National Innovation System
and Inequality:
Russia
Stanislav Zaichenko
Thiruvananthapuram, India, August 19-21 2009
Inequality patterns in Russia
• Historical trends
• Interpersonal inequality
• Interregional imbalances
• Inequality by social groups
2
Historical trends
Inequality patterns
Period
• Feudal
Until 1861
• Estate
Until 1917
• Class
Until 1991 ?
• Socio-economic
By now
3
Interpersonal inequality
Gini coefficient
0.43
0.409
0.41
0.409
0.398
0.394
0.385
0.39
0.387
0.37
0.397
0.395
0.400
0.390
0.397
0.403
3.7%
12.0%
0.415
0.410
0.405
0.410
Income structure
0.35
39.5%
0.33
Wages
76.4%
0.31
0.29
14.1%
7.8%
0.289
0.25
Social transfers
Rent
Other income
14.7%
0.27
Self-employment business activities
26.6%
2.1%
3.1%
1990
2003
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
4
Interpersonal inequality: not a problem?
Gini coefficient
0.7
0.6
South Africa
Brazil
Chile
Hong Kong
Argentina
0.5
China
Uruguay
Mexico
Iran
Thailand
0.4
India
Egypt
Greece
Russia
Israel
Algeria
South Korea
0.3
Singapore
France
Italy
EU(25)
Japan
USA
Spain
UK
Canada
Ireland
Australia
Belgium
Finland
Germany
Norw ay
Denmark
0.2
0.1
GDP per capita (PPP), USD
0.0
5
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Interregional imbalances
0.6
Moscow
Gini coefficient
0.5
0.4
Khanty-Mansi
Autonomous
District
Tyumen
District
Nenets
Autonomous
District
Yamalo-Nenets
Autonomous District
Sakhalin
District
Chukotka
Autonomous
District
0.3
0.2
Depressive regional
economies
Natural resources – related
industries
0.1
(except Moscow)
Income per capita, RUR
0.0
6
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
Interregional imbalances and innovation
Organisations performing
innovation
Central Federal District
Production of innovational goods
and services, million $ PPP
Including Moscow
2658
5752
183
401
Northwestern Federal District
Southern Federal District
1571
289
Volga Federal District
7540
325
Siberian Federal District
2384
380
585
115
Far Eastern Federal District
Organisations performing
technology transfer
Central Federal District
Expenditure for technological
innovation, million $ PPP
3482
34
Including Moscow
1516
1630
10
15
Northwestern Federal District
Southern Federal District
813
5
Volga Federal District
4716
31
Urals Federal District
3226
10
Siberian Federal District
Specialisation:
26944
801
Urals Federal District
Far Eastern Federal District
10706
974
964
11
1
Manufacturing
Administration/finance
268
Natural resources quarrying and mining
7
Other
Inequality by social groups:
adaptation mechanisms failure*
Poverty risk, %
Households with 3 or more underage
children
72
Households with 2 underage children
57
Households with disabled persons
56
To compare: able-bodied couples
without children
15
* 2003 NOBUS data
8
NSI and inequality co-evolution
• NSI and production orientation
• Access to infrastructure:
–
health & education
–
knowledge
–
finance
• Employment, output and wages
–
Employment and output controversial dynamics
–
Informal employment as an adaptation mechanism
–
Productivity failure
• Regional disparities in competence
building and production
9
NSI and production orientation
Petroleum, petroleum products and related materials, gas,
natural and manufactured: world exports by country, %*
Saudi Arabia
12.38%
12.11%
Russian Federation
Norw ay
5.41%
60.58%
4.77%
United Arab Emirates
Canada
4.75%
Other reporters
* 2006 UN COMTRADE data
10
Lack of high-tech orientation
Share of civil high tech products exports in the total national
products exports by country, %*
54.6
Malta
40.6
Luxembourg
Ireland
28.9
Korea
28.7
28.2
China
UK
26.5
USA
26.1
21.4
Cyprus
Sw itzerland
20.4
Hungary
20.2
…
Russia
1.6
* 2006 UN COMTRADE data
11
Access to infrastructure: health*
Medical services expenditure structure
100%
90%
% of respondents
80%
70%
49
48
60%
47
50%
30%
2005
20%
7
2006
2007
Willing to purchase medical services soon
Willing to purchase medical services but unable to afford
10%
0%
1993
7
6
40%
1994
1995
Population
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Obligatory medical insurance
* The Federal State Statistics Service data
2002
2003
2004
Federal budget
12
Access to infrastructure: education*
Monthly average expenditure for education services,
% of average monthly household income
Higher education
12.6
Professional education
5.7
Secondary education
2.6
27
% of respondents
25
23
Willing to purchase education
services soon
6
2005
5
6
2006
2007
Willing to purchase education
services but unable to afford
* The Federal State Statistics Service data
13
Access to infrastructure: knowledge
Reasons for LLL (refresher courses), % of respondents
3.1
To do my job better
2.8
To advance vocational knowledge and skills
0.8
To earn more money
0.5
To change the nature of job
Attending LLL (refresher
courses) total = 4.6%
0.8
Other
Who paid for LLL (refresher courses)?, % of attending respondents
Employer
56
Employment agency
23
Respondent
Other
18
3
14
Access to infrastructure: knowledge (cont.)
Personal access to knowledge networks, % of respondents
9
Personal
computer
Internet
access
35
5
20
Purchased
Willing to purchase but
unable to afford
15
Access to infrastructure: finance
54.7%
Direct funding of
government R&D
institutions
45.3%
Competitive funding
26.3%
Russian Academy of
Sciences
Federal goal-oriented
programmes
39.1%
5.7%
Branch Academies of
Sciences
Budgetary foundations
6.2%
0.5%
Moscow State University
22.2%
Other organisations
Russian Foundation for Basic Research
Russian Foundation for Humanities
The Foundation for Assistance to Small Innovative Enterprises
4.4%
0.7%
1.1%
16
Employment & output: controversial dynamics
155.8%
146.6%
137.9%
131.4%
121.5%
111.6%
105.2%
100.0%
94.5%
92.4%
1995
1996
96.8%
93.3%
88.8%
88.5%
1997
108.2%
83.7% 83.4%
1998
1999
84.7%
2000
Industrial output, % to 1995
83.7%
2001
82.1%
2002
78.7%
2003
76.2%
2004
73.6%
71.9%
71.9%
2005
2006
2007
Employees, % to 1995
17
Employment & output: “sanitization”
Structure of output and employment by industry, % (2007)
21.9%
12.8%
16.0%
14.1%
30.9%
3.2%
Industrial Output
Employed
8.9%
18.4%
20.8%
19.1%
26.8%
7.7%
Natural resources extraction
Production and distribution of electrical pow er, gas and w ater
Low tech manufacturing
Medium low tech manufacturing
Medium high tech manufacturing
High tech manufacturing
18
Nature of employment: informality
Share of informal employment in total income, %
26.0
27.5
26.6
2000
2003
28.1
20.2
3.1
1990
1995
2005
2007
19
Nature of employment: back to inequality
Regions by regional poverty level and share of informal
employment in income per capita (2007)
Regional poverty level, %
60
50
40
30
20
10
Share of informal employment in income per capita, %
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
20
Productivity failure
Value added per one
employee, thousand
RUR
Monthly wages by
industry, RUR
Natural resources extraction
23145
2832.2
Production and distribution of
electric power, gas and water
Low tech manufacturing
12828
394.7
7459
290.1
867.6
Medium low tech manufacturing
Medium high tech manufacturing
284.6
High tech manufacturing
277.9
13268
10925
10290
21
Regional disparities in competence building
and production
22
Conclusion: inequality balance
Infrastructure
Resources
redistribution
Preserving noninnovation
activities
Preserving
depressive
regions
Constraints
Institutional / macroeconomic
failures
Interregional
inequality
Innovation
Learning
Mobility
mechanisms
Innovation / business potential
Positive factors
Negative factors
23
Conclusion: push-pull adaptation today
State
“self-eating”
Survival
Households
“self-eating”
PULL:
Centralised budget
system
< Wealth redistribution
mechanisms
Inequality / poverty
PUSH:
“Homemade” adaptation
mechanisms
< Income structure
transformation
< Consumption structure
mobilisation
24
Conclusion: comprehensive push-pull scheme
Long-term
assistance
Development
Short-term
shock protection
PULL:
Adaptation / mobility
policies
Inequality / poverty
PUSH:
“Homemade” adaptation
mechanisms
< Risk groups addressed policies
< Mobility assistance:
• education
• labor
• location
< Infrastructure:
• knowledge
• finance
• basic
< Health: more flexible insurance
< Local budgets: more autonomy
Single framework
< Income structure
transformation
< Consumption structure
mobilisation
25