SELECTED DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC INFORMATION FOR PIERCE COUNTY JERRY DEICHERT CENTER FOR PUBLIC AFFAIRS RESEARCH, UNO SEPTEMBER 2014 Population and Population Change: 1970 to 2013 • Population has declined steadily since 1970 – Highest population in 1975 at 8,535 – Lowest population in 2013 at 7,150 • There were annual increases in population between 1993 and 1998 • Since 1999, there have been only 2 years with modest population increases 300 8,500 200 8,000 100 7,500 0 7,000 -100 6,500 -200 6,000 -300 Population Change Source: Annual Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau Population Persons 9,000 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Persons Population and Population Change for Pierce County, 1970 to 2013 Natural Change = Births - Deaths • Births • Peaked in 1952 with 253 births • Declined until 1975, recorded a high point in 1982—171 births • Declining steadily with a slight rebound in 2012 and 2013 • Deaths • Peaked in 1974 (111 deaths), with declines since 2004 • Natural Change • With the exception of a few years in the mid-1990s births have exceeded deaths Births, Deaths, & Natural Change (Births-Deaths) for Pierce County, 1946 - 2012 300 250 200 Persons 150 100 50 0 Births Deaths Source: Vital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services Natural change 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 1958 1956 1954 1952 1950 1948 1946 -50 Net Migration • For most years there has been net outmigration • From 1993 to 1998 there was a period of net inmigration • Since 1993, there was only one year of net inmigration (2005) Natural Change and Net Migration for Pierce County, 1970 to 2013 200 150 100 Persons 50 0 -50 -100 -150 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -200 Net migration Natural change Source: Vital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services; Annual Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau School Aged Children The estimates of the number of children aged 5 to 17 years are based solely on the accumulation of the number of births over a thirteen-year period. For example, the number of 5 to 17 year olds in 1963 would consist of the accumulation of the number of births from 1946 to 1958. Obviously, this does not account for mortality, nor does it adjust for the number of children who moved into or out of an area. • The largest estimated number of school aged children was in 1964 (2,890) • 1993 was another high point (1,831) • Since 1993, the estimated number of children has been declining steadily with a projected number of 1,117 in 2018 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Children Estimated Number of Children Aged 5 to 17 Years Based on Births for Pierce County, 1963 to 2018 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Source: Vital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services Age Distribution The next chart looks at the age distribution by dividing each 5-year age group for males and females by the county’s total population. For example, 3.3 percent of Pierce County’s population was males under the age of 5 years. • The largest age groups were for the Baby Boom generation (45 to 64 years old). • The smallest age group was for the Millennial generation (20 to 34 years old). 2010 Pierce County Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group: Age Group 85+ years 80 to 84 years 75 to 79 years 70 to 74 years 65 to 69 years 60 to 64 years Female Male 55 to 59 years 50 to 54 years 45 to 49 years 40 to 44 years 35 to 39 years 30 to 34 years 25 to 29 years 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years 5 to 9 years Under 5 years 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 Percent of Total Population 2010 Census of Population, U.S. Census Bureau 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Population and Jobs • Since 1969 jobs have grown while population has declined • Jobs 1969 2012 • Population 1969 2012 3,246 3,603 8,538 7,166 11.0% increase 16.1% decrease Population and Full and Part-time Jobs for Pierce County: 1969 to 2012 9,000 8,000 7,000 Persons or Jobs 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0 Jobs Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System Population Full and Part-time Jobs per 100 Persons The number of full and part-time jobs per 100 persons in Pierce County has grown steadily since 1969 but lags the Nebraska value. Full and Part-time Jobs per 100 Persons for Nebraska and Pierce County: 1969 to 2012 75.0 70.0 65.0 Jobs/100 Persons 60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 30.0 Pierce County Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System Nebraska Per Capita Personal Income • Averaged a little over 80% of US average since 1969 (US=100%) • Generally less than Nebraska as a whole and nonmetropolitan Nebraska • Higher than the national average in 2011 and 2012 Per Capita Personal Income for Pierce County, Non-metropolitan Nebraska, and the State as a Percentage of the U.S.: 1969-2012 110.0 100.0 Percent of the U.S. 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 Pierce County Nebraska Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System Non-metropolitan Nebraska 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 1974 1973 1972 1971 1970 1969 50.0