Power and Irrigation Subsidies An example for: Andhra Pradesh & Punjab Maximo Torero m.torero@cgiar.org International Food Policy Research Institute Based on paper by: Chowdhury, S and Torero, M; (2009). Power and Irrigation Subsidies in Andhra Pradesh & Punjab. IFPRI, Washington. IGC-ISI India Development Policy Conference Major stylized facts of the current pricing mechanism and subsidy scheme • Jump in electric pump use • Jump in the share of electricity consumption in agriculture • Huge deficit with respect to revenue • Growing imbalances: reduction of cross-subsidy and Subsidy substantially increased • Deterioration of supply • Environmental damage • Subsidy is regressive Page 2 Jump in electric pump use Irrigated Area (in lakh ha) and Sources in AI 600 547 500 400 300 247 217 200 160 104 100 1 0 Total Canal 1961-62 TW 2000-01 • Bet. 1960 and 2000, irrigated area more than doubled. • This came mostly from tube well (TW) irrigation. Source: Chowdhury, S and Torero, M; (2009). Power and Irrigation Subsidies in Andhra Pradesh & Punjab. IFPRI, Washington Page 3 Jump in electric pump use Irrigated Area (in lakh ha) and Sources in AP 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 45 30 16 13 11 0.2 Total Canal 1961-62 TW 2000-01 • In AP, the real changes take place in irrigation through TW. Source: Chowdhury, S and Torero, M; (2009). Power and Irrigation Subsidies in Andhra Pradesh & Punjab. IFPRI, Washington Page 4 Jump in electric pump use Irrigated Area (in lakh ha) and Sources in PJ 45 40 40 35 30 25 30 29 20 13 15 16 10 10 5 0 Total Canal 1970-71 TW 2000-01 • The role of TW in irrigation is even more prominent in PJ. • While the role of TW has been increasing, the canal irrigation has been declining in PJ. Source: Chowdhury, S and Torero, M; (2009). Power and Irrigation Subsidies in Andhra Pradesh & Punjab. IFPRI, Washington Page 5 Jump in electric pump use Energization of TW (in million) AI AP 14 12 12 10 8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 6 4 4 2 0 1981 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1998 PJ 1.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1981 1998 1981 1998 • With the increased role of TW in irrigation, the energization of TW took place in a rapid pace. Source: Chowdhury, S and Torero, M; (2009). Power and Irrigation Subsidies in Andhra Pradesh & Punjab. IFPRI, Washington Page 6 Jump in the share of electricity consumption in agriculture Electricity Consumption by Consumer Category, 1960-2001 80 70 (in %) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 1991 1992 Agriculture 1993 1994 Domestic 1995 1996 Industry 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Commercial • Effects of two – first, an increase in the number of pumps, and second, an increase in electricity consumption per pump set – has increased the demand for electricity in irrigation by many folds. • By 1998, agriculture emerged as a the largest consumer of electricity in India. Source: Chowdhury, S and Torero, M; (2009). Power and Irrigation Subsidies in Andhra Pradesh & Punjab. IFPRI, Washington Page 7 Huge deficit with respect to revenue Share of Agriculture in Consumption and Revenue (as a % of Total) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 consumption 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 revenue • However, the consumption share did not match with the revenue share, and created a financing gap as a result. Source: Chowdhury, S and Torero, M; (2009). Power and Irrigation Subsidies in Andhra Pradesh & Punjab. IFPRI, Washington Page 8 Growing imbalances (in Paise/Kwh) Cost of Supply, Avg. Ind. Tariff, Ag. Tariff, and Gross Subsidy 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1996-97 1997-98 Cost of Supply 1998-99 Avg. Ind. Tariff 1999-00 2000-01 Avg. Ag. Tariff 2001-02 Gross Subsidy • Partial reforms have not been helpful since the cost of supply has been going up while the agricultural tariff has not been reformed • A reduction in cross-subsidy has added to the odd further Source: Chowdhury, S and Torero, M; (2009). Power and Irrigation Subsidies in Andhra Pradesh & Punjab. IFPRI, Washington Page 9 Environmental damage Production Pattern and Ground Water Level Fall between 1981 and 2000 in Andhra Pradesh and Punjab (a) Andhra Pradesh (b) Punjab Page 10 Who are the beneficiaries? % of HHs owns Electric Pump Land Possession and Electric Pump Ownership 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 <0.1 <0.4 <0.6 <1 <2 <3 <5 <10 >=10 Land Possession (in Ha) AI AP PJ Source: Data from 54th round • There is a very strong link between land possession and electric pump ownership in AI, and in AP and PJ. Source: Chowdhury, S and Torero, M; (2009). Power and Irrigation Subsidies in Andhra Pradesh & Punjab. IFPRI, Washington Page 11 Distribution of subsidy All India 35 100 90 30 25 70 60 20 50 15 40 30 10 Total Irr. Area % of Total Irr. Area 80 20 5 10 t R Po ich es 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 or e 2 0 st 0 % of Total Irr. Area Total Irr. Area Source: Data from 55th round • Not surprisingly, the distribution of irrigated land is extremely skewed in the case of all India. Page 12 Source: Chowdhury, S and Torero, M; (2009). Power and Irrigation Subsidies in Andhra Pradesh & Punjab. IFPRI, Washington In AP? Andhra Pradesh 100 90 25 80 70 20 60 15 50 40 10 30 20 5 Total Irr. Area % of Total Irrigated Area 30 10 % of Total Irr. Area Ri 9 ch es t 8 7 6 5 4 3 0 2 Po or es t 0 Total Irr. Area Source: Chowdhury, S and Torero, M; (2009). Power and Irrigation Subsidies in Andhra Pradesh & Punjab. IFPRI, Washington Page 13 And in Punjab? 100 35 90 80 30 70 25 20 60 50 15 40 30 10 % of Total Irr. Area Ri 9 ch es t 8 7 6 5 0 4 0 3 20 10 2 5 Total Irr. Area (cumulative) 40 Po or es t % of Total Irrigated Area Punjab Total Irr. Area • And it is worse in Punjab! Source: Chowdhury, S and Torero, M; (2009). Power and Irrigation Subsidies in Andhra Pradesh & Punjab. IFPRI, Washington Page 14 Objective of this paper • Examine the general setting of subsidy in power for irrigation and canal irrigation • Identify alternative institutional mechanisms to rationalize the subsidies Page 15 From a Vicious Circle Exogenous Shocks: Green revolution Public objective: Low tariff Market outcome: Excess demand Imbalances: Showtfall in cross-subsidy Gap between tariff and cost Supply outcome: low quality, not reliable and limited availability SEBs: Low Supply availability Page 16 To a Virtuous Circle Exogenous Shocks: Green revolution Public objective: Low tariff Market outcome: Equilibrium Price discrimination: optimal consumer plans Supply outcome: high quality, reliable and availability SEBs: Supply availability Page 17 Methodology We follow a four step methodology: • Step 1: Estimate rural households demand for electricity • Step 2: Measure consumer welfare • Step 3: Explore alternative price schemes based on price discrimination theory – to better assign the current subsidy, – to identify ways through which it can be funded through the market. Page 18 The Data • Secondary sources: – Data aggregated at the level of the state and district – Household data • NSS 54th round (CPR) • NSS 55th round (Consumption) AI AP PJ 54th Round 55 th Round 78990 70818 5721 5109 2533 2142 Page 19 Step 1: Estimate rural households demand for electricity • Estimate rural households demand for electricity using the almost ideal demand system (AIDS) developed in Deaton and Muellbauer (1980) N good demand system: X wi i i log j ij log p j P are constant parameters and X is the representative expenditure on the system of goods given by: X i pi qi where qi is the quantity demanded for ith good P is the overall price index derived from: log P 0 i log pi i j ij log pi log p j Page 20 AIDS Elasticity's The own price elasticity for Andhra Pradesh and Punjab together is -0.5192, and the price elasticity for each of the consumer groups based on the size of their land possession can be summarized in: Own Price Elasticities of power consumption Andrah Pradesh All -0.67 Marginal/ Small holders -0.69 Medium holder -0.55 Large holders -0.50 Punjab -0.85 -0.91 -0.91 -0.86 Page 21 Step 2: Measure consumer welfare • Our welfare measure for a given socioeconomic level j, we define S ( pit ,.) j it Pmax j it q ( p,.) dp, pt Pmax as the maximum price the consumers will observe, which is instrumentalized by assuming different subsidy regimes • then including the flat installation charge as an annual installment, the total net surplus for all services is: ~ j Sit ( pit , rit ) Sit ( pt ) rit j Page 22 Step 3: Explore alternative price schemes based on price discrimination theory Non-linear tariffs based on second degree price discrimination Assumptions: • Asymetric information: the firm and the regulator don’t know the value assign by individuals (farmers) • The firm and the regulator know the distribution of probabilities q [ q , q* ] q ~ f(q ) ===> Disign of mechanisms Page 23 Step 3: Explore alternative price schemes based on price discrimination theory (Cont 1) 1. Discount for quantity: payment T t y p0 t p1 p n si si si 0 y x0 x 0 y x1 x n 1 y 2. Optional Plans: payment Ti ti y (t,T) ( t 1 T 1 , ) si ( t 2 T 2 , ) si ... ( t n T n , ) si q1 q 2 q n Page 24 Step 3: Explore alternative price schemes based on price discrimination theory (cont 2) • The unit cost (Cj) will depend on the quantity demanded by each farmer (y), the monthly rental (R), the rate (t) and the number of free Kwh (L), and is defined for household j as: cj Ri ti [ y*j Li ] y*j • When consumer plans are introduced, the j-th farmer will choose plan k that minimizes its expenditure given yj*: Rk tk [ y*j Lk ] Rm tm[ y*j Lm ]; m • However, consumption plans may change the amount demanded at the equilibrium point and then farmer will re-adjust Page 25 Simulation of three progressive pricing schemes • The first price scheme is a simple two part payment schedule that established an initial quantity (q1) priced at p1 (q1 is what smallholders consume so they will keep same level of subsidy); while demand exceeding q1 units is priced with marginal cost, i.e. p2. • This second mechanism considers a fixed rate (F), under which the household receives q1 units of electricity. Consumption exceeding q1 is charged with a marginal cost v1 for households demanding less than q2 units, and households with consumption exceeding q2 will pay v2 for additional units. • The third consumption plan has a variable first part and two marginal rates. This scenario will eliminate the burden of the subsidy to the government given small-holders will also pay the first part of the tariff based on their consumption. Page 26 Simulation 1: Results of a simple two part tariff Andhra Pradesh Information on land size Potential expenditure % of sample Average Ha (total) Average Ha Motor (HP) Average HP kwh / Ha 0.36 ]0-3] 1.5 500.8 71.33 0.75 0.38 ]0-3] 1.5 1725.6 Actual exp Charge Rs/HP/Year Actual exp Land size (Ha) ] 0 - 1.8 ] ] 0 - 1.8 ] Crop Wheat Paddy ] 1.8 - 3.64 ] ] 1.8 - 3.64 ] Wheat Paddy 16.63 2.45 1.45 1.00 ]3-5] ]3-5] 4.0 4.0 ] 3.64 + [ ] 3.64 + [ Wheat Paddy 12.05 6.24 3.30 2.94 ] 5 - 7.5 ] ] 5 - 7.5 ] 6.3 6.3 kw First part price Exp kw 840.47 0.40 337.50 0.00 1.18 0.00 337.50 total kw 225 338 840.47 438.8 1511.6 375 1500 2144.60 383 1319 475 2969 5138.60 Two-part tariff Second part price Crop Wheat Paddy ] 1.8 - 3.64 ] ] 1.8 - 3.64 ] Wheat Paddy 840.47 0.40 337.50 1304.13 1.18 1538.88 1876.38 ] 3.64 + [ ] 3.64 + [ Wheat Paddy 840.47 0.40 337.50 4298.13 1.18 5071.80 5409.30 Simulated q % change in q Simulation % change Elasticity price Exp Total expenditure Land size (Ha) ] 0 - 1.8 ] ] 0 - 1.8 ] Weighted Avg price Price t=0 0.40 0.40 0.0% -0.69 840.47 0.00 Land size (Ha) ] 0 - 1.8 ] ] 0 - 1.8 ] Crop Wheat Paddy ] 1.8 - 3.64 ] ] 1.8 - 3.64 ] Wheat Paddy 0.87 0.70 25.1% -0.55 1847.20 -0.14 ] 3.64 + [ ] 3.64 + [ Wheat Paddy 1.05 0.58 82.2% -0.50 3045.45 -0.41 Page 27 Simulation 1: Results of a simple two part tariff Punjab Information on land size Potential expenditure % of sample Average Ha (total) Average Ha Motor (HP) Average HP kwh / Ha 0.69 ]0-3] 1.5 500.8 30.73 0.94 0.24 ]0-3] 1.5 1725.6 Actual exp Charge Rs/HP/Year Actual exp Land size (Ha) ] 0 - 1.9 ] ] 0 - 1.9 ] Crop Wheat Paddy ] 1.9 - 3.98 ] ] 1.9 - 3.98 ] Wheat Paddy 26.55 2.76 1.81 0.95 ]3-5] ]3-5] 4.0 4.0 ] 3.98 + [ ] 3.98 + [ Wheat Paddy 42.73 8.21 5.16 3.05 ] 5 - 7.5 ] ] 5 - 7.5 ] 6.3 6.3 kw First part price Exp kw 767.38 1.06 810.00 0.00 1.18 0.00 810.00 total kw 540 810 767.38 438.8 1511.6 540 2160 2224.16 383 1319 720 4500 6002.27 Two-part tariff Second part price Crop Wheat Paddy ] 1.9 - 3.98 ] ] 1.9 - 3.98 ] Wheat Paddy 767.38 1.06 810.00 1456.77 1.18 1718.99 2528.99 ] 3.98 + [ ] 3.98 + [ Wheat Paddy 767.38 1.06 810.00 5234.89 1.18 6177.17 6987.17 Simulated q % change in q Simulation % change Elasticity price Exp Total expenditure Land size (Ha) ] 0 - 1.9 ] ] 0 - 1.9 ] Weighted Avg price Price t=0 1.06 1.06 0.0% -0.91 767.38 0.00 Land size (Ha) ] 0 - 1.9 ] ] 0 - 1.9 ] Crop Wheat Paddy ] 1.9 - 3.98 ] ] 1.9 - 3.98 ] Wheat Paddy 1.14 0.97 17.1% -0.91 1877.69 -0.16 ] 3.98 + [ ] 3.98 + [ Wheat Paddy 1.16 0.75 55.3% -0.86 3154.04 -0.47 Page 28 Simulation 1:Concentration curves for electricity consumption (Kw), actual and two-part tariff simulation Punjab 1 1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 cum dist of electricity consumtion (kw) cum dist of electricity consumtion (kw) Andhra Pradesh 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Simulation 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 simulation 0.2 actual 0.1 Actual 0.1 0.7 0 0 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 cumulative distribution of irrigated Ha 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 cumulative distribution of irrigated Ha Page 29 1 Simulation 2: Impact of an optimal consumption plan with a fix rate and two marginal rates This second mechanism considers: • A fixed rate (F), under which the household receives q1 units of electricity. • Consumption exceeding q1 is charged with a marginal cost v1 for households demanding less than q2 units. • Households with consumption exceeding q2 pay v2 for additional units. In this sense, household’s expenditure can be represented by EXPi F if qi q1 F v1 (qi q1 ) if q1 qi q 2 F v1 (q 2 q1 ) v 2 (qi q1 q 2 ) if qi q 2 Page 30 Profits of electricity industry under different combinations of v1 and v2 (v1<v2) Andhra Pradesh Punjab Page 31 Summary of Simulation 2, selected values of v1 and v2 Andhra Pradesh 1 2 3 4 5 6 1.18 337.5 840.47 66.0% 1.18 337.5 840.47 66.0% 1.18 337.5 840.47 66.0% 1.18 337.5 840.47 66.0% 1.18 337.5 840.47 66.0% 1.18 337.5 840.47 66.0% 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.75 0.60 1.55 1.10 2.20 2.00 3.45 2.70 5.00 2.19 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.33 0.27 1.04 0.60 1.04 1.32 1.04 2.56 1.04 4.65 1.04 -23.49 1.04 -10.43 Assumptions Marginal Cost Fixed rate (F) Units included in fixed rate (q1) Subsidy fixed rate (% MgC) Parameters v1 v2 Impact Simul Subs / Actual Subs Subs smallholders / largeholders Actual Simul Page 32 Summary of Simulation 2, selected values of v1 and v2 Punjab 1 2 3 4 5 6 1.89 810 767.38 44.2% 1.89 810 767.38 44.2% 1.89 810 767.38 44.2% 1.89 810 767.38 44.2% 1.89 810 767.38 44.2% 1.89 810 767.38 44.2% 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.80 0.35 1.05 0.60 1.60 0.90 2.10 4.90 5.00 2.64 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.33 0.02 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.05 0.10 0.05 0.17 0.05 0.28 0.05 -16.79 Assumptions Marginal Cost Fixed rate (F) Units included in fixed rate (q1) Subsidy fixed rate (% MgC) Parameters v1 v2 Impact Simul Subs / Actual Subs Subs smallholders / largeholders Actual Simul Page 33 Summary of Simulation 2, Distribution of electricity subsidy, selected values of v1 and v2 (% of total subsidy): Andhra Pradesh Page 34 Summary of Simulation 2, Distribution of electricity subsidy, selected values of v1 and v2 (% of total subsidy): Punjab Page 35 Summary of Simulation 3: Impacts of an optimal consumption plan with a variable first part and two marginal rates – Andhra Pradesh sim/actual 2 1.5-2 loss 1-1.5 1.5 1.4-1.6 sim/actual 1.6 loss 1.2-1.4 1.4 1-1.2 0.5-1 1.2 0-0.5 1 1 0.8-1 0.6-0.8 0.8 0.4-0.6 0.6 0.2 v2 2.7 0-0.2 v2 0 Subs first segment=49% 1.4-1.6 1.2-1.4 1-1.2 0.6-0.8 0.6-0.8 0.8 0.4-0.6 0.4-0.6 0.6 0.2-0.4 0.2-0.4 0.4 4.8 0.4 0.2 2.4 0-0.2 4.8 0.2 v2 2.4 0 0 v1 4.5 2.7 1.8 3.6 75% increase in F 0.9 0 0 0-0.2 0 100% increase in F Subs first segment=40% v1 4.5 0.6 3.6 0.8 0.8-1 1 0.8-1 1 1-1.2 1.2 2.7 1.2 loss 0.9 1.4 1.2-1.4 sim/actual 1.4 1.8 sim/actual 1.6 v2 0 Subs first segment=32% 1.2-1.4 sim/actual 1.4 1-1.2 1.2 0.8-1 1-1.2 sim/actual 1.2 loss 0.8-1 1 0.6-0.8 1 0.6-0.8 0.8 0.4-0.6 0.8 0.4-0.6 0.6 0.2-0.4 0.6 0.2-0.4 0.4 0.4 0-0.2 0.2 0.2 Subs first segment=23% 0 v2 2.4 Subs first segment=15% v1 4.5 150% increase in F 1.8 0 3.6 -0.2 0 4.5 3.6 v1 2.7 0.9 1.8 0 125% increase in F -0.2-0 4.8 2.7 2.5 0 0-0.2 y 0.9 loss v1 4.5 50% increase in F 3.6 0 0 Subs first segment=57% loss 2.4 0 4.5 2.7 v1 3.6 25% increase in F 1.8 0.9 0 0 4.8 0.9 2.4 0.2-0.4 0.4 4.8 1.8 0.5 v2 0 Page 36 Summary of Simulation 3: Impacts of an optimal consumption plan with a variable first part and two marginal rates – Punjab 2-2.5 sim/actual 2.5 1.5-2 loss 2 1.5 loss 2 1-1.5 0.5-1 1.5 0.5-1 0-0.5 0-0.5 1 -0.5-0 0.5 4.8 v1 2-2.5 1.5-2 2 1-1.5 1.5 0.5-1 sim/actual 1 0-0.5 -0.5-0 0.5 0 4.8 v2 v1 4.5 3.6 100% increase in F 2.7 0 1.8 -0.5 0 4.5 3.6 2.7 1.8 v1 4.8 2.4 0.9 -0.5 0.5-1 1 0.5 2.4 1-1.5 1.5 -0.5-0 0 1.5-2 2 loss 0-0.5 0.9 v2 0 Subs first segment=16% sim/actual 2.5 0 3.6 0 50% increase in F 2.7 -0.5 v2 0 Subs first segment=30% 75% increase in F 2.4 4.5 v1 4.5 3.6 2.7 0.9 25% increase in F 1.8 0 0 4.8 0 1.8 2.4 0.9 0.5 v2 0 Subs first segment= -11% Subs first segment=2% sim/actual 1.5-2 1-1.5 1 loss 2-2.5 sim/actual 2.5 1.5-2 2 1-1.5 loss 0.5-1 1.5 sim/actual 1.5-2 2 1-1.5 loss 0.5-1 1.5 0-0.5 0-0.5 1 1 -0.5-0 0.5 0.5 4.8 2.4 Subs first segment= -39% v1 4.5 150% increase in F 3.6 0 2.7 -0.5 0 4.5 3.6 1.8 v1 2.7 0.9 0 Subs first segment= -25% v2 4.8 1.8 2.4 -0.5 0 0.9 0 125% increase in F -0.5-0 v2 0 Page 37 Conclusions • The use of electricity in agriculture for irrigation following the green revolution has significantly contributed to agricultural productivity growth in India. • However, there is an inbuilt inefficiency in the current pricing mechanism and measuring system of power for irrigation in India and specifically in Andhra Pradesh and Punjab. • One of the mechanisms used to cover the subsidy for agricultural (and domestic) power consumption was cross-subsidy from industrial and commercial consumers. In fact, the tariff charged to industrial and commercial consumers in India has been one of the highest in the world. • Both of this problems have generated what we called along this report a vicious cycle which results in poor supply outcome in form of low quality of power, unreliable supply, unavailable to many potential users and high transmission and distribution (T&D) losses. • In addition, and most seriously, it had exacerbated the fall of the ground water level. • A price discrimination strategy is proposed based on the size of the farmers plot and on the implementation of a two part tariff mechanism. • In summary, in all these three price schemes, the major result is that the subsidy will be more progressive and resources will be used more efficiently. If low-demand consumers or high-demand consumers want to consume more electricity, they will need to pay a charge over the marginal costs for each unit above their fixed charge. Page 38 Future research • Implement proposed tariff schemes implemented based on the simulated electricity consumption by the farmers according to their plot size and what they produce • Open the option for self selecting into pre-paid meters if they belief price schemes are not capturing real consumption and use it as a way to manage the price discrimination mechanism • Measure the difference between two schemes in terms of: – progressiveness of the distribution of the subsidy with respect to the first two part tariff mechanism; – reduction or elimination of the burden of the subsidy to the government by cross subsidizing small holders with the revenues from large holders; – changes in the quality of the service Page 39