonia
Russian Federation:
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Figure 6. What influence, if any, have Russian government statements
and actions had on the actual situation of Russians in Estonia (asked of
those who have heard of such statements/actions)?
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2%
Russian
Federation
24%
51%
18%
4%
Very positive
Somewhat
positive
No influence
2%
Estonian
Russians
18%
54%
17%
9%
Don't know/refuse
Somewhat
negative
Very negative
0%
Estonians
7%
22%
17%
49%
5%
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Figure 7. How accurately does "a strong economy" describe
Russia/Estonia?
0%
RF ethnic Russians
20%
13%
Russia
Estonian Russians, gray
42%
26%
45%
31%
Estonia
9%
49%
31%
RF non-ethnic Russians 6%8%
Estonian Russians
5%12%
Estonians
13%3%
38%
22%
35%
80%
36%
7%
Estonians 8% 22% 7%
RF ethnic Russians
60%
25% 6%
RF non-ethnic Russians 10%
Estonian Russians, blue
40%
18%
100%
20%
33%
8%
6% 18%
2%16%1%
25%
37%
Completely
Somewhat
Hard to Say
Not much
Not at all
33%
81%
46%
36%
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Key Policy Recommendations
Integrate the Russian Minority
• Estonia should promote friendship networks, increase workplace
diversity at the workplace and promote NGOs that focus on shared
social and political interests.
• Offer more language classes to Russian adults and training courses
for workers to reduce high unemployment
• The Russian government should actively encourage the engagement
of the Russian minority in Estonia politically, economically and socially.
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