Simulation
Sesi 12
Dosen Pembina:
Danang Junaedi
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Simulation
 In DSS, simulation refers to a technique for
conducting experiments with a computer on a
model of a management system.
 Major Characteristics of Simulation
– Simulation imitates reality and capture its richness
– Simulation is a technique for conducting experiments
It can describe and/or predict the characteristics of
a given system under different circumstances.
– Simulation is a descriptive not normative tool
– Simulation is often used to solve very complex, risky
problems
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What is Simulation
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Case : Simulation Saves Siemens Millions
Problem:
 Siemens Solar Industries (SSI), the world’s largest maker of
solar electric products, suffered continuous problems in poor
material flow, unbalanced resource use, bottlenecks in
throughput & schedule delays.
Solution:
 SSI built a cleanroom contamination-control technology.
 The simulation provided a virtual laboratory for engineers to
experiment with various configurations before the physical
systems were constructed.
Results:
 SSI improved their manufacturing process significantly.
 The cleanroom facility saved SSI over $75 million/ year.
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Advantages and Disadvantages of
Simulation
• Slow and costly construction
process
• Cannot transfer solutions and
inferences to solve other
problems
• So easy to sell to managers,
may miss analytical solutions
• Software is not so user friendly
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Simulation Methodology
• Set up a model of a real system and
conduct repetitive experiments
1. Problem Definition
2. Construction of the Simulation Model
3. Testing and Validating the Model
4. Design of the Experiments
5. Conducting the Experiments
6. Evaluating the Results
7. Implementation
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Simulation Types
• Probabilistic Simulation
– Discrete distributions : systems monitor the
systems each time a change in its state takes place
– Continuous distributions : system monitor changes
in a state of system at descret points in time
– Probabilistic simulation via Monte Carlo technique
– Time Dependent versus Time Independent Simulation
– Simulation Software
– Visual Simulation
– Object-oriented Simulation
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Simulation Development
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Some Applications of Simulation
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Visual Spreadsheets
• User can visualize models and formulas with
influence diagrams
• Not cells--symbolic elements
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Visual Interactive Modeling (VIM) and
Visual Interactive Simulation (VIS)
• Visual interactive modeling (VIM)
Also called
– Visual interactive problem solving
– Visual interactive modeling
– Visual interactive simulation
• Use computer graphics to present the impact of
different management decisions.
• Can integrate with GIS
• Users perform sensitivity analysis
• Static or a dynamic (animation) systems
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Generated Image of Traffic at an Intersection from the
Orca Visual Simulation Environment (Courtesy Orca
Computer, Inc.)
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Visual Interactive Simulation (VIS)
• Decision makers interact with the
simulated model and watch the results
over time
• Visual interactive models and DSS
– Queueing
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Monte Carlo Simulation
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Monte Carlo Technique
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Step 1. Probability Distribution
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Step 2. Building a Cumulative
Probability Distribution
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Step 3. Setting Random Number
Interval
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Step 4. Generating Random
Numbers
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Step 5. Simulating the Experience
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Simulation of Queuing
Problem
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Queuing Problem
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Dist 1.
Interval Arrival
Times
Dist 2.
Unloading
Times
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Example
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Example-contd : Some Simple
Statistic
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Simulation and Inventory Analysis
The Basic Model
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Referensi
1. Dr. Mourad YKHLEF,2009,Decision Support
System-Simulation, King Saud University
2. Richard K. Min.2002.Information Systems for
Management. OUR LADY OF THE LAKE
UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
3. Insoo Hwang.-. Modeling and Analysis.
Department of MIS, Jeonju university
4. Efraim Turban and Jay E. Aronson.2001.
Decision Support Systems and Intelligent
Systems 6th edition. Prentice Hall
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