RES market
ODNAWIALNE ŹRÓDŁA
ENERGII
statistics
and regulations
W POLSCE
Polish Economic Chamber of Renewable Energy
Michał Ćwil
Polska Izba Gospodarcza Energii Odnawialnej
5th Sept. 2012
Warsaw, PIGEO Office
Who we are & what we do?
Polish Economic Chamber of Renewable Energy
Our members
Our members
We are a member of wide range umbrella organizations
European Wind Energy Association
European Renewable Energies Federation
European Biogas Association
The Polish RES Coordination Board
The Polish Chamber of Commerce
Polish Coordination Board for Renewable Energy Sources
Organizations representing renewable energy sources in Poland
initiated by PIGEO on 5th of September 2008
Education activities
III edition: from October 2012:
Ivestment and & management of projects in
RES – postgraduated studies
www.studiaenergiaodnawialna.pl
A huge event we organize periodically
www.kongresgreenpower.pl
Total cumulative installed capacity (electrical one) in RES in
Poland (MW)
Cumulative power installed [MW]
Type of RES
(1)
Biogas*
Biomass excluding biomass
cofired with coal
2005 r.
2006 r.
2007 r.
2008 r.
2009 r.
2010 r.
2011 r.
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
31.972
36.760
45.699
54.615
70.888
82.884
103.487
189.790
238.790
255.390
231.990
252.490
356.190
409.680
0.001
0.033
1.125
PV
Wind
83.280
152.560
287.909
451.090
724.657
1 180.272
1 616.361
Hydro
852.495
934.031
934.779
940.576
945.210
937.044
951.390
Total
1 157.537
1 362.141
1 523.777
1 678.271
1 993.246
2 556.423
3 082.043
*)
including agricultural biogas installations registered by Agrucultural Biogas Agency
Installed capacity in wind in Poland
Cumulative. MW
1616
1180
725
451
83
2005
153
2006
288
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Electricity generation from RES in Poland
GWh
12 000
10 986
Biogas
Solid biomass
10 000
Co-firing of biomass
8 594
Wind
8 000
Hydro
6 493
6 000
4 000
11 356
5 230
4 222
3 760
2 000
2 957
1 822
257
135
1 035
806
472
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
*
*)
Based on data of 5th March 2012 of Energy Regulatory Office – but however part of electricity generated from biomass in a cofiring technology are not included yet.
A present support schame of green certificates in the electricity sector in
Poland
12
198.9 zł / MWh
 The warranty purchase at
the minimum price (annual
average price of previous
year).
< 286.74 zł / MWh

Green certificates are issued by the President of the ERO at the
request of the RES producer. It is possible to obtain certificates for
commissioning period, up to 60 days.

Price is not guaranteed. Its maximum value is determined by the
published unitary replacement fee, which shall be increased annually
by inflation.

Companies selling energy to final customers are obliged to purchase
green certificates - alternatively, these companies can realize the
obligation by paying an appropriate replacement fee.

The price is the same for all types of RES.

Certificates can be sold in a bilateral agreement or at the Power
Exchange. Typically, the stock market price of certificates is higher
than the long-term contracts by 10-15%.

The mechanism operates throughout the lifetime of a generating
unit, but the certificates are set only to 2017
 Seller of office after joining
the unit RES is required to
purchase the entire
quantity of electricity
generated.
 The price is the same for all
types of renewable energy
 The mechanism operates
throughout the lifetime of a
generating unit
Where the producer of electricity from RES sells electricity?
13

To the seller of the office in which it operates

To any energy company licensed for trading in electricity

By TGE (Polish Power Exchange): 1 / by the brokerage house or 2 / directly
- at current market prices
Producers of renewable energy generally sign a framework agreement with the energy
company (annual, long-term) on the sale of electricity and property rights for green
certificates.
If the owner of the RES realizes RES project under loan, Bank requires the signature of
long-term contracts for electricity and certificates.
How is marketing of green certificates look like?
14
Property rights to the green certificates can be disposed of (in the case of RES producer)
or buy (in the case of a company obliged) in three ways:
 in transactions on the trading session RPM, cleared by IRGiT
 in the off-session transactions with guaranteed settlement by IRGiT, or
 in transactions not cleared by the off-session IRGiT.
Quotations session of the RES property rights (contracts PMOZE and PMOZE_A) take place
two days a week - on Tuesdays and Thursdays (excluding public holidays). Trading on these
contracts off-session takes place on Mondays and Wednesdays.
To be able to sell or buy a property rights arising from certificates of origin is
necessary to obtain the status of a member of the Register of Certificates of
Origin and employment of a commodity broker or use the services of the
brokerage house is a member of TGE.
Unitary prices of electricity and unitary replacement fee
in recent years (PLN / MWh)
15
350
300
250
240
242.4
248.46
258.89
267.95
197.21
200
274.92
195.32
286.74
198.9
155.4
150
117.49
119.7
128.8
100
50
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
The unit value of the replacement fee determines the green certificate price trends and sets
(apart from the later discussion of Excise Duty) the maximum price for green certificates.
Certificate prices also depend on supply and demand. These in turn depend on the level of duties
established in Ordinances (see next slides of the presentation).
Unitary prices of electricity (gray) and unitary replacement
fee (green) in recent years – it total it not represents the income
16
600
500
PLN / MWh
400
300
200
100
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
The green certificate price is usually lower than unitary replacement fee by around 15%,
especially in long-term contracts.
Prices for wholesale electricity in the future (market)
17
Because of the restrictions related to reduction in CO2 emissions resulting from
the climate package, it is expected that electricity price in Poland will increases
rapidly in the future, especially after 2016 when the entire amount of CO2
emission allowances will have to be acquired by the companies producing
electricity basing on conventional sources.
Today, more than 90% of gross electricity in Poland is produced from coal.
Average sales price of certificates under Power Exchange
Based on: TGE
18
PLN/MWh
2006
2007
2008
2009
weighted average
index OZEX
OZEX
Średnioważony
indeks
Średnioważony
indeks
weighted average
index OZEX_A
OZEX_A
2010
listopad
wrzesień
lipiec
maj
marzec
styczeń
listopad
wrzesień
lipiec
maj
marzec
styczeń
listopad
wrzesień
lipiec
maj
marzec
styczeń
listopad
wrzesień
lipiec
maj
marzec
styczeń
listopad
wrzesień
lipiec
maj
marzec
styczeń
listopad
wrzesień
lipiec
maj
marzec
monthly
styczeń
300,00
280,00
260,00
240,00
220,00
200,00
180,00
160,00
140,00
2011
weighted average
of transactions
off-session PMOZE
średnioważona
w transakcjach
pozasesyjnych
PMOZE
weighted average
of transactions
off-session PMOZE_A
średnioważona
w transakcjach
pozasesyjnych
PMOZE_A
2 000 000
2006
2007
2008
2010
2011
listopad
wrzesień
lipiec
maj
marzec
styczeń
listopad
wrzesień
lipiec
MWh
maj
marzec
styczeń
listopad
lipiec
2009
wrzesień
maj
marzec
styczeń
listopad
wrzesień
lipiec
maj
marzec
styczeń
listopad
wrzesień
lipiec
maj
marzec
styczeń
listopad
wrzesień
lipiec
marzec
0
styczeń
1 000 000
maj
PMOZE_A PMOZE_A
miesięczny
wolumen
w transakcjach
monthly
volume of transactions,
off-sessionpozasesyjnych
PMOZE_APMOZE_A
miesięczny
wolumen
nasession
sesji
monthly
volume of the
PMOZE miesięczny
wolumen
w transakcjach
PMOZE monthly
volume of transactions,
off-sessionpozasesyjnych
PMOZE
monthly
volume
of
the
session
PMOZE miesięczny wolumen na sesji
Two types of green certificates of origin
19
PMOZE - the supply of property rights to green certificates arising from certificates of
origin which confirms the production of electricity from RES in the period up to 28
February 2009
PMOZE_A - the supply of property rights to green certificates arising from certificates
of origin which confirms the production of electricity from RES in the period from 1
March 2009 (with a possible excise tax deduction).
The amount of excise duty per unit of energy amounts to 20 PLN / MWh. Therefore, the
stock market has the possibility to sale green certificates at a price higher than the unitary
replacement fee by approximately half the value of the excise tax, which is about 10 PLN
/ MWh of green certificate. The company obliged to purchase certificates could get full
20 PLN / MWh excise duty back after redemption of green certificates.
The obligations imposed on companies seling electricity to final customers – duties
referend to total electricity consumptions in Poland
20
•
Existing levels of duties (Ordinance
14.08.2008r)
•
•
•
•
•
•
2012 – 10.4% ... oversupply could be
2013 – 10.9%
2014 – 11.4%
2015 – 11.9%
2016 – 12.4%
2017 - 12.9%
... what happened after 2017?
yearly
ca. 155 TWh
Production
(gross)
yearly
ca. 116 TWh
Self
consumption
Transmission
and
distribution
(loses)
net final
consumption
The obligations imposed on companies seling electricity to final customers – duties
referend to total electricity consumptions in Poland
21
•
yearly
ca. 155 TWh
Production
(gross)
Self
consumption
Existing levels of duties (Ordinance
14.08.2008r)
• 2012 – 10.4%
Level of duties under draft
• 2013 – 10.9%
Ordinance 4.01.2012)
• 2014 – 11.4%
• 2012 – 10.4%
• 2015 – 11.9%
• 2013 – 12%
• 2016 – 12.4%
• 2014 – 13%
• 2017 - 12.9%
• 2015 – 14%
• 2016 – 15%
• 2017 – 16%
• 2018 – 17%
• 2019 – 18%
rocznie
• 2020 – 19%
ok. 116 TWh • 2021 – 20%
Transmission
and
distribution
(loses)
net final
consumption
less than in NREAP.
why?
Targets for RES in 2020
20%
Target of RES for the EU
Target for RES in Poland
15.5%
Electr.
H&C
Trans.
Sectoral targets for Poland
19%
17%
10%
23
Support systems based on the draft Act
published in December 2011
The proposed system of green certificates support in the electricity
sector for all RES excluding microinstallations (all RES bigger than 40
kW)
24
198.9 zł / MWh
< 286.74 zł / MWh
 No purchase
 Green certificates are issued by the President of the ERO at
guaranted
anymore.
 Price is not guaranteed. Its maximum value is determined by
 No price
guaranted is
applied
anymore.
the request of the RES producer only for 15 years.
the published unitary replacement fee. But there will be
new method of its calculation.
 Companies selling energy to final customers are obliged to
purchase green certificates - alternatively, these companies
can realize the obligation by paying an appropriate
replacement fee.
 Price is not the same for all types of RES. Correction factors
are introduced.
 The mechanism does not operate throughout the lifetime of
a generating unit, only for 15 years from benefiting of the
support system.
25
Support systems based on the draft Act
published in July 2012
The proposed system of green certificates support in the electricity
sector for all RES excluding microinstallations (all RES bigger than 40
kW) and excluding some small insltallations up to 200 kW
26
198.9 zł / MWh
 The warranty
purchase. But in a
modified form. In
order to get green
certificates the
electricity can
only be sell to the
seller of officio at
minimum price.
 After the entry
into force an
annual increase by
a rate of inflation
is applied for
electricity price.
< 286.74 zł / MWh
 Green certificates are issued by the President of the ERO at the
request of the RES producer only for 15 years.
 Price is not guaranteed. Its maximum value is determined by the
published unitary replacement fee. No annual inflation is applied
anymore.
 Companies selling energy to final customers are obliged to
purchase green certificates - alternatively, these companies can
realize the obligation by paying an appropriate replacement fee.
 Price is different for different type of RES. Correction factors
are introduced. It will be another mechanism of calculating the
replacement fee than presented in December 2011. Ministry
are going to return to a functioning methodology.
 The mechanism does not operate throughout the lifetime of a
generating unit, but it is applied only for 15 years from start-up
process.
Some proposed correction factors to be applied in 2013
27
 Wind onshore:
0,9
 Wind offshore:
1,8
 Biogas Agro > 1 MWel:
1,4
 Biogas Agro (0,5 – 1 MW):
1,45
 Cofiring of biomass:
0,3
 Large hydro:
2,3
 Large biomass:
0,95
 PV:
2,85
How to foresee the revenues?
wind onshore for instance, PLN / MWh
28
Inflation of rate 2.5% is applied to electricity
The price of green certificate might be: (ca. 90% of replacement fee x 0,9)
The income per MWh might be represented by the sum of blue circles and green circles)
The proposed system microinstallations (up to 40 kW) and for some
small insltallations
29
Feed in Tariff system is applied
but no longer than up to 2027 !
The schedule of work under the Act of RES declared by the Ministry of
Economy
30
 June 15, 2012 (Act leaves the legal department)
 June 30, 2012 (Act is passed to the Parliament)
 January 1, 2013 (Act comes into force)
?
31
Discussion
Thank you for your attention
Michał Ćwil
Polska Izba Gospoadarcza Energii Odnawialnej
michal.cwil@pigeo.pl
Polska Izba Gospodarcza Energii Odnawialnej
ul. Gotarda 9. 02-683 Warszawa
Tel. +48 22 548 49 99. Fax +48 22 548 49 00
pigeo@pigeo.pl www.pigeo.org.pl