CGE TRAINING MATERIALSVULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION
(V&A) ASSESSMENT
Chapter 2
Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
PART 1:
Introduction, Planning and Adaptation
Frameworks
Objectives and Expectations
• Having read this presentation in conjunction with
the related handbook, the reader should:
a) Recognize the rationale for the need for
vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments
b) Be familiar with key terms, concepts and
purposes of V&A assessments
c) Identify the various options that can be taken into
consideration when undertaking a V&A
assessment
d) Be able to use Planning and Adaptation
Frameworks suited to respective national
circumstances.
3
Some Introductory Remarks
Update of the Training Materials
• The previous version (2005) is outdated and the
updated version reflects the following:
a) Important findings from IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report (AR4) (2007)
b) Significant update of methods, tools and data
requirements for V&A assessment
c) Experience from Parties in undertaking national
communications
• The existing structure of the previous training material
was maintained, to ensure continuity and consistency.
Update of the Training Materials: A Template Approach
Handbook Structure
Chapter 1
Introduction
Chapter 2
Planning, Including Selecting Vulnerability and Adaptation
Frameworks
Chapter 3
Baseline Socio-economic Scenarios
Chapter 4
Climate Change Scenarios
Chapter 5
Coastal Resources
Chapter 6
Water Resources
Chapter 7
Agriculture
Chapter 8
Human Health
Chapter 9
Integration, Mainstreaming, Monitoring and Evaluation
Chapter 10
Communication of V&A Analysis in National
Communications
Chapter 11
Bibliography
Important Sources of Related Information
• UNFCCC (2008) Resource guide for preparing the national communications of
non-Annex I Parties (Modules 1-4)
<http://unfccc.int/essential_background/background_publications_htmlpdf/item
s/2625.php>
• UNFCCC (2008) Compendium of methods and tools to evaluation impacts of,
and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change”:
<http://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/methodologies_for/vulnerability_
and_adaptation/application/pdf/consolidated_version_updated_021204.pdf>
• UNDP-NCSP(2006) National Communications Support Programme Resource
Kit.
http://ncsp.undp.org/sites/default/files/NatCom%20Process.pdf
• PROVIA Guidance on Assessing Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation to
Climate Change, 2012 draft, http://bit.ly/provia_act4
“To a Hammer, Everything Looks Like a Nail”
• Methods or models do not provide answers,
but can help us gain insights
• The first step is to consider the question(s)
being asked.
Some Questions to Begin a V&A Assessment
• What is of concern?
a) Food production, water supply, health?
b) Concerns may not be expressed in climate terms,
e.g. extreme temperatures, but in terms of
consequences of climate change for people.
• Who may be affected?
• How far into the future is of concern?
Note: concerns may focus on current risks (which could
be made worse by climate change).
Some Questions to Begin a V&A Assessment
• For what purpose is the assessment to be used?
a) Raising awareness (education)?
b) Policy making (e.g. to inform a particular decision).
• What kind of output is needed?
Additional Questions Before Starting the V&A Assessment
• What resources are available to conduct
the study?
a) Money
b) Staff
c) Expertise
d) Data
e) Regional linkages
f) Relationships with donors and development partners.
• How much time is available?
Key Factors in Determining How to Conduct Your Study
• You should not begin with the methods or models you
have in hand, but with “the previous questions.
• Select methods and models that best help you answer
the questions.
Different Questions May Lead to Different Approaches
• Questions about how climate change may affect
resources may lead to analysis of long-term impacts
(e.g. out to 2100).
• Questions about adaptation may lead to analysis of
vulnerability within a planning horizon (e.g. 5 to 50 years)
Who is Asking the Question(s) May Determine How the Work is Done
• Some may be content with research that is conducted
by the researchers
• Others may wish for a hands-on approach:
e.g. Involve stakeholders in conducting the analysis and
also shaping outputs by helping with sectoral and
geographic prioritization.
Bottom Line:
1. What information is needed?
2. When is the information needed?
3. Who needs the information?
Impacts of Climate Change
• Impact is typically the effect of climate change:
a) For biological systems, it can be change in
productivity, quality, population, or range
b) For societal systems, it can be a change in income,
morbidity, mortality, or other measure of well-being.
Adaptation
• Adaptation refers to initiatives and measures to reduce
the vulnerability of natural and human systems, against
actual or expected climate change effects.
• Various types of adaptation exist, e.g. anticipatory and
reactive, and autonomous and planned.
• Examples include: raising river or coastal dikes, the
substitution of more temperature-shock resistant plants
for sensitive ones, etc. (IPCC, 2007)
• This may not include “actual” (realized) or “expected”
(future) changes in climate .
Adaptation (continued)
• Two types of adaptation:
a) Autonomous adaptation ( or reactive adaptation)
tends to be what people and systems do as impacts
of climate change become apparent
b) Anticipatory (or proactive or planned) adaptation are
measures taken to reduce potential risks of future
climate change.
Adaptation Learning Cycle
Four broad iterative tasks of an adaptation learning cycle:
Assessing
climate change
vulnerability and
impacts
Monitoring and
evaluating
adaptation
action and
learning
Appraising
adaptation and
selection
adaptation
options
Implementation
adaptation
options
Decision Trees: support the identification of critical tasks and methods
PROVIA (2012)
Empirically Based Methods
Empirically based methods refer to the gathering of
observable data to formulate and test a hypothesis and
come to a conclusion. These methods often require the
commitment of substantial resources.
Theory-driven Approach
• A theory-driven approach, makes use of existing
theoretical insights into the nature and causes of
vulnerability to select variables for inclusion, although
in practice this necessarily occurs within the limits
placed by data availability.
• This inevitably leads to subjectivity in the choice of
indicators, but that can be addressed by ensuring all
decisions are grounded in the existing literature and
made fully transparent.
Characteristics of the Climate Hazards
Characteristic
Description
Value
Indication on critical tasks and
appropriate methods
Type
Are risks due to
current climate
vulnerability?
Yes/no
(i.e. extreme event,
slow-onset)
If extreme events are considered,
decisions may take into account
current climate
Observed trend
Has a past trend
been observed?
Unknown, not
knowable, clear
direction, no
direction
If a past trend has been observed,
then it is easier to motivate the
affected actors to adapt.
If the trend is unknown, collecting data
is indicated
Future impacts
Given a scenario,
can I compute
impacts (or
outcomes)
Yes/no
If future impacts (or outcomes) can be
computed, decision-making methods
on future outcomes are appropriate.
Climate change
is the dominant
risk factor
Climate change is
considered to be a
major driver only if
it is important
relative to the other
drivers involved
Yes/no
If climate change is not the major
driver, analysing climate change
impacts is not a priority, focus on the
other drivers or on factors that are
internal to the AS.
Characteristics of the Affected Actors
Characteristic
Description
Value
Indication on critical tasks and
appropriate methods
Heterogeneity
Degree difference in socioeconomic characteristics
between relevant actors
High/low
If degree of difference is high, options which
require collective action may be difficult
Group size
Size of group affected by
impacts and taking adaptive
action
Small/large
If group size is small, collective action
options may be more easily taken
Damaged
experienced
Have actors suffered damage
due to extreme weather
events
Yes/no
If yes, it is necessary to focus on current
risks
Awareness of
current risks
Actors perception of risks
from current vulnerability and
extremes
High/low
If low, risk communication and awareness
raising are indicated
Potential
capacity
Actors ability to take
adaptation action, includes
financial, human, and social
capital
High/low
If low, incentives may be considered to
influence adaptation
Actual
capacity
Actors actual capacity to act
in situation, given possible
cognitive and institutional
barriers
High/low
If actors have low actual capacity,
institutional or behavioural analysis to identify
cognitive and institutional barriers to action
are indicated
Characteristics of the Adaptation Options
Characteristic
Description
Value
Indication on critical tasks and
appropriate methods
Relative
costs
Investment costs relative to
actors annual income and
capital stock.
High/low
If the costs are high, the ability to experiment and
learn (through ex-post evaluation) may be reduced
Investment
horizon
Time interval over which
outcomes attributes can be
attributed to an option and
must be considered.
Short/long
If the horizon is long, then it is desirable to assess
impacts, or include impacts in decision -making
Flexibility
Degree to which option can
be adjusted, or changed.
Institutional options tend to be
more flexible than physical
options
Yes/no
If option can be adjusted easily, then adaptive
management may be appropriate
Conflict
Degree to which individual
preferences and social
welfare are in conflict
High/low
If conflict is high, then institutional analysis may be
necessary
Complexity
Number and degree of
interdependency of variables
that determine outcomes
High/low
If the complexity is high, it is necessary to conduct
detailed case studies and/or build models in order
to understand and predict action-outcome
linkages.
If low, decisions can be made without expert
knowledge
Identifying Tasks Based on Adaptation
The looped circles
indicate that once
a task has been
identified and a
method applied, the
process should be
repeated, based on
the new adaptation
situation to identify
the next task.
PROVIA (2012)
Impact and Capacity Analysis
Impact analysis
Analyse future
impacts or current
state?
Private sector
National prioritizing
Resource constraints
Time constraints
Lack of data
Large uncertainties
Participatory setting
Capacity analysis
The focus on impact analysis or capacity analysis, is often not
determined by clear-cut criteria:
• Impact analysis may be more appropriate to identify priorities for
national or regional adaptation interventions or deeper analysis
• Capacity analysis may be more appropriate to identifying and
designing actions at local levels.
PROVIA (2012)
High-order Decision Tree for Capacity Analysis
Private
Capacity of
whom?
Organizational selfassessment
Public
Purpose of the
analysis?
Quick high-level screening in order
to prioritize further analysis
Identification of public adaptation
options
Adaptive capacity
indication
Public capacity
analysis
PROVIA (2012)
Analysing Impacts
• Analysing observed or expected impacts of climate
change (with and without adaptation). Tasks and
methods associated with this sub-task will be called
impact-analytical approaches.
• Analysing the capacity to prevent, moderate or adapt to
these impacts requires a diverse range of approaches
including indicators, behaviour-analytical and
institution-analytical approaches
Impact-analytical Methods
Decision Tree to Identify Impact Analytical Tasks and Methods
PROVIA (2012)
Impact-analytical Methods
Method
Type
Subtype
Impact Projection
Task
Project future impacts of climate change
Residual Impact Projection (RIP)
Potential Impact Projection (PIP)
Characteristics Interaction between the drivers and the study unit can be formally represented as a computational model.
of Adaptation
Given a scenario , impacts can be computed
Strategies (AS)
Theoretical
assumptions
People affected do not adapt.
People affected adapt
Adaptation can be formally represented by a computational
model
Steps taken
1. Selection of climate and socio-economic
scenarios
2. Computation of the potential impacts of those
scenarios
3. Evaluation of impacts using impact indicators
1. Selection of climate and socio-economic scenarios
2. Selection of adaptation options and strategies
3. Computation of the impacts of the scenarios and the
adaptation strategies
4. Evaluation of impacts using impact indicators
Results
achieved
A list of propositions that map each scenario to
an impact. Each proposition is interpreted in the
following way: “When the world evolves
according to scenario e and people don't adapt,
the impact on will be i”
A list of propositions that map each scenario to a residual
impact. Each proposition is interpreted: "When the world
evolves according to scenario e and one adapts according to
strategy a, the impact on the vulnerable system will be i"
Impact-analytical Methods (continued)
Method
Type
Subtype
Impact Projection
Residual Impact Projection (RIP)
Example
Cases
Dasgupta et al. (2007) address the question of
what are the impacts of sea-level rise on
developing countries. Impacts are projected
for sea-level rise scenarios of 1 to 5 meter by
overlaying data on land, population,
agriculture,
urban extent, wetlands and gross domestic
product (GDP) with the inundation zones of
the sea-level rise scenarios. They found that
tens of millions of people will be displaced and
economic damages will be severe but limited
to a couple of countries
Issues
involved
Rarely understood that potential impacts will
How to model adaptation? Model of adaptation (e.g. dumb,
almost certainly not occur because adaptation typical, smart and clairvoyant farmer) used has a significant
will take place. For example, people living in
indication on the results produced
the coastal zone are likely to move away
before experiencing permanent flooding
Potential Impact Projection (PIP)
Hinkel et al. (2010) address the question of what will be both
the potential and the residual impacts of sea-level rise on
coastal countries of the EU27.
The authors use the DIVA model to project the impacts of
various sea-level
rise and socio-economic scenarios on the countries first without
any adaptation (potential impacts) and then with an adaptation
strategy (residual
impacts) that raises dikes to protect against coastal flooding
and nourishes
beach to protect against coastal erosion. It is found that, while
the potential impacts are substantial, adaptation reduces these
impacts significantly by one or two orders of magnitude
Decision-tree: Choosing Tasks Relevant to Analysing Capacity
Decision-tree for choosing tasks relevant to analysing capacity from
a public perspective in order to identify options
PROVIA (2012)
Entry Point: Public Adaptation Problem in Which the Analyst Must Consider
the Critical Tasks for Influence the Adaptation of Other (Private) Actors
InterPotential
dependenc capacity
e
of private
actors
Actual
capacity
of private
actors
Example
Indication on the next task to carry out
No
High
Low
Public actor wanting to
influence elderly people
living in isolated areas,
often alone threatened by
heat waves
Behaviour analysis addressing the question: How the
capacity of the vulnerable actors to address the risk could
be increased. As the actual capacity of the vulnerable
actors is low, awareness raising or behaviour and
institutional analysis are indicated
No
High
High
Public actor wanting to
influence Tuscan wine
farmers threatened by
gradual change in mean
temperature
As the vulnerable actors have
Farmers using a shared
and already scarce
groundwater resource that
is declining under climate
change
Public actor wanting to
influence farmers so that
they keep migration
corridors open in order to
allow species to migrate
and thus maintain
biodiversity
Institutional analysis addressing the question what kind of
institutional arrangements may resolve conflict
Yes
Low
Low
Yes
High
Low
capacity to address risks but are not aware of it, the next
task would be risk communication or awareness raising
(risk communication, training, TV ads)
Appraising economic incentives. As actors may not have
capacity to address the potential loss of biodiversity on their
own due to lack of financial incentive to do so, addressing
the problem may be a question of designing appropriate
economic incentives e.g. through agri-environmental
schemes
Decision Tree Institution-analytical Tasks
PROVIA (2012)
Decision-tree for Choosing the General Approach to Decision-making
PROVIA (2012)
Empirical Methods
Empirically based methods refer to the gathering of
observable data to formulate and test a hypothesis and
come to a conclusion(s). These methods require often
substantial resources to be committed.
Methods for Selecting an Option From a Set
• Cost-benefit analysis (CBA)
• Cost-effective analysis (CEA)
• Multi-criteria analysis (MCA).
The criteria for selecting between CBA, CEA and MCA are based on
which outcome attributes are of interest to the decision maker.
If all attributes can be assigned one common attribute of money,
then CBA is appropriate.
If only one of the attributes cannot be assigned as a money attribute,
then CEA is appropriate.
When two or more attributes cannot be assigned a common
monetary attribute (and also cannot be expressed in one common
attribute) MCA is appropriate.
Selecting an Appropriate Decision-making Method Based on
Characteristics of the Adaptation Situation
Are there
risks due to
current
climate
variability?
Does the set
of options
include only
short-term/
flexible
options?
Given a
Relative
scenario, can costs of
I compute
options
the outcome
of a given
option?
Example
Next task indicated.
Yes
Yes
n/r
High
Agriculture threatened by drought,
options = (several drought-resistant
crops)
CBA, MCA
Yes
No
Yes
High
Forestry threatened by forest fires,
Robust decision-making
options = (emergency response options; on current and futures
planting different tree species )
outcomes
Coasts threatened by floods.
options = (protect, retreat, spread risk)
No
No
Yes
Biodiversity is threatened as species
habitats shifts decrease in area, and
may not permit migration due to lack of
corridors.
options = (maintain habitat corridors,
agri-environmental schemes, national
park)
Robust decision-making
on future options
Selecting an Appropriate Decision-making Method Based on
Characteristics of the Adaptation Situation (continued)
Are there
risks due to
current
climate
variability?
Does the set
of options
include only
short-term/
flexible
options?
Given a
Relative
scenario, can costs of
I compute
options
the outcome
of a given
option?
Example
Next task indicated.
No
No
Yes
High
Agriculture threatened by drought,
Options = (improving irrigation)
Ski lift operators threatened by
decreasing snow fall.
options = (summer tourism, artificial
snow-making, give up)
Robust decision-making
on current and future
outcomes
No
n/r
No
Not
known
Extreme event risk in central
Europe
As the direction of the
trend in risks is not clear,
adaptation action is not
required
PART 2:
Vulnerability and Adaptation Frameworks
Overview of Frameworks
• Description of some vulnerability and adaptation (V&A)
frameworks
• One size does not fit all
• Select a framework or method that best suits:
a) The questions being asked
b) Who is asking them
c) What kind of answers are needed
d) What resources, time data and technical support are
available
e) Have you used one before.
“Start with the end in mind”
Two Types of Frameworks
• Impacts:
a) Also known as “first generation” or “top down”
• Adaptation:
a) Also known as “second generation” or “bottom up”.
The Top-down Approach versus the Bottom-up Approach
Impacts Frameworks
• These frameworks are driven by the need to understand
long-term consequences:
a) Tend to look out many decades (to 2100 or beyond)
b) Tend to be scenario driven
Adaptation Frameworks
• These frameworks are driven by the following:
•
The need to supply useful information to
stakeholders:
a) They tend to address near-term concerns
b) Often address climate variability and change
c) Emphasis is on the socio-economic context
• Stakeholder identification of issues and involvement in
process:
a) Bring in analysis as necessary and appropriate
b) Can use consultative/consensus-building
techniques.
Adaptation Continuum
(Source: McGray et al., (2007) in Klein and Persson, 2008)
Adaptation Continuum
(Source: McGray et al., 2007)
Adaptation Dimensions
Impacts Frameworks
• IPCC Seven Steps (1994)
• UNEP Handbook (1998)
• U.S. Country Studies Program (1993 -1999)
Basic Structure for Impacts Frameworks
•
•
•
Baseline Scenarios
Population
• Institutions
GNP
• Environment
Technology
Climate change
scenarios
Biophysical impacts
Socioeconomic impacts
Autonomous
adaptation
Integration
Vulnerability
Purposeful adaptations
IPCC Seven Steps
1.
Define the problem
2.
Select the method
3.
Test the method
4.
Select scenarios
5.
Assess biophysical and socio-economic impacts
6.
Assess autonomous adjustments
7.
Evaluate adaptation strategies.
U.S. Country Studies Program
• Provided detailed guidance on specific methods:
a) Coastal resources
b) Agriculture
c) Livestock
d) Water resources
e) Vegetation
f) Human health
g) Wildlife
h) Fisheries
i) Adaptation
• Publications.
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Handbook
• Presents overviews of methods:
a) It is a source for information on different methods
b) Does not provide detailed guidance.
• Topics include:
a) Climate change scenarios
b) Socio-economic scenarios.
UNEP Handbook (continued)
• Integration
• Adaptation
• Water resources
• Coastal zones
• Agriculture
• Rangeland and livestock
• Human health
• Energy
• Forests
• Biodiversity
• Fisheries
Second Generation Adaptation Frameworks
• United nations Development Programme (UNDP):
a) Adaptation Policy Framework (2005)
b) Toolkit for Designing Climate Change
Adaptation Initiatives (2010)
• National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA)
Guidance
• USAID Adapting to Climate Variability and Change
(2007)
• Community Vulnerability Frameworks.
UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (2005)
Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity
Engaging stakeholders
APF COMPONENTS
Continuing the
adaptation process
Formulating an
adaptation strategy
Assessing future
climate risks
Assessing current
vulnerability
Scoping and designing
an adaptation process
UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework (continued)
•
Contains technical papers on the following:
a) Scoping and designing an adaptation project
b) Engaging stakeholders in the adaptation process
c) Assessing vulnerability for climate adaptation
d) Assessing current climate risks
e) Assessing future climate risks
f) Assessing current and changing socio-economic
conditions
g) Assessing and enhancing adaptive capacity
h) Formulating an adaptation strategy
i)
Continuing the adaptation process.
UNDP Adaptation Toolkit (2010)
NAPA Guidance
• National Adaptation Programmes of Action
• Least developed countries (LDCs) identify and rank
proposed measures to adapt to climate change
• Decision 28/CP.7
NAPA Process
NAPA Guidance (continued)
• The guidance document provides the framework for
developing NAPAs
• It discusses the following:
a) Objectives and characteristics of NAPA’s guiding
elements
b) Process
c) Structure.
NAPA Guidance (continued)
• Outcome of COP17 Durban
• This guidance document, is not designed to replace
NAPAs
• It is designed to allow all developing countries (not
just LDCs as per NAPAs) to plan and implement
medium-to long-term adaptation initiatives
• Support for the NAP process will be provided
through a Global Support Programme (GSP) for
implementation in the second half of 2012.
Differences Between the NAPA and NAP process
(Source: Draft NAP Global Support Programme (GSP), submission to the GEF 2012)
USAID Framework
USAID Framework
Risk-Based Frameworks
• Risk is defined as:
The chance of something happening that will
have an impact on objectives
• So risk is positive and negative
• And….must be a risk to something (a management
objective).
Risk-Based Frameworks
(Source: AdaptiveFutures, 2011)
Risk-Based Frameworks
(Source: Australian Government, 2006)
Four NGO Local and Community Frameworks
Name
Developer
Target Audience
Key inputs
Key Outputs
CEDRA
Tearfund
Development field
practitioner with
senior management
support
Guidance and checklist for
6 steps to identify and
prioritise hazards and
adaptation options
Identifies risks and
risk management
of programme,
including changes
to portfolio of
projects
CVCA
CARE
Project managers,
field staff, local
partners and
communities
Framework with supporting
questions and exercises:
participatory community
level analysis combines local
knowledge with climate
science.
Assessment
informs
programming and
provides evidence
base for advocacy
CRiSTAL
IISD, IUCN,
SEI, IC
Community-level
project planners
and managers
Two module analytical
framework for linking local
livelihoods and climate. MS
Excel interface for entering
information and compiling
report. Typically 1-5 days.
Results serve as a
basis for designing
or adjusting
projects for
adaptation
Adaptation
Toolkit
Christian Aid
Country
Programme and
partner staff
No set steps. Three toolkits
for understanding livelihoods
adaptation (PVCA),
community climate analysis
and strategy development
Analysis informs
livelihood
programming and
cc strategy
development
Selecting a Framework
• We are not recommending use of a particular
framework:
a) Different frameworks are appropriate for different needs
• What is needed in the long run is the integration of
climate change predictions and adaptation with a
baseline of vulnerability.
Selecting a Framework: Guiding Questions
• What is of concern – food production, water supply, health,
ecosystem loss?
a) (Concerns may be expressed not in climate terms
(e.g. extreme temperature) but in consequences of climate
impacts for people (e.g. drought, flood, malnutrition)
• Are there places (areas) that may be particularly vulnerable
that may need specific risk assessments?
• Who may be affected – where are they and what groups in
society?
• How far into the future is the concern?
• For what purpose is the assessment to be used – raising
awareness (education), policymaking?
• What kind of output is needed?
Application of Frameworks
• Projects often take longer and cost more than
originally thought (or proposed)
• Be careful about complex frameworks
• You may only get through the first few steps before
running out of time or funds
• Think about how a sectoral project will be run to
promote consistency
• Think about integrating sectoral assessments at the
end.
Key Factors in Determining How to Conduct Your Study
• You should not begin with the methods or models
you have in hand, but with the important questions
• Select methods and models that best help you
answer the questions.