India’s Gold Fetish and Switzerland’s Data Secrecy Devesh Kapur, Marla Spivack, Arvind Subramanian, and Milan Vaishnav* November 5, 2013 *Devesh Kapur is at the University of Pennsylvania, Marla Spivack and Arvind Subramanian at the Center for Global Development, and Milan Vaishnav at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The authors are grateful to Alex Cobham, Edward Collins, Kimberly Elliott, Willa Friedman, Kishore Gawande, Nabil Hashmi, Christian Meyer, Andres Missbach, Mead Over, and Justin Sandefur for advice and comments. All errors are our own. Agenda I. Motivation II. Data III.Explanations IV.Conclusions Motivation Recent years have seen much higher growth rates than previous decades 8 6 4 2 0 Percent annual GDP growth 10 India annual GDP growthRate rate India's Annual Growth 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 Source: World Bank. Annual percentage growth in GDP. Aggregates are based on constant 2005 USD A period of large scale scandals – as the pie grows so do opportunities for rents Ethereal Terrestrial Subterranean 2G telecom scam: Ex-chief minister Y.S. Reddy land scandal “Coal-gate” scam: Price tag: $13 billion Price tag: $16.2 billion Price tag: $33 billion What about illicit outflows? Near-perfect correlation between gold imports and current account deficit Gold and Current Account Deficit Four Facts about Gold Imports 1. Financial savings and gold 2. Composition of gold imports 3. Share of gold imports from Switzerland 4. Discrepancies 1. Financial savings have been falling relative to GDP as gold imports have been rising relative to GDP 4% 3% 12% 3% 11% 2% 2% 10% 1% 9% 1% 8% 1998 2000 2002 2004 HH savings as a share of GDP 2006 2008 2010 0% 2012 Gold imports as a share of GDP Sources: IMF International Financial Statistics, Reserve Bank of India, UN Comtrade Gold Imports as a Share of GDP HH Savings as a Share of GDP 13% Indian Gold Imports by Typ 2. Gold imports are mostly Quantity in Kilograms composed of gold bars 1,000,000 50,000 Indian Gold Imports by Type of Gold Indian Gold Imports Partner Indian Gold Imports by Partner Indian Gold Imports byby Type of Gold Value Millions of 2010 USD 40,000 Value Millionsof of2010 2010USD USD Value ininMillions Value Millions of 2010 USD Quantity in Kilograms 800,000 Quantity Kilograms Quantity Quantityinin inKilograms Kilograms 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 30,000 600,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 800,000 800,000 800,000 800,000 10,000 200,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 gold bars manufactured and powdered gold Allother otherpartners partners Switzerland All gold bars manufacturedSwitzerland and powdered gold gold bars 0 000 0 1999 1999 2006 1999 1999 2000 2000 2000 2000 2007 2001 2001 2001 2001 2002 2008 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2009 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 2010 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2011 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2012 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 1999 1999 1999 1999 2000 2000 2000 2000 2001 2001 2001 2001 2002 2002 2002 2002 2003 2003 2003 2003 2004 2004 2004 2004 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 1999 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2000 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2001 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2002 2012 2012 2012 2012 0 2003 200,000 200,000 200,000 200,000 0 000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 2005 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 400,000 2004 600,000 600,000 600,000 600,000 gold bars manufactured and powdered gold Allother otherpartners partners Switzerland All gold bars manufacturedSwitzerland and powdered gold manufactured and powdered gold 3. Switzerland is aPartners' key import Export of Gold to In Less India's Import of gold from P partner for India Quantity in Kilograms Valu Indian Gold Imports by Partner 1988 1990Quantity in Kilograms Value in Millions of 2010 USD 1992 1,000,000 50,000 1994 1996 800,000 40,000 1998 2000 600,000 30,000 2002 2004 400,000 20,000 2006 2008 200,000 10,000 -1,000,000 All other partners -800,000 -600,000 Switzerland Switzerland -400,000 -200,000 All other partners All other partners 0 -40,000 Switzerland 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 1999 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2012 2001 2000 0 1999 2010 -30,00 Swit 4. There are large discrepancies in India’s Partners' Export of Gold to I reported imports ofLess gold and Import partners India's of gold from reported exports to India Quantity in Kilograms Va 1988 export of gold to India less India’s import of gold from partners Partners Partners' Export of Gold to India Less India's Import of gold from Partners 1990 Quantity in Kilograms 1992 1999 Value in Millions of 2010 USD 1994 1999 2001 1996 2001 2002 1998 2002 2000 2004 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2000 2003 2005 2002 2006 2004 2007 2006 2009 2008 2008 2010 2010 2012 2011 2012-800,000 -1,000,000 -600,000 Switzerland -1,000,000 -400,000 -200,000 0 -40,000 All other partners -800,000 -600,000 Switzerland -30,000 -20,000 Switzerland -400,000 -200,000 All other partners -10,000 0 All other partners 0 -40,000 -30, Sw Papers in the existing literature examine underinvoicing exports to avoid taxes, but what about capital outflows via over invoicing of imports? “Tax Rates and Tax Evasion: Evidence from ‘Missing Imports’ in China” Fisman & Wei (2004) Journal of Political Economy. “Tariffs, enforcement, and customs evasion: Evidence from India” Mishra, Subramanian, & Topalova (2008) Journal of Public Economics. Data Indian Imports India import from country c of product p in time t Country c export to India of product p in time t Outflows: over invoicing of imports Country exportcpt – India importcpt ≤ 0 = over invoicing of imports over invoicing of imports = financial outflow from India Challenge: many unmatched pairs Indian Imports Observations Share Partner exports to India with no matching import 367,797 23% Indian imports from partners with no matching export 539,235 33% Matched Indian Imports and Partner Exports 721,851 44% Total 1,628,883 Two possible extreme assumptions for unmatched observations: Smuggling Assumption Assume, if India reports an import and partner does not report an export, the product was smuggled or never actually never exported. Code the missing value as 0. No Smuggling / Error Assumption Assume, if India reports an import and partner does not report an export, this is an error. Drop these observations. Total outflows increasing over time under both smuggling and no smuggling assumptions Partner reported exports to India less India reported imports from partner Total outflows - no smuggling assumption No smuggling assumption Total outflows - assumption smuggling assumption Smuggling 1999 1999 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 -200,000 -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 -80,000 -60,000 Millions of 2010 USD -40,000 Millions of 2010 USD Millions of 2010 USD -20,000 0 Key commodities standout in over invoicing of imports Partner reported exports to India less India reported imports from partner Smuggling assumption No smuggling assumption Millions of 2010 USD Key commodities make up a greater percentage of over invoiced imports than of total imports. Key commodities as a percentage of Key commodities as a percentage of total imports over invoicing of imports 73 70 64 62 70 72 60 57 63 53 65 64 55 56 57 51 46 36 smuggling assumption Key partners standout in over invoicing of imports Partner reported exports to India less India reported imports from partner Smuggling assumption No smuggling assumption Millions of 2010 USD Key partners account for a greater percentage of over invoicing of imports than of total imports Percent of total imports from key partner countries 59 58 59 58 54 50 48 Percent of over invoicing of imports from key partner countries 55 42 48 45 50 43 44 39 40 38 25 smuggling assumption Switzerland stand’s out in over invoicing of India’s gold imports Partner reported exports of gold to India less India reported imports of gold from partner– smuggling assumption These discrepancies persist when we look at discrepancies in quantities. Partner reported exports of gold to India less India reported imports of gold from partners – smuggling assumption Discrepancies are not the result of mispricing. Indian prices closely track world prices 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 World and Indian GoldPrice Prices, Nominal of Nominal Gold Dollars 1990 1995 2000 year Indian price 2005 World price 2010 Gold bars stands out in total over invoicing of gold imports, but when we drop unmatched observations these inconsistencies disappear, why? Partner reported exports of gold to India less India reported imports of gold from partner No smuggling assumption Value Millions of 2010 USD Smuggling assumption Value Millions of 2010 USD 1999 1999 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 -40,000 -30,000 gold bars -20,000 -10,000 manufactured and powdered gold 0 -6,000 -4,000 gold bars Millions of 2010 USD -2,000 manufactured and powdered gold 0 We see extreme discrepancies in gold bars because Switzerland (and other countries) do not report country specific exports of gold bars Indian imports from Switzerland Swiss exports to India Explanations Benign explanation Swiss don’t report, but not for any nefarious reason. Non-reporting policy was adopted many years ago (see next slide) and remains because of policy inertia. If Switzerland reported country-specific figures for its gold exports we would see that they closely mirror India reported imports from Switzerland. January 1981 “ “ Switzerland stopped publication of detailed statistics on monthly gold movements in and out of the country after complaints from leading Banks that it was bad for business.... …the “Big Three” [banks] manager of the Zurich gold pool complained that identification of countries of origin and destination was harming business, as anonymity is a vital element in dealing with sellers and purchasers of gold. ” ” Malign explanation Switzerland is an attractive destination for capital, because of Swiss financial secrecy. Those wishing to move funds out of India are taking advantage of the Swiss nonreporting to mask illicit flows in the large Swiss-India gold trade. June, 2013 ““ …Efforts to lift the veil on Swiss banking secrecy have gained momentum… …India dispatched - 232 requests for secret financial information - to Switzerland, [and] 145 similar letters to Mauritius during 2012-13. …While a huge investment into the country is routed from Mauritius, a number of high-value and criminal probes - are connected to black money stashed in Swiss banks… ….Among the major countries to which India dispatched its secret tax and finance related queries during 2012-13 fiscal were United Arab Emirates (38), United Kingdom (26), United States of America (61), British Virgin Island (22), Cyprus (16), Denmark (11) and Singapore (19)... ” Swiss Federal Customs Agency confirms that 1981 policy is still in place “[An] MP has asked parliament to revisit this policy. If parliament agrees to a more detailed publication of data [a new policy] could come into effect by 2014. “Since …1981, gold data can only be published quarterly and without partner countries.” Wrapping up: benign explanations • Increase in gold imports reflects gold prices and domestic inflation • Imports from Switzerland because Switzerland produces high quality gold bars • Discrepancy because Switzerland does not publish export data Wrapping up: malign explanations • Growth led to ill-begotten wealth, some of which is stashed domestically in gold • Hence the decline in financial savings and increase in gold imports • The gold trade channel offers a convenient way of expatriating wealth to the tax haven, which also happens to be the source of imports. This channel is not only, convenient it is also “legitimate,” at least in the limited sense that payments can be made through the banking system for prima facie legal (namely trade) purposes. • And conveniently, Switzerland does not publish details of gold export data even though it publishes all other export data When endogenous rents emerge, gold offers 4 advantages Domestically, many prefer to store wealth in gold Internationally, over invoicing gold allows outflows Money can be sent to Switzerland without suspicion Swiss do not publish exports of certain types of gold Conclusions • Since 1981, the Swiss have not reported country specific data on imports or exports of gold – What is the rationale behind this policy in 2013? • The international community has made great strides in efforts to improve transparency and curtail money laundering and tax evasion. – Switzerland has been responsive to these efforts, led by the the US and other rich nations • It is time to extend transparency to areas of concern to developing nations, struggling to improve governance and reduce corruption. – Switzerland could help in this endeavor by publishing details of its gold trade. • Unraveling the mystery of India’s gold fetish could well be in the hands of the bureaucrats of Berne. – The clarion call from developing countries to Switzerland should be: “Publish or We Perish” www.cgdev.org/initiative/understanding-india @cgdev