Human-made crises:
Giovanni Marizza
gianni.marizza@yahoo.it
20 May 2014, 15.00 – 19.00
A particular case
of Crisis Management:
convincing public opinions
through
“CASUS BELLI”
(an invented, fake, false, untrue reason to carry out a war)
(how to convince your Public Opinion
that the Enemy is the Evil)
SOME EXAMPLES
FROM THE LAST
TWO CENTURIES:
Casus Belli (1)
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In 1812 Napoleon,
forgetting the recent
friendship treaty of Tilsit,
attacks and invades
Russia.
False reason: Russia
accused of reactivating
trades with Britain during
the Continental Block
employing neutral ships
“Casus Belli” (2)
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In 1859 France and Piedmont,
according to the secret
Agreements of Plombieres
between Cavour and Napoleon
III, compell Austria to declare
war inventing false episodes of
Austrian misbehaviour in some
small “Italian” Kingdoms under
the rule of Vienna
Result: the so-called 2nd Italian
“independence” war
“Casus Belli” (3)
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Berlin, 1870: “The King of Prussia ill-treated the
French Ambassador!”
“Casus Belli” (4)
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Cuba, 1898: “Spain sank the Maine!”
“Casus Belli” (5)
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Atlantic, 1917: “Germany sinks Lusitania, a civilian ship!”
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“Lusitania is a militarized ship” (Jane’s
Catalogue and Brassey Naval Book)
Used by USA (not at war) to transfer weapons
and ammunitions to UK (at war with GE)
GE warning: “Don’t embark civilians!”;
Lusitania leaves NY with 1.959 passengers
Off Liverpool a German U-boot torpedos that
“armed merchant cruiser”, a legitimate mil obj
Huge explosion, caused by munitions
“Casus Belli” (6)
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Ethiopia, 1935: “Ethiopia is attacking Italy!”
“Casus Belli” (7)
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Poland, 1939: “Poland attacks Germany!”
“Casus Belli” (8)
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Pearl Harbor, 1941: “Japan attacks USA treacherously!”
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7 October 1940: McCollum plan (14 points) to
compell Japan to begin a war,
1940: Roosevelt transfers the Pacific Fleet (sacrifical
victim) from Western coast (well protected) to
Hawaii. Adm Richardson fired,
1941 (Jan-Dec): dozens of reports about a Japanese
attack, Hawaii HQ never informed,
US-NL Treaty: war if JP crosses 10°N,
4 Dec: Treaty in force, US at war with JP, 3 days
before the attack!
6 Dec: Roosvelt reads the declaration of war and
informs the guests during the dinner: “Gentlemen, the
war begins tomorrow”
7 Dec: Pearl Harbour
Casus Belli (9)
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In 1939 Soviet Union attacks
Finland.
False reason: “Finland
attacked a Soviet garrison near
Leningrad on 27 November”
29 November: SU breaks
diplomatic relations.
30 November: SU attacks with
800.000 soldiers and 1.500
tanks
“Casus Belli” (10)
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Montecassino Abbey, 15 February 1944: “The
Germans have fortified the abbey!”
“Casus Belli” (11)
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Dresden bombing, 13 February 1945: “A military
objective!”
200.000 dead in 1 night
“Casus Belli” (12)
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Suez, 1956: “Egypt is attacking Israel!”
“Casus Belli” (13)
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Vietnam, 1964: Tonkino Gulf accident (never occurred)
Result: 4.000 days of war, 58.000 Americans KIA, 3 million
Vietnamese, 200 billion dollars, 7 million tons of bombs (3 times
those of WW2), USA defeated
Casus Belli (14)
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In 1990 Saddam Hussein
falsely accuses Kuwait of
doing an economic policy
against Iraqi interests.
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Contemporarily Saddam
falsely accuses Kuwait of
illegally pumping oil from
Iraqi soil (using “oblique”,
instead of vertical pumps)
“Casus Belli” (15)
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Iraq, 2003: “Iraqi regime has WMD!”
http://edition.cnn.com/2003/US/02/05/sprj.irq.powell.transcript/
Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, Powell’ chief of staff from
2002 to 2005: "It was the lowest point in my life"
“Casus Belli” (16)
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Libia, 2011: “Responsibility to protect
civilian populations” (UNSCR 1973)
OK, what about Siria?
Lessons learned:
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90% of wars began with a fake “casus belli”
Who wins is always right
An advice for the future: investigate “casus
belli” asap!
YESTERDAY AND TODAY:
DURATION OF CRISES AND
OF THEIR MANAGEMENT
Yesterday:
(before 1945)
short crises
quick decisions
Today:
long crises
long decisions
(in times of globalization and IT!!!)
Short crises of yesterday:
3 Italian “Independence” Wars (1848, 1859, 1866): 1 year
American Civil War (1861-1865): 4 years
Franco-German War (1870-1871): 1 year
Libia War (Italy vs. Ottoman Empire, 1911-1912):
1 year
2 Balkanic Wars (1912, 1913):
1 year
World War 1 (1914-1918): 4 years
Abyssinia Campaign (Italy vs. Ethiopia, 1935-1936):
1 ½ years
Spanish Civil War (1936-1939):
3 years
World War 2 (1939-1945): 5 years
Average of these 12 examples: 2 years
Short (quick) decisions of
yesterday (1):
Deciding the new world order after the Napoleonic campaigns:
CONGRESS OF VIENNA (1814-1815)
7 months
Deciding the new asset of the Balkans:
CONGRESS OF BERLIN (1878)
2 months
Deciding the new worl order after WW1:
CONFERENCE OF PARIS (1919)
6 months
Deciding the victory strategy in WW2 :
CONFERENCE OF TEHERAN (1943)
4 days
Short (quick) decisions of
yesterday (2):
Deciding the new world order after the victory in WW2:
CONFERENCE OF YALTA (1945)
7 days
Deciding the occupation zones in Germany:
CONFERENCE OF POTSDAM (1945)
2 weeks
Deciding the destiny of WW2 losers in Europe:
NUREMBERG PROCESS (1946)
10 months
Average of these 7 examples: 3 months
Long (never-ending) crises
of today:
Vietnam crisis (vs. France, USA, Cambodia, China
1945-1980): 35 years
Cold War (1945-1989): 45 years
India-Pakistan crisis (1947-today): 67 years
Israeli-Palestinian conflict (1948-today): 66 years
Korean crisis (1950-today): 64 years
Iraqi crisis (1991-today): 23 years, but…
Afghan crisis (2001-today): 13 years, but…
Average of these 8 examples: 50 years (+)
Long (never-ending)
decisions of today:
Armaments control (CFE, ABM, START, CSBM, SALT,…)
RESULTS?
Israeli-Palestinian conflict (Camp David, Taba, Oslo, Sharm
el-Sheikh, Annapolis,…)
RESULTS??
Afghanistan (Bonn, Rome, London, Tokio, Washington,
Moscow, The Hague, G8 Trieste,….)
RESULTS???
Sun Zu,
25 centuries ago:
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“Don’t begin a war if
you don’t know how
to exit”
“A war must be as
short as possible”
Suggestions for Thesis:
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Casus belli: comparing different crises
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Duration of crises: the reasons why
they are becoming never-ending
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(don’t copy!)
Crisis Management
and Prevention
Giovanni Marizza
gianni.marizza@yahoo.it
20 May 2014, 15.00 – 19.00