China’s Low Carbon Scenario under global 2 degree target
Kejun JIANG
Kjiang@eri.org.cn
Energy Research Institute, China
1
ERI, China
Keyword: Transition – mitigation to reach some climate change
targets
Emissions (GtC)
15
Category I
(< 400 ppm CO2)
Category II
(< 400-440 ppm CO2)
15
10
10
10
5
5
5
0
0
0
N=27
-5
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
N=19
-5
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Category III
(< 440-485 ppm CO2)
15
without neg.
emissions
with neg.
emissions
N=76
-5
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
2100
2095
2090
2085
2080
2075
2070
2065
2060
2055
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
1995
1990
坐标轴标题
CO2
8.00
7.00
L.A
6.00
Africa
5.00
M.E
4.00
S.E.Asia
CPA
3.00
EFSU
2.00
P-OECD
1.00
W-OECD
USA
0.00
3
CO2 排放量
4000
Is This
Real?
Feasible?
3500
百万吨碳
3000
2500
2000
Is This
Real?
Feasible?
Baseline
LC
1500
ELC
1000
2度情景
500
0
2000
2005 2010 2020
2030 2040 2050
Go much behind the pictures
Present in detail for key factors
Join modeling forums/workshops/projects
Make study on key factors: economy structure change, carbon
pricing, roadmap for new technologies, CCS etc.
Make data transparency
Publication/public available
Keep a good modeling research team for long time
What’s the future of China’s low carbon policy: key factors
• Economic structure optimization policies
• Energy efficiency policies
• Renewable energy/nuclear power generation oriented policies
• CCS
• Low carbon consumption/ lifestyle
• Land use emission reduction policies: so far relatively poor
• Climate change target: China is key part of that
• Can we pay for it? Cost and benefit
6
Investment by industrial sectors
建筑业
工业分部门投资
自来水的生产和供应业
煤气的生产和供应业
蒸汽热水生产供应业
180000
电力生产供应业
其他工业
仪器仪表文化办公用机械
160000
电气机械及器材、电子及通信设备制造业
交通运输设备制造业
140000
普通机械、专用设备制造业
金属制品业
有色金属
120000
黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业
亿元
非金属矿物制品业
100000
橡胶制品业, 塑料制品业
化学纤维制造业
医药制造业
80000
化学原料及制品制造业
炼焦业
60000
石油加工
印刷业记录媒介的复制, 文教体育用品制造业
造纸及纸制品业
40000
木材加工及竹藤棕草制品业、家具制造业
服装皮革及其他纤维制品制造
纺织业
20000
烟草加工业
食品饮料加工、制造业
0
2005
非金属矿采选业, 其他矿采选业, 木材及竹材采运业
2010
2020
2030
年份
2040
2050
有色金属矿采选业
黑色金属矿采选业
天然气开采业
石油
煤炭采选业
农业
7
Products output in major sectors, Low Carbon and ELC
Unit
Million
Steel
Million
Cement
Million
Glass
cases
Million
Copper
Ammonia Million
Ethylene Million
Soda Ash Million
Casutic Million
Million
Paper
FertilizerMillion
Aluminum Million
Million
Paper
Million
Calcium carbide
ton
ton
ton
ton
ton
ton
ton
ton
ton
ton
ton
ton
2005
355
1060
2020
610
1600
2030
570
1600
2040
440
1200
2050
360
900
399
650
690
670
580
2.6
8.51
5.1
14.67
12.64
62.05
52.2
7.56
46.3
8.5
7
16
7.2
23
24
110
61
34
50
10
7
16
7
24.5
25
115
61
36
50
8
6.5
15
6.5
23.5
25
120
61
36
50
7
4.6
12
5.5
22
24
120
61
33
45
4
8
Unit energy use for key products, LCS Scenario
Unit
Steel
Cement
Glass
Kgce/t
Kgce/t
Kgce/Weight
Cases
Brick
Ammonia
Ethylene
Soda Ash
Casutic
Calcium carbide
Copper
Aluminum
Paper
Electricity fossil fuel
Kgce/万块
Kgce/t
Kgce/t
Kgce/t
Kgce/t
Kgce/t
Kgce/t
kWh/t
Kgce/t
Gce/kWh
2005
760
132
2020
650
101
24
18
685
1645
1092
340
1410
1482
1273
14320
1047
350
466
1328
796
310
990
1304
1063
12870
840
305
2030
2040
564 554
86 81
14.5 13.8
433
1189
713
290
890
1215
931
12170
761
287
421
1141
693
284
868
1201
877
11923
721
274
2050
545
77
13.1
408
1096
672
279
851
1193
827
11877
686
264
9
2050年的低碳住宅
太阳能利用
舒适和节能
生态生活教育
光伏电池
(25-47% 的家庭拥有屋顶光伏电池，
转换效率接近30%
减少10-20% 能源需求
屋顶植被
高效照明
【如 LED照明】
太阳热利用
普及率: 20-60%
减少50%照明需求，
普及率 100%
（目前 6%）
能源检测系统
高效绝热
（家用电器)
减少 60% 采暖需求,
普及率70%
超高效空调
燃料电池
COP =8,
普及率 100%
待机电源耗电
降低1/3 ，
普及率100%
热泵采暖
普及率 0-20%
COP＝5
普及率 30-70%
向公众提供经济和环境
信息促使大家成为
低碳消费
高效家用电器
减少能源需求，支持舒适和安全生活方式
10
5
Transport, Low carbon scenario
Family car ownership, per 100HH
Family car annual travel distance, km
Average engin size of family cars, litter
Fuel efficiency of car, L/100km
Share of MRT in total traffic volume, %
Share of Biofuel, %
Share of electric car, %
Share of fuel cell car, %
Urban
Rural
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
3.37
0.08
9500
1.7
9.2
0.011
1.10%
0%
0%
14
0.2
9500
1.6
8.9
0.016
1.30%
0.12%
0%
36
8
9300
1.6
7.1
0.025
4.1%
3.2%
0.80%
65
38
8635
1.6
5.9
0.046
7.70%
6.80%
1.60%
77
70
8300
1.5
4.8
0.1
12%
12.5%
4.70%
78
90
7480
1.4
4.1
0.21
13%
19.8%
7.90%
11
Rapid bus: using existing rapid road
Power Generation
12000
Bio
10000
TWh
Solar
8000
Wind
6000
Nulcear
Hydro
4000
N.Gas
2000
Oil fired
Coal fired
0
2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
CCS future
120
100
IGCC-Fuel Cell
IGCC
US-Critical
Super Critical
Large Coal Unit
Samll Coal
%
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2005
2010
2020
Year
2030
2040
2050
14
NOx Emission in China, ELC scenario
SO2 Emission
16.0
30
14.0
25
12.0
BaU
15
LC
10
10.0
Mt
MtSO2
20
ELC
8.0
Other
6.0
Power generation
4.0
5
2.0
0
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
0.0
2050
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
PM2.5 Emission
6.0
5.0
BaU
LowCarbon
Mton
4.0
3.0
Other
2.0
Power generation
1.0
Mercury Emission
0.0
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
600.0
2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
500.0
400.0
ton
1000ton
Black Carbon Emission in China
300.0
Other
200.0
Power generation
100.0
15
0.0
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
A Snapshot of Selected China Energy Options Today:
Climate and Energy Security Impacts and Tradeoffs in 2025
Bubble size corresponds to incremental energy provided or
avoided in 2025. The reference point is the “business as
usual” mix in 2025. The horizontal axis includes
sustainability as well as traditional aspects of sufficiency,
reliability, and affordability. The vertical axis illustrates
lifecycle greenhouse gas intensity. Bubble placements are
based on quantitative analysis and ERI expert judgment.
Industry
Industry
Efficiency
Efficiency
Power Sector (this size corresponds to 40 billion kWh) by
comparing low energy scenario and BaU
Power Sector (this size corresponds to 40 billion kWh) by
comparing low energy scenario and policy BaU
Nuclear
Nuclear
Transport Sector (this size corresponds to 200 thousand
barrels of oil per day) by comparing low energy scenario
and BaU
Transport Sector (this size corresponds to 200 thousand
Liquefied
barrels of oil per day) by comparing policy BaU scenario
Natural Gas (LNG)
and BaU
Clean Coal
Imports
Reduce
Energy
Security
For specific details on the assumptions
underlying the options on this
chart, go to www.wri.org/usenergyoptions
Building
Efficiency
Positive Climate
Characteristics
Corn Ethanol
Vehicle Fuel
Efficiency
Standard
Solar
PV
Wind
Biodiesel
Ultra-Super Critical
(IGCC) with CO2
Capture
Hydro
Hydro
Plug-In
Hybrids
CO2 -Enhanced Oil
Recovery
Oil
Imports
Business
As Usual
In 2025
Gas-to-Liquids
Biomass
Power
Cellulosic
Ethanol
Increase
Energy
Security
Expanded Domestic
Oil Production
Coal-to-Liquids
(with carbon capture)
Coal-to-Liquids
(no carbon
capture)
Revised 7/10/2008
Negative Climate
Characteristics
16
Water consumption and greenhouse gas emission
of energy generation technologies
Hydro (dam)
Water consumption (m 3 /MWh)
7
Geothermal
500,000
MWh/yr
This size = 100,000 MWh/yr
1,000,000
MWh/yr
5
Close-loop solar thermal
Close-loop nuclear
3
Close-loop USC
with CCS
Close-loop SC with CCS
Close-loop SC
Open-loop nuclear
1
Open-loop IGCC
Open-loop SC with CCS
Close-loop IGCC with CCS
Open-loop
IGCC with
CCS
Open-loop
USC with CCS
Close-loop USC
Close-loop NGCC
Close-loop NGCC with CCS
Dry SC
with CCS
Open-loop NGCC with CCS
Open-loop
NGCC
Dry solar thermal
-350
-150
Wind
(run-of-river)
Hydro 50
-1
Energy efficiency
for buildings
Top 1000 companies energy efficiency program
Dry USC with CCS
Solar PV
Dry NGCC with CCS
250
450
Close-loop
subcritical
Close-loop
IGCC
Open-loop
subcritical
Open-loop USC
Dry NGCC
650
Greenhouse gas emission (Kg CO2 /MWh)
850
1050
Dry USC
Open-loop SC
Dry SC
-3
17
Dry
subcritical
No.
1
28 key technologies in the
enhanced low carbon
scenario in China
Sector
Industry
technology
2
3
4
Transport
5
6
7
8
9
Building
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
Power
generation
Technology
High
efficiency
equipment
Description
energy High efficiency furnace,
kiln, waste heat recovery
system,
high efficiency
process
technologies,
advanced electric motor
New
manufacture
process technology
for cement and steel
CCS
In cement, steel making,
refinery,
ethylene
manufacture
Super high efficiency Advanced diesel
hybrid
diesel vehicle
engine
Electric car
Fuel cell car
High
efficiency 30%
higher
energy
aircraft
efficiency
Bio-fuel aircraft
Super high efficiency With COP>7
air-conditioner
LED lighting
In house renewable Solar PV/Wind/Solar hot
energy system
water and space heating
Heat pumps
High
isolation
building
High
efficiency
electric appliance
IGCC/PolyWith efficiency above 55%
Generation
IGCC/Fuel cell
With efficiency above 60%
On shore Wind
Off shore wind
Note
Nearly
market
in
Mature
Mature
Mature
before 2030
Mature
Mature
before 2020
Solar PV
Solar Thermal
th
4
Generation
Nuclear
Advanced NGCC
With efficiency above 65%
Biomass IGCC
CCS
in
power
generation
Alternative fuels Second generation
bio-ethanol
Bio-diesel
Vehicles, ships, vessels
Grid
Smart grid
Circulating
Recycle,
reuse,
tecnologies
reducing
material
use
18
Can we do it: Peak before 2025?
• Economic structure will change soon, pushing by policy or
wait until market decide(this will cause big problem for low
capacity utilization)
• Technology is ready
• Economic ability is getting much stronger to pay for low
carbon development
• Global target need us move faster
• Low carbon development is getting to be a main stream in
China
19
工艺品及其他制造业
废弃资源和废旧材料回收加工业
电力、煤气及水生产和供应业
电力、热力的生产和供应业
燃气生产和供应业
水的生产和供应业
建筑业
交通运输、仓储和邮政业
批发、零售业和住宿、餐饮业
其他行业
生活消费
仪器仪表及文化、办公用机械制造业
家具制造业
造纸及纸制品业
印刷业和记录媒介的复制
文教体育用品制造业
石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业
化学原料及化学制品制造业
医药制造业
化学纤维制造业
橡胶制品业
塑料制品业
非金属矿物制品业
黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业
有色金属冶炼及压延加工业
金属制品业
通用设备制造业
专用设备制造业
交通运输设备制造业
电气机械及器材制造业
通信设备、计算机及其他电子设备制造业
农副食品加工业
食品制造业
饮料制造业
烟草制品业
纺织业
纺织服装、鞋、帽制造业
皮革、毛皮、羽毛(绒)及其制品业
木材加工及木、竹、藤、棕、草制品业
采掘业
煤炭开采和洗选业
石油和天然气开采业
黑色金属矿采选业
有色金属矿采选业
非金属矿采选业
其他采矿业
农、林、牧、渔业
分部门能源消费量, Energy demand by sector, 1995-2010
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
1995
20000
2000
2005
10000
2006
2007
0
2008
2009
2010
Investment in Energy Industry in China
Energy Expenditures in China
14000
300000
10^8Yuan
10000
8000
BaU
250000
HLC
200000
6000
HELC
4000
LLC
10^8Yuan
12000
BaU
150000
HLC
100000
2000
50000
0
0
HELC
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Year
GDP Loss, %
10^8 Yuan
Addtional Investment in end use sectors in ELC
6.00%
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
5.00%
650ppm
4.00%
550ppm
3.00%
450ppm
2.00%
Per Capita
1.00%
Industry
Transport
Building
Total
Carbon Intensity
0.00%
Year
-1.00%
2010
2020
2030
2050
2075
2100
21
Good News: Rapid GDP growth could provide strong support
• By 2015, GDP in China could reach 75trillion Yuan(in current
value)
• Newly added accumulated GDP is 450 Trillion Yuan
• Cumulated GDP is 860 Trillion Yuan
• All the investment need in all modeling study is much small
22
What is the role of technologies in
the mitigation?
Technology learning curve
1.2
Fuel Cell IGCC
1
Hydrogen Car
Index, 2005=1
Poly-Generation
Solar Thermal Power
0.8
PV
4th Generation Nuclear
0.6
Off shore wind
on shore wind
Biomass Power
0.4
Advanced NGCC
Electic Car
0.2
CCS
Solar 2010
0
Wind 2010
2005
2010
2020
Year
2030
2050
CCS-PostC
CCS-Enduse
LED Lighting
Policy roadmap: Super high efficiency air conditioner
• Efficiency Standard: COP, MEPS
• Government Planning
• Subsidy
Start COP
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2009
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
24
四、影响电动汽车发展的主要制约因素分析
4. Analysis Major Constraints Factors

3.3 电动汽车实现经济性的趋势分析 Trend Analysis on EVs
Technology learning curve
1.2
Fuel Cell IGCC
1
Hydrogen Car
Index, 2005=1
Poly-Generation
Solar Thermal Power
0.8
PV
4th Generation Nuclear
0.6
Off shore wind
on shore wind
Biomass Power
0.4
Advanced NGCC
Electic Car
0.2
CCS
Solar 2010
0
Wind 2010
2005
2010
2020
Year
2030
2050
CCS-PostC
CCS-Enduse
LED Lighting
By 2020, Wind 200GW to
250GW, Solar 50WG
Price: US$38000
Subsidy: US$15000(Shanghai), no need to apply number
plate(cost US$10000)
US$18000(Beijing), no need to apply number plate(By
Oct. 2012, 1.1 million people apply for 20000number
plates per month),
27
Primary Energy Demand in Beijing
160.0
140.0
120.0
Mtce
100.0
BaU
80.0
Policy Scenario
60.0
Ehanced Policy
40.0
20.0
0.0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Peak CO2 emission by 2015, to be a low carbon city by 2030,
comparable with Tokyo, and Shanghai, Tianjin are thinking in
similar way
Renewable Energy
• Renewable Energy Planning 2006: wind 30GW, Solar 2GW by
2020
• 2009 Energy Bureau: Wind 80WG
• 2010 Energy Planning: Wind 150 GW, Solar 20GW by 2020
• Now: Wind 200GW to 250GW, Solar 50WG
• Based on the conclusion from Chinese Academy for
Engineering, grid in China could adopt these renewable energy
power generation in short term.
29
Natural Gas Scenarios
• In 2010,Natural Gas use 107.2BCM, while 12.2BCM imported.
• In our low carbon scenario: by 2030, 370BCM
• NEA’s planning: 260BCM by 2015/230BCM
30