ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Will International Migration
Continue Forever?
Reflections on Demography and Migration
Rainer Münz
KNOMAD Seminar
Washington DC, May 1st, 2014
Rainer Münz
Page 1
Unequal
population growth
Page 2
Europe’s and Russia’s population is shrinking,
MENA, Africa and W. Asia are growing
Projected population growth, 2010-2050, in %
to -20 %
-20% - -5%
-5% - 0%
0% - 25%
25% - 75%
75% - 100%
100% - 150%
150% - 200%
above 200%
n. a.
Source: Berlin Institute
Page 3
The main driver of this population change:
Very unequal numbers of children
Number of children per woman (total fertility), 2010-2015
Source: UN DESA
Page 4
During the last six decades, the overall
number of children per woman has halved
Total fertility by world regions, 1950-2015
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America
North America
Oceania
World
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1950-1955
1970-1975
1990-1995
Source: UN DESA
Page 5
2010-2015
Young and ageing societies
Page 6
Page 7
Since 170 years our life span has
always increased
Life expectancy, 1840-2010, in years (highest national value)
Norway
New Zealand
Island
Sweden
Japan
Netherlands
Switzerland
Australia
Source: Oeppen u. Vauoel 2002
Page 8
Europe + Japan have the oldest population,
MENA, Africa, South + SE Asia are still young
Share of age group 65+ in total population, in %
n. a.
to 3%
3% - 6%
6% - 9%
9% - 12%
12% - 15%
above 15%
Source: UN DESA
Page 9
Europe is aging
Population of EU 28 by age and gender
100
90
Europa wird älter
80
70
Age
Age
60
50
2050
40
2010
30
1950
20
10
0
1,00
0,75
0,50
0,25
men (2010)
Männer
men (2050)
Männer
0,00
in %
Source: Eurostat
Seite 10
0,25
women(2010)
(2010)
Frauen
women(2050)
(2050)
Frauen
0,50
0,75
1,00
Diverging trends affecting
future labour forces and
possibly labor migration
Page 11
The working-age population will shrink in
Europe and China, but not in Africa and India
Population age 20-65, 1950-2050, in mn, by major countries / regions
Source: UN DESA
Page 12
The labour supply in Europe and Russia will
shrink, but it will increase in MENA and Africa
Development of labour force until 2020, in %
?
below -5%
-5% - 0%
0% - 10%
10%- 20%
above 20%
Source: based on ILO data 2011
Page 13
Economic imbalances
Page 14
In recent years MENA and Africa were
growing while Europe had a recession
Average real GDP growth, 2008-12, in %
Source: IMF
Page 15
Emerging markets continue to
outgrow the advanced economies
Contribution to global GDP growth
Source: Financial Times
Page 16
Global migration in history
Page 17
Four global flows:
- Slave trade
- European expansion
- Indian migration
- Chinese migration
Page 18
European expansion, 1750-1960:
From settlement to labour migration
Central Asia,
Siberia
Palestine/Israel
Northern and
Southern America,
The Caribbean
Algeria
Australia,
New Zealand
South Africa
Migration
Europe’s
from
answer
Europe
toto
rapid
less
developeddestinations
growth
peripheries
70
mn
Europeans
migrated
to population
overseas’
Page 19
World migration, 1945-1950
Germany/Austria,
Poland/Ukraine, etc.
India/
Pakistan
China/Taiwan
Palestine/
Israel
More migrants in the global South than in the North
Page 20
ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Migration pattern today
Rainer Münz
Page 21
Migration
(a) stocks:
232 million
750 million
Page 22
Migration
(a) flows:
40 million
Page 23
The number of international migrants
increases
Absolute numbers and proportion of migrants in total population
1990
2000
2010
2013
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
There is, however, a lot of uncertainty
Double-entry matrix for selected EU countries, 2003
Origin
BE
CZ
DK
DE
EE
GR
ES
FR
IE
IT
BE
I
E
I
E
I
E
I
E
I
E
I
E
I
E
I
E
I
E
I
E
CZ
80
…
…
78
…
511
…
4623
…
…
…
…
…
647
…
…
…
…
…
1414
65
180
1228
8909
4
…
57
…
103
34
462
…
45
…
274
20
DK
587
…
232
47
3221
2712
169
…
278
…
1665
130
1488
…
306
…
895
155
I = Receiving country’s reported flow
E = sending country’s reported flow
… = no reported data available
DE
4291
…
9258
950
2693
2540
947
…
12959
…
14647
2109
18133
…
2046
…
23702
9778
Destination
EE
GR
…
…
…
…
…
…
2
66
…
…
133
229
…
…
597
18106
…
…
…
…
…
…
4
38
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
1
211
ES
3037
…
388
70
764
1720
13746
16236
60
…
273
…
8847
…
1649
…
5796
895
FR
…
…
…
283
…
1333
…
19060
…
…
…
…
…
2474
…
…
…
2933
IE
…
…
…
31
…
264
…
2415
…
…
…
…
…
487
…
…
IT
1959
…
915
197
281
782
12902
33802
103
…
638
…
2051
801
4647
…
292
…
…
130
Source: James Raymer
International migrants in 2013 by major
macro region of origin and destination
Emigrant stock: origin black
Immigrant stock: destination yellow
In: 53.1 m
Out: 4.3 m
In: 8.5 m
Out: 36.7 m
In: 72.4 m
Out: 58.5 m
In: 18.6 m
Out 30.9 m
In: 70.8 m
Out: 92.6 m
In: 7.9 m
Out: 1.8 m
Source: Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2013 Revision
Where do they come from?
Where do they go to?
International migrants by origin and destination, 1990, 2010, in mn
Source: United Nations, Population Division
Magnet societies: EU, US, Asia
International migrant stock by macro region, 1990 – 2013, in mn
2013
1990
Source: Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2013 Revision
Today migrants come from middleand low-income countries
Net migration rates 2005-2010 (annual average per 1000)
But most of today‘s migrant sending countries
will outgrow today‘s receiving countries
Average GDP growth forecast, 2012-18 (in % per year)
Data Source: IMF
Net migration in Europe 2001-2010
Net migration, yearly average, per 1000 inhabitants
below -5%
-5% to -2%
-2% to 0%
0 to +2
+2% to +5%
above +5%
.
Source: Eurostat, UN DESA
Page 31
Net migration in Europe 2010-2012
Net migration, yearly average, per 1000 inhabitants
below -5%
-5% to -2%
-2% to 0%
0 to +2
+2% to +5%
above +5%
Direction changed recently
.
Source: Eurostat and own calculations 2013
Page 32
Above income levels of US-$ 9,000 per
capita net-emigration stops
Annual average net migration per 1000 inhabitants (2005-10)
7
Net migration per 1000 inhabitants
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0 - 3000
3000 - 6000
6000 - 9000
9000 - 15000
15000 - 30000 30000 - 45000
45000+
-1
-2
-3
Gross National Income (GNI) per capita (in US $)
Data Source: UN; Erste Research
ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Migration patterns
tomorrow?
Rainer Münz
Page 34
The number of international migrants is
projected to increase further
Absolute numbers and proportion of migrants in total population
4.5%
3.9%
378
1990
2000
2010
2013
2000-2010 growth rate
1990-2000 growth rate
309
331
2010-2013 growth rate
3.7%
2030
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
The number of international migrants is
projected to increase further
Absolute numbers and proportion of migrants in total population
5.4%
4.6%
513
443
4.4%
1990
2000
2010
2013
2010-2013 growth rate
2000-2010 growth rate
1990-2000 growth rate
415
2050
Source: United Nations, Population Division
Net migratory flows to more developed
countries
1950-2010 (actual), 2010-2100 (different projections), in mn
All more developed
countries
Gravity model
UNPD
estimate
WPP2010
projection
xx
USA
Linear
model
xx
Source: Joel E. Cohen
Why does it matter?
Contribution of international migration to population
growth / decline by 2050 as proportion of the total
population in 2010
Per cent
Polynesia
Micronesia
Caribbean
Central America
Central Asia
Northern Africa
Western Africa
Melanesia
South-Central Asia
Southern Asia
Eastern Africa
Middle Africa
South-Eastern Asia
South America
Eastern Asia
Southern Africa
Eastern Europe
Western Asia
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Northern America
Australia/New Zealand
-45
-21
-14
-10
-8
-6
-4
-4
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
1
2
3
8
10
16
20
36
Source: Francois Pelletier
Where does it matter?
Contribution of natural growth and international migration to
population growth/decline, 1950-2050 , in mn
4/8/2015
39
Source: Henning; Cohen
ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Thank you for your attention!
rainer.muenz@erstegroup.com
Rainer Münz
Page 40