Dealing with Uncertainty:
Navigating Biodiversity Change
in Canada’s Arctic National Parks
ARCTIC BIODIVERSITY SYMPOSIUM
MUSEUM OF NATURE, OTTAWA, NOVEMBER 2010
Torngat Mountains National Park, Labrador
Photo: D. McLennan
Outline
1. Parks Canada in the North
2. Arctic climate change - synopsis
3. Navigating biodiversity change - a
proposed proactive adaption
strategy for Arctic national parks
4. A strategy for the Arctic?
Arctic shrub
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heritage and foster public understanding,
• celebrating 125 years of natural heritage
appreciation and enjoyment in ways that
conservation
ensure their ecological and
commemorative integrity for present and
future generations. Sea ice
Orcas in
Hudson Bay
disappearing
Protected Areas in the Canadian Arctic
Increased productivity
Sirmilik NP
With permission
Cadieux et al 2008
• increased ‘greening’
• increased productivity
• permafrost slumping
• lemming cycle dampening?
Dampening of Lemming Cycles
Permafrost Melting
With permission
Cadieux et al 2008
?
1992-2008
Photo: Joseph
Culp/Erik Luikers, EC
Analysis by Rob Fraser and Ian Olthof, CCRS
National Park
Application of Lawler (2009)
models by Katherine Lindsay, EC
Synopsis: Arctic Change
1. Arctic climate is changing rapidly
2. Arctic ecosystems are also responding, but much less
rapidly
i.
ii.
terrestrial physical environment showing important changes
biota less responsive – mainly in situ productivity/relative
dominance changes
3. How fast? What species? Species interactions? Disease?
Species adaptation? Climate feedbacks? C dynamics?
4. more questions than answers
5. monitoring and research to reduce uncertainty
Reducing Uncertainty
A Model for Proactive Adaptive Management
Conduct/upgrade
process-based
inventories
Park Management Plan
‘Maintain or restore EI’
consultation and decisions
set 5-15 year targets
Scoping Document
State of the
Park Report
Ecological Integrity Monitoring
What change is happening
in park ecosystems?
Focussed Research
How and how fast are park
ecosystems changing?
Management Decision Support
1. Outline key issues
2. Provide a 5-15 year forecast
3. Outline options and risks
Focal watershed
Ivatak Brook
Focal watershed
Nachvak Brook
‘Mapping Ecological Integrity’
Biodiversity + Ecosystem process
LONG TERM SITES
(FOCAL ECOSYSTEMS)
na
Tundra/Wetland/Forest
• vegetation change
(ITEX, surveys, structure,
biomass)
• active layer (CALM)
• soil temperature
• snow
• small mammals
• songbirds
• (arthropods)
Streams
• benthic inverts
• discharge
• water quality
• char/fish community
OTHER GROUND
MEASURES
Tundra/Wetland
grizzly, fox, caribou,
muskox, raptors, BBS,
lemmings, plant
phenology
Lakes and Streams
char/fish community,
Harlequin ducks
Coastal
polar bears, coastal fish,
shorebirds/waterfowl,
raptors
REMOTE SENSING
ParkSPACE Measures
• land cover
(ecotype/community)
• productivity (biomass
and VIs)
• permafrost (NEST)
• lake and river ice
• coastal change
• glaciers (area, retreat,
mass balance)
The Coast
• increased coastal erosion/sedimentation
• changing hydrology in estuaries and lagoons
• coastal fish ecology andEcotype
access to streams
Map
• direct effects on ice-dependent species
(polar bears, seals, walrus) Ivvavik NP
Potential Climate
Change EffectsIvvavik NP
Tundra and
Wetlands
• eastern boundary of
• ongoing influx of southern species
Beringia – unglaciated
• effects on caribou
• most northerly forests in
• increasing shrubs and trees
NA – south facing slopes
• > tundra fire? snow? CO2?
• 28 ecotypes
• important range for
Porcupine Caribou Herd
Streams and Lakes
• changes in flooding; break up/freeze up
• > mass wasting?
• changes in permafrost and thermokarst
• mountain stream winter freezing?
• effects on charr - new fish species (salmon?)
Opportunities for Development
Porcupine
Bluenose
West
Bathurst
Beverly
Bluenose East
Ahiak
Qaminirjuaq
The Challenge
• navigating the combined ecological effects of climate
change and Northern development to foster socialecological resilience and mitigate biodiversity loss
• Success will depend a new kind of inclusive approach
that coordinates and optimizes the efforts of all
Northern actors.
An Arctic Model for Proactive Adaptive Management
Pan-arctic
Inventory
Coordinated Monitoring
What change is happening
in Arctic ecosystems?
Northern Strategy
(‘Northern Management Ctte”)
consultation and decisions
set 5-15 year targets
Scoping
State of the
Arctic Report
Focussed Research
How and how fast are Arctic
ecosystems changing?
Management Decision Support
1. Outline key issues
2. Provide a 5-15 year forecast
3. Outline options and risks
Ongoing Arctic Monitoring Initiatives
Federal
•
•
•
•
•
•
Parks Canada EI Monitoring
EC/MSC/WSC – climate, water
quantity and quality, CABIN
EC/CWS – caribou, polar bears,
migratory birds, seabirds,
EC – CBMP EMG Freshwater
DFO – CBMP EMG Marine
INAC – BREA , MGP
Territories and Others
•
•
•
•
Territories (INAC)
– NWT - CIMP
– Nunavut - NGMP
Communities
– Arctic Borderlands
– Sea Ice Nunavut
– others
Industry
– Akati Mines
– Mackenzie gas pipeline
Academia
– CEN
– Arctic Net
National Park
Community > 1,000
CHARS
Science Sites
Tundra Ecosystems – Olthof et al. CCRS
Canada’s
Arctic
and
PAs
Arctic National Parks as INoRMs
Integrated Network of Research and Monitoring
1. ‘baselines’ of Arctic ecological change
2. Focal Watersheds Model: ecological inventories, long term
monitoring sites, stream discharge, weather stations;
3. “sites for science”
4. long term commitment to EI monitoring and reporting
5. cooperative management with Indigenous partners
6. present in northern communities/ operational in the field
7. research logistical support – transportation, safety
Canadian Arctic and Sub-Arctic Protected Areas
Northern Science
Build on IPY Momentum
• world-leading science coordinated nationally and
cooperating internationally
• “From Knowledge to Action” IPY Montreal 2012
• strong outreach/communication component
• effective interaction with Arctic communities
• legacy of young scientists to ‘carry the torch’
Keys to Success
1. Work together on pan-Arctic objectives set
out in the Northern Strategy
2. Empower northern communities as a key
component of the solution
3. Invest in a knowledge system to reduce
uncertainty and understand change
Please Contact:
Donald McLennan
Parks Canada Agency
25 rue Eddy, Hull, QC, K1A0M5
Tel: (819) 953 6464
email: donald.mclennan@pc.gc.ca
An unknown future
working together for a common future
Science Management Support
1. Research Summaries
• plain language summary of research results
• implications for park management objectives
• risks/benefits of acting/not acting
• identify emerging issues
2. Process Models and Projections
• scaled down climate models, weather projections
• 5 – 15 year projections of ecosystem change
• model monitoring/model improvements/model
iterations
The Role of Traditional Knowledge
There is now less snow fall and the only snow fall we get, the wind
blows it away so it doesn’t have time to build up and get
compact. Now we just have very small snowdrifts. The snow
drifts in the past were so big that the igloos were automatically
half way built.
[Original in Inuktitut – Inuit Knowledge Project]
Figure4.4. Mean annual air and soil
temperatures (at 2-cm and 10-cm
depths) from 1995 to 2002 in the
Qarlikturvik Valley lowlands, Bylot
Island (Gagnon et al., 2004).
The Need to Collaborate Internationally
1. the circum-polar Arctic is one interconnected and
interdependent ecosystem - need for cooperation
2. build on IPY progress and further increase circumpolar
cooperation and collaboration (ITEX, PPS, seabirds, others)
3. SAON, IASC, and many other initiatives ongoing
4. broaden opportunities for science funding; access to global
expertise
5. CBMP links biodiversity monitoring – Expert Monitoring Groups
6. Canada takes over Chair of Arctic Council next
S&T Program
Extensive process to define S&T priorities for
CHARS
• Scoping and synthesis papers
• Visioning Workshop
• International panel convened by Council
of Canadian Academies
Canadian Visioning
workshop’s
proposed S&T
priority themes:
Sustainable resource development
Environmental science & stewardship
Climate change
Healthy & sustainable communities