6.4.23 Advice October 2013 ECOREGION STOCK North Sea Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in Divisions IIIa West and IVa East (Skagerrak and the Norwegian Deep) Advice for 2014 ICES advises on the basis of MSY considerations that catches should be no more than 6000 t in 2014. If discard rates do not change from the average of the last three years, this implies landings of no more than 5426 t. Additionally, measures should be taken to address highgrading. F (Fishing Mortality) 2010 2011 2,0 2012 1970 At target MSY (FMSY) Precautionary approach (Fpa,Flim) Not defined SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 2011 2012 2013 Precautionary approach (Bpa,Blim) Above limit Relative fishing mortality FMSY Flim 1970 1975 1980 Figure 6.4.23.1 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Relative Biomass (Bmsy=1) Above trigger Relative fishing mortality (Fmsy=1) MSY (Btrigger) 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 Relative biomass (Bmsy=1) Stock status 1,5 1,0 2013 Btrig 0,5 Blim 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 F1,0 msy 1,2 1,4 Relative fishing mortality (Fmsy=1) 3,0 2,5 Relative Biomass MSY Btrigger Blim 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Northern shrimp in Divisions IIIa West and IVa East. Summary of the stock assessment. Landings and estimated catches. Recruitment index: abundance of 1-group shrimp from the Norwegian shrimp survey (2006–2013). Estimates (medians) of relative fishing mortality (F/FMSY) and relative biomass (B/BMSY). Grey boxes are interquartile ranges; the arms of each box are 90% credibility intervals. Top right: Relative biomass and F for the time series used in the assessment. The assessment is considered indicative of stock trends and provides relative rather than absolute measures of stock status. Since the beginning of the 1990s stock biomass has been above MSY Btrigger and fishing mortality below FMSY, although in recent years stock biomass approached MSY Btrigger and F has been very close to FMSY. Recruitment indices have increased from a low value in 2010. Management plans No specific management objectives are known to ICES. ICES Advice 2013 Book 6 1 1,6 Biology Northern shrimp are hermaphroditic. Individuals start out as males, but after 2–4 years they change sex and complete their lives as females. Several fish and marine mammal species prey on Northern shrimp and may, under certain circumstances, be important drivers of Northern shrimp stock dynamics. Natural mortality for northern shrimp in Divisions IIIa West and IVa East is probably higher than fishing mortality. The fisheries Northern shrimps are mainly caught by 35–45 mm single- and twin-trawl nets (minimum legal mesh size is 35 mm). The targeted northern shrimp fishery in Denmark has declined over the last 20 years, whereas the Norwegian shrimp fleet of vessels < 11 m has expanded. Swedish fishery showed an increase in the use of twin trawls since around 2007. Due to the increasing use of twin trawl in all fisheries (and the accompanying increase in the size of the trawls), the efficiency of the fisheries has increased. Catch distribution Total catches (2012) = 8834 kt, where 88% are landings (100% trawl) and 12% discards. Effects of the fisheries on the ecosystem When sorting grids are not used, bycatch species, dominated by saithe and cod, may constitute up to 30% of the landed catch. In addition, the shrimp survey indicates that deep-sea species such as argentines, roundnose grenadier, rabbitfish, and sharks are frequently caught in shrimp trawls in the deeper parts of Skagerrak and the Norwegian Deep. A legislation requiring a species-selective grid has been implemented in the Skagerrak since 1st February 2013. Quality considerations Making the electronic logbooks introduced in the Norwegian fishery in 2011 compulsory for all vessels, instead of only vessels ≥15 m (≥12 m in Skagerrak, since 2013), would result in a considerable increase in the quality of the data available for the assessment. The assessment model best describes trends in stock development and is not fully sensitive to year-to-year changes. Large and rapid changes in recruitment may therefore not be fully captured in model predictions. Scientific basis Assessment type Stock data category Input data Discards and bycatch Indicators Other information Working group report 2 Bayesian fitting of a surplus-production model. Category 1 Commercial landings (until 2007), commercial catches (since 2008), two survey indices (Norwegian shrimp survey 1984–2002 and 2006–2013), and two commercial indices (Danish and Norwegian standardized lpue). Discards are included in the assessment (Norwegian, Danish, and Swedish fleets since 2008). Swedish standardized lpue. A length-based analytical assessment model was adopted at the 2013 benchmark meeting but was not fully operational for providing advice for this year’s assessment. A surplus production model was used this year instead. NIPAG (ICES, 2013b). ICES Advice 2013, Book 6 6.4.23 Supporting information October 2013 ECOREGION STOCK North Sea Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in Divisions IIIa West and IVa East (Skagerrak and the Norwegian Deep) Reference points MSY approach Precautionary approach Type Value MSY Btrigger 0.5 of BMSY* FMSY * Blim Bpa Flim Fpa 0.3 of BMSY Not defined. 1.7 of FMSY Not defined. Technical basis Relative value. BMSY is directly estimated from the assessment surplus production model and changes when the assessment is updated. Relative value. FMSY is directly estimated from the assessment surplus production model and changes when the assessment is updated. Relative value. Relative value (the F that drives the stock to Blim). (New in 2013) * Fishing mortality is estimated in relation to FMSY and total stock biomass is estimated in relation to BMSY. Outlook for 2014 Basis: Catches (2013) = 9 5; median F2013/FMSY = (catch constraint) = 0.95; median B2014 > MSY Btrigger. Catch options 2014* 6 8 10 12 14 * Stock size (B2015/BMSY), median 0.84 0.81 0.78 0.76 0.73 Fishing mortality (F2014/FMSY), median 0.54 0.74 0.97 1.19 1.45 Probability of B2015 falling below Blim 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% Probability of F2014 exceeding Flim 5% 10% 19% 29% 39% Catches in thousand tonnes. MSY considerations The stock biomass is expected to be above MSY Btrigger in 2014. Hence, the MSY approach corresponds to fishing at FMSY (or lower) in 2014. Catches of 10 000 t in 2014 correspond to median F2014/FMSY = 0.97. Therefore, catches of up to 10 000 t in 2014 are considered consistent with the MSY approach. With these catches in 2014, the stock biomass is forecast to remain above MSY Btrigger in 2015. However, in the benchmark of this stock, concluded in 2013, two models were considered appropriate for the assessment of this stock; a surplus production model (presented here) and a length-based model. The benchmark group (IBPP and; ICES, 2013a) preferred the length-based model because it incorporates more data (mainly, length information), but concluded that it was not fully operational to provide catch advice this year. Both models show similar stock trends for most of the time-series, but the length-based model indicates a far higher fishing mortality in the last years (Figure 6.4.23.3). ICES advice in the near future will likely be based on the length-based model, and ICES considers that the current advice should take into account the uncertainty due to the different interpretations of recent fishing mortality. It should be noted that any catch value in the range 6000–10 000 t in 2014 corresponds to a 6% probability of B2015 being less than Blim. This indicates that the probability surface is very flat and, therefore, a formal 5% probability criterion would imply a very low catch in 2014, well below any catch value observed in the last three decades, which is considered overly restrictive. At the same time, both assessments show a substantial decrease in stock biomass in recent years (in line with the decreases in the Norwegian survey and commercial lpue indices) and a big increase in F in the case of the length-based assessment. Therefore, a cautious approach to the advice is required this year, until historical stock development and current status in relation to reference points are further evaluated and confirmed by the lengthbased assessment model selected by the benchmark (IBPPand). Taking all the above elements into consideration, ICES advises that catches in 2014 should not exceed 6000 t in 2014. If discard rates do not change from the average of the last three years (2010–2012), this corresponds to landings of no more than 5426 t. ICES Advice 2013 Book 6 3 Additional considerations As many fish species prey on Northern shrimp, predators (e.g. cod and saithe) have a significant effect on the stock dynamics of Northern shrimp. A benchmark was finalized for this stock in 2013 (ICES, 2013a) to decide on an appropriate assessment model. The benchmark discussed a length-based model and a surplus production model, which gave generally similar results (except for the last years, when they show more differences) and were both considered capable of forming the basis for the stock assessment. It was concluded that the length-based model is preferred because it made more use of the available data from the surveys and catches, and because it is relatively easy to update and run. It was decided that the surplus production model should be run alongside the length-based model, at least initially, to ensure that assessments from the two models are consistent and that differences are noted and the reasons for them understood. Since the lengthbased model was not fully operational to provide catch advice this year, the surplus production model is presented as the basis for the advice this year. However, the differences found between the preferred length-based model and the surplus production model also influenced the advice provided. A joint Nordic–EU project (Interreg. IV, 2011–2013) has investigated the stock structure of northern shrimp using genetics and fisheries data through an extensive collaboration with the industry. The shrimp in Skagerrak and the Norwegian Deep most likely comprise one single stock, which is in agreement with the oceanic current pattern in the area. The benchmark assessment in September 2013 thus concluded that the northern shrimp in the Skagerrak and Norwegian Deep area can be considered to belong to one single stock for assessment purposes. The estimate of the Danish lpue is based on fishing trips where the landing value of northern shrimp was at least 50% of the landing value of all species. This threshold was selected to ensure the exclusion of trips where northern shrimp is landed as a bycatch rather than as a target species. Uncertainties on discards and highgrading estimates have been reduced following discard data collection in the European Data Collection Framework. Regulations and their effects The main regulatory measure is a TAC, which is not fully fished by all countries. Discarding of small and mediumsized, low-value shrimp may occur in the Swedish fishery, and since around 2011 discarding of small shrimp has also been documented in the Danish and Norwegian fisheries. The estimated discards are included in the total catch. Minimum legal mesh size is 35 mm, but an increasing number of shrimp vessels use 45 mm mesh in the codend. The management of northern shrimp fisheries should address the discarding of small shrimps, which occurs mainly in the Swedish fleet due to highgrading as a consequence of a restrictive quota. In 2012, estimated discards amounted to 12% of the total catch (1063 t discarded). Sorting grids should be mandatory in all areas to minimize bycatch. Additionally, all vessels, including Norwegian vessels < 15 m (< 12 m in Skagerrak) that are not currently using electronic logbooks, should be required to provide logbooks, as this would result in a considerably increase in the quality of the data available for the assessment. Changes in fishing technology and fishing patterns The number of Danish shrimp vessels has decreased from 138 in 1987 to only 10 in 2013. Most of the vessels leaving the fishery have been small trawlers. The efficiency of the Danish shrimp vessels has increased due to the introduction of twin-trawl technology and increasing trawl size. In the Norwegian shrimp fleet small vessels < 11 m are the most numerous, as a licence to fish is not required for vessels < 11 m. Information on gear use (single, twin trawl) for all vessels ≥15 m (≥12 m in Skagerrak) is available from compulsory electronic logbooks introduced in 2011. Since 2006, the number of Swedish twin trawlers has increased from 5 to 23. These twin trawlers have 50–80% higher catch rate compared to single trawls. In Swedish national waters it is mandatory to use trawls equipped with sorting grids. Comparison with previous assessment and advice The 2012 advice was based on ICES approach to data-limited stocks, taking into account the Norwegian survey biomass index (category 3 of data limited stocks). In 2013 ICES is providing advice on an analytical basis for this stock (category 1), after several years without such an assessment. The advice this year is based on MSY considerations. 4 ICES Advice 2013, Book 6 Assessment and management area This assessment is carried out for the stock in the Norwegian Deep and Skagerrak (Figure 6.4.23.2). TACs in this region are set for Division IIIa (EU and Norwegian share) and for the Norwegian zone of the North Sea south of 62°N. Figure 6.4.23.2 Northern shrimp in Divisions IIIa West and IVa East. Assessment areas in the North Sea and Skagerrak are shown as dark grey. The Fladen Ground stock (light grey) is described in Section 6.4.24. Sources ICES. 2013a. Report of the Inter-Benchmark Protocol on Pandalus in Skagerrak and the Norwegian Deep (IBPPand), 12–19 September 2013, Dartmouth, NS, Canada. ICES CM 2013/ACOM:71. 10 pp. ICES. 2013b. Report of the Joint NAFO/ICES Pandalus Assessment Working Group (NIPAG), 12–19 September 2013, Halifax, Canada. ICES CM 2013/ACOM:14. ICES Advice 2013 Book 6 5 Recruitment Fishing mortality Spawning Stock Biomass Figure 6.4.23.3 6 Northern shrimp in Divisions IIIa West and IVa East. Estimates of recruitment, F1-3 and SSB from the lengthbased model. (red lines with 90% confidence intervals in grey) ICES Advice 2013, Book 6 Table 6.4.23.1 Northern shrimp in Divisions IIIa West and IVa East. ICES advice, management, discards, landings, and catch. In 2012 it was decided not to use discard estimates prior to 2008. Year ICES Advice Predicted Predicted TAC TAC Discard ICES ICES landings catch Norwegian estimates landings catch corresp. corresp. Div. IIIa zone (discards to advice to advice Div. IV1 and landings) 1987 Not assessed 14.2 1988 Catches significantly below 1985–19863 12.2 1989 No advice 3.1 2 11.2 1990 IIIa: F as F(pre-1985); IVa East: 10.0 2.75 2 10.2 No increase in F 1991 No increase in F; TAC 12.0 8.55 11.6 1992 Within safe biological limits 15 3 10.50 4.500 13.1 1993 Within safe biological limits 13 3 10.50 4.500 12.8 1994 Within safe biological limits 19 3 12.60 5.400 11.5 1995 Within safe biological limits 13 3 11.20 4.800 13.4 1996 No advice 11 3 10.50 4.500 14.1 1997 No advice 13 3 10.50 4.500 15.1 1998 No increase in F; TAC 19 3 13.16 5.640 15.5 1999 Maintain F 19 3 13.16 5.640 11.3 2000 Maintain F < 11.5 3 9.10 3.900 11.0 2001 Maintain F 13.4 10.15 4.350 11.3 2002 Long-term average landings 12.6 10.15 4.350 12.5 2003 Maintain F 14.7 10.15 4.425 13.8 2004 No increase in F 15.3 4 10.71 4.590 16.0 2005 No increase in catch above recent level ~13 4 10.71 4.590 14.2 2006 No increase in catch above recent level ~13.5 4 11.2 4.800 14.3 2007 No increase in landings above recent level ~14.0 4 11.62 4.980 13.6 2008 No increase in landings above recent level ~15 4 11.62 4.980 0.5 13.0 13.6 2009 Same advice as last year ~15 4 11.62 4.980 0.5 11.1 11.5 2010 No increase in landings above 2008 level ~13 4 9.8 4.200 0.6 7.8 8.3 2011 At least 30% decrease in landings of 2007– < 8.8 8.3 3.570 0.9 8.2 9.0 2009, reduce discards, mandatory sorting grids 2012 Reduce catches and reduce discards 7.1 3.035 1.1 7.8 8.8 2013 Reduce landings by 36% and reduce ≤ 5.8 6.65 2.850 discards 2014 MSY considerations, reduce discards ≤ 5.426 ≤ 6.0 Weights in thousand tonnes. 1 TACs in the Norwegian zone of Division IVa. 2 EU zone only. 3 Catch at status quo F. 4 Single-stock boundaries and the exploitation of this stock should be conducted in the context of mixed fisheries protecting stocks outside safe biological limits. ICES Advice 2013 Book 6 7 Table 6.4.23.2 Year 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Denmark *) 1102 1190 1017 755 530 817 1204 1120 1459 1062 1678 2593 3766 1804 1800 4498 4866 4488 3240 3242 2479 3583 3725 2915 2134 2460 3868 3909 3330 2072 2371 1954 2470 3270 3944 2992 3111 2422 2274 2224 1301 1601 1454 Northern shrimp in Divisions IIIa West and IVa East. Nominal landings in Division IIIa and Subarea IV; landings, discards, and catches (in tonnes) as estimated by ICES; and the TAC (for Division IIIa and the Norwegian zone of Subarea IV). The ICES landings are used in the assessment. Norway *) 1729 2486 2477 2333 1809 2339 3348 3004 2440 3040 4562 5187 5422 5370 4770 6550 6492 8343 7659 6574 6152 6104 7202 7538 6814 8019 7910 8568 9704 6737 6442 7266 7703 8177 9544 8958 8669 8685 8261 6364 4672 4801 4796 Sweden *) 2742 2906 2524 2130 2003 2003 2529 2019 1609 1787 2159 2241 1450 1136 1022 1571 1463 1322 1278 1433 1608 1908 2154 2300 2601 2882 2371 2597 2469 2445 2225 2108 2301 2389 2464 2257 2488 2445 2479 2483 1781 1768 1521 Total landings 5573 6582 6018 5218 4342 5159 7081 6143 5508 5889 8399 10021 10638 8310 7592 12619 12821 14153 12177 11249 10239 11595 13081 12753 11549 13361 14149 15074 15504 11254 11038 11328 12474 13836 15952 14207 14268 13552 13014 11071 7754 8170 7771 Estimated Swedish discards 540 337 386 504 683 Estimated Norwegian discards 93 133 246 288 Estimated Danish discards TAC Estimated catch 41 60 129 92 15000 15000 18000 16000 15000 15000 18800 18800 13000 14500 14500 14575 15300 15300 16000 16600 16600 16600 14000 11870 10135 13554 11542 8333 9049 8834 *) Swedish (all years), Norwegian (since 2000), and Danish (since 2001) landings have been corrected for loss in weight due to boiling. 8 ICES Advice 2013, Book 6 Table 6.4.23.3 Northern shrimp in Divisions IIIa West and IVa East. Bycatch in the shrimp fishery in 2012. Combined data from Danish and Swedish logbooks and Norwegian landings (tonnes). Division IIIa, no grid Species: Northern shrimp Norway lobster Anglerfish Whiting Haddock Hake Ling Saithe Witch flounder Norway pout Cod Other market fish ICES Advice 2013 Book 6 Total (t) 5481.4 41.1 80.7 7.4 109.3 21.7 45.7 474.6 72.6 2.2 401.2 174.7 % of total catch 79.3 0.6 1.2 0.1 1.6 0.3 0.7 6.9 1.1 0.0 5.8 2.5 Division IIIa, grid Total (t) 458.3 2.8 0.7 0.0 1.5 0.4 0.2 7.3 1.0 0.0 3.3 6.2 % of total catch 95.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.7 1.3 Division IVa East, no grid Total (t) 1175.4 8.7 43.6 1.3 8.2 24.0 33.5 112.6 1.5 0.0 57.4 48.5 % of total catch 77.6 0.6 2.9 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.2 7.4 0.1 0.0 3.8 3.2 9 Table 6.4.23.4 Northern shrimp in Divisions IIIa West and IVa East. Summary of the assessment. Median Biomass Biomass lower 90% Biomass lower interquartile 0.81 1.21 Relative to BMSY 1.45 Median F Biomass higher interquartile Biomass higher 90% F lower 90% F lower interquartile 1.73 2.26 0.12 0.21 Relative to FMSY 0.28 F higher interquartile F higher 90% 0.37 0.75 1970 Recruitment index Relative index n/a 1971 n/a 0.67 1.13 1.41 1.73 2.31 0.14 0.25 0.34 0.47 1.02 1972 n/a 0.57 1.09 1.39 1.72 2.32 0.13 0.23 0.31 0.44 1.02 1973 n/a 0.54 1.06 1.38 1.72 2.29 0.12 0.20 0.28 0.39 0.92 1974 n/a 0.50 1.05 1.38 1.73 2.31 0.10 0.17 0.23 0.33 0.82 1975 n/a 0.49 1.03 1.38 1.73 2.32 0.12 0.20 0.28 0.40 0.99 1976 n/a 0.46 1.00 1.35 1.69 2.29 0.16 0.28 0.39 0.57 1.38 1977 n/a 0.44 0.99 1.34 1.69 2.30 0.14 0.24 0.34 0.49 1.22 1978 n/a 0.43 0.97 1.33 1.70 2.30 0.13 0.22 0.31 0.45 1.10 1979 n/a 0.42 0.98 1.33 1.69 2.31 0.14 0.24 0.33 0.48 1.14 1980 n/a 0.42 0.95 1.29 1.64 2.27 0.20 0.35 0.49 0.70 1.61 1981 n/a 0.40 0.92 1.24 1.58 2.23 0.25 0.44 0.61 0.87 1.90 1982 n/a 0.39 0.89 1.19 1.51 2.14 0.28 0.49 0.67 0.94 2.04 1983 n/a 0.39 0.90 1.19 1.44 1.89 0.24 0.41 0.54 0.74 1.52 1984 n/a 0.44 0.99 1.32 1.59 2.10 0.20 0.33 0.45 0.61 1.23 1985 n/a 0.29 0.70 0.94 1.13 1.48 0.47 0.79 1.06 1.44 2.98 1986 n/a 0.32 0.75 0.99 1.16 1.45 0.47 0.77 1.02 1.37 2.75 1987 n/a 0.22 0.53 0.71 0.84 1.06 0.72 1.18 1.57 2.13 4.36 1988 n/a 0.25 0.59 0.79 0.92 1.15 0.56 0.93 1.22 1.65 3.35 1989 n/a 0.30 0.72 0.95 1.12 1.39 0.43 0.71 0.93 1.26 2.52 1990 n/a 0.37 0.86 1.15 1.34 1.65 0.33 0.54 0.70 0.95 1.91 1991 n/a 0.39 0.90 1.19 1.40 1.73 0.36 0.58 0.77 1.03 2.05 1992 n/a 0.36 0.84 1.11 1.31 1.61 0.43 0.70 0.93 1.26 2.51 1993 n/a 0.37 0.88 1.17 1.37 1.70 0.40 0.66 0.86 1.16 2.34 1994 n/a 0.40 0.94 1.25 1.46 1.80 0.34 0.56 0.73 0.99 2.00 1995 n/a 0.47 1.10 1.44 1.69 2.08 0.34 0.56 0.73 0.98 1.96 1996 n/a 0.56 1.28 1.70 1.99 2.38 0.32 0.50 0.65 0.89 1.76 1997 n/a 0.48 1.13 1.50 1.74 2.14 0.37 0.61 0.79 1.07 2.12 1998 n/a 0.39 0.91 1.22 1.42 1.76 0.47 0.77 1.00 1.36 2.76 1999 n/a 0.36 0.86 1.14 1.33 1.62 0.37 0.60 0.78 1.05 2.12 2000 n/a 0.41 0.95 1.26 1.46 1.79 0.33 0.53 0.69 0.93 1.87 2001 n/a 0.46 1.08 1.43 1.67 2.02 0.29 0.48 0.62 0.84 1.71 2002 n/a 0.47 1.11 1.46 1.70 2.07 0.32 0.52 0.67 0.91 1.84 2003 n/a 0.55 1.27 1.67 1.95 2.36 0.31 0.50 0.65 0.88 1.75 2004 n/a 0.45 1.07 1.41 1.65 2.00 0.43 0.68 0.89 1.20 2.42 2005 n/a 0.52 1.22 1.61 1.87 2.25 0.34 0.53 0.69 0.93 1.91 2006 1800 0.64 1.47 1.93 2.21 2.47 0.29 0.46 0.59 0.78 1.55 2007 1759 0.49 1.15 1.53 1.78 2.16 0.33 0.54 0.70 0.94 1.90 2008 675 0.38 0.88 1.16 1.36 1.66 0.43 0.70 0.92 1.24 2.49 2009 398 0.28 0.66 0.88 1.03 1.26 0.48 0.79 1.04 1.40 2.83 2010 168 0.26 0.63 0.83 0.97 1.19 0.37 0.61 0.79 1.07 2.16 2011 330 0.22 0.52 0.70 0.83 1.02 0.47 0.77 1.02 1.39 2.83 2012 830 0.24 0.56 0.75 0.89 1.10 0.42 0.70 0.93 1.26 2.56 2013 647 0.21 0.54 0.76 1.00 1.51 0.35 0.66 0.95 1.42 3.40 10 ICES Advice 2013, Book 6