Bridging the Gap:
Getting from Climate Projections to Decisions,
A Marin County Case Study
Red-Legged Frogs. John Sullivan/Ribbit Photography
NBWA
April 1, 2011
Sara S. Moore, Zavaleta Lab, UC Santa Cruz
Bridging the Gap: Getting from climate projections to decisions, a Marin County Case Study
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Background on adaptation
The California study
The Marin County case study
Conclusion
“Adaptation” consists of...
• Actions to realize gains from opportunities
or to reduce the damages that result from
climate change.
p. 11, Agrawala, S. & S. Fankhauser (Eds.) (2008). Economic Aspects of
Adaptation to Climate Change: Costs, Benefits and Policy Instruments. Office
of the Secretary-General of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD).
How is adaptation related to mitigation?
• Mitigation is driving a Prius.
• Adaptation is driving your Prius to higher
ground.
The Building Blocks of Climate Adaptation
1. Emergency Services
2. Safety Measures / Disaster Prevention
3. Protecting human systems
Fire, flood, heat, storms
4. Protecting natural systems
5. Protecting clean air and water
supply (forests, rivers, groundwater)
6. Mitigation of GHGs
Impact planning
horizon
(near to long term)
https://gnocdc.s3.amazonaws.com/maps/PDFs/vehicle_access.pd
f
You might need a car to get to safety
Promoting healthy
forests and urban
green spaces
reduces both
GHGs
and
the impacts of
climate change
http://www.seedsdream.org/Volunteering.html
“Co-benefits”
“No Regrets” Adaptation Approach
• Has benefits even in the absence of climate
change.
• Popular (cheap, OK for skeptics).
• It looks a lot like business as usual.
“Mainstreaming” Adaptation Approach
• Climate change impacts considered within
existing plans.
• Theoretically the best way to prepare.
• Tends to produce “no regrets” actions.
• It looks a lot like business as usual.
“Ecosystem-Based” Adaptation
• Using natural systems as a basis for
adaptation strategies.
– Popular among resource mgrs.
– Most natural– effective? Cost-effective?
– More flexible than infrastructure
– Example: wetlands v. sea wall.
• Needs more research to sell it to
politicians.
“Top Down” v. “Bottom Up” Approaches
• Describes where direction for action
originates.
Funding,
Guidance,
Coordination
Pilot project feedback,
Critical variables for decisions,
Knowledge of local history of
change
What makes adaptation choices hard?
•Uncertainty
•Costs
•Perception of “giving up”
What is the state’s responsibility to the people of Pacifica?
http://assets.knowledge.allianz.com/img/natural_disasters_dangerous_building_erod
ing_cliffs_landslide_q_16958.jpg
What do you do when people won’t move?
Bridging the Gap: Getting from climate projections to decisions, a Marin County Case Study
•
•
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•
Background on adaptation
The California study
The Marin County case study
Conclusion
Global Vulnerability Map
Global Climate-Demography Vulnerability Index (CDVI):
Red = really bad
Samson, et al. (2011) “Geographic disparities and moral hazards in the predicted impacts of climate change on human
populations,” Global Ecology and Biogeography.
California’s Climate Vulnerability
http://conserveonline.org/workspaces/CA.climate.change/documents/california-climate-stress-reports/view.html
- posted by Kirk Klausmeyer, TNC, 2009
http://www.popstarsplus.com/politicians_arnoldschwarzenegger.htm
“Climate Vulnerability and Adaptation Study
for California”
How can we bridge the
data-decision gap
for resource managers?
• Public natural resource
management context
• California case study
• Using scenario planning
(workshop, technical memo)
• To support decision-making
around the state
Bridging the Gap: Getting from climate projections to decisions, a Marin County Case Study
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Background on adaptation
The California study
The Marin County case study
Conclusion
Case Study “Futures of Wild Marin”
West Marin Protected Areas:
Bolinas Lagoon, Muir Woods NM (GGNRA), Point Reyes NS,
Marin Municipal Water District, Samuel P. Taylor and Mt. Tam SPs
Collaborators, Informers
• Erika Zavaleta, UCSC
• Rebecca Shaw, TNC / EDF
• NPS facilitators from the Global Business
Network
• Reps from 15 agencies invited to one day
workshop on Jan. 28, 2011
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Audubon Canyon Ranch
Bolinas Community Public Utility District - BCPUD
California Dept of Fish and Game
California State Parks - Marin District
Department of Water Resources - North Central
Region Office
Marin Agricultural Land Trust - MALT
Marin County Fire Department
Marin County Parks and Open Space
Marin County Planning Department
Marin Municipal Water District - MMWD
Marin Resource Conservation District
NPS / GGNRA
Pepperwood Preserve
Point Reyes Bird Observatory - PRBO
Point Reyes NS
http://img.geocaching.com/cache/83860819-e06c-44ff-be04-c68eaabcc438.jpg
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Decision-making under climate uncertainty
• “Ensemble”
– Majority of available studies agree it will be
warmer, drier, etc.
• Scenario planning
– Inevitabilities + uncertainties
– Factors that put you in a new decision-making
environment
What are scenarios?
Narratives outside the norm
Multiple, plausible futures
Not predictions: no probabilities attached
Navigation tool to get past paralysis
Pros and Cons of Scenarios
Pro
• Interactions, extremes, secondary impacts
• Ideas, experience, management priorities
drive the process (informed by science)
• Action-oriented
• Encourages broad, collaborative thinking
• Gets past paralysis from not having all facts
Con
• Plausible futures = no more probable than
climate model output
Project Design
1.Select case study site
2. Create scenario
development team
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August 2010: 13 sites considered
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Criteria for selection:
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High feasibility
Has good climate data
"Significant" to state
Human & natural systems interact
Land use types mixed
Land management jurisdictions mixed
3. Develop scenarios
– 100% within state (this excluded
Lake Tahoe)
– Minimally 1 sq. mile (not too small)
– Mainly terrestrial
– Includes State Parks
Project Design
1.Select case study site
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2. Create scenario
development team
3. Develop scenarios
October 2010: Team of 10 selected based on these criteria:
– Work or worked in the case study site
– Involved in long-term planning within their agency or organization
– Consume or produce climate change data for decision-making
– Available for 3 one hour phone calls in Nov., Dec., and Jan. + workshop
Project Design
1.Select case study site
2. Create scenario
development team
3. Develop scenarios
Top Drivers of Change
1. Air temperature up.
2. Sea level up.
3. Seasonal extremes more
prevalent.
4. Reduced biodiversity.
Earlier
More Easterly
Same or lesser
1. Onset of Dry Season
2. Direction of Strong Wind
3. Capacity to Respond
Later
More Northerly
Significantly
greater
Degree of
Strong Wind
Two Climatic Variables
Societal Concern
Direction of
Nature
Leadership
Onset
ofofDry
Season
The Climatic Scenarios
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Nature
Leadership
Onset
ofofDry
Season
Cool Air, Dry Soil
Landscapes less productive
Disease and invasives
curtailed
Societal Concern
Earlier Dry
Season
Degree of
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Warm Air, Dry Soil
Loss of life due to wildfire
Flood control deprioritized
Water supply critically low
Direction of
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Strong Wind
More Easterly Wind
More Northerly Wind
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Warm Air, Wet Soil
New invasives become
dominant, new diseases
Erosion and flooding plus
plant disease devastate
farmers
Later Dry
Season
Cool Air, Wet Soil
Redwood population
maintains well in refugia
Erosion and flooding destroy
coastal infrastructure
“Fryin’ and Cryin’”
• Defined by:
– Earlier dry season,
– Stronger easterlies,
– Same/ less capacity
• Headlines/ Events:
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Big forest die-off on Mount Tam
Lost wetlands, vernal pools
State Parks lose funding
Big fires we can’t fight
ESA suspended, Coho locally extirpated
• Top Actions:
– Institutional coordination
– Mandatory water rationing
– Communication campaign/ volunteer science
Common Definition of Adaptation
by scenario development team
Climate change
1. Maintain key ecosystem
adaptation should:
functions (to provide the
2.
3.
benefits of nature to human
populations);
Facilitate a gentler transition
under climate change, based
on natural systems;
Maintain bioregional native
biodiversity.
After Brainstorming Actions by Scenario:
Criteria for Prioritization
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Flexible/ robust to multiple scenarios
Collaborative/ doesn’t duplicate efforts
Uses adaptive management: uses
monitoring, correct scale of design, best
science, pilot programs, etc.
Cost-effective/ sustainable
Has clarity of design and transparency of
implementation process
Sample Priorities for Action
Create a regional and collaborative approach
to adaptation.
Create a Ready-to-go Rapid Response Team
– climate events, invasives, etc.
Concrete Next Steps
• Inter-agency Statement of Agreement on
climate change adaptation for Marin
County.
• Downscaled climate vulnerability
analysis for Marin County.
• Integrate into state efforts.
http://k41.pbase.com/g4/50/673150/2/61465176.DSC02201.jpg
One Small Decision
Bridging the Gap: Getting from climate projections to decisions, a Marin County Case Study
•
•
•
•
Background on adaptation
The California study
The Marin County case study
Conclusion
Lessons Learned
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Keep it mixed: orgs, agencies
Make geography smaller for specificity
Attach to existing planning effort
Science team: response to top variables
before workshop
• Webinar: impacts/ adaptation 101
• 2 days: (1) “certainties,” (2) “uncertainties”
and scenarios
• All participants select final variables
Possible Next Site
• Smaller scale within Marin County:
Bolinas/ Stinson Beach
(part of Our Coast- Our Future effort)
– Resource managers, public utilities
– DPW
– Office of Emergency Services
Thank you! Questions?
Red-Legged Frogs. John Sullivan/Ribbit Photography
Sara S. Moore - sasmoore@ucsc.edu
Erika Zavaleta - zavaleta@ucsc.edu
UC Santa Cruz/ Zavaleta Lab
Environmental Studies Department
University of California