Caux Dialogue on Land & Security 2014
Analyzing risks
The Geopolitics of Land Degradation
Caux July 1st 2014
Luc GNACADJA
Biodiversity
Risks & Threats in the 21st Century
"Global biodiversity models project that terrestrial
species extinctions, loss of natural habitat, and
changes in the distribution and abundance of
species, species groups and biomes will continue
throughout this century, with land use change
being the main threat in the short term, and
climate change becoming progressively much
more important over the next several decades.”
Projections of 21st century change in biodiversity and associated ecosystem services
Source: CBD , 2010)
Planetary Boundaries
Expansion of global cropland till 2050:
Overshoot safe operating space
Source: “Assessing Global Land Use: Balancing Consumption with Sustainable Supply” UNEP/IRP, 2014
Land use change has transformed the Biosphere
World Population trends 1950-2050 (Medium variant)
Source: Jones (2011), from WBGU (2011)
Global land use is a key indicator of global
sustainability and must be assessed & monitored
World Population trends 1950-2050 (Medium variant)
• The world might need additional cropland the size
of Brazil by 2050
• The total additional land use demand in 2030
compare to land useSource:
in 2000
is (2011),
792 million
ha in
Jones
from WBGU
(2011)
BAU scenario. (Source UNEP/IRP, 2014)
• Where will such expansion take place?
• Again over the remaining natural habitats while
out there are more than 2 billion hectares of
landscape that still hold potential for restoration?
Hot spots of the security-related impacts of
Climate Change and Desertification
Source: “Global Environmental Problems as a Risk to Security” German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2014
3 Conflicts Constellations
4 HotsSpots
• Water Scarcity
• Loss of Land
• Food Insecurity
•
•
•
•
Sahel: Desertification & Drought
Middle East: Hydrological Water Scarcity & Drought
Central Asia: Hydrolog. Water Scarcity & Desertification
South & South East Asia: Tropical Cyclones
Migration Environment & Conflicts
Migration main
trajectories
Drought
Desertification
Water Scarcity
are major push
factors for
environmentallyinduced migration
Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change WBGU (2007)
DEGRADATION Vs RESTORATION?
It’s all about trade-offs
1. Undisturbed
Forest
U
s
e
Grassland
i
n
Function
t
2. Extensive
change
e
n
or
s
Function
i
trade
3. Intensive
f
off
i
c
a
t
i
Source: PBL 2009
o
From trade-offs in Ecosystem functions towards Total
n degradation
DEGRADATION Vs RESTORATION?
It’s all about trade-offs
1. Undisturbed
2. Extensive
Function
change
or
3. Intensive
Function
trade
off
4. ..
Degraded?
Forest
U
s
e
i
n
t
e
n
s
i
f
i
c
a
t
i
o
n
Grassland
Future scenarios
Achieving a Land-Degradation Neutral World (LDNW) by 2030
Potential
Soil factor
NPP
Objectif:
Operate Land use
expansion on
already degraded
areas
LDNW
Restoration
Food
Fiber
Water
Floods
Climate
Biodiversity
Priorities:
1. Prevent
degradation
2. Restore
degraded areas
Prevention
Business as usual
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Time
LDNW by 2030 = Same amount of biologically &
economically productive land including soil and
its ecosystem services as in 2000
Figure adapted from Ben Ten Brink, 2013
10
Conclusion
Quoting Aldo Leopold and Francis Bacon
 ‘We abuse land because we regard it as a
commodity belonging to us. When we see
land as a community to which we belong,
we may begin to use it with love and
respect.’
 ‘We cannot command Nature except by
obeying her.’
Thank you
OWG-12
Preliminary
List of SDGs
on June 16th 2014
Can’t see where
CONSERVATION
does’nt somehow
qualify