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SKILL DEVELOPMENT SECTION
Handicapping Guidelines
Definition of Handicap.
HANDICAPPING a Thoroughbred in horse racing means introducing
some sort of a disadvantage of extra weight to some horses in an
attempt to give every other runner equal chance of winning.
An official handicapper adjusts/allots the amount of the weight to
be carried by each horse in a Handicap race for the purpose of
equalizing their chances of winning
The mantra is to give equal opportunity to every
runner to win that race
We can say that
handicapping is a bit of an
art and science - It cannot
be an exact science because
both OPINION and FACTS are
involved.”
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Indian Handicapping Scenario
The merit handicapping System is not followed perfectly in India on par with the
international method of thoroughbred horse racing rating system. No sincere
attempts are made by our official handicappers to emulate the system in all
respect. Here what we have all is, to find a horse that runs to approximately
running to its merit(previously allotted rating) and handicap the other runners in
that race based on that particular runner .This base runner is called a line horse in
official handicapper terminology .
Unless we switch over to international merit handicapping system our trainers will
be hard to evaluate their wards potential to participate in international
competition. Latest stint of experimenting our national pride IN THE SPOTLIGHT
is a classic example, it was unable to match a 106 rated 8 year old at Dubai in a
handicap race. Here in India we have penalty handicapping and not merit
handicapping
Whilst a system of our flat penalty handicapping based on reference horses
provides for competitive racing domestically, we miss the international
recognition in valuing our rating of horses
Why Weight is used to Handicap?
It is common knowledge that, if you carry weight you cannot run faster.
In horse racing Handicappers use the weight that a horse has to carry to
handicap its known ability.
Horses are of not same ability should be first understood before we understand
the need to handicap them.
THE NEXT POINT IS WHY AT ALL WE NEED TO HANDICAP A HORSE
In further explanation of the theory behind handicapping , you also need to know , a trained horse
produces consistent performance if the wellness of a horse is assumed to be as it was at least
when it ran last time.
Assume 4 Runners A, B, C, D Have Run Without carrying any weight on their back (of course
assume jockeys of same body weight ride them) and result is, say, A Finished First, B Second , C
Third and D Fourth .Now if we run the same race without altering distance and weight to be carried
including the jockey weight the result will be technically same .That means the winning horse will
keep winning again and the losing horse will keep losing again & again, If there is no method called
handicapping
Two prime questions arise here, if we do not handicap
Where is the element of competition?
And
Where is the justice done to owners of the less able horses to survive in this sport ?
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RAM ROBERT RAHIM EXAMPLE
Assume a Man RAM runs against Man ROBERT over a distance of 100 meters.
Both have a good start and Man RAM WINS ROBERT by 10m.
Next ROBERT runs against Man RAHIM and wins by 10m.
So when RAM and RAHIM line up the result should be predictable:
On available evidence RAM should beat RAHIM by 20m, all other things being
equal.
RAM WINS ROBERT by 10 meters.
ROBERT WINSRAHIM by 10 meters.
RAM WINSRAHIM - Result :By20 METERS
Now if RAM carries some weight and races against ROBERT - there is
a dead heat.by 20 meters.
M WINS RAHIM
To get the same result when RAM meets RAHIM it requires RAM to
carry twice the weight.
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If I want RAHIM to win RAM can be given more than double weight of ROBERT carries
and any how RAHIM carries no weight AND THAT ENSURES RAHIM ‘s win , but when I want all
of them win i.e. , a dead heat, then the right weight should be allotted to RAM and ROBERT
Otherwise There Will Be Injustice
Predicting who wins is not
straightforward - the runners must be
made “COMPETITIVE”
If it is known that 5 kg stops the average runner by 5 m then on ‘MERIT’ the
weights in a merit handicap would look something like :
RAM carries 10 kg and ROBERT carries
5kgs RAHIM carries nothing
Variables!
To complicate the example further the distance can be increased from
100 to 400 metres.
Ram will have a problem: the weight on his back will slow him down more
and more the further he runs. So to achieve the same result as over 100
meters the weight on his back will have to be reduced.
But what if Robert and Rahim are much better suited to 400m than to 100m,
and Ram cannot run that far at all? In other words a change of distance could
create circumstances for which historical information related to the old
distance travelled cannot be used.
Some horses carry weight better, because of age or build. Some run
better when the ground is soft, others only when it is hard. Add to these
other factors such as the horse’s well being, fitness, race tactics,
jockeyship etc. and the size of the problem to handicap a race faced by
the handicapper becomes not that ordinary
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Skill development section
Introduction to True Handicapping TM
Facts are
The actual weight differences between the horses.
The actual margins between horses at the end of a race.
The drag effect of weight over different racing distances.
Judgments include
Did he/she get a fair start?
Did he /she have to race wide?
Was the pace of the race true or false?
Was the horse impeded during the race?
How did the horse act in the going?
Was the horse racing over a suitable distance?
Was a large margin of victory truly representative of his
superiority?
What is Handicapping Really ?
An official who assesses how a horse should be rated, taking
into account its past performances. The handicap rating that
is allocated to each horse determines the
weight it will carry in a handicap race
and also sometimes the races that it is eligible to run in.
What is True Handicapping?
Method of allocating weight impediments to equalize
the chances of horses, based on measurable facts in
conjunction with the interpretation of race results.
Measuring Merit
The measurable factors are the actual weight that the horse carries, the
margin of victory or defeat, the drag effect of weight over different racing
distances and the age of a horse.
Some non-quantitative factors, subject to interpretation by the handicapper,
are things like the quality of opposition, the pace of the race, the effect of
having raced wide, being hindered during the running, the impact of the
going and the apparent well being of the animal.
Of the measurable factors the drag effect of weight needs explanation. It is
apparent that it is more difficult to carry weight the further one goes. In
horse racing it is generally accepted that one kilogram slows a horse down
by one length over one mile (1600 metres). Distances shorter than this
necessitate the allocation of more weight to achieve the same one length
'drag' on a horse whilst less weight is required over longer distances.
Drag Effect of Weight.
About 0.5 kg
equals 1 length
@ 2400 m
2400
D
I
S
T
A
N
C
E
About 1 kg
equals 1 length
@ 1600 m
1600
About 1.5 kg
equals 1 length
@ 1200 m
1200
0.5
1
KILOGRAMS
1.5
Drag Effect of Weight
Generally applied scale to losing margins
Beaten
Margin
up to 0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Sprint
Mile
Intermediate
Long
Extended
up to 1200m
up to 1700m
up to 2200m
up to 2600m
beyond 2600m
1 to 2
3
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1
2
3
3
4
5
5
6
7
8
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
1
1
2
2
2
3
3
3
4
4
Measurement of beaten margins expressed in units of 0.5 kg.
With the knowledge of the effects of weight over different race distances it is
possible to equate the margin of victory or defeat as a measure of weight.
The application of simple mathematics to any race result whereby a race
rating is allotted based on the (1) the actual weight carried by a horse (2)
less the weight value of the margin of defeat. This gives every horse an
actual 'weight value' for his performance in that race.
Once these relative weight values have been determined for each horse in
a race the handicapper now uses his judgement to effectively quantify the
overall value of the race.
Comparisons will be made based on the level of ratings of each horse prior
to the event. It is assumed that one or more of the contestants achieved a
level of performance consistent with their pre-race rating, in other words
they run to 'par'. These animals are used as 'line horses'.
They are the “key” against which the other horses in a race will be
measured. “Line horses” are generally consistent and genuine animals and
therefore their performance can more often than not be relied upon. A line
horse would also preferably be an animal that has run a place.
Used to ‘measure’ the race.
The equine version of golf’s ‘PAR’
How and Why ?
Identify an individual that generally performs to a consistent
level.
Often the overall result can identify the race level - E.g. if the
3rd, 4th and 5th finish together then they can be assumed to
have run to their handicap.
By comparing against the performance of the “line horse” the
performances of the other horses in the race can be
determined.
Do the HANDICAP
Horse
1600m Handicap
KG Margins/Lengths Equiv Comp*
Adjustments
1st FLOWER BOWL 55
-
-
0
+4
5 points
2nd PAINTER
55
Nk
0.25
1
+3
2 points
3rd WOOD OWL
55
0.5
0.75
2
+2
1 point
4th PAPER CHASE
55
1
1.75
4
0
0 points
5th PHONE CALL
55
3
4.75
10
-6
-2 points
6th PRINCE
55
2.75
7.50
15
-11
-3 points
There are no valid excuses in the race
Line Horse - No Adjustment.
*Comp = the performance of each horse compared to the line horse
Set Weight Race (WFA) 1600m
RACE ASSESSMENT
RESULT
Horse
FIN
ASSESSMENT
Lengths
behind
winner
Drag
Adj
(1/2 kg)
Pre
Race
Rating
Actual
Actual
Actual
Actual
Weight
Weight
Rating
Rating
Performance Performance Performance difference
against
against line against line
against
winner
horse
horse
Line horse
KG
New
Pen/
Rating Relief
77
(+2)
EATON SQUARE
1 58
1.75
0
75
58
60
7563
0
(+4)
FURY
2 58
1.75
4
58
56
58
7159
(+13)
(+1)
59
0
RIO GRANDE
3 58
2
4
59
56
58
7159
(+12)
0
59
0
VICTORY PATCH
4 55
2.75
6
51
52
54
6351
0
(+12)
51
0
PINK CHAMPAGNE
5 55
6.75
14
50
48
50
5543
(-7)
(+5)
48
(-2)
COMPLETE HARMONY
6 55
7.25
15
44
47.5
49.5
5442
(-2)
(+10)
42
(-2)
TITAN DRAGON
7 58
10.5
22
41
47
49
5341
0
(+12)
41
0
Line Horses
RIO GRANDE ; VICTORY PATCH ;
TITAN DRAGON = ‘Line Horses’
FURY runs within 1 point.
Now, if we were to assume that EATON
SQUARE is the line horse
Do the ratings fit?
Even though he has won it is clear that EATON
SQUARE cannot be used as the key to rate this race. If
he is assumed to have run to his rating then all the
other horses have run well above their pre-race rating
assessments - a highly unlikely event.
Weight-for Age
Scale that measures physical progress of the
thoroughbred horse as he matures.
Basic Principles
Sprinters mature more quickly than stayers.
It is harder to carry weight the further one goes.
Weight for Age
In 1855 Admiral Rous introduced a table that measures the progress of
maturity that takes place on average in every thoroughbred. It expresses, in
terms of weight, what horses of different ages, over a given distance, at
different times of the year, should carry to equalise any difference in maturity.
Although introduced nearly 150 years ago the Admiral's WFA Scale has stood
the test of time. This scale, with only minor variations, is applied throughout
the racing world.
Weight-for-Age is best described as the physical progress a horse makes as
it matures. By the age of 18-24 months a horse will have achieved 95% of it's
mature height and weight, and by the age of four full maturity will be reached.
In general term's sprinters mature more quickly than stayers , and the scale
takes this into account. From a handicapping point of view the immaturity
factor must be taken into consideration when assessing a young horse's
performance, and where necessary the appropriate compensation should be
credited.
Adjustments to Ratings
In merit handicapping a horse's rating is adjusted based on performance.
There is no arbitrary or standard penalty.
In handicap races it can be assumed that the winner has 'beaten the handicap'
and as such his performance will not be used as the yardstick to rate the race.
There are occasions when the second, third or even fourth placed horses will
be rated as having 'beaten the handicap'. A handicapper will base his race
assessment on his interpretation of the performance of the line horse(s) and
adjustments to ratings of other horses will be made relative to these horses
and with consideration of the animal's overall rating profile.
In races where the weight allocations are made by terms or conditions the
assessment of the race is a lot less straightforward.
In a level weight contest the horse with the highest rating is more likely to win, if
he doesn't there are likely to be tangible reasons as to why he didn't - for
example the distance of the race did not suit. But here again, the line horses will
provide a clue as to the level of ratings of the horses in the race.
In these races it is quite possible that a winner may receive a rating adjustment
that is less than a placed horse.
Adjustments to Ratings
Remember, the rating assessment is a matter of comparing performance
against weight carried against what opposition.
When making adjustments to a horse's rating the previous record of the animal is
taken into account. Most horses reveal their level of ability early in their careers,
therefore out of character performances must be treated with caution.
The aim of rating adjustments is to 'level the playing field', a winner must still
remain competitive, and the beaten horses must have rating adjustments where
necessary to make them more competitive.
Over a period of time the cross-referencing of many lines of form establishes
where a horse fits in terms of the whole population.
This, in effect, is what is known as the 'long handicap' where the measured ability
of the animal, as reflected by his rating, places him at some position in an
imaginary handicap for all horses.
The relative abilities of two different animals can then be quantitatively gauged,
even to be compared with horses from different eras or generations.
The General Guidelines to rating Reassessments.
(1)
Winners receive an upwards adjustment based on the margin and manner of victory,
quality of opposition and weight differentials.
(2)
Placed horses receive necessary adjustments based on proximity to the ‘Line Horse’.
(3)
Unplaced runners receive relief based on overall performance profile.
Winners
Placed
Unplaced
2 to 10 points in Handicaps. 2 or more points in Terms Races.
High assessments are possible in Fixed Weight and WFA races.
0 to 5 points as determined by
performance against ‘Line Horse.
Placed horses in non-features
races are not promoted in Class.
0 to 8 points relief based on
Performance Profile.
Last start winner, Veterinary excuse
and returning from layoff - No Relief
Open Benchmark 67 - 1600m
Example of Race Assessment and Rating Adjustments
RESULT
ASSESSMENT
LBH
Drag
Adj
Pre
RR
Actual
New
LH Adj Rating
Pen/
Relief
Reason
Horse
STAR SAPPHIRE
FIN KG
1 55
-
0
59
63
(+4)
65
(+6)
Won easily
CASH FORTUNE
2 55
1.3
3
59
60
(+1)
60
(+1)
Wide on turn
ZHALUTE
3 55
1.8
4
60
60
0
60
0
Line horse
MAUMILL'S MAGIC
4 55
2.3
5
59
58
(-1)
59
0
Held up 200m
JESTER'S ROMANCE
5 51
3.5
7
52
49
(-3)
51
(-1)
Not competitive
JUNESON
6 54
4.3
9
58
53
(-5)
56
(-2)
Not competitive
STRATEGIC ALLIANCE
7 55
4.5
9
60
55
(-5)
60
0
Last start winner
DOUBLE TAP
8 55
4.6
9
59
54
(-5)
56
(-3)
CRYSTAL CITY
9 59
4.6
9
67
62
(-5)
67
0
NARCISSUS
10 56
6.3
13
61
52
(-9)
58
(-3)
Not competitive last 5
EAGER EAGLE
11 58
7.5
15
66
55
(-11)
64
(-2)
Not competitive last 2
YABONGA
12 55
8.3
17
59
46
(-13)
59
0
3 month layoff
SECRET SUCCESS
13 53
19
38
56
22
(-34)
56
0
Vet report
GREEN LIGHT
14 53
20
40
56
24
(-36)
56
0
Vet report
Not competitive last 5
Very slow to jump
Legend
ZHALUTE = ‘Line Horse’
Fin = Finishing Position
KG = Weight Carried
LBH = Lengths behind the winner
Drag Adj = adjustment made against the winner for the beaten margin
Pre = Pre Race Rating of the horse
RR = Race Rating for the horse
Actual LH Adj = points adjustment against the “Line Horse”
New Rating = The actual rating of the performance
Pen/Relief = The handicappers final rating based on assessment
HANKS
5/g
Date
Class
Dist
KG
12-Aug-00
27-Aug-00
09-Sep-00
23-Sep-00
14-Oct-00
21-Oct-00
29-Oct-00
09-Feb-01
03-Mar-01
14-Apr-01
27-Apr-01
11-May-01
26-May-01
08-Jun-01
07-Jul-01
14-Jul-01
04-Aug-01
11-Aug-01
CL4
CL3
CL3
CL3
CL2
BTT
CL2
CL2
CL2
CL2
CL3-1
CL2
BM90
CL3
CL2
CL2
BM95
BM80
1600
1600
2000
1600
1400
2000
1800
1000
1200
1400
1400
1600
1600
1400
1400
1600
1400
2000
59
57
58
58
53.5
53.5
54.5
52
52
52.5
59
54
52
59
55.5
54
50.5
57.5
Finish Margin
1
3
4
1
8
3
7
10
12
6
3
2
4
1
4
2
9
9
0.5
5.3
0.4
0.1
8.6
3.5
6.9
11.9
9.5
2.75
0.85
0.75
2
0.05
1.05
3.25
6.25
50
Race
Rating
1st/2nd
NOBLE LIGHT
EMPEROR'S FLAG
TACOBARRY
BIG BORIS
GOLDEN FLAG
STRONG WIN
SUPREME ECHO
GOLD BULLET
ALWAYS MINE
HORSE PROSPERITY
SETON HALL
LORD BERTIE
KERES ATTACK
CONTANDO
GALA BOY
CONTANDO
CONTANDO
MAUNGATAUTIRI
Looking at his overall rating profile and recent
form what is a fair rating at this point in time?
75
75
81
72
77
67
81
68
46
61
74
75
78
74
80
78
77
69
5
Real advantages of a Merit System of
Handicapping.
• Internationally recognised Handicapping System.
• Merit System
• Merit
provides for competitive racing.
System provides link to the International
Classifications.