Dodge 2014
Construction Outlook
Cliff Brewis
Senior Director Operations
U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook
On balance, the pace of economic expansion remains lackluster.
GDP Pattern:
History
2010 2011 2012
2013
+2.5% +1.8% +2.8% +1.6%
Forecast
2014
+2.7%
Shape of Recovery:
•
•
•
Private Sector Dependency
Sequestration
Government Uncertainty
• Fed Tapering
• Improving Local Conditions
2
U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook
Employment growth has also been tepid.
3
State Performance: Employment
Three unique markets
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
4
U.S. Construction Market Outlook –
The Dodge Momentum Index offers insight on what’s ahead.
5
U.S. Construction Market Outlook –
Percent Change, 2009-2014, for Total Construction Starts and Major Sectors.
Residential
2013
Value
- Single Family
- Multifamily
Nonresidential
-
Stores
Offices
Hotels
Other Commercial
- Manufacturing
- Education
- Healthcare
- Other Institutional
Nonbuilding
41% of
Total Const.
32% of
Total Const.
27% of
Total Const.
-
Highways & Bridges
Environmental Public Works
Other Public Works
Electric Utilities
.
6
Los Angeles/Orange County: Single Family
Continued strong contribution
‘$000.00
7
Los Angeles/Orange County: Multi Residential
Continued strength.
‘$000.00
8
Los Angeles/Orange County: Retail
Modest recovery
‘$000.00
9
Los Angeles/Orange County: Hotel
Occupancy and revenue per room are up
‘$000.00
10
Los Angeles/Orange County: Health
We expect consolidations to limit construction
‘$000.00
11
Los Angeles/Orange County: Education
Bottomed out, but not recovering yet.
‘$000.00
12
Los Angeles/Orange County: Highways
Expected to soften after 2014
‘$000.00
13
Los Angeles/Orange County: Totals
Unquestionable Improvement
Structure
2007
2008
EDUC
$ 1,928,343
$ 3,255,471
HEALTH
$
393,261
$
384,757
HIGHWAY
$
801,558
$
771,075
HOTEL
$
746,149
$
168,785
2009
$ 1,183,684
68.8%
-63.6%
$ 1,084,142
-2.2%
-77.4%
$ 1,755,974
$
766,938
$
430,160
ONEFAM
$ 2,540,555
$ 1,480,877
PUB
$
112,603
$
170,393
RETAIL
$
662,245
$
740,580
SEWERS
$
645,512
$
622,493
WAREH
$
276,672
$
176,357
WATER
$
269,706
$
551,484
$
$
322,480
41,917
$
291,767
$
227,269
$
140,835
$
361,904
$
$
$
43,758
187,487
105,097
$
330,954
$
149,272
$
55,585
$
260,898
$
$
238,677
358,489
$
339,124
$
87,656
$
106,343
$
304,555
$
278,799
141,099
$
441,201
$
136,334
$
127,446
$
269,653
$ 1,363,349
$
356,031
$
392,469
71.6%
11.4%
40.8%
$ 1,847,767
35.5%
$
27.8%
$ 2,684,424
80,272
$
340,899
$
493,459
$
162,960
57.8%
$
260,729
31.2%
$
83,076
$
432,562
$
249,552
$
191,206
$
279,249
-43.1%
3.5%
-22.7%
26.9%
261.9%
19.8%
-49.4%
27.9%
-3.3%
$ 13,423,015
13.4%
561,973
$ 3,521,727
44.1%
$
55.5%
12.7%
899,660
-25.0%
30.1%
$ 11,832,592
$
16.8%
-60.6%
-11.5%
300,089
-16.1%
26.2%
$
91.3%
2.3%
$
5.0%
$
-52.2%
29.6%
-41.3%
$ 10,499,030
278,535
$ 1,862,355
2.5%
16.7%
807,351
51.0%
241.1%
-60.5%
$
445.4%
-1.4%
$
174,842
-2.3%
$ 1,816,763
2014
$ 1,205,727
-3.1%
$
-48.8%
14.6%
-34.3%
13.3%
214,915
$ 1,475,596
13.4%
$ 10,266,895
961,821
131.9%
-4.9%
-27.9%
$
4.4%
18.1%
$
365,822
-1.4%
$ 1,203,042
2013
$ 1,148,236
-0.7%
$
115.5%
-41.9%
-20.1%
-31.6%
518,713
$ 1,496,213
-63.5%
$ 9,064,543
984,876
51.8%
-60.6%
-34.4%
$
-34.8%
-35.1%
-36.3%
713,891
-5.0%
-14.4%
110,549
-3.6%
-14.8%
341,702
$
11.8%
$ 13,251,992
$
2012
$ 1,185,499
-40.8%
$
-69.4%
-25.0%
51.3%
$ 15,556,461
64,279
$ 1,267,419
-41.7%
TOTAL
999,188
-80.5%
-43.9%
104.5%
$
-61.9%
-35.3%
OFFICE
331,297
36.4%
$
2011
$ 1,193,546
70.4%
$
181.8%
$ 1,051,431
-3.8%
MULTI RES $ 2,713,135
2010
$ 2,016,495
17.3%
7.1%
‘$000.00
$ 13,946,086
3.9%
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QUESTIONS?
• Cliff Brewis
• Senior Director Operations
• McGraw-Hill Construction/Dodge
• 510.566.0913
• Cliff.brewis@mhfi.com
15