European Territorial Scenarios
and Vision 2050
ESPON ET2050
JUNE 2013
Dublin
ET2050 Consortium

http://www.et2050.eu
ET2050 Goal
From Project Specifications:
The ESPON Monitoring Committee,
DG Regio and the ESPON Coordination Unit
wish to start a territorial vision-building
process that involves relevant stakeholders at
European, national and regional level,
having 2050 as time horizon
ET2050 Methodology
Scientifically-driven (what may happen in the future?)
Politically-driven (what we would like to happen?)
Domain
Forecast Models 2010-2030
Coverage
Partner
Demography
MULTIPOL
Cohort-component, hierarchical,
multiregional, supranational model of
population dynamics (up to 2030)
ESPON at
NUTS2
OIM
Economy
Transport
Land-use
Integrated
MASST
Econometric: social, macroeconomic and
Territorial (up to 2030)
TT/MOSAIC
Integrated modal split and traffic assignment
based on TRANSTOOLS OD trip matrices
(up to 2030)
METRONAMICA
Spatial and dynamic land use model that
Uses constrained cellular automata to
allocate land-uses (up to 2050)
SASI
Dynamic System linked to transport networks
(up to 2050)
ESPON at
NUTS2
POLIMI
EU27 at
NUTS2
MCRIT
EU27
at Cells 1 km2
RIKS
ESPON
and Western
Balkans
at NUTS3
S&W
Domain
Foreight Meta-models 2030-2050
Coverage
Integrated
TV+
First version developed in the
TRANSVISIONS study (DGMOVE, 2008) to
support the EC Communication on the
Future of Transport, Revision of White Paper
and TENs Guidelines
(up to 2050)
Europe
Integrated
PASH+
First version developed in the
PASHMINA 7FP project (2011)
(up to 2050)
World
Partner
MCRIT
MCRIT
Domain
Policy-evaluation
Coverage
TIA
Territorial Impact Assessment
First version developed in the
ESPON 3.2 study, then refined and applied
in several ESPON projects (TIPTAP…).
Europe
Partner
POLIMI
1.
Definition of criteria to evaluate policy-aims
2.
Definition of relative weights (in the ESPON MC frame)
3.
Identification of scientifically sound indicators to measure the
criteria (to be calculated with outputs produced by forecast and
foresight models)
4.
Evaluation of the scenarios, and based on the evaluation
adjustment of the scenarios
5.
Evaluation of the VISION, and based on the evaluation
refinement
European Territorial Vision 2050
A Vision is a dream of an ideal
future for European territory
How to build a territorial Vision
Scientific input (scenarios and models towards 2050)
To be presented 13 June, and cf leaflet background)
Existing territorial Visions
Cf SIR, chap 9 & annex + poster to comment during ESPON seminar
Other material (ESPON projects, EU documents,
OECD, World Bank strategies, ....)
Participatory activities with main stakeholders
How to build a territorial Vision
PRESENT STATE
PARTICIPATORY PLAN
LITERATURE
REVIEW
&
SYNTHESIS OF
VISION
DESIGN
BASELINE
SCENARIOS
DATABASE
MANAGEMENT
ISSUES
THE VISION
EXPLORATOR
Y SCENARIOS
MIDTERM TARGETS AND PATHWAYS
FORECAST &
FORESIGHT
MODELLING
Main objective of the the Participatory Plan

The building
process of the
scenarios and the
Territorial VISION
should be cyclical
and dynamic
allowing the ESPON
Monitoring
Committee and
other main
stakeholders to take
active part in the of
the VISION
Scientifically-driven
VISION
Scenarios
Politically-driven
Participatory plan and activities
A database:
around 800 contacts , including different type of stakeholders (cf
specifications); planning practitionner, European Commission,
(including Sec Gen, DG CLIM, DG ECFIN and DG EMPL, as requested by
the ESPON CU),Council of the EU (DG G1 Regional Policy Team),
European Parliament (REGI Commission), Committee of the Regions,
ECOSOC, various other EU bodies/agencies (EEA, etc.), public interest
groups (e.g. AEBR, AER, CPMR, Eurocities, Metrex), territorial groupings
(Council of the Baltic Sea States, Danube Strategy, Grande Région, Plan
Bleu, INTERREG programmes, etc.), non EU international organisations
(Council of Europe, International Maritime Organisation, UNECE, UNEP,
etc.) various national planning administrations (in particular past, current
and coming presidencies of the NTCCP).
Group 4 includes a broad category of “scientific experts”, as well as two
specific categories: ESPON project Lead Partners, and ESPON Contact
Points.
Contact and consultations: Parp first phase
•Spring 2012 first round consultations,
+/- 50 interviews (cf FIR synthesis)
• Fall 2012: second round consultations:
European Commission , EESC,(cf SIR synthesis)
• 2 meetings with D Huebner from REGI committe of
the European Parliament, and contact with CoR
•Workshops with MC (cf FIR and SIR)
Territorial Vision roadmap /Parp phase 2
Summer 2013 elaboration of DRAFT 1 Territorial Vision
Delivery: 23 September 2013
7 October 2013, Brussels:
ESPON day workshop/Conference on territorial Vision and
scenarios
- a plenary session presenting last scenarios evolutions and
modeling, And Draft 1 TEVI
- Workshop on the Draft 1 TEVI
Participants: all participants to phase 1 Parp
Purpose:
Gather input for Draft 2 TEVI
Co ownership building
Territorial Vision roadmap
Mid November 2013: Draft 2 TEVI
December 2013: Espon seminar Lithuania
MC workshop on draft 2 TEVI
28 February 2014: Draft final report,
including draft 3 TEVI
Spring 2014: MC workshop on Draft 3 TEVi
June 2014: Final report, ESPON seminar Greece
Presentation of final TEVi to MC
workshop 12 June Dublin
A Vision is a dream of an ideal future for European
territory
Which Europe should your children and
grandchildren live in?
Workshop Dublin, 12 June
Two activities:
Purpose: to collect your views on
the desirability of key policy choices
NOT about the likeliness
Activity 1: ranking and selecting
Anonymous individual exercise 35 minutes
Activity 2:Mapping:
subgroup mixed geographically 70 minutes
Workshop Dublin, 12 June
Activity 1: individual, anonymous
11 questions
2 groups of questions
1-6: ranking: relate to Europe as whole
7-11: selecting: between policy choices alternatives
(potentially antagonistic),
A OR B , at different geographical level
no A and B for the same question at the same
geographical level
For the same question, Possibility of A for one
geographical level, and B for another
Workshop Dublin, 12 June
Example: Ranking:
EU Enlargement
Is it desirable to enlarge the EU with new Member
States (MS)? YES/Rather yes/rather not/No
Comment: feel free to comment:
questionnaire will be treated qualitatively, not
quantitatively
Workshop Dublin, 12 June
Example: selecting:
Workshop Dublin, 12 June
Activity 2: mapping group per 8 countries
MAPS: 4 geographical levels
Europe in the world towards 2050
ESPON space and neighbouring countries towards
2050
Inside ESPON space
Regional Europe
Having in mind 2050 Vision (ideal future)
MAPS towards Vision 2050
MAPS
)
MAPS: Towards Vision 2050
MAPS: towards Vision 2050
Which links Europe should favour with
The world
Neighbouring cpuntries
Inside ESPON space
Where to invest in priority in
The world
Neighbouring cuntries
Inside ESPON space
MAPS towards Vision Et 2050
Which areas shoud be protected (environnement
or patrimonial)
At cross border areas with neighbouring countries
Inside ESPON space
Which cooperation to favour at regional and
macroregionalevel
Core territory
Ad hoc, larger cooperation
instructions
3 posters
4 geographical levels
5 maps
15 minutes per geographical level
8 countries per group
No constraint
Be ‘European’ Vision 2050 oriented,
trying to reach a ‘group’ agreement,
Possibility for specific request, demand, suggestions:
poster+questionnaire
OUTLINE FOR DISCUSSION
TOWARDS TERRITORIAL VISION EU 2050
Key Issues from existing macroregional Visions
BALTIC SEA & NORTHERN
PERIPHERIES
TERRITORIAL DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE FOR 2030 (VASAB)
NORTHWESTERN
EUROPE
Feel free to add
IN 2030 THE BALTIC SEA REGION IS A
WELL-INTEGRATED AND COHERENT
MACROREGION
THE SPATIAL VISION
NEW TRANSNATIONAL COOPERATION ZONES
your comments!
A WELL-BALANCED SETUP OF
METROPOLITAN CENTRES
INTERNATIONAL GATEWAYS INVESTMENT ZONES
TRANSNATIONAL TRANSPORT AXES DEVELOPMENT
CORRIDORS
INTEGRATED ENERGY PRODUCTION
AND SUPPLY SYSTEM
THE NORVISION
A MODEL FOR SUCCESSFUL
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE
TERRITORIAL COHESION POLICY
FAST, RELIABLE AND
ENVIRONMENTALLY EFFICIENT
TECHNOLOGIES OF TRANSPORT,
INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION
A VERITABLE EUROPEAN SEA
MACROREGION, WHICH
DEMONSTRATES AN INTEGRATED
LAND AND SEA-SPACE PLANNING AND
MANAGEMENT
WELL INTEGRATED INTO EUROPE AND THE WORLD
ECONOMY
BALANCED SPATIAL STRUCTURE
Contact us:
DEMOCRATIC AND CO-OPERATIVE PLANNING
NATURAL RESOURCES, ECOLOGICAL AND CULTURAL
HERITAGE EQUILIBRIUM
URBAN REGIONS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FRIENDLY WAY
URBAN REGIONS AS MOTORS OF ECONOMIC REGIONAL
DEVELOPMENT
URBAN REGIONS WHICH PROMOTE SOCIAL
INTEGRATION
URBAN REGIONS WHICH ARE ATTRACTIVE PLACES FOR
THEIR POPULATIONS AND VISITORS
igeat.ulb.ac.be
vcalay@ulb.ac.be
www.et2050.eu
HUMAN ACTIVITIES WHICH ARE IN HARMONY WITH
NATURE
RURAL POPULATIONS PARTICIPATE FULLY IN
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL PROGRESS
THE ATLANTIC SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT
PERSPECTIVE
GREATER SOLIDARITY BETWEEN COASTAL
AREA AND THE HINTERLAND
TO RESPOND TO THE NEED TO STRUCTURE
DEVELOPMENT AREAS WHICH ARE LESS
DEPENDANT ON THE CAPITAL CITIES
IDENTIFIES FIVE MAJOR PROJECT AND
DEVELOPMENT AREAS INSIDE WHICH
STRONGER – BUT NOT EXCLUSIVE –
COOPERATION BETWEEN REGIONS IS
REQUIRED
SOUTHWESTERN EUROPE
THE MEDITERRANEAN IN
2030
A STRONGER AND
RICHER ECONOMIC
GROWTH
DEVELOPPING
EUROMEDITERRANEAN
SYNERGIES
EXTENDING
CERTAIN MEANS OF
REDISTRIBUTION
AND PROTECTION
TO THE WHOLE OF
THE
MEDITERRANEAN
STRENGHTENING
COMPETITIVENESS
SOUTHERN EUROPE IN 2030 (ESPON)
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLUSTER OF
THE LATIN ARCH (GENOA, NICE,
MARSEILLE, MONTPELLIER,
BARCELONA AND VALENCIA) &
INTEGRATION OF THE CLUSTER
MADRID-SEVILLE LISBON-PORTO
(HST NETWORK)
RURAL AREAS AND LANDSCAPES IN
EUROPE ARE MUCH MORE
DIVERSIFIED
NUMEROUS CHANGES HAVE TAKEN
PLACE IN AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTION, ENERGY SYSTEMS,
WATER MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS
AND TOURIST DEVELOPMENT, IN
ORDER TO FACE THE IMPACTS OF
INCREASING DROUGHT
THE DENSIFICATION PROCESS OF
COASTAL AREAS HAS CONTINUED
BUT FURTHER SPRAWL COULD BE
AVOIDED AND NATURAL AREAS
WERE EFFICIENTLY PROTECTED
GERMANY AND
ALPINE
COUNTRIES
RAUMKONZEPT SCHWEIZ
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AT THE
CORE
MAINTENANCE AND ENHANCEMENT OF
LIVING SPACES, ECONOMIC AREAS AND
LANDSCAPES
POLYCENTRIC SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT
PATTERN ENHANCING
COMPETITIVENESS AND TERRITORIAL
COOPERATION AND PARTNERSHIPS
FOCUSED MAINLY ON METROPOLITAN
REGIONS AND MEDIUM SIZED TOWNS
BUT INCLUDES SOME ALPINE REGIONS.
LEITBILDER DER RAUMENTWICKLUNG
GROWTH AND INNOVATION:
(GERMANY)
ORGANIZATION OF THE TERRITORY
AROUND LARGE METROPOLITAN
MAINTAINING REGIONS
ESSENTIAL SERVICES:
SAFEGUARDING AN URBAN SYSTEM OF
CENTRAL PLACES, IN PARTICULAR IN
AREAS
FACING
POPULATION
DECLINE
PRESERVING RESOURCES,
DESIGNING
CULTURAL REGIONS: OPEN SPACE AND
CULTURAL LANDSCAPES
CLIMATE AND ENERGY AS WELL AS
MOBILITY AND LOGISTICS TO BE
INCLUDED
SOUTH MEDITERRANEAN
COUNTRIES
EASTERN EUROPE
SHRINKING POPULATIONS ET
NEGATIVE MIGRATION BALANCES
IMPACT OF NEIGHBOURING
COUNTRIES
GREATER INTER- &
INTRAREGIONAL DISPARITIES
IMPROVEMENT OF LAND USE
MANAGEMENT
REINFORCEMENT OF CAPITAL
CITIES AND MAJOR URBAN
CENTRES
DIFFICULTIES IN REDUCING GHG
EMISSIONS AND IN INCREASING
RENEWABLE ENERGIES
IMPROVEMENT OF GOVERNING
STRUCTURES &
DECENTRALISATION
IMPROVEMENT OF TRANSPORT
STRUCTURE AND ACCESSIBILITY
DANUBIAN COUNTRIES
VISION FOR THE DANUBE REGION
AN INTEGRATION OF ALL THE COUNTRIES OF THE ZONE
TO THE EUROPEAN UNION
A BALANCED ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND
EMPLOYMENT
A POLYCENTRIC AND DECENTRALIZED DEVELOPMENT
DYNAMIC
AN IMPROVEMENT OF RELATIONS BETWEEN COUNTRIES
AND REGIONS OF THE ZONE
SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE
TERRITORIAL FRAGMENTATION AT THE SCALE OF THE
MACROREGION
THE BLUE PLAN
A CONTRASTED URBANIZATION: DENSE BUT POLYCENTRIC IN ITALY
AND SLOVENIA WHILE DENSE AND CONCENTRIC IN EGYPT AND LYBIA
LOCAL GOVERNANCE /
PARTICIPATORY APPROACH / LONG
TERM VISION
AN ACCENTUATED URBAN
DIMENSION IN PANMEDITERRANEAN COOPERATION
A WORSENING GOVERNANCE CAPACITY AND AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE
AFTER THE ARAB SPRING
DIVERSIFICATION OF THE RURAL
ECONOMY
HIGH QUALITY FOOD PRODUCTION
CONTRASTING DEMOGRAPHICAL CHALLENGES: POPULATION AGEING
IN SLOVENIA AND ITALY WHILE YOUNG POPULATION IN LYBIA AND
EGYPT WITH VARIOUS IMPACTS ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND SOCIOCULTURAL FACTORS
SMALL AND MEDIUM SCALE
AGRICULTURE
WATER AND ENERGY-FRIENDLY
PRODUCTION AND TECHNOLOGY
REPAIRING AND RESTORING
COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS
BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE
ENERGIES
IMPROVING TRANSPORT SYSTEMS
SUSTAINABLE TOURISM
HINTERLAND ECONOMIC AND
SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT
THREAT OF DESERTIFICATION THAT SHOULD BE (PARTLY) TACKLED
BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF GREEN ECONOMIES; TURN TO
RENEWABLE ENERGIES; LYBIA AND EGYPT AS SOLAR POWERS
“Existing Vision key issue poster (Dublin
castle
+ questionnaire to be distributed at
the end
“Too seek Europe, is to make it!
Europe exists through its search for the infinit
-and this is what I call adventure”
Zygmunt Bauman, “An Adventure called Europe”
www.et2050.eu
IGEAT
vbiot@ulb.ac.be
vcalay@ulb.ac.be