The Federal Reserve System Balance Sheet: What has Happened and Why it Matters Peter Stella Advisor Monetary and Capital Markets Department International Monetary Fund Swiss National Bank, Zurich, September 30, 2009 The views in this presentation are the author’s and do not represent those of the IMF, its Management or Executive Board Table 4. FRB Consolidated Balance Sheet end-2006 (In billions of dollars) Assets Government Securities Liabilities 784 FR Banknotes 783 Liquidity providing repos 41 Reverse repos w/ foreign entities 30 Foreign Exchange 21 Bank deposits 19 Gold 11 Government deposits Other assets (net) 11 Total 868 5 Capital and reserves 31 Total 868 Source: FRB Annual Report 2006 and author’s calculations. Figure 1: Consolidated FRB Total Assets: ratio to GDP 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2007 2008 Figure 2: US Federal Reserve Banks: Total Assets and Banknotes (in US$ billions) 2500 2000 1500 Total Assets Banknotes 1000 500 0 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2007 2008 Figure 3: US FRB Policy Assets in percent of GDP 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1996 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Figure 4: US Commercial Bank deposits at the FR in percent of GDP 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2007 2008 Largest US Commercial Banks end-2001 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 Name Bank of America JP Morgan Chase Citibank First Union/Wachovia Fleet Bank Federal Reserve Banks Consolidated Assets (in $billions) 552 538 452 233 188 Cumulative Market Share 9 18 25 29 32 51 Absolute share 1 % Source: Federal Reserve Board release Large Commercial Banks; and author’s calculations. FRB “absolute share” is FRB assets divided by total bank assets. Largest US Commercial Banks end-December 2008 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 Name JP Morgan Chase Bank of America Citibank Wachovia (since merged) Wells Fargo (since merged) U.S. Bank NA Federal Reserve Banks Consolidated Assets (in $billions) 1746 1472 1227 635 539 262 1690 Cumulative Market Share 15 28 39 44 49 51 Absolute Share 15% Sources: Federal Reserve Board release Large Commercial Banks; and author’s calculations. 2008 FRB data is from the Annual Report and shows FRB “absolute share” as calculated in Tables 3 and 4. Figure 13 Figure 12: US Consolidated FRB: Share of Treasuries and Agencies in Total Assets 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2007 2008 Dates 10/28/2009 10/14/2009 9/30/2009 9/16/2009 9/2/2009 8/19/2009 8/5/2009 7/22/2009 7/8/2009 6/24/2009 6/10/2009 5/27/2009 5/13/2009 4/29/2009 4/15/2009 4/1/2009 3/18/2009 3/4/2009 2/18/2009 2/4/2009 1/21/2009 1/7/2009 12/24/2008 12/10/2008 11/26/2008 11/12/2008 10/29/2008 10/15/2008 10/1/2008 9/17/2008 Billions of US dollars Figure 14: US Treasury SFP: Amounts Outstanding Actual and Projected as of September 16, 2009 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 US Federal Reserve Swaps with other Central Banks (in billions of US Dollars) Institution Bank of Canada * Banco de México * European Central Bank Swiss National Bank Bank of Japan Bank of Canada Bank of England Danmarks Nationalbank Reserve Bank of Australia Sveriges Riksbank Norges Bank Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bank of Korea Banco Central do Brasil Banco de México Monetary Authority of Singapore Total Amount of Facility Outstanding as of December 31, 2008 2 3 Unlimited Unlimited Unlimited 30 Unlimited 15 30 30 15 15 30 30 30 30 Unlimited 0 0 291.4 25.2 122.7 0 33.1 15 22.8 25 8.2 0 10.4 0 0 0 553.7 Source: Treasury and Federal Reserve Foreign Exchange Operations (October - December 2008) * All swaps other than these are temporary. Table 4. FRB Consolidated Balance Sheet end-2006 (In billions of dollars) Assets Government Securities Liabilities 784 FR Banknotes 783 Liquidity providing repos 41 Reverse repos w/ foreign entities 30 Foreign Exchange 21 Bank deposits 19 Gold 11 Government deposits Other assets (net) 11 Total 868 5 Capital and reserves 31 Total 868 Source: FRB Annual Report 2006 and author’s calculations. Table 5. FRB Consolidated Balance Sheet end-2008 (In billions of dollars) Assets Government Securities Liabilities 496 FR Banknotes Foreign Exchange Swaps 554 Reverse repos w/foreign entities Term Auction Credit 450 Bank deposits Commercial paper funding facility 334 Other loans 194 Liquidity providing repos 80 Government deposits Maiden Lane LLC holdings 74 Foreign Exchange Gold Total 853 88 860 365 Other Liabilities (net) 51 Capital and Reserves 42 66 11 2259 Source: FRB H.4.1 and author’s calculations. Total 2259 Figure 15 US Federal Reserve Bank Risk Assets to Capital Ratios 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Consoldiated FRB Average Summary of Static Risk Assumptions (in percent) Table 8. Summary of Static Risk Assumptions (in percent) Asset Default LGD TAF/Primary 20 12 CPFF/AMLF 10 15 AIG Loan 75 50 Maiden Lane 75 80 TALF 30 35 Source: Author’s assumptions US FRB: Risk and Loss Assumptions (projected end-2009 balance sheet as of May 2009) Table 9. Summary of FRB Loss Scenario Envelope (US$ billion) Exposure “Loss” TAF/Primary 577 14 CPFF/AMLF 358 5 AIG Loan 39 15 Maiden Lane 74 44 TALF (proj) 1000 105 Total 2048 183 Asset Source: Author’s assumptions US Federal Reserve System Capacity to Absorb Losses Nature of the reserve Current capital and reserves Annual profit Banknote issuance Subtotal Revaluation of gold Mark to Market SOMA (Treasury/Agencies) Present Value in U.S.$ billion 42.2 30.7 27.8 100.7 235.6 64.2 Notes End-December 2008 Average 2004-2008 Average 2004-2008 Gold at 943.25 per ounce* End-December 2008 Source: Federal Reserve Board Annual Reports (various); author’s calculations. London mid-morning fixing price March 4, 2009. Figure 17: FRB Profit in scenario 1 (US$ billions) 100 50 0 2008 -50 -100 -150 -200 -250 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Figure 18: FRB capital in scenario 1 (percent of GDP) 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 0.0% Figure 19: FRB Profit in scenario 2 (US$ billions) 100 50 0 2008 -50 -100 -150 -200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Figure 20: FRB capital in scenario 2 (percent of GDP) 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% -0.5% -1.0% 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 0.0% Figure 21: FRB Profit in scenario 3 (US$ billions) 100 80 60 40 20 0 2008 -20 -40 -60 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Figure 22: FRB capital in scenario 3 (percent of GDP) 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 0.0% US Federal Reserve: Risk and Loss Assumptions projected (September 9 2009 ) Table A2 Summary of FRB Loss Scenario Envelope (US$ billion) Asset Exposure “Loss” TAF /Primary 232 6 CPFF /AMLF 46 1 AIG Loan 39 15 Maiden Lane 61 37 TALF 37 4 Total 415 63 Source: Author’s assumptions Federal Reserve System: Financial or Governance Risk? It is quite improbable that the FRB would encounter financial problems necessitating a change in monetary policy However, there are considerable political pressures to restrict the Fed’s operational independence given the sharply contrasting governance arrangements for the US Treasury and FRB although, in reality, they are provided with similar powers In order to prevent a loss of monetary policy independence, it may be advisable to isolate those strictly monetary authority functions and place them under a more streamlined governance structure (FOMC?) The FRB “emergency” powers, under section 13.3 might then be placed in a more directly politically accountable governance structure—with US Treasury and Regulator representation. Federal Reserve System Balance Sheet Risk Management and the Exit Strategy Website publication of SPV balance sheets and consolidation with FRB accounts accompanied by descriptions of unconventional measures marks significant progress in transparency Reconfigure FRB balance sheet to reduce risk and build capital Dispose of SPVs, enhance reserves, move toward dividend distribution after publication of audited accounts Separate monetary policy with all elements under FOMC or reformed structure Small operations with minimal credit risk Financial market stability entity with intervention capacity Scaleable balance sheet w/o capacity to create money Design governance structure and determine how SMC would fit within the new regulatory and supervisory framework