REGIONAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FORESTS AND BIRD COMMUNITIES Stephen Matthews1,2, Louis Iverson2, Anantha Prasad2, Matthew Peters2 1 School of Environment and Natural Resources Ohio State University 2USFS Northern Research Station Today's topic Climate is changing and species are responding Conservation and management strategies that ignore these change will likely fail (Lawler et al. 2009) How can we begin to integrate climate change impacts into complicated realm of conservation Must address in stages and build our understanding Building broad-scale models is a logical start Working with managers to translate results to “on the ground realities” Land temp Eleven indicators that the climate is changing Sea temp Sea level Snow cover State of the climate 2009, NOAA Vertebrates: phenological responses to a changing climate • Amphibians • Calling 10 -13 days earlier for half of species from ~1912 to 1990 Gibbs and Breisch 2001 • Birds • Early arrival Beaumont et al. 2006 • Hatching earlier Both and Visser 2005, GCB, Fig 4 Such shifts can lead to mismatches in timing • Reviewed in Root et al. 2005 Wood frog = 13 days Wildlife distribution shifts linked to climate change Distributional shifts Mammals: Southern species increase and northern species decline, southern flying squirrel N 225 km since 1880 (Myers et al. 2009, GCB, Fig 3) Birds: winter range northern boundary shift 1.48 km/yr Sorte and Thompson 2007 breeding range also show northward trend 2.35 km/yr Hitch and Leberg, 2006 Future effects: Highly tied to the level of CO2 emissions ?? Rising Temperatures in NE. US 12 o te m p e ra tu re c h a n g e ( F ) (annual average) 10 8 Higher: 6.5-12.5oF o b s e rva tio n s h ig h e r e m is s io n s lo w e r e m is s io n s Lower:3.5-6.5oF 6 Large difference between High and Low emissions! 4 2 0 -2 -4 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Expected growing season changes (for northern Wisconsin) HAD Hi +8 C (14F) PCM Lo +2 C Growing season temperature higher and not much change in precipitation = more physiological stress on biota Challenges of modeling species impacts of climate change Future climate uncertainty GCM variations Human-produced levels of CO2 uncertain Bottom line: we need to incorporate different Species likely to respond individually approaches to quantify and “whittle away” at Biology not that well-known for many species uncertainties to develop ecologically informed projections Model validation far into nottopossible – modeling is afuture key tool do this DISTRIB model Species habitat prediction • Tree Data abundance • Bird abundance • Climate • Environment • Forest density • Species traits SHIFT model Species colonization probabilities ModFacs • Biological factors • Disturbance factors • Model uncertainty Iverson et al. 2011, Ecosystems Tree & Bird Atlases DISTRIB + SHIFT Potential migration by 2100 DECISION SUPPORT FRAMEWORK Scoring system for tree species Multi-stage modelling scheme Current and future species management • Management guidelines • Implications & tools The role of climate in shaping vertebrate distributions Root 1988 Currie 1991 But there is also a strong habitat component for most species Therefore we use climate and individual tree species to build our 147 bird models Important to note when interpreting these models! The models are predicting potential suitable habitat by year 2100 – not where the species will be. The DISTRIB model does not account for biotic interactions, other human or natural disturbances. Climate Change Tree & Bird Atlas http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas Examples of species with projected habitat increases Prothonotary Warbler Low Emissions scenarios High ? Brown-headed Nuthatch http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas Examples of species with projected habitat decreases Black-throated Blue Warbler Low Emissions scenarios High ? Black-capped Chickadee http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas Species General trends of all 147 species across the eastern US 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Incidence change (Ratio) >2 1.2 - 2 Hadhi AVGhi AVGlo PCMlo 0.9 - 1.1 0.5 - 0.9 < 0.5 Mean Center Potential Movement Km (sd) PCMlo 109 (64.3) Avglo 142 (88.9) Avghi 210 (139.5) Matthews et al. 2011 Ecography Hadhi 212 (149.9) The Chicago ecosystem assessment provides one example of these data being summarized regionally to focus the results (Hellmann et al. 2010, J. Great Lakes Res.) Habitat Changes: Under high emissions • 130 species changes >=10% • With 76 declining • With 54 increasing Under low emission • 116 species changes >= 10% • 64 declining • 52 increasing Summer tanager Are these data being used?? The Goal: Identify strategies and approaches to climate change adaptation and mitigation Bridge the gap between scales of prediction management activities on National Forests interactions with the greater community Swanston et al. 2011 Sugar Maple Low ? High Modifying factors Many other factors (biological and disturbance) come in to play to determine more likely outcomes We rate biological (n=9) and disturbance (n=12) characteristics for positive or negative impacts Goal was to evaluate more realistic outcomes at regional and local levels The results from the multi-criteria framework can be applied to the results present today Red Maple: • Projected habitat declines • Characteristics suggest high adaptability Black Oak: • Projected habitat increases • Positive ModFac profile suggests it may be able to persist in harsh areas Balsam Fir: • Projected habitat declines • Negative ModFac • All metrics suggest it will likely face severe limits in eastern US Matthews et al. 2011, For. Ecol. Manag. Potential Changes for Tree Species The “Model Forest” Project Evaluated 73 species from the region Put in to 8 classes of impacts Class 1: extirpated (1 species) Class 2: large decrease (12 species) Class 3: small decrease (6 species) Class 4: no change (6 species) Class 5: small increase (4 species) Class 6: large increase (17 species) Class 7: new entry-high and low emissions (11 species) Class 8: new entry-high emissions (16 species) Score each species for modification factors to help managers interpret potential impacts and suggest adaptation strategies Class 1 Class 2 Class 3 (Losers) Class 4 (Stayers) Class 6 Class 5 (Gainers) (New Migrants) Class 8 Class 7 Large Decreasers (Cl. 2) Better Worse Overall habitat change for the 7 major species groups in N Wisconsin by GCM/emission Current Habitat species habitat total balsam fir 4.8 aspen 16.8 paper birch 6 jack pine 3.1 white and red pine 4.7 all oak 10.5 northern hardwood 17 % Change in Habitat PCMlo (mild) -3.6 -8.2 -3.3 -0.8 0 6.8 -3.1 Hadhi (harsh) -4.4 -14.3 -5.4 -1.5 -2.9 11.3 -10 Ecosystem Vulnerabilities The potential changes in species composition may thus lead to a number of ecosystem vulnerabilities: Lowland hardwood forests (presently dominated by black ash) will be disrupted from drying and especially the emerald ash borer, and probably converted to red maple Lowland conifer forests (e.g., balsam fir), may be stressed more by dry late summers, disrupting that entire ecosystem Several ecosystems with species that have been recently declining (e.g., hemlock, paper birch, white spruce) will likely continue to decline Vegetation changes will have significant effects on wildlife Swanston et al. 2011 A few final thoughts… Modeling potential responses of 134 tree and 147 birds species using multi-stage methodology Continues to provide new knowledge of species distributions and potential for change Carry the research results forward to ensure that it is management relevant and assumptions are communicated What species may be players: lists of species to evaluate? How might species get there? Do the species life history characteristics compliment or contradict the habitat changes? Must enter into an adaptive management framework moving forward: this includes monitoring to provide feedback loops. We are confronted with the challenge of understanding the response of ecological systems to changing landscapes. More than ever we need to consider how local management decisions fit into the distributions of target species. Thank you! Web site for most data presented today: Climate change atlases Species-environment data for 147 birds and 134 trees Pdfs of related papers www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas Acknowledgements • • • Thanks to USDA FS Northern Global Change Program for support US Forest Service Northern Research Station Ohio State University