NYC Emergency Responders:
An Analysis on FDNY Response Times
By: LT Jason McKeown
& LT Annette Feliciano-Ramos
Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Background Story/Problem Statement
Network Model
Method
Formulation
Results
Analysis
Conclusions
World Trade Center Attacks
• FDNY Response
– 200+ Units
• Combined companies
– First 3 Hours
•
•
•
•
121 Engines (61%)
62 Ladders (43%)
27 Chiefs (47%)
Lead to management
difficulties
– City Wide Coverage
Maintained
• Avg Response time:
5.5min
• FDNY Losses
– 343 Fire Fighters
– 98 Vehicles
Problem Statement
Evaluate fire department city wide response for a
catastrophic high rise fire with the presence of degraded
infrastructure.
Why?
• Construction is currently
underway to build the new
“One World Trade Center”
building.
• Creates a target for future,
possibly more sophisticated,
terrorist attacks.
• Attacking infrastructure to
impede emergency
response is a possibility.
FDNY Structure
• New York City
– Consists of 5 Boroughs
•
•
•
•
•
Manhattan
The Bronx
Brooklyn
Queens
Staten Island
– Connected by bridge and
tunnel network.
• Brooklyn Bridge
• JFK Bridge
• Etc.
– Emergency Response
Strength
•
•
•
•
•
15,870 Responders
52 Battalions
251 Stations
198 Engines
143 Ladders
•
FDNY Structure
• Fire Commissioner (Civilian)
• Overall authority in NYC
• Chief of Department
• Highest ranking fire fighter
• Chief of Fire Operations
• Responsible for fire fighting
efforts throughout the city
• Borough Chiefs
• Responsible for fire fighting
efforts in their respective
Boroughs
• Division Chief
• Battalion Chief
• Captain (Fire Station Commander)
Network Model
• Nodes (254)
–
–
–
–
Start Node
Fire Houses
Bridges
WTC (destination)
• Edges (1289)
– Start to Fire Houses
– Fire House to Bridge Arcs
– Bridge to Bridge Arcs
• Data
– Avg Response Times
– Fire House Locations
– Fire House Capacities
– http://nycopendata.socrata.com/
Assumptions
• Borough response times are homogenized.
• FDNY response is contained within NYC
boarders.
• All non-attacked bridges are currently
available for transit.
• Responding Fire Houses utilize all resources
available.
• Response is instantaneous (no response lag).
Bronx
Manhattan
Queens
Brooklyn
Staten Island
Bronx
Manhattan
Staten Island
Queens
Brooklyn
New York City
Staten
Island
Staten
Island
Staten
Island
Brooklyn
Manhattan
Bridge
Williamsburg
Bridge
Brooklyn
Bridge
Brooklyn
Brooklyn
Bronx Whitestone Bridge
Throgs Neck Bridge
Queens
Bronx Whitestone Bridge
Throgs Neck Bridge
Queensborough
Bridge
Queens
Bronx Whitestone Bridge
Queens
Bronx
Throgs Neck
Bridge
Bronx Whitestone Bridge
Bronx
Throgs Neck
Bridge
Bronx Whitestone Bridge
Bronx
Manhattan
Manhattan
WTC
Manhattan
WTC
New York City
New York City
Bridges to WTC
Min Cost Flow
• Purpose: Minimize the average response times of
emergency responders given a prerequisite number
of units. (ex: 50 Fire Stations Responding).
– Attacks on the network are aimed at vital nodes that
provide connections to other boroughs
Manhattan Isolation
(# attacks > # bridges)
Manhattan Isolation
1000
Avg Time (min)
100
10
Avg Time
1
0.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Req'd Responders
Manhattan contains 48 Fire Stations. Thus for a situation where 49
responders are required, FDNY Manhattan would be overwhelmed if they
were to receive no outside assistance.
Attacking the Network (49-198 Req’d)
Operator Resilience Curve
10000
Avg Time (min)
1000
100
10
49 Req'd
83 Req'd
148 Req'd
153 Req'd
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
198 Req'd
# of Attacks
15-16: Isolation of Manhattan
6-7: Isolation of Manhattan & The Bronx
4-5: Isolation of Manhattan, The Bronx, and Queens
3-4: Isolation of Manhattan, The Bronx, Queens, and Brooklyn. This also
removes the need for Staten Island.
Conclusions
• To Overwhelm the FDNY
– Requires another 9/11 type attack.
• Massive response requires manpower and
resources
– Requires isolation of the borough
• Level of sophistication would be very high
• Would not go unnoticed
• Extensive bridge network needs to be defeated.
Future Research
• Determine Fire House
dispatch procedures to
determine individual
node capacities.
• Obtain actual list of
dispatched Fire Houses
and those that selfdispatched.
Image credit: Joe Woolhead
Courtesy of: Silverstein Properties
Taken: September 08, 2011
Questions