ECO 317 Intermediate Macroeconomics Instructor • • • • • Jing Li (sounds like Lee) 7-year experience of teaching at US colleges Second year at MU Married with two kids Teaching eco 311 as well Expectation • • • • • Hard-working is expected Cramming for exam does not work Memorizing does not work Understanding is the key If you need A or B, earn it! Required Textbook Webpage • http://www.fsb.muohio.edu/lij14/ • I use Nihhka only when I need to send group email and post grade • Google “jing li miami university” Grades • • • • • • Six homeworks, 10 points Term paper, 10 points Three midterm exams, 60 points Final exam, 20 points (bonus) Attendance, worth 3 points None of the exam is accumulative Hot Issues • • • • National Debt Income gap: 1% vs. 99% Globalization 2007-2009 Recession Review • Labor (input) L is used to produce output Y • Production is captured by production function 𝐹( ) 𝑌 = 𝐹(𝐿) • Marginal product of labor (MPL) is the extra output that can be produced by using one more unit of labor 𝜕𝑌 𝑀𝑃𝐿 = ≈ 𝐹 𝐿 + 1, 𝐾 − 𝐹(𝐿, 𝐾) 𝜕𝐿 • Q: What is the sign of MPL? • Q: What happens to MPL as L rises? Two Properties of MPL • 𝑀𝑃𝐿>0, so total product rises when input rises • 𝑑𝑀𝑃𝐿 <0 𝑑𝐿 (decreasing or diminishing marginal product). The extra labor becomes less and less productive. • Graphically, the production function (total product curve) is upward sloping, and becomes flatter and flatter. • Q: how does the marginal product curve looks like? Profit Maximizing • Profit = revenue – cost = 𝑃𝑌 − 𝑊𝐿 = 𝑃𝐹 𝐿 − − 𝑊𝐿. We assume competitive market. • Profit rises when marginal revenue is greater than marginal cost, and decreases otherwise • Profit is maximized when marginal revenue = marginal cost • Mathematically, the first order condition is 𝑃 ∗ 𝑀𝑃𝐿 = 𝑊 Summary • Output does not grow if input and technology remain constant • Wage is determined by the marginal product. Discuss • What is the long run prospect of Japanese economy, where both population and technology stagnate? • Why does a doctor earn much more than a plumber? Cobb-Douglas Production Function • • • • 𝑌 = 𝐹 𝐾, 𝐿 = 𝐴𝐾 𝛼 𝐿1−𝛼 , (0 < 𝛼 < 1) Constant return to scale Constant factor share in income Marginal product is proportional to average product Calculus • 𝑥 𝑎 ′ = 𝑎𝑥 𝑎−1 • Multivariate function 𝑦 = 𝑓(𝑥, 𝑧) • Partial derivatives 𝜕𝑦 𝜕𝑦 , 𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑧 Example: 𝑦 = 𝑥 𝑎 𝑧 𝑏 , 𝜕𝑦 = 𝑎𝑥 𝑎−1 𝑧 𝑏 𝜕𝑥 𝜕𝑦 = 𝑏𝑧 𝑏−1 𝑥 𝑎 𝜕𝑧 Why Cobb-Douglas Function? • It can explain the following two facts • The shares of capital and labor incomes are constant • Real wage grows at the same rate as average product The Demand Side • The supply side is captured by production function • We need to specify the demand side in order to find equilibrium • Demand = consumption + government expenditure + investment Aggregate Demand • Consumption: 𝐶 = 𝐶 𝑌 − 𝑇 , which is fixed 𝑑𝐼 , 𝑑𝑟 • Investment: 𝐼 = 𝐼 𝑟 < 0, which varies as the real interest rate 𝑟 changes • Government expenditure: 𝐺 = 𝐺, which is fixed Equilibrium • Equilibrium: supply = demand • Mathematically 𝑌 =𝐶 𝑌−𝑇 +𝐼 𝑟 +𝐺 • We can solve this equation for 𝑟, and obtain the equilibrium real interest rate • In short, real interest rate adjusts to equilibrate the market Another Perspective • Alternatively, we can study the equilibrium for loanable funds market • At equilibrium, the supply and demand of funds are equal: 𝑌−𝐶 𝑌−𝑇 −𝐺 =𝐼 𝑟 Note the supply of fund is fixed Application 1. Why was interest rate high in early 1980? 2. Why was interest rate high in early 1990? Crowding Out • Chapter 3 implies that expanding government expenditure will completely crowd out investment • Fiscal policy is ineffective • How about monetary policy? MVPY Monetarism • In long run, price is mainly affected by money supply • Inflation rate equals growth rate of money supply if assuming fixed income and constant velocity • What if those two assumptions fails? Hyper-Inflation (to get Seigniorage) Quantitative Easing (as a Policy Tool) • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTUY16Ck S-k • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_eas ing Classical Dichotomy • According to the long run classical theory, money is neutral (monetary neutrality): the money supply does not affect real variables • The theoretical separation of real and nominal variables is called classical dichotomy • Real variables are studied in Chapter 3 • Price is determined in Chapter 4 • They jointly determine nominal variables Fisher Equation Application of Classical Dichotomy 𝑖=𝑟+ 𝜋 So nominal interest rate 𝑖 is the sum of real interest rate 𝑟 and inflation rate 𝜋. 𝑟 is determined in chapter 3, (Figure 3-8) 𝜋 is determined in chapter 4, (MV=PY) Proof • You have two options: saving a good and earns real interest; or saving money and earn nominal interest. • There is no arbitrage at equilibrium: 1+𝑖 1+𝑟 = 1+𝜋 Fisher equation follows assuming 𝑟𝜋 = 0 How to Forecast Nominal Interest Rate in Long Run? • First determine the real interest rate 𝑆 = 𝐼 𝑟 • Then determine the inflation rate 𝜋 = 𝑀% + 𝑉% − 𝑌% • Finally use Fisher Equation: 𝑖 = 𝑟 + 𝜋 • Nominal interest rate matters because it is a key variable in Financial and Housing markets A Short Run Theory • Consider the equilibrium in money market • Money supply = 𝑀 , 𝑃 a vertical line • Money (liquidity) demand = 𝐿(𝑖, 𝑌), a downward sloping line • At equilibrium 𝑀 = 𝐿(𝑖, 𝑌) 𝑃 Discuss Dear Professor Li, I am in your 317 class and had a question regarding interest rates. Prior to class today I was reading an article that stated that a main reason why our economy has not felt the same effects of having a 70% debt to GDP ratio is that we have lower interest rates compared to European countries who have similar debt-GDP ratios(but these countries have higher interest rates). If our economies are similar in terms of this ratio, how come we have such a lower interest rate in comparison to a country such as Spain? Also, thanks for an enjoyable class today. Stephen H. Answer • US real interest rate is low because high (foreign) supply of loanable fund. Spain is opposite • US nominal interest rate is low because of quantitative easing Review • Nominal vs Real Y: Real GDP PY: Nominal GDP W/P: Real Wage W: Nominal Wage r: Real Interest Rate i: Nominal Interest Rate Classical Dichotomy • Money does not affect real variables • Real variables are determined in Chapter 3 • Price is determined in Chapter 4 Review • Long Run vs Short Run Long Run: 𝑴𝑽 = 𝑷𝒀 Short Run: 𝑀 𝑃 = 𝐿(𝑖, 𝑌)