Descriptor 3 for determining Good Environmental Status (GES) under the MSFD was defined as “Populations of all commercially exploited fish and shellfish are within safe biological limits, exhibiting a population age and size distribution that is indicative of a healthy stock”Directive 2008/56/EC, Annex I methodological standards are defined methods developed and agreed in the framework of European or international conventions Criterion 3.1 Level of pressure of the fishing activity • Primary indicator: Indicator 3.1.1 Fishing mortality (F) • Secondary indicator (if analytical assessments yielding values for F are not available): Indicator 3.1.2 Ratio between catch and biomass index (hereinafter ‘catch/biomass ratio’) Criterion 3.2 Reproductive capacity of the stock • Primary indicator: Indicator 3.2.1 Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) • Secondary indicator (if analytical assessments yielding values for SSB are not available): Indicator 3.2.2 Biomass indices Criterion 3.3 Population age and size distribution • Primary indicator: Indicator 3.3.1 Proportion of fish larger than the mean size of first sexual maturation • Primary indicator: Indicator 3.3.2 Mean maximum length across all species found in research vessel surveys • Primary indicator: Indicator 3.3.3 95% percentile of the fish length distribution observed in research vessel surveys • Secondary indicator: Indicator 3.3.4 Size at first sexual maturation Descriptor 3: Populations of all commercially exploited fish and shellfish are within safe biological limits, exhibiting a population age and size distribution that is indicative of a healthy stock. Criterion Primary indicator 3. 2 3. 1 Reproductive Fishing pressure capacity F SSB Ref level: FMSY Ref level: SSBMSY 3. 3 Population age and size distribution Prop of fish > mean size of first sexual maturation Mean maximum length across species 95% percentile of length distribution Secondary indicator Catch/Biomass ratio Biomass indices Size at first maturation Roadmap to the GES assessment process Selection of commercially exploited (shell)fish populations Stocks for which primary indicators and reference levels are available Species for which no reference levels are available Interpretation of GES Assessment of current status in relation to GES Approach Theoretical concepts, criteria, methodologies for: Selection of commercial species Stocks with analytical assessments Species/stocks with info from monitoring programmes 50°N 40°N 30°N Case Studies: 20°N 20°W 10°W 0° 10°E 20°E 30°E Regional Seas around Europe Baltic Sea North-east Atlantic Ocean Iceland Sea Norwegian Sea Bay of Biscay/Iberia Barents Sea Greater North Sea, incl. the Kattegat and the English Channel Baltic Sea North Sea Celtic Seas Celtic Seas Mediterranean Bay of Biscay and the Iberian Coast Macaronesia Mediterranean Sea Western Mediterranean Sea Adriatic Sea Black Sea Ionian Sea and the Central Mediterranean Sea Aegian-Levantine Sea Black Sea Synthesis: Different interpretations of GES Assessment of current status against GES Robust quantitative assessment Preliminary quantitative assessment Estimates of fishing mortality / exploitation (F) from catch curves (age / length data) Uncertainty increases Trends in catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) Analytical Trends based Trends, survey only % 38 10 39 Catch only 13 Dr Carl O’Brien 2012 Reduced quality and utility of advice for management The data available are inadequate to: estimate the current population size; and the catch resulting from fishing at a desired F. MSY ? – the maximum average longterm catch that may be taken from a fish stock under prevailing environmenta l conditions Advice on catches only? ICES’ MSY approach calls for a determination of the status of exploitation relative to FMSY and considerations of the stock trend. Without a radical change in approach … implies that approximately 60% of the 188 (158) stocks will have no useful scientific advice w.r.t. MSY Issues that ICES has not satisfactorily dealt with: Data-limited / model-poor stocks What is FMSY? What is the current stock exploitation? How should we manage future exploitation? Categorisation of stocks into one of seven basis types: 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) Data rich stocks (quantitative assessments) Trends/Ref points Negligible landings stocks Stocks with analytical assessments that are treated qualitatively Stocks for which survey indices (or unbiased CPUE) indicate trends Stocks for which reliable catch data are available for short timeseries Truly data-poor stocks (landings only) Stocks caught in minor amounts as by-catch Category 3:Stocks with analytical assessments that are treated qualitatively Requirements: Trends/Ref points relative management advice on the direction and relative scale of the changes required to achieve targets. Category 4: Stocks for which survey indices (or unbiased CPUE) indicate trends Requirements: the time series that should be used to determine the status of the stock and provide catch advice. Category 5: Stocks for which reliable catch data are available for short time-series - Under consideration(further assessments) What are the prospects for the future? On-going studies; What is FMSY? life history characteristics include, among other things, longevity, fecundity and recruitment variability What is the current stock exploitation? Harvest ratio proxies and survey (DCF / FSP) catch curves How should we manage future exploitation? simple trend-based rules (survey / catch)