TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference
Columbus, OH May 2013
Estimating Bus and Rail
Travel Times
For Transit Corridor Studies
Presented by:
James Baker, Vice President
Connetics Transportation Group
1
“Baking” Transit Ridership Forecasts
Ingredients
Alignment
Station Locations
Demographics
Service Plans
Auto Travel Times
Transit Travel Times
2
Travel Time Estimates
in Relation to Project Development
Idea
Concept
Feasibility
Average Speed
Assumptions
Alternatives
Analysis
Preliminary
Engineering
Spreadsheet
Applications
Final
Design
Construction
Opening
Day!
Rail Simulation
Programs
Travel Time Detail Increases with Project Development
3
Travel Time Estimates
in Relation to Project Development
Idea
Concept
Feasibility
Average Speed
Assumptions
Alternatives
Analysis
Preliminary
Engineering
Spreadsheet
Applications
Final
Design
Construction
Opening
Day!
Rail Simulation
Programs
Travel Time Detail Increases with Project Development
4
Travel Time Estimates Used for…
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Ridership Forecasts
Operating Schedules
Vehicle Requirements
Operating & Maintenance Cost Estimates
Speed Profiles
Single Track Analysis
Power/Substation Requirements
Noise Impact Analysis
5
Travel Time Components
•
•
•
•
Vehicle Speeds
Alignment
Station Dwells
Traffic Congestion and Signal Delays
Objective:
Build a Travel Time Estimate With Reasonable
Planning Level Assumptions for Each Component
6
Vehicle Speeds
Typical Maximum Vehicle Speeds &
Range of Acceleration and Deceleration Rates
Mode
Typical Max. Speed
Range of Rates
Bus
65-70 mph
1.5 to 2.0 mphps
Streetcar
40-45 mph
2.0 to 2.5 mphps
Light Rail
55-65 mph
2.5 to 3.0 mphps
Heavy Rail
65-75 mph
2.5 to 3.0 mphps
Commuter Rail
70-80 mph
1.0 to 1.5 mphps
Diesel Multiple Unit
70-80 mph
1.5 to 2.5 mphps
7
Vehicle Speeds
Acceleration Rates from 0 to X mph
Acceleration Time:
(Final Velocity/100)/acceleration rate/60
Deceleration Time:
(Initiial Velocity/deceleration rate/60
Acceleration Rate (mphps)
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
0-5
0-10
0-15
0-20
0-25
0-30
0-35
0-40
0-45
0-50
0-55
Acceleration (0 to X mph)
3.0 mphps
2.0 mphps
1.5 mphps
8
Vehicle Speeds
Distance Required for
0 to 25 mph Acceleration
Time Required for
0 to 25 mph Acceleration
600
30
25 sec
500
Seconds
20
16.7 sec
15
12.5 sec
10 sec
10
8.3 sec
477
400
318
300
238
191
200
159
100
5
0
Distance (Feet)
25
1.0
1.5
2.0
mphps
2.5
3.0
0
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
mphps
9
Alignment
Plan and Profile Drawings Identify:
• Station/Stop Locations
• Start and End of Horizontal Curves
• Maximum Speeds Through Curves
• Vertical Grades
10
Station Dwell Times
Factors that Impact Station Dwell Times
• Passenger Boarding & Alighting Volumes
• Payment Method
• Passenger Volume Inside Vehicle
• Number of Doors on Vehicle
• Level vs. Step Boarding & Alighting
• ADA Boardings/Alightings
• Bicycle Loadings
11
Station Dwell Times:
Fare Collection Service Times
TCRP Report 90 Passenger Boarding and Alighting Rates
(Seconds per Passenger)
Situation
Observed Range
Suggested Default
BOARDING
(sec. per pass.)
2.25-2.75
2.5
Single ticket or token
3.4-3.6
3.5
Smart card
3.0-3.7
3.5
Exact change
3.6-4.3
4.0
4.2
4.2
ALIGHTING
(sec. per pass.)
Front door
3.3
3.3
Rear door
2.1
2.1
Prepayment
Swipe or dip card
Note: Rates can vary depending on # of standees and type of bus (low floor)
12
Station Dwell Times:
Suggested Rates
Suggested Dwell Times
• BRT: 10-30 seconds
• HRT, LRT and Streetcar: 15-30 seconds
• Commuter Rail and DMU: 30-60 seconds
13
Traffic Congestion & Signal Delays
Roadway Congestion Impacts
• Maximum Speed Adjustments Based on Road
LOS
Intersection Delay Impacts
•
•
•
•
Cycle Length
Green time/cycle time (g/c) ratio
Volume/capacity (v/c) ratio
Bus Priority Treatments (TSP, queue jumpers)
14
Traffic Congestion & Signal Delays
Intersection Delay Curves in TCRP Report 118
• 60, 90 and 120 second cycle length curves
• Curves for g/c ratios of 0.40, 0.50 and 0.60
Avg. Delay per Intersection:
120-Second Cycle Lengths
0:01:20
0:01:10
Delay, seconds per vehicle
TCRP Report 118
Delay curves for
120 second
traffic signal
cycles
0:01:00
0:00:50
0:00:40
0:00:30
0:00:20
0:00:10
0:00:00
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
Volume-to-Capacity Ratio
g/c=0.40
g/c=0.50
g/c=0.60
15
Traffic Congestion & Signal Delays
Transit Signal Priority
• Improves g/c ratio (e.g., from 0.40 to 0.50 g/c)
Queue Jumper Lanes
• Reduces v/c ratio (e.g., from 0.70 to 0.40)
Reductions Calculated with
TCRP Report 118 Traffic Signal
Delay Curves
16
Example Calculation of
Traffic Signal Delay
Intersection
Characteristic
No
Treatment
With
TSP
With Queue
Jumper
120 seconds
120 seconds
120 seconds
g/c Ratio
0.40
0.50
0.40
v/c Ratio
0.70
0.70
0.40
36 seconds
28 seconds
28 seconds
Signal Cycle Length
Estimated Delay
Existing Travel Time Observations Should Be Used to Validate Assumptions
17
Example Application #1
Oakland Park Blvd. Alternatives Analysis
• Major East/West Arterial Road in
Broward County, FL
• Potential Modes are BRT and Streetcar
• Alignment Options include Mixed Traffic,
Business Access and Transit (BAT) Lane,
and Exclusive Lane
18
Example Application #1
Oakland Park Blvd. Alternatives Analysis
Modes/Vehicles Being Considered
• Bus Rapid Transit (2.0 mphps accel/decel rates)
• Streetcar (2.5 mphps accel/decel rates)
Alignment
Acceleration Time
• 15.4 miles
• 16 Stops
Stop Dwell Times
• 15-20 seconds
60.0
Time (Seconds)
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
0-5
0-10
0-15
0-20
0-25
0-30
0-35
0-40
0-45
0-50
Acceleration (0 to X mph)
Bus
Streetcar
19
Example Application #1
Oakland Park Blvd. Alternatives Analysis
Signalized Intersection Delays
Avg. Delay per Intersection:
90-Second Cycle Lengths
Inter.
Class.
Class 1
Delay, seconds per vehicle
0:01:10
0:01:00
0:00:50
0:00:40
0:00:30
0:00:20
0:00:10
0:00:00
Class 2
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
Volume-to-Capacity Ratio
g/c=0.40
g/c=0.50
g/c=0.60
Avg. Delay per Intersection:
120-Second Cycle Lengths
Class 3
0:01:20
Delay, seconds per vehicle
0:01:10
0:01:00
0:00:50
0:00:40
LOS
A
B
C
D
E
F
A
B
C
D
E
F
A
B
C
D
E
F
No TSP
0:00:29
0:00:31
0:00:34
0:00:38
0:00:47
0:01:02
0:00:16
0:00:18
0:00:21
0:00:24
0:00:33
0:00:46
0:00:11
0:00:13
0:00:16
0:00:19
0:00:26
0:00:39
w/ TSP
0:00:21
0:00:23
0:00:26
0:00:30
0:00:39
0:00:53
0:00:11
0:00:13
0:00:16
0:00:19
0:00:26
0:00:39
0:00:08
0:00:09
0:00:11
0:00:14
0:00:21
0:00:34
w/ QJ
0:00:27
0:00:27
0:00:27
0:00:29
0:00:31
0:00:34
0:00:15
0:00:15
0:00:15
0:00:16
0:00:18
0:00:21
0:00:11
0:00:11
0:00:11
0:00:11
0:00:13
0:00:16
w/ TSP&QJ
0:00:20
0:00:20
0:00:20
0:00:21
0:00:23
0:00:26
0:00:11
0:00:11
0:00:11
0:00:11
0:00:13
0:00:16
0:00:07
0:00:07
0:00:07
0:00:08
0:00:09
0:00:11
0:00:30
0:00:20
0:00:10
0:00:00
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
Volume-to-Capacity Ratio
g/c=0.40
g/c=0.50
g/c=0.60
0.80
0.90
1.00
Roadway Congestion
Factors to Posted
Speed Limits
LOS
Speed Red.
A
B
C
D
E
F
0.95
0.85
0.75
0.65
0.55
0.45
20
Example Application #1
Oakland Park Blvd. Alternatives Analysis
Example Portion of Travel Time Worksheet
Sta.
No.
1
Intersection/Station
Sawgrass Mills
Station
Type
PrePay?
Inter.
Class.
TSP?
Queue
Jumper?
n/a
Yes
n/a
n/a
No
Green Toad Rd/NW 136th Ave.
Stop
No
No
Red Snapper Road/136th Ave.
3
No
No
Orange Grove Road/136th Ave.
3
Pat Salerno Dr./Azure Al/136th Ave.
3
N. Flamingo Road/136th Ave. (LT)
2
SR 816/Flamingo Road.
1
N.W. 120th Way/OPB
2
No
No
No
N. Nob Hill Rd./OPB
3
M
Yes
Pine Island Road/OPB
University Dr./OPB
Inverrary Blvd. W./OPB
2
M
Yes
1
3
H
Yes
M
Yes
Yes
No
No
2
1
No
No
No
No
No
40
0.26
45
A
45
0.27
45
A
45
0.34
45
D
30
0.26
45
F
20
0.54
45
D
30
0.23
45
D
30
0.45
45
D
30
0.36
0.58
45
E
25
0.57
45
E
25
0.49
45
E
25
0.35
45
E
25
0.18
45
F
20
0.16
0.50
45
D
30
0.34
45
D
30
0.25
45
D
30
0.21
45
D
30
0.31
0:08:32
0:00:24
0:09:50
0:00:19
0:10:52
0:00:19
0:11:30
0:00:15
0:14:26
0:16:27
0:00:15
0:18:38
0:20:01
0:00:26
0:20:53
0:00:26
0:00:34
0:00:26
0:00:20
0:22:13
0:00:38
0:23:09
0:00:18
0:01:08
0:00:24
0:00:15
0:24:56
0:00:49
0:00:19
0:26:04
0:00:24
0:26:57
0:00:19
0:27:41
0:00:30
6.95
No
0:00:24
0:00:26
6.70
No
0:07:39
0:00:39
6.36
No
0:01:02
0:00:57
5.86
No
0:05:00
0:00:33
5.61
30
0:00:48
0:01:17
5.45
D
0:03:40
0:00:53
5.27
45
0:00:11
0:01:28
4.92
0.25
0:03:00
0:01:49
4.43
30
0:00:11
0:00:20
3.86
B
0:02:27
0:00:43
3.28
45
0:01:39
0:00:11
0:00:54
3.12
20
0:00:15
0:00:29
2.76
F
0:00:00
0:01:37
2.31
45
0:00:00
0:00:32
2.08
0.16
0:00:00
0:00:28
1.54
30
Total Time
(hr:min:sec)
0:00:22
1.28
D
Dwell Time
(hr:min:sec)
0:00:36
0.94
45
Delay Time
(hr:min:sec)
0:01:24
0.67
No
Yes
Run Time
(hr:min:sec)
0.41
No
Yes
No
A
No
No
3
M
Yes
45
Total
Distance
0.00
No
Yes
2
N.W. 60th Ave./OPB
No
0.41
No
1
3
N.W. 64th Ave./OPB
Yes
20
No
3
2
Landings Dr./N.W. 68th Ave./OPB
Inverry Blvd./N.W. 56th Ave./OPB
1
No
A
No
Yes
W. Atrium/OPB
6
No
20
No
2
N.W. 84th Terrace/OPB
5
No
Distance
[mi]
No
2
N.W. 84th Ave./OPB
4
No
Coded
Speed
No
N. Haitus Road/OPB
N.W. 94th Ave./OPB
3
No
Segment
LOS
No
NW 115th Terrace/OPB
NW 33rd St./OPB
2
No
Posted
Speed
0:00:25
7.16
0:00:45
7.47
0:00:29
0:00:15
0:29:10
21
Example Application #1
Oakland Park Blvd. Alternatives Analysis
Eastbound
Travel Time
Summary
EB Travel
Time Components
as Portion
of Total TIme
0:50:24
0:41:59
0:43:12
0:41:59
0:41:07
0:37:02
0:36:39
0:35:46
0:36:00
0:29:28
0:27:51
0:26:43
0:28:48
0:23:59
0:23:59
0:21:29
0:21:36
0:14:24
0:12:29
0:10:10
Existing
0:12:29
0:10:10
0:07:12
0:00:00
0:18:57
0:18:42
No-Build Alt.
0:04:15
0:04:15
0:04:15
BRT Mixed (No
BAT)
BRT Mixed (w/
BAT)
BRT Exclusive
Alt.
Running Time
Signal Delay Time
0:04:15
SC Mixed (No
BAT)
0:04:15
SC Mixed (w/
BAT)
0:04:15
Streetcar Excl.
Alt.
Dwell Time
22
Example Application #1
Oakland Park Blvd. Alternatives Analysis
Eastbound Travel Time Summary
Project
Alternative
Existing
No-Build Alt.
BRT Mixed (No BAT)
BRT Mixed (w/ BAT)
BRT Exclusive Alt.
SC Mixed (No BAT)
SC Mixed (w/ BAT)
Streetcar Excl. Alt.
Running
Time
0:37:02
0:41:59
0:41:59
0:36:39
0:29:28
0:41:07
0:35:46
0:27:51
EASTOUND TRAVEL TIME
Delay
Dwell
Total
Time
Time
Time
0:21:29
0:10:10
1:08:42
0:26:43
0:10:10
1:18:52
0:23:59
0:04:15
1:10:13
0:18:42
0:04:15
0:59:36
0:12:29
0:04:15
0:46:12
0:23:59
0:04:15
1:09:21
0:18:57
0:04:15
0:58:58
0:12:29
0:04:15
0:44:35
% Impr.
Over N.B.
n/a
n/a
-11.0%
-24.4%
-41.4%
-12.1%
-25.2%
-43.5%
23
w
gr
Exist AM Pk
BRT Mixed, no BAT
BRT Mixed, w BAT
BRT Exclusive
U
S
1-
A1
-A
as
s
R Mi
oa lld No
b
N
H
ob
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H
i
Is l l R
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R d-P
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e
Pi
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U
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D Rd
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i
v
W eIn
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va
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Bl
56 vd
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Av e
N
W
e stN
56
W
th
Av
Av ee NW
49
N
th
W
49
th
Av
eSR
SR
-7
-7
-N
W
N
31
W
st
31
Av
st
e
Av
Av eN
N
e
W
W
27
27
th
th
Av
Av eN
e NW
W
21
21
st
st
Av
R e -P
d o
Po
w
er
w
er
lin
lin
e
e
Av RdA
e
An
nd
dr
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ew
w
s
s
Av
eD
ix
ie
H
w
D
y
ix
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H
w
yU
S1
Sa
Cumulative Time
Example Application #1
Oakland Park Blvd. Alternatives Analysis
Eastbound Cumulative Travel Times
Cumulative TImes for Bus Alternatives:
Sawgrass Mill to A1-A (Eastbound)
1:30:00
1:15:00
1:00:00
0:45:00
0:30:00
0:15:00
0:00:00
No Build
24
Example Application #2
Cotton Belt Corridor Regional Rail Project
• Proposed Crosstown Corridor Rail
Project in North Dallas Suburbs – from
Dallas/Fort Worth Airport to Plano
• Proposed Mode: Diesel Multiple Units
• Shared Track with Freight Operations
• Some Single Track Segments
25
Example Application #2
Cotton Belt Corridor Regional Rail Project
Mode/Vehicle
• Stadler GTW DMU 2-2/6 Low Floor Vehicle
• 2.2 mphps acceleration/2.5 mphps deceleration
Alignment
• 26.7 to 27.5 miles
• 9 to 12 stations
• Up to 5 segments with single track operations
Station Dwell Times
• 30 to 60 seconds
Roadway Congestion and Intersection Delay
• Not Applicable
26
Example Application #2
Cotton Belt Corridor Regional Rail Project
Cotton Belt String Line Diagram
8:00 AM
7:50 AM
7:40 AM
7:30 AM
Shiloh Road
Plano
PBGT
UT Dallas/Synergy Park
Renner Village
Preston
Addison
Knoll Trail
Downtown Carrollton
6:50 AM
Cypress Waters
7:00 AM
DFW North
7:10 AM
DFW Terminal A/B
7:20 AM
6:40 AM
6:30 AM
6:20 AM
6:10 AM
6:00 AM
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Distance from DFW A/B Sta on (miles)
27
2, 0
20
4, 0
40
6, 0
60
8, 0
80
11 0
,0
13 00
,2
15 00
,4
17 00
,6
19 00
,8
22 00
,0
24 00
,2
26 00
,4
28 00
,6
30 00
,8
33 00
,0
35 00
,2
37 00
,4
39 00
,6
41 00
,8
44 00
,0
46 00
,2
48 00
,4
50 00
,6
52 00
,8
55 00
,0
57 00
,2
59 00
,4
61 00
,6
63 00
,8
66 00
,0
68 00
,2
70 00
,4
72 00
,6
74 00
,8
77 00
,0
79 00
,2
81 00
,4
83 00
,6
85 00
,8
88 00
,0
90 00
,2
92 00
,4
94 00
,6
96 00
,8
99 00
,
10 000
1,
10 200
3,
10 400
5,
10 600
7,
8
11 00
0,
0
11 00
2,
2
11 00
4,
4
11 00
6,
6
11 00
8,
12 800
1,
12 000
3,
12 200
5,
12 400
7,
12 600
9,
13 800
2,
13 000
4,
13 200
6,
13 400
8,
14 600
0,
14 800
3,
00
0
MPH
Example Application #2
Cotton Belt Corridor Regional Rail Project
Cotton Belt Speed Profile (Both Directions)
70.0
Train Speeds (mph)
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
EB MPH
20.0
WB MPH
10.0
0.0
Feet from DFW Station
28
For More Information
James Baker
678-461-0969, Ext. 13
jbaker@ctgconsult.com
Thank You!
29