The Greek real estate market: recent developments and prospects Theo Mitrakos Head of Real Estate Analysis Section Bank of Greece February 2012 BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Outline Available short-term indicators for the monitoring and analysis of the real estate market in Greece Specific features of the Greek housing market Residential property prices in EU and Greece Number of transactions in the Greek real estate market Private building activity and residential investment Business expectations in construction Financing of the real estate market and financial stress Real property taxation and “objective” values Real estate developments and prospects in Greece: final conclusions BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Initiatives in the Bank of Greece Data collection from credit institutions Quarterly Residential Property Price Indices (Press Releases) Short-term Indicators for the Greek real state market (revised every two weeks) Quarterly survey among the real estate agencies Data on transactions in the real estate market from various sources Regular monitoring and reporting of short-term developments and prospects in the housing market in the publications of the BoG BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Available short-term indicators Price indices on residential property and rents Indices of residential property transactions Construction cost Indices for new residential buildings Construction activity Business expectations in construction Investment in construction and capital inflows Financing of the real estate market (outstanding amount of housing loans, interest rates) Indicators of financial stress BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM ELSTAT: Hellenic Statistical Authority, BoG: Bank of Greece, DSA: Athens Bar Association, Ktimatologio: Hellenic National Cadastre Residential Property Prices across euro area countries (average annual percentage change) Residential property prices (nominal) in the euro area (annual percentage changes) Weight Belgium Germany Estonia Ireland Greece Spain France Italy Cyprus Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Austria Portugal Slovenia Slovakia Finland Euro area BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM 3.8 26.7 0.2 1.8 2.6 11.7 21.3 17.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 6.4 3.1 1.9 0.4 0.7 1.9 100.0 1999-2008 8.9 -0.3 9.3 9.7 12.2 10.9 6.9 10.9 8.3 7.3 1.7 3.1 5.8 6.4 2009 -0.4 0.6 -35.9 -13.7 -3.7 -6.7 -7.1 -0.4 -4.1 -2.1 -5.0 -3.3 3.6 0.4 -8.2 -11.1 -0.3 -2.9 2010 5.4 2.3 0.1 -15.5 -4.7 -2.0 6.4 0.1 -2.5 4.5 1.1 -2.0 5.7 1.8 2.8 -3.9 8.7 1.9 Source: BIS and ECB Monthly Bulletin, November 2011 (http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/mobu/mb201111en.pdf ) 2011 H1 2011 Q1 Q2 3.1 6.4 -11.8 -4.9 -5.5 8.3 0.9 4.0 -1.3 -1.6 0.4 -2.7 3.7 1.7 3.2 2.2 -11.1 -5.2 -4.1 8.9 2.4 -2.6 -1.2 3.9 0.6 1.1 -2.5 4.2 2.3 3.0 10.7 -12.4 -4.5 -6.8 7.7 5.7 0.0 -1.9 0.2 -2.8 3.2 1.1 Residential Property Prices across euro area countries (average annual percentage change) The annual growth of Euro Area house prices decelerated in the first half of 2011, from 2,8% in 2010 H1 1999-2008: +5.6%, 2009: -2.9%, 2010: +1.9% 2011 H1: +1.7% (2011 Q1: +2.3%, Q2: +1.1%) Only in few countries house price growth continued to recover (Estonia, Luxembourg, France) Divergent developments across euro area countries, with highest price growth in Estonia and France and lowest in Greece, Ireland and Spain. Demand side: uncertainty with regard to income and affordability has been increasing The overvaluation of euro area house prices built up prior to financial crisis has gradually declined, from its peak of around 15% in 2007 to around 10% in 2011. BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Source: ECB Monthly Bulletin, November 2011 (http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/mobu/mb201111en.pdf ) Specific features of the Greek housing market The construction industry in Greece is fragmented (particularly in the residential market, 10-15,000 firms) High rate of home ownership (80%) and low mobility of land market Significant impact of fiscal measures in the housing market High transaction costs and low trading volume over the stock Non-homogeneous product (residential property) The supply responds slowly and with a significant lag in demand signals (lack of land, construction time, issuing building permit and financing, etc.) BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Residential Property Prices in Greece Index: 2007=100 20 94 15 74 10 54 5 34 0 Growth rate (right-hand scale) Nominal Real -6 Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ Ι ΙΙΙ 14 -5 -10 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Cumulated adjustment of -21,5% in real terms and -12,9% in nominal terms since the current financial crisis (2009 - 2011 Q3) BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Source: BoG % Change y-o-y Residential Property Prices 114 Indices of Prices of Dwellings and Rents (Average annual percentage change) 20 15 10 Urban areas Athens Other urban areas Price Index of Rents 5 0 2004 III 2005 III 2006 III 2007 III 2008 III 2009 III 2010 III 2011 III* -5 I I I I I I I I* -10 -15 BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM The rate of change in rents has declined slightly but has remained positive during the current financial crisis (2008: 3.9%, 2009: 3.6%, 2010: 2.4%, 2011 10months: 1.0%) Source: House Price Index (BoG), Price Index of Rents (ELSTAT) Residential Property Price Indices: recent developments Relative strong persistence of apartment prices (2008: 1.7%, 2009: -3.7%, 2010: -4.7%, 9months 2011: -4.6%) Stronger decline in the prices of "old" apartments during the crisis and relatively stronger persistence of newly-built apartments typically available for sale by construction firms Annual percentage changes 2008 2009 2010 2011 (9M) New (up to 5 years old) 2,3 -2,0 -4,2 -3,5 Old (5 years old and above) 1,3 -4,8 -5,0 -5,2 Athens Thessaloniki Other cities Other areas 0,9 1,5 1,8 3,3 -4,6 -6,0 -2,7 -1,9 -3,2 -7,4 -5,3 -5,8 -5,8 -6,3 -3,6 -2,4 Stronger decline in house prices according to real estate agencies BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Source: BoG House price-to-rent ratio (overvaluation) House price-to-rent-ratio 20 115 Average annual change in the house price index (left-hand scale) Price-to-rent ratio (2007=100, right-hand scale) 110 15 105 100 10 95 90 5 85 80 0 75 70 -5 65 -10 60 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I* II*III* 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 The house price-to-rent ratio has been declining continuously, reaching levels seen in 2001, indicating that in some extent a correction of overvaluation of house prices has already taken place. BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Sources: House Price Index (BoG), Price Index of Rents (ELSTAT) Construction Cost Indices of (new) residential buildings (average annual percentage change) 10 Total Cost Materials Cost Labour Cost 8 6 4 2 0 -2 2004 I III 2005 I III 2006 I -4 III 2007 I III 2008 I III 2009 I III 2010 I III 2011 III* I* Despite the recession, construction costs and particularly construction materials remained high in 2010 (Total cost: 1.8%, Materials: 3.0%) and in the first 9 months of 2011 (Total cost: 1.2%, Materials: 2.9%). The high cost of replacement of old residential buildings with new impedes a further decline in prices. BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Source: ELSTAT Index of Residential Property Prices and number of transactions-appraisals Index of Residential Property Prices (nominal) and transactions 105 45 Number of transactions (in thousands, right-hand scale) Index (left-hand scale) Index: 2007=100 100 40 35 30 95 25 20 90 15 10 85 5 80 0 Ι ΙΙΙ 2006 Ι ΙΙΙ 2007 Ι ΙΙΙ 2008 Ι ΙΙΙ 2009 Ι ΙΙΙ 2010 Ι ΙΙΙ 2011 The current crisis in the real estate market reflected also in a strong decline in the number of transactions-appraisals. BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Source: BoG Residential property transactions: recent developments On the supply side, existence of a substantial stock of new houses, which stabilized in 2010 and 2011 (150,000-180,000 housing units) Significant drop in the number of transactions: Bank appraisals (residential) 2008 2009 2010 2011 (9M) -21.7% -35.7% -0.2% -43.0% ….. Number of notarial acts on real estate -5.8% -13.9% ….. Number of real estate transfers ….. -13.0% -25.5% -14.0% Contracts in the presence of a lawyer* -10.0% -18.0% Transfers in Athens Land Registry ….. ….. -16.3% -31.2% -15.5% -26.2% Much stronger reductions in the volume (in square meters) and mainly the value of transactions Buyers’ preference shifted towards smaller and more affordable properties Greater fall in the number of transactions in Athens Increase in the number of cash transactions BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM * Transactions in Athens area only Number of transactions in the real estate market Number of transactions in the real estate market 4.0 Total Greece Athens Turnover* (right-hand scale) 215.1 200 172.9 166.0 167.7 3.0 158.0 150 2.5 136.0 2.0 110.0 100 82.0 1.5 1.0 50 23.0 0.5 0 0.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011* *Turnover: Ratio of transactions to stock of housing units (%) BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM 3.5 Source: ELSTAT (2004-09), *BoG estimates (2010-11) Percentage Number of transactions (in thous.) 250 Private building activity (average annual percentage change) Number of Building Permits Floor Space of Buildings (in square meters) Volume of Buildings (in cubic meters) Cement Production Volume 40 % Change y-o-y 20 0 -10.9 -20 -14.3 -19.8 -23.7 -31.9 -35.4 -39.4 -44.0 -40 -60 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20117months* Large decrease in building activity during the current crisis and even sharper reduction in the first 7 months of 2011 BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Source: ELSTAT, * provisional data Residential investment and real house prices 18 110 Residential Investment in % of GDP Construction Investment in % of GDP Real House Price Index (2007=100, right-hand scale) 16 100 14 90 12 10 79.8 80 8 6.0 70 6 4 3.1 60 2 50 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 H1 Strong decline in residential investment (peaking at 11,7% of GDP in 2006, it declined rapidly to 5,0% in 2010 and 3,1% in 2011 H1). BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Sources: House Price Index (BoG, Real house prices deflated with HICP), Residential and Construction Investment, HICP and GDP (ELSTAT) Business expectations in Construction Significant and sustained decline in all indices of business expectations in construction during the period of the current crisis An equivalent reduction of business expectations in public works (2010:-1.0%, 2011 10-months: -40.8%) and an even more significant reduction in residential construction (2010: -32.4%, 2011 10-months: -45.1%) The months of assured production in residential property construction fell to 3.1 in October 2011, from 8.3 in 2010 and 11.0 in 2009 Total Construction General Index of Business Expectations Activity relative to previous quarter Planned future activity Prospects of employment, 3-4 months ahead 2009 2010 2011-Oct. -31.4 -16.1 -42.8 -32.1 -27.4 -39.0 -63.2 -46.4 -30.8 -36.1 -85.0 -37.5 Particularly important the role of business expectations in the recovery of the real estate market Expectations of further decline in prices in the next quarter (according to survey among the real estate agencies) BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Source: ΙΟΒΕ Domestic MFIs credit to households 35 Total Loans (stock) 30 Housing Loans (stock) (%) 12-month change 25 20 Stock of housing loans: 15 10 5 December 2005: 33.5% -//2006: 25.9% -//2007: 21.5% -//2008: 11.2% -//2009: 3.7% -//2010: -0.3% September 2011: -2.1% -5 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -2.1 -3.1 2011 -10 Continuous deceleration of the rate of change in outstanding loans to households and a significant tightening in the financing of residential property market. Cautious attitude of households to house purchase and selective attitude of banks to finance new mortgages BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Source: BoG Housing loans interest rates 6.0 5.8 5.5 (%) per annum 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.5 4.0 Interest rates on all new housing loans including charges 3.9 Interest rates on outstanding housing loans with initial maturity of over 5 years 3.6 3.6 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep 3.5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Continuous decline in mortgage rates from November 2008 to mid-2010. Recovery since March 2010 for the rates of new mortgages. BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Source: BoG - Including charges other than interest (handling fees, mortgage registration fees, etc.). Indicators of financial stress: Non-Performing loan ratio Non-performing loan ratio (%) 14.0 12.8 11.9 12.0 10.4 Total loans Housing loans 10.0 7.7 8.0 10.0 7.4 6.3 5.4 6.0 5.0 5.3 4.5 3.6 4.0 3.4 3.6 2006 2007 2.0 0.0 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q2 Continuous increase in households financial stress during the current crisis BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Source: BoG Real property taxation: recent reforms BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Increased tax burden and higher in taxation on real estate property 3.7 billion additional public revenues in 2012 through the taxation on real estate property, according to the new government budget The “objective” values in residential property are lower than the market values (ratio of about 0.63, but increasing) Higher ratio (“objective” to market value) in commercial real estate (0.66 in June 2011). However for approximately 10% of the commercial property units of REITS, the administrative value is higher than the market value (REITs Analysis: Eurobank Properties, Trastor, MIG Real Estate) The expected increase in administrative values as from 2012 will put additional burden on property owners and make the recovery of the market more difficult. The increase in administrative values should be combined with abolition of other taxes or reduction in tax rates (taxes on transactions, etc) Administrative to Market Value of Residential Properties 200 0,70 190 (In thousand euros) 180 0,63 170 0,65 0,60 160 150 0,55 140 0,50 130 0,47 120 0,45 Market value per housing unit 110 Ratio of "objective" to market value (right-hand scale) 100 0,40 I III 2006 I III 2007 I III 2008 I III 2009 I III 2010 I III 2011 Continuous increase in the ratio of “objective” to market value since 2006 BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Source: BoG Administrative to Market Value of Residential Properties Ratio of Administrative to Market Value of Residential Properties (2011) 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.65 0.64 0.63 0.64 0.61 0.62 0.60 0.58 0.56 0.56 0.54 0.52 0.50 Athens Thessaloniki Other cities Other areas Total Greece The “objective” values in residential property are lower (about 2/3) than the market values BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Source: BoG Ratio of Administrative to Market Value of Residential Properties in Athens: 2011 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.76 Center (Kolonaki, Filopappou, Acropoli etc) 0.68 South (Argyroupoli, Alimos, Paleo Faliro etc) 0.65 Piraeus (center) East (Agia Paraskevi, Papagou, Cholargos etc) 0.63 South (Voula, Glyfada etc) 0.63 0.61 West (Peristeri, Petroupoli, Chaidari etc) West (Ilion, Acharnes etc) BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Source: BoG 0.80 0.77 Center (Omonia, Vathis, Kypseli etc) North (Kifisia, Dionysos, Penteli etc) 0.75 0.56 0.55 Real Estate Agents and Consultants Survey BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Assessment of the current situation in the housing market (1/2) Q1 7% 34% 59% - 2010 Q2 Q3 21% 67% 59% 33% 21% - Q4 8% 92% - Q1 24% 76% - Q2 6% 29% 66% - Q3 73% 20% 7% - Q4 - A2: In your view, what is the balance between Supply & Demand Much higher Supply Higher Supply Balanced Low Demand Much LowerDemand Q1 86% 7% 7% - 2010 Q2 Q3 97% 90% 0% 7% 3% 3% Q4 75% 25% - Q1 74% 19% 3% 3% - 2011 Q2 Q3 89% 93% 6% 7% 3% 3% - Q4 - A3: What is your assesment of the current house price level Very under-priced Under-priced Rational Over-priced Much over-priced Q1 21% 17% 59% 3% 2010 Q2 Q3 21% 7% 72% 90% 7% 3% Q4 17% 79% 4% Q1 3% 3% 18% 74% 3% 2011 Q2 Q3 11% 7% 49% 60% 31% 20% 9% 13% Q4 - A1: What is your assesment of the current situation compared to 3 months ago Much worse Worse Unchanged Better Much Better Deterioration of the housing market conditions Over-supply of houses Continuing rationalisation of the house prices BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Source: BoG 2011 Assessment of the current situation in the housing market (2/2) 2010 A4: What is your assesment of the current volume of house transactions compared to 3 months ago Much Lower Lower Unchanged Higher Much Higher A5: What is your assesment of the current house prices compared to 3 months ago Much Lower Lower Unchanged Higher Much Higher 2011 Q1 17% 21% 41% 21% - Q2 14% 17% 48% 21% - Q3 23% 40% 33% 3% Q1 21% 55% 24% - 2010 Q2 Q3 90% 53% 7% 43% 3% 3% - Q4 12% 17% 67% 4% - Q1 15% 41% 38% 6% - Q2 8% 34% 57% - Q3 40% 40% 13% 7% - 2011 Q4 25% 21% 54% - Q1 3% 73% 21% 3% - Q2 71% 26% 3% - Q3 7% 80% 13% - Strong reduction in house purchase transactions (also confirmed by the data of the Hellenic Cadastre) Prices showed a continuous decrease during 2011 BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Source: BoG Q4 - Q4 - Expectations in the housing market Q1 17% 55% 24% 3% - 2010 Q2 Q3 14% 37% 34% 23% 48% 30% 3% 10% - B2: What are your expectations about the volume of house transactions in the next quarter Much Lower Lower Unchanged Higher Much Higher Q1 14% 59% 24% 3% - 2010 Q2 Q3 14% 20% 34% 40% 45% 27% 7% 13% - Q4 21% 29% 50% - Q1 6% 18% 47% 29% - Q2 3% 32% 62% 3% - Q3 7% 80% 7% 7% - Q4 - B3: What are your expectations about the house prices in the next quarter Much Lower Lower Unchanged Higher Much Higher Q1 66% 34% - 2010 Q2 Q3 83% 83% 17% 17% - Q4 79% 21% - Q1 3% 68% 29% - 2011 Q2 Q3 3% 7% 54% 87% 43% 7% - Q4 - B1: What are your expectations about the housing market sitution in the next quarter Much worse Worse Unchanged Better Much Better Worsening expectations in the housing market Lower number of transactions Further weakening of house prices BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Source: BoG Q4 21% 46% 33% - Q1 6% 18% 44% 32% - 2011 Q2 Q3 3% 7% 18% 80% 68% 7% 12% 7% - Q4 - 2011 Assessment of the current situation in the commercial real estate market C1: What is your assessment of the current situation in the commercial real estate market compared to 3 months ago Economic Sentiment Index in the Commercial Real Estate Market 10 0 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q -10 2009 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Source: BoG Offices Stores Industrial 2010 2011 3Q Expectations in the commercial real estate market C9: What are your expectations about the commercial real estate market situation in the next quarter Expectation Index in the Commercial Real Estate Market 10 0 -10 1Q -20 2Q 3Q 2009 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Source: BoG Offices Stores Industrial 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 2010 4Q 1Q 2Q 2011 3Q Conclusions: Recent developments and prospects in the housing market (1/2) BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Relative reluctance on the demand side and tightness on the financing side On the supply side, the existence of a substantial property stock (available for sale) Relative strong persistence of house prices with a slight downward tendency in the next few months The overvaluation in house prices has been corrected gradually and its adjustment is probably not finished yet. Buyers’ preference shifted towards smaller (average area from about 97m2 in 2006 to 91m2 in 2011), existing (older) and more affordable apartments Cautiousness in developing new investment projects and general shift to more affordable commercial properties Conclusions: Recent developments and prospects in the housing market (2/2) BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Overall increase of empty commercial premises, rent decline, elimination of goodwill factor, renegotiation of lease contracts Negative short-term expectations (economic, employment, taxation, etc.) with a significant effect on the real estate market Expectations of a further small adjustment in prices in the housing market, with being rather low the risk of an abrupt change Increased tax burden and higher taxation on real estate property The recovery of the property market is linked directly to improving the expectations of households and businesses, reducing the prevailing uncertainty, financing the market by the banking system, but also the overall prospects for dealing with the problems of the Greek economy (fiscal, structural, etc.). BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Bank of Greece: Real Estate Market Analysis Section Thank you! For any queries, please contact: Bank of Greece Economic Research Department Real Estate Market Analysis Section 21, E.Venizelos Avenue, GR-102 50 Athens, Greece Telephone: + 30 210 320 2376, 3837 Fax: + 30 210 320 2660, 2423 Email: sec.realestate@bankofgreece.gr URL address: http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/en/Statistics/realestate/default.aspx BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM