Economic Update
Economic Development Council of Seattle-King County
Board Meeting
February 27, 2014
Spencer Cohen
Senior Economic Analyst
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• As of December 2013, non-farm jobs in the Seattle
MSA grew by 44,800 jobs over the past 12 months
– A 3.1% year-over-year increase
• The not-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in
King County was 4.7% in December 2013, down
from 6.0% in December of 2012.
• Seattle area inflation was 1.3% (year-over-year) for
December 2013.
– Up from 0.6% in October 2013.
2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (continued)
• In January 2014, driver’s license transfers to King
County grew 18.3% year-over-year, from 3,858 to
4,565, based on a three month moving average.
• King County Taxable Retail Sales were $12.1 Billion
in Q3 2013, 7.4% greater than Q3 2012.
• Home price index is remained high, 30 points above
a recent low in February 2012.
3
CONTENTS
Three Questions, Six Measures
• Is the economy growing and if so, how rapidly?
– Two measures: Total jobs and new residents
• How is the cost of living changing?
– Key measure: Wages and Inflation
• How are we sustaining public sector services and
fiscal health?
– Two key measures: home prices and taxable retail
sales
4
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
Cumulative change in Seattle MSA and Washington
State Employment, 2001 - 2013
Percent Change
Washington
Washington
State
employment has
grown by
7.8% since
January 2001.
Seattle
Seattle
employment has
risen by 6.6%
in the same
period.
Seasonally adjusted, based on 3 month moving average
Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department; Community Attributes Inc.
5
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
Percent Change Quarterly Seattle MSA and
Washington State Employment, 2008 - 2013
% change by quarter,
year over year
Seattle
gained
44,800
Washington
Seattle
Seasonally adjusted, based on 3 month average
Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department; Community Attributes Inc.
in the last
12 months.
6
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
Seattle MSA Employment
Change in jobs, thousands,
month-over-month
“Professional and
Business
Services” added
Government and Education
Other Services
Finance, Insurance and
Real Estate (FIRE)
Information
Retail
over 7,400
jobs in 2013.
Retail added
8,500 jobs.
WTU
Construction and Resources
Manufacturing
Monthly change in jobs by sector (thousands), seasonally adjusted, based on 3 month moving average
Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department; Community Attributes Inc.
7
WHAT’S DRIVING GROWTH?
Change in Employment, Seattle MSA, Top 5 Sectors,
December 2012 to December 2013
Retail added
9,400 jobs
between
December 2012
and December
2013, equal to
21% of job gains
by subsector.
Year-over-year change in 3 month moving average, percentage change in parentheses
Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department; Community Attributes Inc.
8
MIGRATION
King County License Transfers
Total change year
over year
% change year
over year
In the last 12 months,
11,300 Californians
changed their residence
to King County, followed
by 3,600 Texans.
More than 1,000 people
from India changed their
license.
Total number of transfers (LHS) and year-over-year change (RHS), based on 3 month moving average
Sources: Washington State Department of Licensing; Community Attributes Inc.
9
COST OF LIVING
Seattle Urban Consumer Price Index
% change year over year
3.8%
CPI increased
slightly in the
December, up
1.3%
1.3%
compared to
0.6% in
October.
-0.5%
Year-over-year change, by month
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Community Attributes Inc.
10
HOUSING MARKET
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and Vacancy Rates
Vacancy Rate
Case-Shiller
index for
Seattle MSA is
30 points
above
recent low in
2012.
King County
apartment
vacancy up
0.5% from
April 2013.
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue MSA, 3mma for price index, 2009-2013 (Feb)
Sources: S&P Case-Shiller Indices Dupre+Scott; Community Attributes Inc.
11
RETAIL ACTIVITIES
Total Taxable Retail Sales, King County
Total taxable retail
sales peaked at
$12.1 billion in
the third quarter 2013.
Per capita taxable retail
sales grew 7.4% y/y
in Q3 2013.
Year-over-year change, by quarter
Sources: Washington State Department of Revenue; Community Attributes Inc.
12
Thank you!
Spencer Cohen
Senior Economic Analyst
Community Attributes Inc.
spencer.cohen@communityattributes.com
13
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
Unemployment and Labor Force, King County
Year-over-year change, December 2008 – December 2013
Percent Change
Early in the
recession, labor
force decelerated
faster than
unemployment rate.
Not seasonally adjusted, based on 3 month moving average
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Community Attributes Inc.
14
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
Initial Unemployment Claims, King County
Number of Claims
Construction
Not seasonally adjusted, based on 3 month moving average
Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department; Community Attributes Inc.
15