The History and Future of Whales
Dr. Stephen R. Palumbi
Hot Science - Cool Talks Volume 45
Produced by and for the Hot Science – Cool Talks Outreach Lecture Series of the
Environmental Science Institute. We request that the use of any of these materials
include an acknowledgement of Dr. Stephen R. Palumbi and the Hot Science – Cool
Talks Outreach Lecture Series of the Environmental Science Institute of the University
of Texas at Austin. We hope you find these materials educational and enjoyable.
The History
and Future of
Whales
Stephen R. Palumbi
Stanford University's Hopkins Marine Station
Ocean
neighborhoods
have changed
The Sea Around Us Project:
D. Pauly and coworkers at UBC
The Sea Around Us Project:
D. Pauly and coworkers at UBC
The Sea Around Us Project:
D. Pauly and coworkers at UBC
Results of
effort-based
management
The Sea Around Us Project:
D. Pauly and coworkers at UBC
Decline in state of the
World’s fisheries
Vitousek et al. 1997
What fish is that on my plate?
Microdocs.org - Cooking with DNA - NPR’s Splendid Table
Package of
whale meat what species
is it?
What whale meat is legal?
• International Whaling Commission (IWC)
Sets catch limits and manages population
recovery
• Convention on International Trade of
Endangered Species (CITES)
Requires permits for international shipment
CITES
Convention for the International Trade of Endangered Species
•
Regulates imports and exports of endangered
species and derivatives of endangered species
•
Distinguishes endangered and commercially
threatened species
•
Member nations follow strict import/export
regulations
Scientific whaling
• IWC members issue
themselves permits for
scientific whaling.
• Review is necessary but
approval is not.
• Commercial use of
products is encouraged
after research use.
Forensic monitoring of
resource use
NOAA
Forensics and the future
DNA testing
of retail whale
products
examines
relationship
between
policy and
practice
Scott Baker on first Tokyo meat mission (1993)
Scott Baker
tries for a
GQ cover
Matt Hare on 1998 Tokyo mission
PCR copied whale
genes are
separated from
native whale DNA
in the field so we
can strictly follow
CITES regulations
Simplified phylogeny
of whales used for
assigning species
names to meat
samples
Molecular identification
of baleen whale products
N. minke
S. minke
Brydes
Pygmy Brydes
Sci
Humpback
Fin
Blue
Grey
339
369
10
2
9
7
49
2
7
Data from Palumbi, Baker labs 1993-2000
Species other than baleen whales
in retail markets
Sperm
Pygmy Sperm
Other Beaked
Whales
Baird’s
Cuvier’s
Porpoise
Killer Whale
Dolphin
Non-Whale
5
1
5
56
6
19
2
104
7
Data from Palumbi, Baker labs 1993-2000
Conclusion
• Many species of whales and
dolphins are for sale in retail
markets.
• Does this failure to protect put
any whales at risk of extinction?
Consequences of selling the wrong whales
Threatened Sea of Japan minke meat masquerading
as legal take from the North Pacific
North Pacific
genotypes
Sea of Japan
genotypes
Genotypes from market Surveys
show 1:2 mix of Sea of Japan and
North Pacific animals
The consequence of scientific whaling
Predicted extinction of Sea of Japan minke whales
(Baker et al. 2000)
Dolphins and porpoises make up a major
fraction of the whale meat market in Japan.
We’ve known for a while
that unsafe toxin loads
(heavy metals, PCBs,
Dioxins) are found most
commonly in dolphin and
porpoise products.
So, is dolphin meat
labeled as whale meat
unsafe?
Yes, dolphin meat is often toxic
How bad? Dolphins > Pacific minke whales> southern minkes
20
18
Southern minke whale
16
14
Northern minke whale
12
Odontocetes
10
8
6
4
2
0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
Mercury content
.6
.7
(micrograms/gram)
.8
.9
1
Mercury in Whale Meat
(samples from 1999)
50
One Stenella dolphin
sample @ 200 µg/g
45
40
35
Dolphins and porpoise meat has high
mercury loads
Count
30
25
20
15
Unsafe levels
10
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
Mercury content
6
7
(micrograms/gram)
8
9
10
The history of whales
revealed by genetics
How many whales were there
before hunting?
Catch records
for Antarctic
whales are
well known.
From Hilborn et al. 2004
Where History
Comes From
• Written records
• Oral records
• Fossils
• Tree rings
• Ice cores
• Reef cores
Byrd Polar Research Center 2005
Climate History
Tree rings
and ice cores
record climate
Arnold Paul
Family history
My Great Aunts
What do we know
about the histories
of whale
populations?
“It is impossible to describe either the
number of whales or their familiarity,”
with breath that “caused a most
annoying stench”
Jean Francoise de
La Perouse, 1786
Trouble with conventional
wisdom about whale history
(e.g. Atlantic fin whales)
Current estimate:
47,300
Fin Whales North Atlantic 1969-89
Mean: 47,300 Range: 27,700 - 82,000
www.iwcoffice.org/conservation/estimate.htm
Past estimate:
30-50,000
(Sargeant 1977)
www.calacademy.org
Genetic estimates of population size
Inbreeding decreases genetic
diversity
Mutation increases genetic diversity
Genetic estimates of population size
Large populations have low
inbreeding
High diversity
Genetic estimates of population size
Small populations have strong
inbreeding
Low diversity
For stable, single populations
and neutral mtDNA variation:
 = 2Ne(f)
: genetic diversity
: substitutions/generation
Atlantic collaborator Joe
Roman at Harvard University
World-wide sample of humpback
whales from biopsies
Data from Palumbi, Baker, Palsbol, Rosenbaum
Phylogenetic Trees
Branch Length and Genetic Diversity
Shared recent ancestors (similarity of DNA
signified by shorter branch length)
Shared ancient ancestors (greater differences
in DNA signified by longer branch length)
High global mtDNA
diversity for humpback
whales
Genetic diversity predicted
for 115,000 whales
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0.001 substitutions/site
4%
3%
2%
1%
Branch lengths (percent substitution)
0
Genetic estimates
of world-wide
population
Genetic diversity predicted
for 115,000 whales
wa2
003
wa1
a1
905
04
w
9
wa0
a0
707
06
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gi22
08
2
gi1
22
00
2
9
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1
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12
1
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81
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8
12
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03
218
6
5
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g1
020
19
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0
wa0
a0
514
13
w
5
wa0
515
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12G
L91
04
6
5
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6
12G
6
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L91
64
4
12G
L91
6
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L91
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4
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t g0
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38
2
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A2
N
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900
9002
7
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M
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N
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N
N
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NR
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A
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814
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9014
8
900
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3
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19
9010
N
F1
6
Nff 0
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1
N
6
DRB
1901
02S
9
02S
B901
901
9
02S
B
9
02S
B
901
9
02S
B
9
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B901
901
9
02S
B901
901
9
02S
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9
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901
9
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901
9
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901
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903
9
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902
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wa2
a2
117
16
w
1
ea1
227
26
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2
ea0
229
28
ea0
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931
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LI PP
C
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MH
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M
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f1
F1
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5
23G
L90
30
23G
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23GL90
L90
30
0
23GL90
L90
30
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23G
3
23G
L90
3
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23GL90
L90
30
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23GL90
L90
30
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23GL90
L90
30
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23G
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30
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23GL90
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23G
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23GL90
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27GL90
L91
09
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28G
2
28GL90
29
28GL90
L90
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28G
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28G
L90
2
28GL90
L90
29
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28G
2
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20
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29G
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29G
L91
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9005
1
900
M
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B
LTA
N
EET
MS
I LHOU
25GL90
L90
14
9
26G
0
26G
L90
0
4
26GL90
L90
04
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26GL90
L90
04
4
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26GL90
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M
O LA
P
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24G
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9
wa1
833 58
nz0
135
34
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1
nz0
1
36
138
37
tnz0
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5
gi1
14
30
6
9
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gi16
41
6
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16
43
6
2
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4
gi
1
4
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16
44
6
5
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4
5
6
t g0
2
ea1
356
50
a2
851
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4
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552
53
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5
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654
0
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17
62
7
1
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6
gi
1
6
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3
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gi
41
655
2
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gi2
34
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7
gi
3
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5
8
ap0
266
65
ap0
2
ap0
2
67
C
a0
8
B
Ca1
1. AP
Ca1
a1
3. AP
C
4
M
15. B
x
ar t
p
268
x
3. A
PB
tM
g0
5
gi0
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74
1
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7
gi01
75
gi0
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77
1
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gi
7
gi
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1
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gi0
01
70
1
9
gi
8
wa0
170
69
ea0
6
ea0
672
71
ap0
1
gi3
37
48
6
7
gi
4
gi07
49
gi11
8
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I11
1
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gia2
02
83
5
2
gi
0
8
5
G I0
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5a
G
Ca0
a0
1.. A
AP
B
P
C
6
B
C
a0
7
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B
C
6
B
Ca1
a2
a0
3.. A
5
AP
B
P
M
2.7.AP
x
PB
A
C
a0
B
H
i0
.4C
2
SB
Hi0
i03
.C
CS
SB
B
H
.1
Hi0
i05
.C
4
CS
SB
H
.
Hi06
. CSB
B
HE
i0A
.C
7
BB
S
0
1.SA
P
S
E
0
A
2.
P
SEA
03. A
PB
A
B
SE
EA
07.
A
6. P
PB
A
B
S
0
M
08. A
x
PB
A
Mx
27.
x
2. A
PB
A
B
M
0
P
Mx
25. A
PB
>1 million humpbacks
0.001 substitutions/site
4%
3%
2%
1%
Branch lengths (percent substitution)
0
North Atlantic
humpback
mtDNA diversity
= 2.2% (n = 188)
= 2*(# breeding females) *
(mutation/generation)
==> female size = 68,000
==> population size = 240,000
Current view of the history
of humpback whales
Original population - 115,000
North Atlantic original - 30,000
North Atlantic current - 10,000
MSY North Atlantic - 16,000
Nearly ready for harvest
Genetic view of the history
of humpback whales
Original population - 1,500,000
North Atlantic original - 314,000
North Atlantic current - 10,000
MSY North Atlantic - 170,000
Ready for harvest
in 150 years
Antarctic whales existed in
huge numbers
What does DNA tell
us about their past?
Frank goes back to Japan for
Antarctic
Title samples
 = 2Ne (µ/year)( (years/generation)
 = 0.02 for cyt b
µ/year = 0.34%
permillion years (cyt b)
Generation time
= 15 yr
 /2 * 5.1% per million generations =>
195,000 females => 1,150,000 population size
 = 2 Ne (µ/year)(years/generation)
 = 0.09 for entire HVI
of control region
µ/year = 2.0% per
million years (CR)
Generation time
= 15 yr
 /2 * 30% per million generations =>
150,000 females => 900,000 population size
B
A
20
C D
No evidence
that minke
whales prevent
recovery of
cousins in the
Antarctic
Blue Whale
E
0
Fin Whale
Number of Whales
(unit: 10,000)
40
E
20
0
20
Sei Whale
E
0
Genetic
estimate
of historic
population
of minke
whales
(900,000)
80
Minke Whale
60
40
20
E
0
1900
20
40
60
80
2000
Year
Data: Dr. Seiji Ohsumi
Genetic surveys to date that show
large historic population sizes
5 species
8 populations
3 ocean basins
6 genes
2004 IWC recommendation for
continuing genetic estimates
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Verify substitution rate
Analyze multiple loci
Measure population dynamics
Measure variance
Evaluate ghost populations
Get better measures for log records
Estimate food levels needed
Summary
• The past history of whales is a very important part of our
view of what the future should be.
• Estimates based on whaling ship log books appear to
underestimate populations. The genetics of whale
populations suggest that they were much more numerous
than we believed.
• Genetic techniques are useful tools for understanding
population levels, species diversity, and human exploitation
of whale resources.
• Knowledge of the history of whale populations and resource
use are essential components of whale conservation
efforts.
Dr. Stephen R. Palumbi
Professor of Biological Sciences, Stanford
University's Hopkin Marine Station
Stephen R. Palumbi is a professor of Biological Sciences at Stanford University's Hopkin
Marine Station. He and other research scientists in the Palumbi Lab study genetics,
evolution, conservation, population biology, and systematics of a diverse array of marine
organisms. He uses molecular genetic techniques in conservation-related research,
including the identification of whale and dolphin products available in commercial markets
and the genetics of marine reserves designed for conservation and fisheries enhancement.
His 2003 publication in the journal Science on Whales before Whaling in the North Atlantic
suggests that whale populations were 10 times larger than historical records indicate, which
has critical implications for the future of whaling and whale conservation.
Dr. Palumbi received his Ph.D. from University of Washington in marine ecology in 1984. In
1996, he received a Pew Fellowship for Marine Conservation Research. He has published
on the genetics and evolution of butterflyfishes, bryozoans, cone snails, corals, sea urchins,
sharks, spiders, shrimps, and whales. His recent books include The Evolution Explosion:
How humans cause rapid evolutionary change and Marine Reserves: An Ecosystem Tool for
Marine Management and Conservation.