Energy transition in Europe
Werkconferentie: ‘Nieuwe Energie: Onbegrensde
Mogelijkheden’, Groningen, 13 juni 2014.
Prof. Dr. André P.C. Faaij
Academic Director - Energy Academy Europe
Distinguished Professor Energy System Analysis –
University of Groningen
What is the Energy Academy Europe?
• Center of excellence in energy education/research/innovation
• Focus on transition to sustainable, reliable and affordable energy.
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Renewables (wind, solar etc.)
Energy efficiency (including energy water and food)
Gas (including biogas, green gas)
C0₂ reduction
Smart grids
Top Research
Applied research/
innovation
Education (focus on
interdisciplinary)
• Open to all interested students, organizations and businesses
• Public / Private initiative of:
Hanze University of Applied Sciences,
University of Groningen, GasTerra ,
Energy Valley and EBN
Stakeholders/IAB,
Fall 2014
2015
2022
!! Interlinkages & matching stakeholder dialogue; demand & supply
With respect to research, education, innovation… !!
Partners
EnTranCe
Building 2000 m2 realized per sept/oct 2014
Building Energy Academy
10.000 m2, completed end of 2015
Energy demand, GHG emissions and
climate change…
Potential emissions from
remaining fossil resources could
result in GHG concentration levels
far above 600ppm.
Energy system transformation…
[GEA/van Vuuren et al CoSust, 2012]
CCS Potential
1/5 of the
portfolio
Source: IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2008
CCS is not only about coal or power
Source: IEA, Technological Roadmap CCS, 2009
Europa…
• Nog altijd gecommitteerd aan vergaande GHG emissie
reductiedoelstellingen (-80% in 2050)
• Kwetsbaar door grootschalige en toenemende energie-importen
– Handelsbalans (400 mld Euro/jr en stijgend).
– Hoge kosten (concurrentiepositie)
• Technologisch deels koploper.
• Implementatie transities: grote verschillen tussen lidstaten.
• Europese kaders; bieden stabiliteit, maar zijn niet optimaal (20/20/20
doelstelling, geen harmonisatie in incentives, falend ETS).
• Na 2020… 30/30/30? Veranderingen in instrumentarium? Toenemende
belang van Horizon 2020 aanpak en programmering.
• Grote politieke druk voor (meer) gezamenlijk Europees energiebeleid, o.a.:
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Onderhandelingspositie in internationale energiemarkten
Harmonisatie energiebeleid (incentives DE. GHG, eff) lidstaten.
Pan-Europese energie-infrastructuur
RDD&D
Gas supplies of Europe
Energy mix EU
Oil critical (imported) fossil fuel
Few countries have substantial
role of renewables (e.g. Demark,
Austria, Sweden; mainly due to
bioenergy + hydro)
Variable roles for gas and nuclear
Maar (deel) Europa (deels) ook koplopersrol…
Economische betekenis:
Nieuwe industrie en werkgelegenheid?
Off shore in wind op zee?
Gasrotonde van Europa?
Biobased economy?
PV
Koploper Smart Grids?
Generic capital cost trend for early
commercial units of a new power
plant technology
Available for commercial order
Preconstruction and licencing period
Capital Cost / Unit of Capacity
(constant currency)
Finalized cost estimate
Design / construction period
First commercial service
Second plant in service
3rd plant
4th plant
5th plant
Development period
cost estimates
Mature plant costs
Simplified cost estimate
with incomplete data
Estimate
Actual
Time
Source: EPRI
RE costs have declined in the past and
further declines expected in the future.
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Technical Advancements: growth
in size of commercial wind
turbines.
CSP seen as driver for
economic development…
0.12
Electricity production costs (Euro(2002)/kWh)
Source: Junginger, Faaij et al., 2005
Experience curve for cost of electricity from
Swedish biomass fired CHP plants.
0.11
1990
0.1
0.09
PR = 91% R2 = 0.85
0.08
1991
0.07
1994
1995
0.06
1992 1993
1997
0.05
2002
PR = 92% R2 = 0.88
0.04
Average electricity production costs
Marginal electricity production costs
1999
0.03
1
10
100
1000
Cumulative electricity production (MWh)
[Junginger, Faaij et al., 2005]
10000
And such opportunities can be
found in most sectors…
[Martin Weiss et al., 2010]
Advancing biobased markets…pushed by
technological progress and pulled by high
oil prices
• Advanced biofuels…(strong economic
perspective)
• Biorefining, biochemicals, biomaterials…
• Aviation and shipping…
• Likely to compete for the same resources…
• Should meet the same sustainability criteria…(but
that is not the case today!)
• Competition or synergy?
Final energy (EJ)
Biofuels; they are not going away.
 Large-scale deployment of advanced biofuels vital to meet the roadmap targets
 Advanced biofuels reach cost parity around 2030 in an optimistic case
[IEA Biofuels Roadmap]
Simulated Biomass trade flows 2020
2009
(pellets)
1.6
2015
2020
Low Import High Import Low Import High Import
5.4
6.2
12.6
17.4
Total trade (Mtoe)
Total trade (Mt wood pellet
eq.)*
3.8
12
Of which Intra-EU
55%
38%
Of which Inter-EU
45%
62%
*) Mt eq. = million metric tonne pellet equivalent (18 MJ/kg)
Low Import scenario
14
32%
68%
29
52%
48%
40
32%
68%
High Import scenario
Import
non-EU
Import
Import
non-EU
non-EU
FI
NO
FI
NO
SE
SE
RU
RU
EE
EE
LV
LV
DK
DK
LT
LT
UK
UK
BY
IE
NL
NL
DE
BE
AT
SK
AT
MD
HR
FR
SI
MC
IT
ME
AL
KS
HR
RO
RS
BA
IT
BG
ME
MK
AL
GR
PT
ES
Year: 2010
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
KS
BG
MK
GR
TR
Import
Import
non-EU
non-EU
UA
MD
HU
CH
RO
RS
BA
ES
CZ
UA
HU
CH
SI
PT
DE
LU
SK
MC
PL
BE
CZ
LU
FR
BY
IE
PL
TR
Import
non-EU
MT
MT
CY
[Hoefnagels et al, applied energy (under review)}]
CY
Biobased economy;
friend or foe?
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•
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Food vs. Fuel
Biofuels a crime against humanity
Threats for biodiversity, water, farmers…
LUC & iLUC, Carbon Payback… result in
poor GHG balances
• Large number of external damages.
Yield projections Europe
Observed yield
Linear extrapolation
of
historic trends
Widening yield gap
Applied scenarios
Low, baseline and high
Yield [ton/ha]
CEEC and WEC
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1960
Observed historic yields
1970
1980
1990
2000
Projections
2010
2020
2030
Source FAOSTAT
[Wit & Faaij, 2010]
Results - spatial
production potential
Arable land available for dedicated
bio-energy crops divided by the
total land
Potential
Countries
Low
potential
< 6,5%
NL, BE, LU, AT,
CH, NO, SE and FI
Moderate
potential
6,5%
- 17%
FR, ES, PT, GE,
UK, DK, IE, IT and
GR
High
potential
> 17%
PL, LT, LV, HU, SL,
SK, CZ, EST, RO,
BU and UKR
[Wit & Faaij, Biomass & Bioenergy, 2010]
Results - spatial cost
distribution
Production cost (€ GJ-1) for
Grassy crops
Potential
Countries
Low
Cost
< 2,00
PL, PT, CZ, LT, LV,
UK, RO, BU, HU, SL,
SK, EST, UKR
Moderate
Cost
2,00 –
3,20
FR, ES, GE, IT, SE,
FI, NO, IE
High
Cost
> 3,20
NL, BE, LU, UK, GR,
DK, CH, AT
[Wit & Faaij, Biomass & Bioenergy, 2010]
Crop specific supply curves
• Feedstock potentials
Produced
on 65 Mha arable and 24 Mha on
pastures (grass and wood)
Summary baseline 2030
• Supply potentials high
compared to demand
2010 (0,78 EJ/yr) and 2020 (1,48 EJ/yr)
Production Costs (€/GJ)
• Significant difference
between ‘1st and 2nd
generation crops’
24
1st
generation
Starch
21
18
2nd
generation
Oil
15
Sugar
12
Grass Grass
Wood Wood
9
6
3
0
0
6
12
Supply (EJ/year)
18
1 EJ (ExaJoule) = 24 Mtoe
[Wit & Faaij, Biomass & Bioenergy, 2010]
Final remarks…
• Transitie in de energievoorziening duldt geen uitstel;
doelstellingen tot 2050 vragen aanmerkelijke
versnelling.
• Niet alleen vanwege klimaatverandering (en andere
ecologische issues), maar ook economisch noodzaak.
• Technische opties wel bekend; technische potenties
zijn afdoende.
• Implementatie en governance majeure bottlenecks.
• Implicaties voor energiesysteem, uitrol in de tijd en
minimalisering van kosten slecht begrepen…
• …en zeker de mate waarin economische voordelen
kunnen worden gemaximaliseerd.
• Systeemperspectief, integraal beeld van impacts en
analyse van governance en businessmodellen.
• Meer Europa essentieel (energy security en markten,
DE, GHG, efficiency doelstellingen, pan-europese
energie-infrastructuur, RDD&D)
Become a partner!
• > 400 energy companies
• > 30.000 employees in
the energy sector
• Increase in energy
students from 300 to
3.000 yearly in 10 years
time
Contact us:
• Academic Director André Faaij (as per 1-4-2014)
• Managing Director Bert Wiersema
• Andre.faaij@energyacademy.org
• www.energyacademy.org