Statistics for Everyone Workshop Fall 2010 Part 1 Statistics as a Tool in Scientific Research: Summarizing & Graphically Representing Data Workshop presented by Linda Henkel and Laura McSweeney of Fairfield University Funded by the Core Integration Initiative and the Center for Academic Excellence at Fairfield University Statistics as a Tool in Scientific Research Types of Research Questions • Descriptive (What does X look like?) • Correlational (Is there an association between X and Y? As X increases, what does Y do?) • Experimental (Do changes in X cause changes in Y?) Different statistical procedures allow us to answer the different kinds of research questions Statistics as a Tool in Scientific Research Start with the science and use statistics as a tool to answer the research question Get your students to formulate a research question first: • How often does this happen? • Did all plants/people/chemicals act the same? • What happens when I add more sunlight, give more praise, pour in more water? Statistics as a Tool in Scientific Research Can collect data in class Can use already collected data (yours or database) Helping students to formulate research question: Ask them to think about what would be interesting to know. What do they want to find out? What do they expect? For example, what research questions might you ask from the survey? Descriptive, correlational, experimental Types of Data: Measurement Scales Categorical: male/female blood type (A, B, AB, O) Stage 1, Stage 2, Stage 3 melanoma Numerical: weight # of white blood cells mpg Types of Data: Measurement Scales Categorical: • Nominal (name/label) • Ordinal (rank order) Numerical: • Interval (equal intervals) • Ratio (equal intervals and absolute zero) Types of Data: Measurement Scales Nominal: numbers are arbitrary; 1= male, 2 = female Ordinal: numbers have order (i.e., more or less) but you do not know how much more or less; 1st place runner was faster but you do not know how much faster than 2nd place runner Interval: numbers have order and equal intervals so you know how much more or less; A temperature of 102 is 2 points higher than one of 100 Ratio: same as interval but because there is an absolute zero you can talk meaningfully about twice as much and half as much; Weighing 200 pounds is twice as heavy as 100 pounds Types of Data on Questionnaire 1. What College are you from? CAS Business Engineering Nursing Other 2. How many years have you been teaching at Fairfield University? 3. How important do you think it is to integrate statistics into your courses? Not at all Somewhat Important Important Very Important 4. How excited are you about integrating statistics into your courses? 1 Not at all excited 2 3 4 5 6 7 Extremely excited Types of Data on Questionnaire 5. Are you male or female? 6. How many hours a week do you watch television on average? 7. How many hours a day do you spend on the internet on average? 8. Of the following reality/game shows, which one would you most like to be on? (a) Dancing With the Stars (b) American Idol (c) Bachelor/Bachelorette (d) The Apprentice 9. Can you roll your tongue? Yes 10. How many siblings do you have? No Types of Statistical Procedures Descriptive: Organize and summarize data Inferential: Draw inferences about the relations between variables; use samples to generalize to population Descriptive Statistics The first step is ALWAYS getting to know your data Summarize and visualize your data It is a big mistake to just throw numbers into the computer and look at the output of a statistical test without any idea what those numbers are trying to tell you or without checking if the assumptions for the test are met. Descriptive Statistics Numerical Summaries: • Frequencies • Contingency tables • Measures of central tendency • Measures of variability • Representing numerical summaries in tables Graphical Summaries: • Bar graphs or Pie graphs • Histograms • Scatterplots • Time series plot Summarizing and Reporting Categorical Data Frequency = number of times each score occurs in a set of data Relative Frequency = percent or proportion of times each score occurs in a set of data Frequency Table Marital Status Frequency (f) Relative Frequency (rel f) Married 34 .14 Widowed 129 .54 Divorced 35 .15 Separated 30 .12 Never Married 13 .05 Total 241 1.00 Contingency Table A display to summarize two categorical variables in a table. Each entry in the table represents the number of observations in a sample with a certain outcome for the 2 variables. Contingency Tables Gender Binge Drinker Non-binge Drinker Total Male 1908 2017 3925 Female 2854 4125 6979 Total 4762 6142 10904 Contingency Tables Gender Binge Drinker Non-binge Drinker Total Male 49% 51% 3925 Female 41% 59% 6979 Total 4762 6142 10904 Choosing the Appropriate Type of Graph One categorical variable (e.g., Political party): Bar Chart or Pie Graph Two categorical variables (e.g., Political party vs. Gender): Side-by-side Bar Chart *Notice with 2 variables, one variable may be treated as the dependent variable and one variable may be treated as the independent variable. Choosing the Appropriate Type of Graph One numerical variable (e.g., Height): Histogram One numerical variable and one categorical variable (e.g., Height vs. Gender): Side-by-side Histograms Two paired numerical variables (e.g., Weight vs. Exercise per week): Scatterplot One numerical variable over time (e.g., Number of Cells vs. Minutes): Time Series Plot *Notice with 2 variables, one variable may be treated as the dependent variable and one variable may be treated as the independent variable. Bar Graph (Frequency) Example of Bar Chart with Frequencies 140 120 No. of Patients 100 80 60 40 20 0 Widowed Divorced Separated Marital Status Never Married Bar Graph (Relative Frequency) Example of Bar Chart with Relative Frequencies 0.6 Proportion of Patients 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Married Widowed Divorced Marital Status Separated Never Married Pie Chart Marital Status 5% 14% 12% Married Widowed Divorced 15% Separated Never Married 54% Simple Frequency Tables and Bar Graphs Side by Side Bar Charts Conditioned Proportions Male Female Binge Drinker 0.49 0.41 Nonbinge Drinker 0.51 0.59 0.70 Proportions 0.60 0.50 0.40 M 0.30 F 0.20 0.10 0.00 Binge Non-binge Histogram of Simple Frequency Data Side by Side Histograms Size Frequency Distribution for Female Crabs 4.5 4 3.5 Counts 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 11.0015.00 15.0019.00 19.0023.00 23.0027.00 27.0031.00 31.0035.00 35.0039.00 39.0043.00 43.0047.00 47.0051.00 43.0047.00 47.0051.00 CW (mm) Size Frequency Distribution for Male Crabs 14 12 Counts 10 8 6 4 2 0 11.0015.00 15.0019.00 19.0023.00 23.0027.00 27.0031.00 31.0035.00 CW (mm) 35.0039.00 39.0043.00 Scatterplot Percent Overweight Threshold of Pain 89 2 16 90 3 14 Example of Scatterplot 4 Threshold of Pain 75 12 10 30 4.5 51 5.5 75 7 4 62 9 2 45 13 90 15 20 14 8 6 0 0 20 40 60 Percent Overweight 80 100 Time Series Plot Software File Updates Number of Updates Month Number of Updates 1 323 2 268 3 290 4 405 5 383 6 368 ... ... 12 75 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 2 4 6 8 Month Number 10 12 14 Shapes of Distributions • Normal (approximately symmetric) • Skewed • Unimodal/Bimodal/Uniform/Other • Outliers The Normal Curve “Bell-shaped” Most scores in center, tapering off symmetrically in both tails Amount of peakedness (kurtosis) can vary Variations to Normal Distribution Skew = Asymmetrical distribution • Positive/right skew = greater frequency of low scores than high scores (longer tail on high end/right) • Negative/left skew = greater frequency of high scores than low scores (longer tail on low end/left) Histogram Showing Positive (Right) Skew Variations to Normal Distribution Bimodal distribution: two peaks Rectangular/Uniform: all scores occur with equal frequency Potential Outlier: An observation that is well above or below the overall bulk of the data Important to determine normality (look at the histogram of the data) so you can choose appropriate measures of central tendency and variability Variations to Normal Distribution Bimodal Distribution (two peaks) Number of People 25 20 15 10 Rectangular/Uniform Distribution (equal # highs and lows) 5 0 16 Weight 14 12 10 8 Number of People 100-119 120-139 140-159 160-179 180-199 200-219 220-239 6 4 2 0 100-119 120-139 140-159 160-179 180-199 200-219 220-239 Potential Outlier in Distribution Number of People Weight 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 100119 120139 140159 160179 180199 200219 Weight 220239 240259 260279 280299 Examples of Bad Graphs: What is Wrong With the Picture? 8.4 Pollen Count 8.3 8.2 8.1 8 7.9 7.8 7.7 On campus In town Location Pollen Count Examples of Bad Graphs: What is Wrong With the Picture? 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 On campus In town Location Pollen Count A BETTER Graph 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 On campus In town Location Average Pollen Count 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2006 2007 6 Year Pollen Count 5 4 3 2 1 0 Pollen Count 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 Example of a Bad Graph First Frequency Digit Graph the distribution of the first digits. 140 120 100 80 FIRST 60 NUMBER 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 109 75 77 4 99 5 6 7 8 72 117 89 62 9 43 Example of a Bad Graph First Frequency Digit Graph the distribution of the first digits. 140 120 100 80 NUMBER 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 109 75 77 4 99 5 6 7 8 72 117 89 62 9 43 Example of a GOOD Graph First Frequency Digit Graph the distribution of the first digits. Number of Occurances Distribution of the First Digits 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 First Digit 6 7 8 9 1 2 3 109 75 77 4 99 5 6 7 8 72 117 89 62 9 43 Example of a Bad Graph Graph the distribution of the number of bacteria in the cultures sampled. Bacteria 60 50 40 BAC 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Number of Bacteria 41 33 43 52 46 37 44 49 53 30 Example of a Bad Graph Graph the distribution of the number of bacteria in the cultures sampled. Number of Bacteria 41 33 43 52 Distribution of Bacteria Number of Samples 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 30.0033.00 33.0036.00 36.0039.00 39.0042.00 42.0045.00 45.0048.00 Number of Bacteria 48.0051.00 51.0054.00 54.0057.00 57.0060.00 46 37 44 49 53 30 Example of a GOOD Graph Graph the distribution of the number of bacteria in the cultures sampled. Number of Bacteria 41 33 43 52 Distribution of Bacteria Number of Samples 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 30.0040.00 40.0050.00 50.0060.00 60.0070.00 70.0080.00 80.0090.00 Number of Bacteria 90.00100.00 100.00110.00 110.00120.00 120.00130.00 46 37 44 49 53 30 Guidelines for Good Graphs • Label both axes and provide a heading to make clear what the graph is representing. • Vertical axes should usually start at 0 to help our eyes compare relative sizes. • Remove any clutter that isn’t needed or is distracting • The axes may need to be resized to remove extra white space • Be careful in using unusual bars since it can be easy to get the relative percentages that the figures represent incorrect. • Sometimes displaying information for more than one group on the same graph can be difficult especially when the values differ greatly. Consider using relative frequencies or separate graphs instead. Other Guidelines to Making Graphs • Y axis should be ¾ as tall as X axis • When the number of score values on X axis is large, scores should be collapsed so there are at least 5 intervals but no more than 12 • The width of each interval on the X axis should be equal • Frequency on the Y axis must be continuous and regular • Range on the Y axis and X axis must neither unduly compress nor unduly stretch the data Time to Practice • Looking at shape of distribution • Making graphs Teaching tips: • Hands-on practice is important for your students • Sometimes working with a partner helps