The Three Theoretical Models
for Turkish accession
Prof.Dr.MELTEM MUFTULER-BAC*
Sabanci University
December 29 2010
Presentation at Center for European
Studies, METU
*http://myweb.sabanciuniv.edu/muftuler
KEY DATES
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September 12, 1963-Association Agreement
November 23, 1970-Additional Protocol
April 14, 1987-Application for full membership
December 17, 1989-Commission Opinion
March 6, 1995-Customs Union
December 10, 1999-The Helsinki summit and
Turkey’s Candidacy
October 3, 2005-accession negotiations begin
Turkey’s membership
• October 2004-Commission recommend
accession negotiations
• December 2004-The European Council
based on the Commission
recommendation decided on opening
negotiations
• October 3, 2005: The GAC opened
accession negotiations with Turkey with
the adoption of the Negotiations
Framework
Screening process
• The analytical examination of the Turkish
ability to adopt the EU’s acquis
communaitaire divided into 35 Chapters
• Screening began in October 2005completed in October 2006
• At the end of the screening process, there
is a screening report for every chapter –
needs to be approved unanimously in the
Council.
Negotiations
• misleading as a term-negotiations are over
the time period and the financial
compensation that the candidate requests
• Negotiations could last 10-15 years
• Final Accession Treaty- contains the
articles decided upon at every round and
is subject to approval in the Council, by
the EP and all the member states.
Accession Negotiations
• June 2006-Chapter on Science and Research opened and provisionally
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closed
December 2006- European Council suspended negotiations for 8 chaptersincl.agriculture
March 2007-Chapter on Industry and Enterprise Policy opened for
negotiations
June 2007- two more chapters opened for negotiations-Chapter on
Statistics and Chapter on Financial Control
December 2007- two more chapters open- Chapter on Consumer and
Health protection and Chapter on Trans-European networks
June 2008: two more chapters: Company Law and Intellectual Property are
opened.
December 2008: two more chapters: Free movement of Capital and Media
Worlds opened.
June 2009: one more chapters-Taxation opened.
December 2009: Chapter on Environment opened
June 2010:Chapter on Food Safety, Veterinary & Phytosanitary Policy
opened
• 13 chapters opened.
Chapters that are blocked
• 2006 December, the European Council froze negotiations
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on 8 chapters (incl.agriculture)
France blocks financial and budgetary affairs, regional
policy, economic and financial policy.
Cyprus blocks chapters on energy, judicial rights, justice,
freedom and society, foreign security and defense policy,
freedom of movement of workers, education and culture.
17 chapters are frozen as of November 2010.
Chapters 34 and 35 cannot be negotiatied so that leaves
only 3 chapters that could be opened-Social Policy, Public
procurement, and competition policy.
Utility driven perspectives
• Proposition I: The material benefits and
costs of Turkey’s membership will
determine Turkey’s accession to the EU.
• Security related costs/benefits
• Economy related costs/benefits
• Institutional balances in the EU
Norm Driven perspectives
• Proposition II: Perceptions of its
Europeanness will determine Turkey’s
accession to the EU
• EU governments and the public would
perceive costs and benefits associated
with specific countries differently when
these candidates are seen as part of the
larger European identity.
Rights Driven perspectives
• Proposition III: The internal dynamics of
the EU will determine Turkey’s accession
to the EU as a full member.
• The end of ‘permissive consensus’
• The elite-public divide over the process of
integration
Member state preferences
• Security related concerns
• Economic related concerns
• Loss of structural funds
• Concerns over deepening vs.widening
• Turkey’s population
• Culture and identity concerns
Turkey’s challenges to the EU
• Deepening and developing 2nd pillar
• Population-currently 71 million, projected
to be 82 million by 2015
• Directly related to that, voting weight of
Turkey
• Strain on the budget
• Culture and identity
Obstacles for the near future
• Cyprus-end is near for chapters that can
be opened-a new deal for 2011?
• Visa facilitation regime or visa
liberalization-currently negotiations are
unfolding
• European Defense Agency• The overall crisis in Europe and its impact
on the EU’s attractiveness