“make” super session Wednesday, May 29, 2013 Scla annual executive business forum OPENING REMARKS & INTRODUCTIONS Michael Jacobs Chief Logistics Officer Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Interactive S&OP Panel Discussion Facilitator: Michael Jacobs, Chief Logistics Officer, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Panelists: Jeff Metersky, VP Sales, Inventory and Operations Planning (SIOP) Practice, Chainalytics Jason Reiman, Vice President, Global Logistics Excellence, The Hershey Company Rahquel Purcell, Director Global Supply Chain Innovation, Procter & Gamble Rafal Porzucek, Associate Director Strategic Demand and Supply Integration Projects, Global Operations, Procter & Gamble Dr. Nada R. Sanders, Iacocca Chair and Professor, Lehigh University Sales & Operations Planning Dr. Nada R. Sanders Iacocca Chair and Professor Lehigh University WHAT IS SALES & OPERATIONS PLANNING (S&OP)? • A business management process intended to match supply and demand through functional collaboration. • A process through which the executive leadership team achieves strategic focus, functional alignment, and synchronization across the entire organization. 5 WHAT IS THE OBJECTIVE OF S&OP? •Objective is to arrive at a business “Game Plan” to help manage and allocate resources to meet strategic objectives. •Ensures that tactical plans of all business functions are aligned and support the business plan. S&OP ALIGNS ALL FUNCTIONS ON ONE PLAN STRATEGIC PLAN BUSINESS PLAN SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING (S&OP) OPERATIONS PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT FINANCE HR New Product Budget Plans Master Schedule Development Reporting & Milestones & Plans Accounting People Inventory Schedule Training Production Plan Capital Expenditure Plans Skills Needs SALES & MARKETING Aggregate Sales Plan Key Accounts Territories “Hard” Benefits of S&OP • • • • Higher customer service levels Lower inventories More stable production/service rates Faster and more controlled new product launches • Reduced obsolescence • Shorter customer lead times THE S&OP PROCESS MONTHLY CYCLE STEP 1: Generation of Month-End Reports STEP 5: STEP 2: Executive S&OP Meeting Demand Planning COMMUNICATE STEP 4: STEP 3: Alignment Meeting Supply Planning 9 KEYS TO SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION 1. Executive Leadership: • Defines clear objectives, roles, and responsibilities • Creates culture of trust and open communication • Visibly involved Common Pitfall : Without executive leadership, S&OP dissolves into a fragmented tactical process that lacks strategic vision. 10 KEYS TO SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION 2. Reliable Data: • Clean, accurate & trustworthy data • Executive management receives information in easily understood format • Useful information with the least amount of data possible Common Pitfall: Without useful and reliable data project is held up by additional data gathering efforts. 11 KEYS TO SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION 3. Performance Measurement & Continuous Improvement • Use S&OP scorecard that aligns KPIs with strategic goals 4. Phased Implementation • Achieving full S&OP integration requires a phased implementation approach 12 MATURITY MAP OF PROCESS INTEGRATION COORDINATION INTEGRATION STAGE 1 STAGE 2 STAGE 3 STAGE 4 "Siloed" Decision Making Reactive Decision Making Proactive Decision Making Integrated Decision Making ▪ Informality ▪ Firefighting ▪ Expediting ▪ Crisis management ▪ Unplanned events ▪“Blame” culture ▪ No teamwork ▪ Elements of S&OP ▪ Understanding the coordination need ▪ Data management ▪ Functional bias ▪ Integrated ▪ Coordination across the decision making business drives strategic ▪ One set of numbers deployment ▪ Teamwork ▪ Responsiveness in ▪ Data integrity pursuit of business ▪ Realistic plans strategy ▪ Business plans ▪Process thinking shared &understood 13 S&OP IS A JOURNEY STAGE 1 STAGE 2 STAGE 3 STAGE 4 "Siloed" Decision Making Reactive Decision Making Proactive Decision Making Integrated Decision Making At What Stage of the Maturity Map is Your Organization? 14 EVOLVING S&OP TO INTEGRATED BUSINESS MANAGEMENT (IBM) Jason Reiman Vice President, Global Logistics Excellence The Hershey Company Legacy Planning Processes Were Not Integrated Let’s see, do I believe the forecasts? How much should I make? How much? Where? When? ?? Forecasting National level - monthly “Allocated” across weeks Production Planning Schedules production using “rules of thumb” planning Inventory Deployment Deploys inventory across distribution network Forecast Error Was The Source Of Many Issues Over Forecast Forecast Error Under Forecast Short Term Inventory Investment Obsolescence Better forecasts and demand insights help drive improvements in: Long Term Margin Erosion Lower Profitability Customer Service Short Term Imperfect Order Fill Retail “Out of Stocks” Long Term Diminishing Promotions Declining Distribution Inventory Waste Reduction Promotional Effectiveness Retail Compliance Visibility and accuracy here drives the rest of the supply chain Hershey Evolved Their Planning Processes…First To Sales & Operations Planning, Then to Integrated Business Management Oliver Wight Assessment Integrated Business Mgmt Exec Team Commitment • Business decision making process • Executive level engagement • Integrated financial & operating plans Effectiveness Formal 2 Year Initiative reporting through Sales S&OP • Rolling 24 month horizon with linkage to strategic plan • Plans in units and dollars • Formal forecast and supply review • Limited executive review • Focus on gross sales plan ($) • Fiscal focus planning horizon (current year) Functional Plans • Disconnected demand & supply plans • Weak accountability • Multiple, disjointed plans Time What is Integrated Business Management (IBM)? A formal process owned by the commercial team that leverages a routine, monthly cycle of structured discussions and clear roles and responsibilities that aligns all functions on the assumptions, risks and opportunities associated with the sales volume, P&L, and calendar over a 24 month horizon to ensure we deliver our Strategy. Strategy Strategy Review Feedback Loop Aligned Metrics Strategy Management Business Review Integration & Reconciliation Financials Supply Review Supply/ Fulfillment Global Innovation Review IBM Demand Review Demand Creation Innovation Integrated Business Management Ensures We Deploy The Strategy Strategy Strategy Review Feedback Loop Volume P&L Calendar Integrated Reconciliation Financials Strategic & Business Planning Management Business Review Integrated Business Management Supply Review Supply/ Fulfillment Aligned Metrics Innovation Pipeline Review Demand Review Demand Creation Innovation A Structured Monthly Calendar Creates Accountability AUG S 9 16 23 30 Innovation Review & Consensus M T W T F S 3 10 17 24 4 11 18 25 5 12 19 26 6 13 20 27 7 14 21 28 8 15 22 29 Demand Consensus Meetings Executive Demand Review Sales & Marketing VP Review Supply Review Integration & Reconciliation (Finance) Management Business Review Including Alignment On Roles And Responsibilities Function Role Input Accountability Brand Marketing (Integrated Marketing) - Owner of Final Demand Plan - Drive Consensus, Action Plans for Improving Brand Results - Execute Marketing Plan to support the volume and revenue plan. Demand Planning - Objective view of forecast / trends - Facilitation of monthly review and drive to consensus Sales (Go To Market) - Represent Customer Plans - Communicate S&OP Plan to Field Sales - Align Targets and Metrics. - Advertising; Promotion and Marketing Plans (Marketing Schedule); Ad Lift Analysis; New Product Calendar; Item Discontinuation; Cannibalization; Seasonal; Strategy (timing, execution etc) - Building Blocks Year over Year (Base and Incremental) - Coordination of all inputs / Statistical projections - Recommended actions and plan / Document outcomes - Reconcile Aggregate to Detail plans - Collaborative Customer Plans - Collect and Formalize Assumptions - Review / Monitor Channel Inventory - Customer business plans / Trade spending plans - Customer promotions / Sell through - Pack Type Assortment Plan / Store Growth - Competitive feedback / New product acceptance Task - Customer ad-lift / Distribution Basic Analytics - Retail Coverage Actualize Prior Month History - Retail Trends based on execution vehicle Run Statistical Projection Pack Type - Bridge Sales and Marketing volume projections Business Insights (IBI) - Provide supporting input to Product & Marketing plan US Strategy - Development of long term business strategy goals / objectives Finance - Support Brand Teams / Sales - Challenge assumptions - Provide visibility of Financial Goals Demand Management Process Owner - Oversee entire demand planning process - Facilitate change - Drive New Platforms and Innovation Global Platform Innovation Corporate Strategic Planning - Coordinate the Corporate Strategic Planning Process - Communicate plan to key stakeholders - Provide linkages and clarity of expectations - - Provide detailed SKU mix and Geographic splits of demand on Branch Warehouses - Communicate Plan to Supply organization in Aggregate and Detail - Execute the customer business plan (programs, etc.) Brand Demand Planning C - Develop Customer Marketing C programs, supporting Brand Marketing R Plans Provide updated in and open comparisons Provide system Segmentation / Effect offorecast Marketing elements - Timely analysis of market trends / Collaborative Planning forecast Concept testing / Consumer feedback promotional results Velocity analysis / Share of Display / FDMx Trends Innovation / New Products Competitive and Market consumption size / trends (NPD) Provide New Product Assumptions with Cannibalization A Retail Takeaway Forecast / Share of Distribution Confirm new product pipeline assumptions (<12 months) R Competitor Strategy / Customer Inventory - Viable product priortization by COT Confirm product assumptions (12+ months) A Pricing / White new Space Analysispipeline / SKU Rationalization - ASP / AC / Revenue / Margins - Gaps / Sales and Marketing expenses Marketplace performance Provide updated category takeaway projections Provide updated brand takeaway trends - BestProvide practice /packtype Process integration takeaway trends - 5-Step process coordinator Provide top customer takeaway trends - Link output of Demand Review to Financial Planning Process C R - Multifunctional alignment R - Process ImprovementC - Market preferences / demand - Innovation Pipeline Marketing Activities Provide updated marketing support changes A - LongProvide Range Targets - Linkage to Corporate A Performance updated promotion support changes - Corporate Priorities and Initiatives (3+ impact years) information Management Provide updated marketing A - Effective Strategic Planning Provide updated participation information in programs C incorporating all business units and NIST confirmation C appropriate inputs from S&OP process Complete Building Blocks A IBI Pack / Seasons Go To Market C C C R I Finance A A A A A I C C I C C C R R R I C A A A A C R R I I I I C C C I C C C C R C R R A A C R R R R R A R C A A R C C R A R C I C C C I I Sales C C R R R C C C C R C C C I C R R R I A R C R A A Competitive Impact Provide competitive insights (quarterly) Provide competitive activities (quarterly) Impact of competitive activity (quarterly) Customer Insights Provide customer activity changes Provide customer inventory report Run impact of any significant pack / brand shifts Collect Key Customer Input Create Customer Takeaway Forecast Collaborative Planner Input Seasons & Packtypes Provide seaonal projections Packtype builds (outcome of pktype meeting) Connect with foodservice / special channels I I R I I R A I A C C C R I R A R R Demand Review: Reaching An Aligned Demand Plan Is A Disciplined And Thorough Process Consensus Meetings Choc Brand 1 Strategy Strategy Review Strategic & Business Planning Feedback Loop Pre-meetings Choc Brand 2 Customers / Distributors Choc Brand 3 Packs Choc Brand 4 S&R Brand 1 Seasons (if applicable) S&R Brand 2 S&R Brand 3 S&R Brand 4 Innovation Demand Other Brand 1 Other Brand 2 Aligned Metrics Management Business Review Executive Demand Review Chocolate SBU View Sugar SBU View Other SBU View Integration & Reconciliation Innovation Review Financials Innovation Global Supply Review Supply/ Fulfillment IBM Demand Review Demand Creation Total Region Demand Focused on Building Blocks by Franchise Advertising Distribution Innovation Cannibalization Promotions Other (specified) Supply Review: Ensures The Support Of The Business Plan Including Risks And Opportunities Strategy Strategy Review Output of Supply Chain Review Feedback Loop Revenue P&L Calendar R&Os Strategic & Business Planning Aligned Metrics #5 - Management Business Review Revised supply plans Inventory Projections Documented assumptions Supply/Demand issues to resolve Feedback to Demand or Innovation Management on constraints Projected Cost Changes Financials #4 - Integration & Reconciliation Integrated Business Management #3 - Supply Chain Review Supply/ Fulfillment #1 - Innovation Review #2 - Demand Review Demand Creation Risks & Opportunities Alternative scenarios Enterprise Management & Support Innovation Supply Review Process Model Resources Rough Cut Capacity Analysis Current MPS Demand Plan Supply Plan Analysis Supply Plan Constraints Supply Review Dependant Demand Capacity Suppliers Service Levels Scenarios and Options Recomendations Global Operations Review Management Business Review The Time Horizon Of Each Meeting Reflects The Appropriate Content Focus Regional Supply Chain Review Focus 10% 60% Short Term Mid-Term 0 6 Short Term 10% 30% Long Term 12 Mid-Term 24 Long Term 30% 60mo Strategic 60% Global Supply Chain Review Focus Management Business Review Output Guides Next Month’s Cycle Strategy OUTPUT from Management Review Strategy Review Strategic & Business Planning Management Integrated Business Management Financial Review and Consolidation Business Review Financials Supply Review Supply/ Fulfillment Innovation Pipeline ReviewInnovation Demand Review Demand Creation Enterprise Management & Support Approved plan Decisions taken Agreed actions Input to next planning cycle Input to Reconciliation Team on gap closing scenarios Communicated LEVERAGES: Participants… for action Process Step Leaders… for direction and communication IBM Office… for broader communication on key changes IBM Is A Core Global Process Which Drives Our Business Strategy #3 Global Supply Review Innovation Review Supply Review IBM Month Supply/ Fulfillment Demand Review Demand Creation #3 Regional Supply Review** #1 Regional Innovation Review #2 Country Consensus Mtg Wk 4 Innovation Global Wk 1 * Regional Demand Consolidation #5 Regional MBR Input to Next Month Integration & Reconciliation Financials #5 Global MBR Aligned Metrics Management Business Review Country Region al Input From Last Global Strategy Review Strategic & Business Planning Feedback Loop #4 Regional Integration & Reconciliation #2 Country Exec Demand Review (EDR) Wk 2 Wk 3 Process Discipline Wk 4 Wk 1 Enabling Our Teams To Deliver Improved Results Supply Chain Metrics WMAPE 45% Real Wins! 40% • Forecast Accuracy 35% 30% 25.6% 25% Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $361 $355 $306 $357 $375 $369 $363 $441 $433 $425 Planning for the future … not the present $413 $407 $382 $340 $362 $365 $351 $357 $356 $358 $379 $376 $390 $403 $440 $358 • Working Capital Millions Inventory Current Month Lag Target 6.8 Turns (F&SH) Dec Oct Nov Aug Sep Jul Jun May Feb Mar Jan $240 Apr $279 $290 • Service Executed the strategy … delivered the plan Inv Actual, Proj, Fcst Plan Case Fill: Performance 98.8% 100.0% 99.0% 98.0% 97.0% 96.0% 95.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr 2008 May 2009 Jun Jul Goal Aug 2008 YTD Sep Oct 2009 YTD Nov Dec Aligned organization on key priorities HOW TO LEVERAGE S&OP TO REVOLUTIONIZE YOUR CATEGORY BUSINESS STRATEGY Rafal Porzucek Associate Director Strategic Demand and Supply Integration Projects, Global Operations Procter & Gamble S&OP in Procter & Gamble Standardization and Scale P&G at a Glance •Annual Sales •Number of Employees •Countries of Operations •Countries Where Our Brands Are Sold •Consumers Served by Our Brands (Approximate) $84 billion 126,000 75 180 4.6 billion Billion-Dollar Brands 37 S&OP in P&G today Business Planning Foundation S&OP integrates business planning and supply planning in a single number system Excellence in business planning is a foundation for S&OP and Supply Chain excellence S&OP Purpose S&OP provides framework for decision making and globally standard leadership process The differences between Targets, Forecasts and Actuals provide key insight to managing & driving the business. S&OP Purpose Will the plans deliver volume, Sales, Profit, Share Growth objectives? Risks & Opportunities Multi-Functional Accountability to Delivering plans, with Operational Excellence Plan Sufficiency Business Performance Forecast Accuracy Complete, Unbiased Forecasts Forecast Accuracy What is 50:50? 50% of the time the actuals will be greater than the forecast and 50% below the forecast. A 50:50 forecast has no tendency to under ship or over ship over time. What is an accurate forecast? Forecast Accuracy It moves within defined target tolerance. Why is it important? All MDO’s and RBU’s use the 50:50 Volume & Value forecast and Risk & Opportunities (R&Os) to understand Business Sufficiency. Corporate Financial forecasts use the 50:50 and R&O’s as the basis of company business planning. “Forecast Complete & Unbiased Forecasts performance is a good indicator of how well leadership understands their business…” Plan Sufficiency • Business building and gap closing are the heart of S&OP. • Focus is on actions to take or decisions to make. • R&O’s and decision sheets are vehicles to communicate in an efficient and structured way across the MDO, RBU and GBU. Will the plans deliver volume, Value, Profit, Share Growth Objectives? Risks & Opportunities Plan Sufficiency “Accept reality as it is, not as we would like it to be.” A question… What will happen if the Volume Target becomes the Volume Forecast in S&OP ? a. We will gain the consensus in S&OP b. Forecast accuracy will become business performance measure with little action on business strengthening activities c. We will support the General Manager d. We will simplify S&OP Few Practical Benefits Cosmetics leveraged S&OP process to deliver the Gillette study showed that a following in year 1 of an 1-2 point service drop was a initiative: potential loss of $330MM • An additional 750m cases. Sales. S&OP helps minimize • Improved BT profits by Case Fill Rate misses and $14.5 MM. maximize sale opportunities • Maintained 99.5% Case Fill Rate China was able to maintain high growth using S&OP by improving the alignment of the supply chain with Customer requirements (50/50 forecast) Seasonality – a typical challenge Use seasonal statistical forecast model to establish the right starting point Add local market intelligence to be more accurate Use combination of manufacturing agility, late differentiation and inventory to manage the risk; adjust the plan with new information S&OP Roles & Responsibilities General Manager Role The GMs behavior and expectations set the tone for S&OP in the organization. DRIVE • S&OP as THE core process for managing the business. • Decisions, clear actions and priorities to close the gaps. • 50:50 volume and value forecast. EXPECT • The organization to penetrate gaps and generate choices to close gaps. • Finance and PS process owners to improve the effectiveness of S&OP and facilitate quality meetings. • Quality one page decision sheets to drive choices. Finance Manager Role Ensure financial assessments of demand and supply plans are used in S&OP Decisions: – Profit Gap Analysis – Contingency Plan Costing – Elimination of Forecast Bias – Inventory Position • Ensure that demand and supply plans are used in GM and Lead Team financial analyses: – Align the 50/50 volume forecast – Relate profit forecast to S&OP plans and share in S&OP meeting Product Supply Manager Role Ensure thorough demand and supply planning process is used in S&OP: – Ensure 18 month planning horizon – Ensure constraints are identified – Address important supply issues in the process – Identify strategic choices and tactical decisions needed • Embraces the 50/50 number and realistic forecasts – Hold the organization accountable for appropriate family level accuracy based on Operating Strategy – Apply same approach for new product initiatives A question… What is your volume forecast error one month out at the category level ? a. We do not measure forecast error b. It is in the 3-5% range c. It is in the 10% range d. It is in the 30% range Marketing Manager Role • Ensure brand managers contribute to demand forecast – To provide balanced forecast via detailed assumptions – To drive out bias • Embrace S&OP as a key process to deliver business targets: – Understand 50/50 forecast assumptions – Lead sufficiency check process Sales Manager Role • Ensure that required Sales input is provided to demand planners • In a timely manner and with right granularity • With revisions/updates as appropriate • Ensure Sales understands product availability details • Changes required in their selling plans • Product changes, discontinuations etc requiring Sales Attention • Embrace S&OP sales plan and shipment forecast • Assist in resolving volume gaps • Ensure the latest execution plans and supporting S&OP including initiative details Initiative Manager Role • • • • Ensure that product launch process is used and linked to S&OP Master Plan reviews Pre-S&OP planning Key decision dates are met to allow adequate planning • Embrace S&OP as the key process for delivering an integrated category business plan with all initiatives included A question… What is 50/50 forecast ? a. An average of Demand, GM, Finance and Sales volume input b. A forecast that has equal probability to be shipped or exceeded within agreed tolerance c. A volume target that GM needs to deliver d. A forecast that has equal probability to be exceeded or missed within agreed tolerance Standardization & Scale Organization – globally standard Structure Training and Qualification by Function Skill based progression consistent across planning disciplines Work Process – globally standard 8 block Demand Planning work process model Demand Planning Standards S&OP with single number Health Check system Global Capability Network Systems – globally standard • Global Forecasting Platform • Demand Sensing • Data Storage and Reporting • Global Financial Platform • Accuracy reporting for volume and $MM Organization Work Process COE Systems …its all about Agility the next big product launch the next emerging channel the next acquisition the next business change the next big enterprise solution Interactive S&OP Panel Discussion Facilitator: Michael Jacobs, Chief Logistics Officer, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Panelists: Jeff Metersky, VP Sales, Inventory and Operations Planning (SIOP) Practice, Chainalytics Jason Reiman, Vice President, Global Logistics Excellence, The Hershey Company Rahquel Purcell, Director Global Supply Chain Innovation, Procter & Gamble Rafal Porzucek, Associate Director Strategic Demand and Supply Integration Projects, Global Operations, Procter & Gamble Dr. Nada R. Sanders, Iacocca Chair and Professor, Lehigh University Questions? 64 WRAP-UP & CLOSING REMARKS Michael Jacobs Chief Logistics Officer Green Mountain Coffee Roasters