Dale W. Jorgenson (Harvard University)
Koji Nomura (Keio University)
Jon D. Samuels (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
The Third World KLEMS Conference Tokyo, Japan, May 19-20, 2014.
Intermediate Demand
JP
1…n
Indirect Tax
Consumption Tax
Other Value added
Output
1
ｎ
1
ｎ
1
ｎ
…
Subsidies
ｎ
…
(18 countries)
1
…
Duties
ｎ
…
China
1
…
Duties
ｎ
…
Freight &
Insurance
1
…
US
1…n
…
JP
US
Final Demand
JP
US
Export to
RoW
output
Sources
Target and
Classification
Price
Evaluation
Domestic goods
／Imports
Eurostat-OECD
FD, ICP basic heading
Purchaser
inc. Imports
Energy Prices & Taxes (IEA)
Coal, crude oil, LNG,
electricity, gas
Purchaser
Inc. Imports
Consumer Price Comparison
Survey (METI)
About 100 consumer
goods & services
Purchaser
inc. Imports
Intermediate Goods Price
Comparison Survey (METI)
About 200 products as
intermediate inputs
Purchaser
(Producer, partly)
inc. Imports
PPP Survey Committee (METI)
About 100 Products
Producer
Domestic
Transportation Service Price
(MLIT)
Transportation
Purchaser
Domestic
Ppc(I)i
P di
P di
Housing,Construction Price
(MLIT)
Building & Const.
Producer (Cost)
Domestic
P di
Foods and Restaurant
Price(MAFF)
Foods and Restaurant
Purchase
inc. Imports
Mobile Phone Price （MPT）
Communication
Purchaser
Domestic
Woods Products Price (MAFF)
Woods Products
Purchaser
inc. Imports
Ppc(H)i
Ppdi
Ppc(H)i
Ppci
Ppdi
Ppc(I)i
（Japanese Yen/US Dollar）
400
(Average Exchange Rate)
350
PPP for GDP-Expenditure Based
(Eurostat-OECD)
300
250
200
150
100
PPP for GDP-Production Based
(Our Estimate)
50
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: The PPP for GDP-Production Based is defined as a measure of trans-log index of industry-level PPPs for value
added. This is the first estimate based on the 2005 benchmark estimates of PPPs, which is calculated in May 2014 by
Nomura, Miyagawa, Shirane, and Okamoto at the RIETI Project.
（Japanese Yen/US Dollar）
700
Energy
600
500
400
300
200
100
(Average Exchange Rate)
Material
Output
Capital
Service
Labor
0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
Source: Our estimates in Jorgenson, Nomura, and Samuels (2014).
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Price Level Index for Value Added
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2.3
5.2
0%
2.5%
4.Foods
1.3%
12.Petroleum and Coal Products
1.1%
1.1%
0.8%
1.1
30.Finance and Insurance
0.8%
1.1
3.Construction
0.5%
1.0
35.Public Administration
0.4%
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.1
15.Metal Products
0.3%
10.Printing and Publishing
0.3%
2.Mining
0.3%
27.Communications
0.1%
1.5
24.Air Transportation
0.1%
1.5
8.Furniture and Fixture
0.1%
6.Apparel and Leather Products
0.1%
1.7
1.2
1.5
22.Rail Transportation
0.1%
5.Textile
0.1%
1.1
26.Other Trans and Storage
0.0%
1.1
20.Other Transportation Equipment
0.0%
1.1
23.Water Transportation
0.9
7.Woods and Related Products
0.9
13.Stone, Clay, Glass
0.0%
0.0%
-0.1%
9.Paper and Pulp
-0.1%
0.9
16.Machinery
-0.2%
0.8
21.Misc Manufacturing
-0.2%
0.8
11.Chemical Products
-0.2%
0.7
18.Electrical Equipment
-0.3%
0.8
32.Education
-0.4%
14.Primary Metal
-0.5%
0.7
17.Computer and Electronic Products
-0.6%
0.7
25.Road Transportation
-0.6%
0.5
1.0
4%
1.7%
1.Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery
2.3
0.8
2%
3.9%
36.Household
1.1

-2%
28.Electricity and Gas
3.6

-4%
31.Real Estate
1.5
PPP for GDPoutput
based=116.5
PPP for GDPexpenditure
based=129.6
(Eurostat-OECD)
Exchanger
rate=110.2
-6%
29.Wholesale and Retail
1.4

Industry Contribution
34.Other Services
0.4
19.Motor Vehicles
0.4
33.Medical Care
-0.8%
-1.4%
-4.6%
1.4
(U.S. in 1955=1.0)
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
U.S.
1985
Japan
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
Non-Mnf
Mnf
TFP Gap
1995
2000
0.6
0.5
0.4
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
2005
2010
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
TFP
0.3
Labor Quality Gap
0.2
Capital deepening
0.1
Labor Productivity Gap
0.0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
TFP
0.6
Labor Quality Gap
0.4
Capital deepening
0.2
Capital Productivity Gap
0.0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Industry Contribution
TFP gap
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.2
1.2
1.8
-5
-3
-1
19.Motor Vehicles
1.2
32.Education
0.6
1.1
14.Primary Metal
0.4
1.1
27.Communications
0.3
1.0
17.Computer and Electronic Products
0.1
1.0
25.Road Transportation
0.1
1.0
18.Electrical Equipment
0.1
1.0
9.Paper and Pulp
0.0
1.0
23.Water Transportation
0.0
0.0
7.Woods and Related Products
0.0
1.0
13.Stone, Clay, Glass
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.7
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.0
5.Textile
-0.1
21.Misc Manufacturing
-0.1
24.Air Transportation
-0.1
20.Other Transportation Equipment
-0.1
8.Furniture and Fixture
-0.1
6.Apparel and Leather Products
-0.1
16.Machinery
-0.1
22.Rail Transportation
-0.1
26.Other Trans and Storage
-0.2
11.Chemical Products
-0.3
35.Public Administration
-0.3
2.Mining
-0.3
10.Printing and Publishing
-0.5
15.Metal Products
-0.6
1.Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery
-0.7
-1.3
12.Petroleum and Coal Products
0.6
0.9
-1.3
3.Construction
-1.6
28.Electricity and Gas
0.6
-1.6
4.Foods
0.7
0.8
0.9
-2.0
30.Finance and Insurance
-2.0
34.Other Services
0.8
31.Real Estate
0.8
29.Wholesale and Retail
5
4.1
36.Household
0.8
3
33.Medical Care
1.0
1.0
1
-2.6
-4.6
Industry Contribution
TFP gap
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.2
1.5
1.2
1.8
-7
-3
-1
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.2
1.1
14.Primary Metal
0.7
0.2
18.Electrical Equipment
0.2
27.Communications
0.0
25.Road Transportation
0.0
9.Paper and Pulp
20.Other Transportation Equipment
0.0
0.0
13.Stone, Clay, Glass
0.0
0.8
5.Textile
0.8
7.Woods and Related Products
-0.1
6.Apparel and Leather Products
-0.1
8.Furniture and Fixture
-0.1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.7
-0.1
22.Rail Transportation
-0.2
26.Other Trans and Storage
-0.2
23.Water Transportation
-0.2
24.Air Transportation
-0.2
0.8
10.Printing and Publishing
-0.4
0.9
21.Misc Manufacturing
-0.4
11.Chemical Products
-0.5
0.9
0.8
15.Metal Products
-0.5
0.8
1.Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery
-0.5
0.7
1.0
-0.7
12.Petroleum and Coal Products
-0.7
16.Machinery
-0.7-0.7
0.9
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.7
-0.7
34.Other Services
0.8
1.0
0.7
2.Mining
0.8
0.8
35.Public Administration
17.Computer and Electronic Products
-0.9
3.Construction
-1.1
28.Electricity and Gas
-1.6
4.Foods
-1.7
-2.1
31.Real Estate
-2.9
30.Finance and Insurance
29.Wholesale and Retail
5
4.6
32.Education
1.0
0.7
3
19.Motor Vehicles
1.0
0.7
1
33.Medical Care
36.Household
1.0
0.9
-5
-6.1
11.Chemical Products
1.4
1.2
14.Primary Metal
1.2
(US)
16.Machinery
1.6
1.4
1.0
1.2
1.0
0.8
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.4
(Japan)
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
17. Computer and Electronic Products
25
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
18. Electrical Equipment
1.2
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
1985
1995
2005
19.Motor Vehicles
1.6
1.4
1.0
20
1955
2005
1.2
15
0.8
1.0
0.6
0.8
10
0.6
0.4
0.4
5
0.2
0
0.2
0.0
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
0.0
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
1955
1965
1975
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1.Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery
(US)
1.2
3.Construction
27.Communications
2.5
1.0
2.0
0.8
1.5
(Japan)
0.6
1.0
0.4
(TFP Level in the U.S. in 1955=1.0)
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
29. Wholesale and Retail
2.5
1955
1.2
1965
1975
1985
1995
30.Finance and Insurance
1975
1985
1995
2005
1985
1995
2005
3.0
2.5
0.8
1.5
1965
34. Other Service
3.5
1.0
2.0
1955
2005
2.0
0.6
1.5
1.0
0.4
0.5
0.0
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
1.0
0.2
0.5
0.0
0.0
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
1955
1965
1975