CGE TRAINING MATERIALSVULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION (V&A) ASSESSMENT Chapter 2 Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks PART 1: Introduction, Planning and Adaptation Frameworks Objectives and Expectations • Having read this presentation in conjunction with the related handbook, the reader should: a) Recognize the rationale for the need for vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments b) Be familiar with key terms, concepts and purposes of V&A assessments c) Identify the various options that can be taken into consideration when undertaking a V&A assessment d) Be able to use Planning and Adaptation Frameworks suited to respective national circumstances. 3 Some Introductory Remarks Update of the Training Materials • The previous version (2005) is outdated and the updated version reflects the following: a) Important findings from IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (2007) b) Significant update of methods, tools and data requirements for V&A assessment c) Experience from Parties in undertaking national communications • The existing structure of the previous training material was maintained, to ensure continuity and consistency. Update of the Training Materials: A Template Approach Handbook Structure Chapter 1 Introduction Chapter 2 Planning, Including Selecting Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks Chapter 3 Baseline Socio-economic Scenarios Chapter 4 Climate Change Scenarios Chapter 5 Coastal Resources Chapter 6 Water Resources Chapter 7 Agriculture Chapter 8 Human Health Chapter 9 Integration, Mainstreaming, Monitoring and Evaluation Chapter 10 Communication of V&A Analysis in National Communications Chapter 11 Bibliography Important Sources of Related Information • UNFCCC (2008) Resource guide for preparing the national communications of non-Annex I Parties (Modules 1-4) <http://unfccc.int/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/item s/2625.php> • UNFCCC (2008) Compendium of methods and tools to evaluation impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change”: <http://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/methodologies_for/vulnerability_ and_adaptation/application/pdf/consolidated_version_updated_021204.pdf> • UNDP-NCSP(2006) National Communications Support Programme Resource Kit. http://ncsp.undp.org/sites/default/files/NatCom%20Process.pdf • PROVIA Guidance on Assessing Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change, 2012 draft, http://bit.ly/provia_act4 “To a Hammer, Everything Looks Like a Nail” • Methods or models do not provide answers, but can help us gain insights • The first step is to consider the question(s) being asked. Some Questions to Begin a V&A Assessment • What is of concern? a) Food production, water supply, health? b) Concerns may not be expressed in climate terms, e.g. extreme temperatures, but in terms of consequences of climate change for people. • Who may be affected? • How far into the future is of concern? Note: concerns may focus on current risks (which could be made worse by climate change). Some Questions to Begin a V&A Assessment • For what purpose is the assessment to be used? a) Raising awareness (education)? b) Policy making (e.g. to inform a particular decision). • What kind of output is needed? Additional Questions Before Starting the V&A Assessment • What resources are available to conduct the study? a) Money b) Staff c) Expertise d) Data e) Regional linkages f) Relationships with donors and development partners. • How much time is available? Key Factors in Determining How to Conduct Your Study • You should not begin with the methods or models you have in hand, but with “the previous questions. • Select methods and models that best help you answer the questions. Different Questions May Lead to Different Approaches • Questions about how climate change may affect resources may lead to analysis of long-term impacts (e.g. out to 2100). • Questions about adaptation may lead to analysis of vulnerability within a planning horizon (e.g. 5 to 50 years) Who is Asking the Question(s) May Determine How the Work is Done • Some may be content with research that is conducted by the researchers • Others may wish for a hands-on approach: e.g. Involve stakeholders in conducting the analysis and also shaping outputs by helping with sectoral and geographic prioritization. Bottom Line: 1. What information is needed? 2. When is the information needed? 3. Who needs the information? Impacts of Climate Change • Impact is typically the effect of climate change: a) For biological systems, it can be change in productivity, quality, population, or range b) For societal systems, it can be a change in income, morbidity, mortality, or other measure of well-being. Adaptation • Adaptation refers to initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems, against actual or expected climate change effects. • Various types of adaptation exist, e.g. anticipatory and reactive, and autonomous and planned. • Examples include: raising river or coastal dikes, the substitution of more temperature-shock resistant plants for sensitive ones, etc. (IPCC, 2007) • This may not include “actual” (realized) or “expected” (future) changes in climate . Adaptation (continued) • Two types of adaptation: a) Autonomous adaptation ( or reactive adaptation) tends to be what people and systems do as impacts of climate change become apparent b) Anticipatory (or proactive or planned) adaptation are measures taken to reduce potential risks of future climate change. Adaptation Learning Cycle Four broad iterative tasks of an adaptation learning cycle: Assessing climate change vulnerability and impacts Monitoring and evaluating adaptation action and learning Appraising adaptation and selection adaptation options Implementation adaptation options Decision Trees: support the identification of critical tasks and methods PROVIA (2012) Empirically Based Methods Empirically based methods refer to the gathering of observable data to formulate and test a hypothesis and come to a conclusion. These methods often require the commitment of substantial resources. Theory-driven Approach • A theory-driven approach, makes use of existing theoretical insights into the nature and causes of vulnerability to select variables for inclusion, although in practice this necessarily occurs within the limits placed by data availability. • This inevitably leads to subjectivity in the choice of indicators, but that can be addressed by ensuring all decisions are grounded in the existing literature and made fully transparent. Characteristics of the Climate Hazards Characteristic Description Value Indication on critical tasks and appropriate methods Type Are risks due to current climate vulnerability? Yes/no (i.e. extreme event, slow-onset) If extreme events are considered, decisions may take into account current climate Observed trend Has a past trend been observed? Unknown, not knowable, clear direction, no direction If a past trend has been observed, then it is easier to motivate the affected actors to adapt. If the trend is unknown, collecting data is indicated Future impacts Given a scenario, can I compute impacts (or outcomes) Yes/no If future impacts (or outcomes) can be computed, decision-making methods on future outcomes are appropriate. Climate change is the dominant risk factor Climate change is considered to be a major driver only if it is important relative to the other drivers involved Yes/no If climate change is not the major driver, analysing climate change impacts is not a priority, focus on the other drivers or on factors that are internal to the AS. Characteristics of the Affected Actors Characteristic Description Value Indication on critical tasks and appropriate methods Heterogeneity Degree difference in socioeconomic characteristics between relevant actors High/low If degree of difference is high, options which require collective action may be difficult Group size Size of group affected by impacts and taking adaptive action Small/large If group size is small, collective action options may be more easily taken Damaged experienced Have actors suffered damage due to extreme weather events Yes/no If yes, it is necessary to focus on current risks Awareness of current risks Actors perception of risks from current vulnerability and extremes High/low If low, risk communication and awareness raising are indicated Potential capacity Actors ability to take adaptation action, includes financial, human, and social capital High/low If low, incentives may be considered to influence adaptation Actual capacity Actors actual capacity to act in situation, given possible cognitive and institutional barriers High/low If actors have low actual capacity, institutional or behavioural analysis to identify cognitive and institutional barriers to action are indicated Characteristics of the Adaptation Options Characteristic Description Value Indication on critical tasks and appropriate methods Relative costs Investment costs relative to actors annual income and capital stock. High/low If the costs are high, the ability to experiment and learn (through ex-post evaluation) may be reduced Investment horizon Time interval over which outcomes attributes can be attributed to an option and must be considered. Short/long If the horizon is long, then it is desirable to assess impacts, or include impacts in decision -making Flexibility Degree to which option can be adjusted, or changed. Institutional options tend to be more flexible than physical options Yes/no If option can be adjusted easily, then adaptive management may be appropriate Conflict Degree to which individual preferences and social welfare are in conflict High/low If conflict is high, then institutional analysis may be necessary Complexity Number and degree of interdependency of variables that determine outcomes High/low If the complexity is high, it is necessary to conduct detailed case studies and/or build models in order to understand and predict action-outcome linkages. If low, decisions can be made without expert knowledge Identifying Tasks Based on Adaptation The looped circles indicate that once a task has been identified and a method applied, the process should be repeated, based on the new adaptation situation to identify the next task. PROVIA (2012) Impact and Capacity Analysis Impact analysis Analyse future impacts or current state? Private sector National prioritizing Resource constraints Time constraints Lack of data Large uncertainties Participatory setting Capacity analysis The focus on impact analysis or capacity analysis, is often not determined by clear-cut criteria: • Impact analysis may be more appropriate to identify priorities for national or regional adaptation interventions or deeper analysis • Capacity analysis may be more appropriate to identifying and designing actions at local levels. PROVIA (2012) High-order Decision Tree for Capacity Analysis Private Capacity of whom? Organizational selfassessment Public Purpose of the analysis? Quick high-level screening in order to prioritize further analysis Identification of public adaptation options Adaptive capacity indication Public capacity analysis PROVIA (2012) Analysing Impacts • Analysing observed or expected impacts of climate change (with and without adaptation). Tasks and methods associated with this sub-task will be called impact-analytical approaches. • Analysing the capacity to prevent, moderate or adapt to these impacts requires a diverse range of approaches including indicators, behaviour-analytical and institution-analytical approaches Impact-analytical Methods Decision Tree to Identify Impact Analytical Tasks and Methods PROVIA (2012) Impact-analytical Methods Method Type Subtype Impact Projection Task Project future impacts of climate change Residual Impact Projection (RIP) Potential Impact Projection (PIP) Characteristics Interaction between the drivers and the study unit can be formally represented as a computational model. of Adaptation Given a scenario , impacts can be computed Strategies (AS) Theoretical assumptions People affected do not adapt. People affected adapt Adaptation can be formally represented by a computational model Steps taken 1. Selection of climate and socio-economic scenarios 2. Computation of the potential impacts of those scenarios 3. Evaluation of impacts using impact indicators 1. Selection of climate and socio-economic scenarios 2. Selection of adaptation options and strategies 3. Computation of the impacts of the scenarios and the adaptation strategies 4. Evaluation of impacts using impact indicators Results achieved A list of propositions that map each scenario to an impact. Each proposition is interpreted in the following way: “When the world evolves according to scenario e and people don't adapt, the impact on will be i” A list of propositions that map each scenario to a residual impact. Each proposition is interpreted: "When the world evolves according to scenario e and one adapts according to strategy a, the impact on the vulnerable system will be i" Impact-analytical Methods (continued) Method Type Subtype Impact Projection Residual Impact Projection (RIP) Example Cases Dasgupta et al. (2007) address the question of what are the impacts of sea-level rise on developing countries. Impacts are projected for sea-level rise scenarios of 1 to 5 meter by overlaying data on land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands and gross domestic product (GDP) with the inundation zones of the sea-level rise scenarios. They found that tens of millions of people will be displaced and economic damages will be severe but limited to a couple of countries Issues involved Rarely understood that potential impacts will How to model adaptation? Model of adaptation (e.g. dumb, almost certainly not occur because adaptation typical, smart and clairvoyant farmer) used has a significant will take place. For example, people living in indication on the results produced the coastal zone are likely to move away before experiencing permanent flooding Potential Impact Projection (PIP) Hinkel et al. (2010) address the question of what will be both the potential and the residual impacts of sea-level rise on coastal countries of the EU27. The authors use the DIVA model to project the impacts of various sea-level rise and socio-economic scenarios on the countries first without any adaptation (potential impacts) and then with an adaptation strategy (residual impacts) that raises dikes to protect against coastal flooding and nourishes beach to protect against coastal erosion. It is found that, while the potential impacts are substantial, adaptation reduces these impacts significantly by one or two orders of magnitude Decision-tree: Choosing Tasks Relevant to Analysing Capacity Decision-tree for choosing tasks relevant to analysing capacity from a public perspective in order to identify options PROVIA (2012) Entry Point: Public Adaptation Problem in Which the Analyst Must Consider the Critical Tasks for Influence the Adaptation of Other (Private) Actors InterPotential dependenc capacity e of private actors Actual capacity of private actors Example Indication on the next task to carry out No High Low Public actor wanting to influence elderly people living in isolated areas, often alone threatened by heat waves Behaviour analysis addressing the question: How the capacity of the vulnerable actors to address the risk could be increased. As the actual capacity of the vulnerable actors is low, awareness raising or behaviour and institutional analysis are indicated No High High Public actor wanting to influence Tuscan wine farmers threatened by gradual change in mean temperature As the vulnerable actors have Farmers using a shared and already scarce groundwater resource that is declining under climate change Public actor wanting to influence farmers so that they keep migration corridors open in order to allow species to migrate and thus maintain biodiversity Institutional analysis addressing the question what kind of institutional arrangements may resolve conflict Yes Low Low Yes High Low capacity to address risks but are not aware of it, the next task would be risk communication or awareness raising (risk communication, training, TV ads) Appraising economic incentives. As actors may not have capacity to address the potential loss of biodiversity on their own due to lack of financial incentive to do so, addressing the problem may be a question of designing appropriate economic incentives e.g. through agri-environmental schemes Decision Tree Institution-analytical Tasks PROVIA (2012) Decision-tree for Choosing the General Approach to Decision-making PROVIA (2012) Empirical Methods Empirically based methods refer to the gathering of observable data to formulate and test a hypothesis and come to a conclusion(s). These methods require often substantial resources to be committed. Methods for Selecting an Option From a Set • Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) • Cost-effective analysis (CEA) • Multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The criteria for selecting between CBA, CEA and MCA are based on which outcome attributes are of interest to the decision maker. If all attributes can be assigned one common attribute of money, then CBA is appropriate. If only one of the attributes cannot be assigned as a money attribute, then CEA is appropriate. When two or more attributes cannot be assigned a common monetary attribute (and also cannot be expressed in one common attribute) MCA is appropriate. Selecting an Appropriate Decision-making Method Based on Characteristics of the Adaptation Situation Are there risks due to current climate variability? Does the set of options include only short-term/ flexible options? Given a Relative scenario, can costs of I compute options the outcome of a given option? Example Next task indicated. Yes Yes n/r High Agriculture threatened by drought, options = (several drought-resistant crops) CBA, MCA Yes No Yes High Forestry threatened by forest fires, Robust decision-making options = (emergency response options; on current and futures planting different tree species ) outcomes Coasts threatened by floods. options = (protect, retreat, spread risk) No No Yes Biodiversity is threatened as species habitats shifts decrease in area, and may not permit migration due to lack of corridors. options = (maintain habitat corridors, agri-environmental schemes, national park) Robust decision-making on future options Selecting an Appropriate Decision-making Method Based on Characteristics of the Adaptation Situation (continued) Are there risks due to current climate variability? Does the set of options include only short-term/ flexible options? Given a Relative scenario, can costs of I compute options the outcome of a given option? Example Next task indicated. No No Yes High Agriculture threatened by drought, Options = (improving irrigation) Ski lift operators threatened by decreasing snow fall. options = (summer tourism, artificial snow-making, give up) Robust decision-making on current and future outcomes No n/r No Not known Extreme event risk in central Europe As the direction of the trend in risks is not clear, adaptation action is not required PART 2: Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks Overview of Frameworks • Description of some vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) frameworks • One size does not fit all • Select a framework or method that best suits: a) The questions being asked b) Who is asking them c) What kind of answers are needed d) What resources, time data and technical support are available e) Have you used one before. “Start with the end in mind” Two Types of Frameworks • Impacts: a) Also known as “first generation” or “top down” • Adaptation: a) Also known as “second generation” or “bottom up”. The Top-down Approach versus the Bottom-up Approach Impacts Frameworks • These frameworks are driven by the need to understand long-term consequences: a) Tend to look out many decades (to 2100 or beyond) b) Tend to be scenario driven Adaptation Frameworks • These frameworks are driven by the following: • The need to supply useful information to stakeholders: a) They tend to address near-term concerns b) Often address climate variability and change c) Emphasis is on the socio-economic context • Stakeholder identification of issues and involvement in process: a) Bring in analysis as necessary and appropriate b) Can use consultative/consensus-building techniques. Adaptation Continuum (Source: McGray et al., (2007) in Klein and Persson, 2008) Adaptation Continuum (Source: McGray et al., 2007) Adaptation Dimensions Impacts Frameworks • IPCC Seven Steps (1994) • UNEP Handbook (1998) • U.S. Country Studies Program (1993 -1999) Basic Structure for Impacts Frameworks • • • Baseline Scenarios Population • Institutions GNP • Environment Technology Climate change scenarios Biophysical impacts Socioeconomic impacts Autonomous adaptation Integration Vulnerability Purposeful adaptations IPCC Seven Steps 1. Define the problem 2. Select the method 3. Test the method 4. Select scenarios 5. Assess biophysical and socio-economic impacts 6. Assess autonomous adjustments 7. Evaluate adaptation strategies. U.S. Country Studies Program • Provided detailed guidance on specific methods: a) Coastal resources b) Agriculture c) Livestock d) Water resources e) Vegetation f) Human health g) Wildlife h) Fisheries i) Adaptation • Publications. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Handbook • Presents overviews of methods: a) It is a source for information on different methods b) Does not provide detailed guidance. • Topics include: a) Climate change scenarios b) Socio-economic scenarios. UNEP Handbook (continued) • Integration • Adaptation • Water resources • Coastal zones • Agriculture • Rangeland and livestock • Human health • Energy • Forests • Biodiversity • Fisheries Second Generation Adaptation Frameworks • United nations Development Programme (UNDP): a) Adaptation Policy Framework (2005) b) Toolkit for Designing Climate Change Adaptation Initiatives (2010) • National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) Guidance • USAID Adapting to Climate Variability and Change (2007) • Community Vulnerability Frameworks. UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (2005) Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity Engaging stakeholders APF COMPONENTS Continuing the adaptation process Formulating an adaptation strategy Assessing future climate risks Assessing current vulnerability Scoping and designing an adaptation process UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (continued) • Contains technical papers on the following: a) Scoping and designing an adaptation project b) Engaging stakeholders in the adaptation process c) Assessing vulnerability for climate adaptation d) Assessing current climate risks e) Assessing future climate risks f) Assessing current and changing socio-economic conditions g) Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity h) Formulating an adaptation strategy i) Continuing the adaptation process. UNDP Adaptation Toolkit (2010) NAPA Guidance • National Adaptation Programmes of Action • Least developed countries (LDCs) identify and rank proposed measures to adapt to climate change • Decision 28/CP.7 NAPA Process NAPA Guidance (continued) • The guidance document provides the framework for developing NAPAs • It discusses the following: a) Objectives and characteristics of NAPA’s guiding elements b) Process c) Structure. NAPA Guidance (continued) • Outcome of COP17 Durban • This guidance document, is not designed to replace NAPAs • It is designed to allow all developing countries (not just LDCs as per NAPAs) to plan and implement medium-to long-term adaptation initiatives • Support for the NAP process will be provided through a Global Support Programme (GSP) for implementation in the second half of 2012. Differences Between the NAPA and NAP process (Source: Draft NAP Global Support Programme (GSP), submission to the GEF 2012) USAID Framework USAID Framework Risk-Based Frameworks • Risk is defined as: The chance of something happening that will have an impact on objectives • So risk is positive and negative • And….must be a risk to something (a management objective). Risk-Based Frameworks (Source: AdaptiveFutures, 2011) Risk-Based Frameworks (Source: Australian Government, 2006) Four NGO Local and Community Frameworks Name Developer Target Audience Key inputs Key Outputs CEDRA Tearfund Development field practitioner with senior management support Guidance and checklist for 6 steps to identify and prioritise hazards and adaptation options Identifies risks and risk management of programme, including changes to portfolio of projects CVCA CARE Project managers, field staff, local partners and communities Framework with supporting questions and exercises: participatory community level analysis combines local knowledge with climate science. Assessment informs programming and provides evidence base for advocacy CRiSTAL IISD, IUCN, SEI, IC Community-level project planners and managers Two module analytical framework for linking local livelihoods and climate. MS Excel interface for entering information and compiling report. Typically 1-5 days. Results serve as a basis for designing or adjusting projects for adaptation Adaptation Toolkit Christian Aid Country Programme and partner staff No set steps. Three toolkits for understanding livelihoods adaptation (PVCA), community climate analysis and strategy development Analysis informs livelihood programming and cc strategy development Selecting a Framework • We are not recommending use of a particular framework: a) Different frameworks are appropriate for different needs • What is needed in the long run is the integration of climate change predictions and adaptation with a baseline of vulnerability. Selecting a Framework: Guiding Questions • What is of concern – food production, water supply, health, ecosystem loss? a) (Concerns may be expressed not in climate terms (e.g. extreme temperature) but in consequences of climate impacts for people (e.g. drought, flood, malnutrition) • Are there places (areas) that may be particularly vulnerable that may need specific risk assessments? • Who may be affected – where are they and what groups in society? • How far into the future is the concern? • For what purpose is the assessment to be used – raising awareness (education), policymaking? • What kind of output is needed? Application of Frameworks • Projects often take longer and cost more than originally thought (or proposed) • Be careful about complex frameworks • You may only get through the first few steps before running out of time or funds • Think about how a sectoral project will be run to promote consistency • Think about integrating sectoral assessments at the end. Key Factors in Determining How to Conduct Your Study • You should not begin with the methods or models you have in hand, but with the important questions • Select methods and models that best help you answer the questions.