ELECTRIC CARS – VEHICLES OF THE
FUTURE?
Patrick Plötz, Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe
S Ü D H e i d e l b e r g , N o v e m b e r 2 0 11
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Myth:
“ E l e c t r i c v e h i c l e s a r e u s e l e s s – t h e y c a n ’ t g o f a r. ”
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Myth:
“ E l e c t r i c v e h i c l e s a r e u s e l e s s – t h e y c a n ’ t g o f a r. ”
 Typical daily driving distances are short.
• Most (80%) of day-travels are
shorter than 60 km.
• Few (8 %) of day-travels are
longer than 130 km
Source: Mobilitätspanel, Fraunhofer ISI
 Plug-in-hybrid electric vehicles can also go long
distances
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Property
Gasoline vehicle
Range
> 700 km
Refueling
Frequency
Every 2 weeks
Refueling
Duration
3 minutes
Electric vehicles
Battery electric
Plug-in-Hybrid
vehicle
50 + 600 km
< 150 km
every day +
When necessary
3 minutes
+ 2 hours
Every 3 days or
30% every day
0.5 - 8 hours
Myth: “Electric vehicles can help integrating renewable
energies, but they need so much electricity.”
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Myth: “Electric vehicles can help integrating renewable
energies, but they need so much electricity.”
 Take 1 Million electric vehicles,
• giving on average 10 kWh = 10 GWh
= 10 minutes of the average German
electricity need
• Loading with 3,7 kW each = 3,7 GW
= 2.4% of installed German power
(155 GW in 2009)
Source: BDEW, Fraunhofer ISI
 Electricity need of 1 million vehicles:
Drawing: Heyko Stöber
• Driving 14 300 km per year (German average) and using 16 kWh/100 km
= 3 TWh/a = 0.5% of annual German electricity use
 Large fleet of electric vehicles offers some power but small capacity
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Myth:
“Electric vehicles need public charging points.”
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Myth:
“Electric vehicles need public charging points.”
 Charging at home: cheap & easy
100%
• The majority of car users has a
fixed place for his/her car
(either a garage or a place at
home)
80%
70%
+ in public
At home, at work, and in public regular
(3.7kW)
60%
• Even in larger cities (>100.000
At home, at work, and in public threephase
(11.1kW)
At home and at work threephase (11.1kW),
in public high power charging (43.6kW)
Series12
50%
At home and at work regular (3.7kW)
At home regular (3.7kW), at work threephase
(11.1kW)
+ at work
40%
30%
At home regular (3.7kW), at work threephase
(22.2kW)
At home and at work threephase (11.1kW)
24 kWh
At home and at work threephase (22.2kW)
20%
Series13
10%
Threephase current (400V, 16A, 11.kW)
Threephase current (400V, 32A, 22.2kW)
0%
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
Battery capacity (in kWh)
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inhabitants) only some people
(22% in Germany) have no
Source: Mobilitätspanel,
fixed parking
place Fraunhofer ISI
 Plug-in-hybrid electric vehicles can
also go long distances
Regular power outlet (230V, 16A, 3.7kW)
At home
Share of vehicles that can be operated as battery electrical vehicle
90%
44
48
52
56
60
 To start a mass market, no
expensive infrastructure needed
64
Overview
Electric cars – vehicles of the future?
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1
Introduction: Electric vehicle myths
2
Motivation: Do we need electric vehicles?
3
Past and Present of electric vehicles
4
The Future of eletric vehicles
5
Conclusion

A growing mobility demand faces limited
fossile resources
Growing
demand for oil
cannot be
covered
sustainably
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Source: Shell,
WBCSD
To a c h i e v e E u r o p e ‘ s c l i m a t e t a r g e t s , a d r a s t i c
reduction in transport CO2-emissions is needed
 The EU‘s long term goal is to
reduce GHG emissions by 80%
 Power production and road
transport have to become almost
CO2-free
 This is impossible with
efficiency gains in combustion
engines
 New technologies and concepts
are clearly needed.
 Electric vehicles powered by
renewable energies can
contribute significantly
Source: www.roadmap2050.eu
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Electric vehicles can reduce emissions and
noise in your local environment
 Electric vehicles locally produce
less noise and emissions
Diesel medium
 They create a calmer and cleaner
local environment
ICE medium
 But their production is very
energy consuming
ICE small
PHEV medium
Electric
vehicles
BEV small
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
External and environmental costs
electricty generation
vehicle production
vehicle use
fuel production
accidents
noise
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Source: Fraunhofer ISI
Overview
Electric cars – vehicles of the future?
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1
Introduction: Electric vehicle myths
2
Motivation: Do we need electric vehicles?
3
Past and Present of electric vehicles:
How do they work?
What do they cost?
Do we need special charging stations?
Are they “green”?
4
The Future of electric vehicles
5
Conclusion


The first road vehicle achieving a speed of
more than 100 km/h
The French electric vehicle
La jamais contente with 105 km/h in 1899
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Short History of electric vehicles
 Invention of electric vehicle 1834
 Large market shares around 1900
american car production by 1900
gasoline
electric
steam
0
500
1000
number of units
1500
2000
 First hybrid by Ferdinand Porsche in
1899
 Gasoline vehicles cheaper and faster
from 1920 until today
 Renewed interest in 1980s after oil
Thomas Edison with electric car in 1913
crises
Sources: Chan 2007, wikipedia
 Today‘s batteries allow longer ranges
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G e r m a n v e h i c l e s t o c k i n 2 0 11
 80 % of vehicles are passenger cars: 30 million gasoline, 11 million diesel
 Currently, 2300 Electric vehicles and 40,000 hybrids
Vehicles in Germany
trucks
4,43 Mio.
8,71%
Busses
76 Tsd.
0,15%
motorcycles
3,83 Mio.
7,52%
Source: Kraftfahrtbundesamt (2011),
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Others
0,26 Mio.
0,52%
Passenger cars
42,5 Mio.
83,616%
Hybrid
40 Tsd.
0,073%
Electric
2,3 Tsd.
0,005%
Gas
490 Tsd.
0,96%
gasoline
30,5 Mio.
60,0%
Diesel
11,3 Mio.
22,14%
How does an electric vehicle work?
 Battery electric vehicle:
Small number of main
components:
•
Electric motor
•
Large battery
•
AC/DC converter
•
Electronics...
 No oil or fuel tank
 No exhaust system (tail pipe etc.)
 Hybrid electric vehicle:
•
Small combustion engine
•
Small fuel tank
•
Electronics
 Fuel cell electric vehicle has an additional tank and fuel cell
 Electric vehicle ≈ several wheels and a plug
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Source: Bosch AG
The energy density of current batteries sets limits
to the use of electric vehicles
Quelle: GM, 2009
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Electric vehicles produced in 2010
 A few manufacturers are already producing electric vehicles
 Numbers are really tiny compared to world vehicle production of 78 million units in 2010
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When can we buy eletcric vehicles?
 Alternative fuel vehicles already available or announced for 2011 – 2014
by major manufacturers in the German market
Manufacturer
MERCEDES
Hybrid Gashybrid
Plug-in
Hybrid
Battery
electric
Fuel cell
vehicle
Total
5
1
4
1
11
2
3
9
5
8
7
7
1
2
6
1
1
4
2
1
3
1
2
3
1
2
3
TOYOTA
3
VW
3
1
RENAULT
BMW
HYUNDAI
CITROEN
PEUGEOT
AUDI
3
1
1
NISSAN
Simple hybrids
Total
already available
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20
2
5
Only some plug-in
hybrids announced
2
1
3
29
2
57electric
Many
battery
vehicles underway
Electric vehicles come in a broad variety
Sports cars
Plug-in hybrid
passenger car
Small electric vehicles
Battery LDVs
Off-road duty vehicle
Plug-in hybrid LDV
Elektroroller
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How much does an electric vehicle cost?
 Example for the total life cycle costs for a battery electric vehicle with average annual
Costs in cent per kilometer
German driving range (14000 km, no tax, 2015):
Maintenance
Battery costs
Vehicle
purchase
Fuel
Quelle: Fraunhofer ISI
 Long driving distances required to make BEVs economically attractive
 Battery and fuel costs are the main drivers for total cost of ownership (TCO)
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Support by the German government on
electric mobility
 Political actions:

No direct purchase support

Research funding: 2 million €

No car tax (below 50 gCO2/km)

low tax for commercial cars

Target: 10% of governmental vehicles
 Non-financial incentives

Use of bus lanes for EVs

Free city entry
Quelle: Regierungsprogramm Elektromobilität 2011
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1 million
by 2020
In the beginning, electric vehicles will
mainly target a niche market
Selection of Propulsion Technology - 2015
(in relation to mileage and share of city traffic)
Annual Mileage (in km)
17,500
 EVs only in some
segments profitable
 Attractive first user
segments
– Commuters
– Second-car users
– Full time employees
from areas with less
than 100,000 inhab.
 Potential of up to 4%
of car users (2015) in
existing infrastructure equivalent to 1.6 mn.
15,000
Battery Electric
Vehicle
12,500
10,000
Internal Combustion
Engine
7,500
5,000
0%
20%
40%
60%
Share of City Traffic
Source: Own calculations
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80%
100%
EVs are the most efficient propulsion
t e c h n o l o g y a n d c a n r e d u c e C O 2- e m i s s i o n s i n
transport
Efficiency and Emissions of Different Propulsion Technologies
Biofuels
BEV
(EU mix)
50
Biodiesel
(RME)
100
Battery Electric Vehicle
(Wind)
Plug-In Hybrid
(Wind)
Plug-In Hybrid
(EU mix)
Less emissions
Emissions in GHG-Equivalents (in g/km)
0
150
ICE
200
Hydrogen
Fuel Cell
250
Coal-toLiquid
300
More efficient
350
0%
20%
40%
60%
Efficiency (Well-to-Wheel Analysis)
Note: BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle; RME: Raps-Methyl-Ester
Source: Own calculations and LBST
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80%
100%
How „green“ are electric vehicles?
 The production of batteries for electric vehicles is very energy intense
 Depending on the electricity used, additional CO2 emissions from
electricity generation need to be taken into account
Conventional
vehicles
Electric
vehicles
GHG potential in tons CO2e
Vehicle
production
Battery
production
Additional
battery
Electricity
generation
 With electricity from renewable sources drastic reduction of CO2
emissions are possible
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Overview
Electric cars – vehicles of the future?
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1
Introduction: Electric vehicle myths
2
Motivation: Do we need electric vehicles?
3
Past and Present of electric vehicles:
How do they work?
What do they cost?
Do we need special charging stations?
Are they “green”?
4
The Future of electric vehicles
5
Conclusion



Market scenarios for Germany
35
Million vehicles
Electric vehicles expected
in 2020 (NPE, 2011)
30
5%
Szenarios I/IV
Nutzfahrzeuge
PHEV
25
45%
20
Dominance
BEV
50%
Referenzszenario
15
Energiekonzept
10
5
Pluralism
0
2020
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2030
2040
The future of alternative fuels – various
t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r d i ff e r e n t a p p l i c a t i o n s
Vehicle weight
high
challenges
2nd generation biofuels
Fuel cell vehicles
transportation
Long range
public transport
Public transport
Economy of fuel
Plug-in hybrids
City LDVs
Everyday use
Battery vehicle
2nd car
Economy of propulsion system
Energy density
acceptance
low
Electro cycle
Short trips (city)
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safety
distance
Long trips (highway)
Depending on market penetration, charging
infrastructure has to change
Grid Integration with Increasing Market Penetration
Charging
Infrastructure
Innovators´
Market
Niche Market
(e.g. commuters,
business clients)
Market
Penetration
Mass Market
Grid Integration
 Norms and
Infrastructure
Control
standards
 Mainly private
infrastructure
 Selective public
infrastructure to
support early
adoption
 Time-of-use rates
 Smart Metering
 Expansion of
semi- public
charging infrastr.
 Demand Side
Management
(Dynamic rates)
 Load shift
System Services
Source: Own visualization
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(negative supply
of balancing
power)
 Smart Grids
 Bi-directional
connection
 Load shift and
active load
leveling
Time
Conclusions
1
What are electric
vehicles?
 Electric vehicles use electric motors and batteries and/or fuel cells
 Many forms of hybrid vehicles are possible
2
How much do
electric vehicles
cost?
 They are more expensive to buy but cheaper to drive than current
conventional vehicles
 Special charging stations are required later
3
Are electric vehicle
green?
 Electric vehicles can significantly reduce global and local emissions,
but only when charged from renewable energy sources
 Their production is very energy intense
Are electric vehicles the
vehicles of the future?
 They can play an important role in transport and in reduction of CO2
emissions
 Other vehicle technologies can be become important too, especially
fuel cell vehicles
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Thank you
Special thanks to

Martin Wietschel

Fabian Kley

Till Gnann

Wolfgang Schade
Thank you for listening!
References:
Biere, D.; Dallinger, D.; Wietschel, M.: Ökonomische Analyse der Erstnutzer-von Elektrofahrzeugen, Zeitschrift für
Energiewirtschaft 02/2009, 173-183.
Wietschel, M., Kley, F. und Dallinger, D. : Eine Bewertung der Ladeinfrastruktur für Elektrofahrzeuge, Zeitschrift für die
gesamte Wertschöpfungskette Automobilwirtschaft, Bd. 12 (3), S. 33–41.
Kley, F., Dallinger, D. und Wietschel, M. : Assessment of future charging infrastructure, International Advanced
Mobility Forum, 9-10 März 2010, S. 1–7. Genf.
Kley, F., Entwicklung und Bewertung einer Strategie für den Aufbau einer Beladeinfrastruktur für Elektrofahrzeuge auf
Basis des Fahrverhaltens. Dissertation . Karlsruhe, 2011.
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