Daniele Alami
ETNA volcano
An example of Time Series Analysis
Geographic Characteristic
•
Country :Italy
•
Subregion Name :Italy / Sicily
•
Volcano Number : 0101-06=
•
Volcano Type : Stratovolcanoes
•
Volcano Status: Historical
•
Last Known Eruption : 2010 Summit
•
Elevation : 3330 m
•
Latitude : 37.734°N 37°44'3"N
•
Longitude : 15.004°E 15°0'16"E
10,925 feet
sources: http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=0101-06=
Eruptions Characteristic
• Alternation of effusive and explosive eruption
• Central vent eruption
• Lateral vent eruption
• Radial fissure eruption
• Lava flows
• Pyroclastic flows
• Phreatic explosion
sources: http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=0101-06=
Choose of the data analysis
• Only the time pattern of the 3 major active crater in storical time.
• Only the data registered since 1000 AC each for the three major
active crater.
• Uncertane data BC obtained aftyer radiometric or tephra layers
analysis.
• Many eruption occur in the same time in different crater causing an
overlapping of the time pattern
• These three principal crater are the principal producer of lava
volume of this volcano .
sources: http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=0101-06=
The three Summit crater: Central, NE, SE
Duration of historical activity on the 3 major crater in historical time
Frequency
Central crater
In this graphs are possible to recognize the
Central crater like the crater with major activity
In terms of durations for the eruptions.
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
5
10
15 20 25 30 35
Duration, years
40
45
50
SE crater
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Frequency
Frequency
NE crater
0
1
2
3
4
Duration, years
5
6
7
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
Duration, years
sources: http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=0101-06=
Duration of historical eruptions on the 3 major active crater ( Central, NE & SE)
50
Central crater
45
40
We haven’t a cycle for the
duration of the eruption but
costant values for almost all of
that. The peaks in the graphs
shows only rare event where the
explosion activity is more
intense except for the NE crater.
35
30
Series1
25
20
2 per. Mov. Avg.
(Series1)
15
10
5
2008
1992
1958
1941
1918
1911
1898
1887
1868
1839
1802
1787
1728
1536
0
8
NE crater
7
14
SE crater
12
6
10
5
Series1
4
2
2 per. Mov. Avg. 6
(Series1)
4
1
2
3
1865
1917
1923
1930
1935
1946
1949
1957
1959
1980
1984
1989
1994
2002
2008
0
Series1
8
2 per. Mov. Avg.
(Series1)
0
20072004199119881986198519791971190817921250
sources: http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=0101-06=
Relationship between duration of eruptions and repose time for the 3 major active
crater ( Central, Ne & SE)
1800
Central crater
1600
1400
1200
Series1
1000
800
2 per. Mov. Avg.
(Series1)
600
In all of the three major craters
We have a decreasing of the
Inactivity time when we come
To present day.
400
200
0
2000 1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 1400
160
900
140
NE crater
120
800
SE crater
700
600
100
Series1
80
Series1
500
400
2 per. Mov. Avg.
(Series1)
60
40
2 per. Mov. Avg.
(Series1)
300
200
100
20
0
20001900 1800 1700 1600 15001400 1300 1200
0
2000
1900
1800
sources: http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=0101-06=
Volcanic Explosive Index for the 3 major active crater in historical time ( Central, NE &SE)
Frequency
VEI index for Central crater
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Etna is a stratovolcanoes wich alternating
Period of exploisve eruption and period with lava
Flows and effusive eruption.
By the graphs we recognized an avarage in the
Activity signed by a VEI index level around 2.
VEI index
VEI index for NE crater
VEI index for SE crater
20
Frequency
Frequency
25
15
10
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
VEI index
6
7
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
VEI index
sources: http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=0101-06=
Conclusion: forecasting volcanic eruptions for the 3
major crater (Central, NE & SE)
Is there a time cycle during the evolution of Etna volcano in the
last 1000 years?
Every events occured on each of the three major crater is casual
or follow some rules?
What’s appear after the analysis of the time series of each
crater?
What we might expect in a future relying only on observations
made on this time pattern?