The rise of North Sea hake: ecological impact and implications for fisheries management Alan Baudron1, Doug Speirs2, Mike Heath2, Chris McCaig2, Paul Fernandes1 1 University of Aberdeen 2 Strathclyde University European hake Spawning areas Merluccius merluccius Widely distributed: Mauritania to Norway Spawning from February to July (ICES, 2012) Little knowledge in northern areas Distribution Northern hake stock Northeast Atlantic: 2 large stock units Northern hake stock from Spain to Norway Assessment estimates for stock unit 5 surveys: North Sea (NS-IBTS): 19652012 West of Scotland (SWC-IBTS): 1985-2011 Ireland (IGFS): 2003-2008 Porcupine bank (SP-PORC): 2001-2011 Bay of Biscay (EVHOE): 19972010 Mean density estimates Large increase in density (x 4) in recent years, x 5 in North Sea Huge difference between Q1 and Q3 in the North Sea Density (kg/km2) Estimates for North Sea hake Northern hake survey biomass = mean density * area qsurvey = Northern hake survey biomass / Northern hake assessment biomass North Sea TSB = North Sea hake survey biomass * (1/qsurvey) Length at 50% maturity (L50) North Sea SSB = North Sea TSB > L50 North Sea recruitment = number of age 1 individuals North Sea hake stock assessment Biomass: increase by a factor 4 in quarter 1, a factor 8 in quarter 3 Slight increase in recruitment North Sea hake landings Large landings of North Sea hake in the 1950s Sudden increase previously occurred in North Sea North Sea hake length frequencies Difference between quarter 1 and quarter 3 More large individuals at quarter 3 Observation consistent through time Quarter 1 Quarter 3 UK hake catches (kg) 2005-2011 Increase in North Sea hake: the consequences North Sea quota share (tons) TAC North Sea hake CFP: relative stability 2010: 2941 tons of hake landed by Scottish vessels in the North Sea CFP reform: discard ban Hake “choke” species for North Sea demersal fisheries 1935 Belgium 28 Denmark 1119 Germany 128 France 248 Netherlands 64 UK 348 Conclusions Increase in North Sea hake: WHY? Fishing? Northern hake recovery plan since 2004 Environment? Hake recruitment variability impacted by environmental conditions (Sánchez & Gil, 2000) Something else? T°C Are hake here to stay? Situation different from the 1950s North Sea temperature increase Low cod biomass Hake migrations Temperature? Inflow? Prey? Little knowledge about hake in North Sea (spawning/feeding areas?) Implications for fisheries management Relative stability Quotas do not reflect the regional stock abundance Future work Ecosystem model: FishSUMS (Speirs et al., 2010) Assess consequences of hake increase on NS ecosystem Model North Sea fishery under different “hake scenarios” Ta! Funding: