UNO Study - 2014 - Pierce County Economic Development

SELECTED DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC
INFORMATION FOR PIERCE COUNTY
JERRY DEICHERT
CENTER FOR PUBLIC AFFAIRS RESEARCH, UNO
SEPTEMBER 2014
Population and Population Change: 1970 to 2013
• Population has declined steadily since 1970
– Highest population in 1975 at 8,535
– Lowest population in 2013 at 7,150
• There were annual increases in population between
1993 and 1998
• Since 1999, there have been only 2 years with
modest population increases
300
8,500
200
8,000
100
7,500
0
7,000
-100
6,500
-200
6,000
-300
Population Change
Source: Annual Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau
Population
Persons
9,000
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Persons
Population and Population Change for Pierce County, 1970 to 2013
Natural Change = Births - Deaths
• Births
• Peaked in 1952 with 253 births
• Declined until 1975, recorded a high point in 1982—171
births
• Declining steadily with a slight rebound in 2012 and 2013
• Deaths
• Peaked in 1974 (111 deaths), with declines since 2004
• Natural Change
• With the exception of a few years in the mid-1990s births
have exceeded deaths
Births, Deaths, & Natural Change (Births-Deaths) for Pierce County, 1946 - 2012
300
250
200
Persons
150
100
50
0
Births
Deaths
Source: Vital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services
Natural change
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
1958
1956
1954
1952
1950
1948
1946
-50
Net Migration
• For most years there has been net
outmigration
• From 1993 to 1998 there was a period of net
inmigration
• Since 1993, there was only one year of net
inmigration (2005)
Natural Change and Net Migration for Pierce County, 1970 to 2013
200
150
100
Persons
50
0
-50
-100
-150
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-200
Net migration
Natural change
Source: Vital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services; Annual Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau
School Aged Children
The estimates of the number of children aged 5 to 17 years are
based solely on the accumulation of the number of births over a
thirteen-year period. For example, the number of 5 to 17 year
olds in 1963 would consist of the accumulation of the number of
births from 1946 to 1958. Obviously, this does not account for
mortality, nor does it adjust for the number of children who
moved into or out of an area.
• The largest estimated number of school aged children was in
1964 (2,890)
• 1993 was another high point (1,831)
• Since 1993, the estimated number of children has been
declining steadily with a projected number of 1,117 in 2018
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Children
Estimated Number of Children Aged 5 to 17 Years Based on Births for Pierce
County, 1963 to 2018
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Source: Vital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services
Age Distribution
The next chart looks at the age distribution by
dividing each 5-year age group for males and
females by the county’s total population. For
example, 3.3 percent of Pierce County’s
population was males under the age of 5 years.
• The largest age groups were for the Baby
Boom generation (45 to 64 years old).
• The smallest age group was for the Millennial
generation (20 to 34 years old).
2010 Pierce County Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group:
Age Group
85+ years
80 to 84 years
75 to 79 years
70 to 74 years
65 to 69 years
60 to 64 years
Female
Male
55 to 59 years
50 to 54 years
45 to 49 years
40 to 44 years
35 to 39 years
30 to 34 years
25 to 29 years
20 to 24 years
15 to 19 years
10 to 14 years
5 to 9 years
Under 5 years
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1.0
Percent of Total Population
2010 Census of Population, U.S. Census Bureau
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Population and Jobs
• Since 1969 jobs have grown while population
has declined
• Jobs
1969
2012
• Population 1969
2012
3,246
3,603
8,538
7,166
11.0% increase
16.1% decrease
Population and Full and Part-time Jobs for Pierce County: 1969 to 2012
9,000
8,000
7,000
Persons or Jobs
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
Jobs
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System
Population
Full and Part-time Jobs per 100 Persons
The number of full and part-time jobs per 100
persons in Pierce County has grown steadily
since 1969 but lags the Nebraska value.
Full and Part-time Jobs per 100 Persons for Nebraska and Pierce County:
1969 to 2012
75.0
70.0
65.0
Jobs/100 Persons
60.0
55.0
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
30.0
Pierce County
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System
Nebraska
Per Capita Personal Income
• Averaged a little over 80% of US average since
1969 (US=100%)
• Generally less than Nebraska as a whole and
nonmetropolitan Nebraska
• Higher than the national average in 2011 and
2012
Per Capita Personal Income for Pierce County, Non-metropolitan Nebraska, and
the State as a Percentage of the U.S.: 1969-2012
110.0
100.0
Percent of the U.S.
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
Pierce County
Nebraska
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System
Non-metropolitan Nebraska
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
50.0