The Economics of
Eco-Ships
Noboru Ueda
Chairman & President, ClassNK
S-1
The First Factor – Charter Rates
The Peak
BDI: 11,000
The Crash
Today:
BDI: 650~
BDI: 650~
Roughly the same as 2009
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Source: Bloomberg
S-2
The Second Factor – Ship Prices
The Peak (2008)
Capesize $104m
Panamax $58.5m
Handymax $50m
Handysize $40m
The Crash (2009)
Capesize $57m
Panamax $35m
Handymax $31m
Handysize $25m
Today
NB Price:
20% below
2009 prices
$45m
$27m
$25m
$19m
Capesize
Panamax
Handymax
Handysize
Source: Drewry
S-3
The Third Factor – Bunker Fuel Prices
The Peak
Bunkers: $750/t
The Crash
Bunkers: $250/t
Today
Bunkers: $680/t
More than 2.5x
2009 prices
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
380cst Bunker (Singapore)
Source: Bloomberg
S-4
The Third
Factor – Bunker Fuel Prices
Bunker
Prices:
Singapore 380 CST
1999: Bunkers
Less than $100/t
Long term trend
of higher prices
Today: Bunker Price
almost 7 times higher
than 1999!
Source: SSY
S-5
Why Fuel Costs Matter Now
Test Case: Panamax BC Year: 1999
Mil. US$
200
Newbuilding Price: $27 mil
Fuel: 35 t/day
Voyages: 250 days
150
35t/day x $100/t x 250 days
=$875,000/year x 25 years
Fuel price
Ship price
Lifetime Fuel Cost
100
$21.8 Million
Lifetime Fuel Cost
50
Only 80%
of Ship Price
0
5
10
15
20
Years after Delivery
25
Source: Drewry
S-6
Why Fuel Costs Matter Now
Test Case: Panamax BC Year: 2012
Mil. US$
Fuel price
200
Ship price
Newbuilding Price: $27 mil
Fuel: 35 t/day
Voyages: 250 days
35t/day x $700/t x 250 days
=$6.1 Mil/year x 25 years
150
Lifetime Fuel Cost
100
$153 Million
Lifetime Fuel Cost
50
550%
0
5
20
15
10
Years after Delivery
25
of Ship Price
Source: Drewry
S-7
The Value of Eco-Ships
Standard Panamax BC and 20% More Fuel Efficient Eco-Ship
35 tons / day
Mil. US$
28 tons / day
160
140
120
With Bunkers @
$700 tons a day
a 20% decrease
in fuel consumption
= $1.2 million
100
savings each year
80
60
Lifetime Savings of
40
$30.6 Million
20
0
5
10
15
20
Years after Delivery
25
over 25 years
(per ship)
Source: Drewry
S-8
Eco-Ships have already arrived
IHI Marine United (IHIMU)
eFuture 310T Tanker & 56B Bulk Carrier
30% GHG reduction via integrating
the following technologies:





Whale back bow
Electronically controlled diesel engine
Variable nozzle area turbocharger
Waste heat recovery system
Single-screw, twin-engine
propulsion system
 Contra-rotating propellers
IHIMU estimates that the initial cost of these new systems
will be recouped within 5 or 6 years.
S-9
Eco-Ships have already arrived
Universal Shipbuilding Corp. (USC)
Next-generation “G-Series” Capesize & Panamax BC
G209BC (209,000 DWT)
G80BC (80,000 DWT)
20% Fuel savings from
new technology:
• LEADGE-Bow
• Super Stream Duct (SSD)
• SURF-BULB
• Delivery from end of 2013
S-10
Eco-Ships have already arrived
Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding
Neo Supramax 66BC
• 66,000 DWT
• Length: abt. 200 m
• Beam: 36.0 m
• Depth: 18.45 m
• Draft: 15.2 m
• Fuel savings: 30%
• Launched onto market
Conventional 56BC
35 tons/day
Neo Supramax 66BC
25 tons/day
Fuel Savings
30%
MES estimates that the initial cost of these new systems will
be recouped within a few years.
S-11
Eco-Ships have already arrived
Imabari Shipbuilding
Panamax BC (84,000 DWT)
Fuel consumption: under 30 tons/day
Oshima Shipbuilding
Panamax BC (77,000 & 82,000 DWT)
Fuel consumption: under 30 tons/day
Sanoyasu Hishino
Meisho
Panamax BC (82,000 DWT)
Fuel consumption: under 30 tons/day
“Handy Cape” (120,000 DWT)
Fuel consumption: 13% saving
Namura Shipbuilding
High Bulk 34 BC (34,000 dwt)
Fuel Consumption:10% less than 32BC
Capesize BC (170-180,000 DWT)
To market in near future.
S-12
How do we improve efficiency?





Improvement of Optimum Hull Form (New bow, hull shape)
Reduction of Hull Friction (Coatings, Air lubrication)
Improvement of Propeller Efficiency (CRP, ducts)
Improvement of Engine Efficiency (Turbochargers, engines
Utilization of Renewable Energy (Solar, hybrid systems)
We have to look at the entire ship but this requires
cooperation across many sectors….
S-13
Industry Wide Initiatives
All-Japan GHG Emission Program
12
Shipping Co.
7
Shipbuilders
MHI, IHI, Oshima…
NYK, MOL, K-Line...
7
Makers
11
NPO/Gov
ClassNK, MTI, MLIT…
Yanmar, Nippon Paint...
22 R&D Projects
30%
GHG Emission
Reduction vs.
Existing Ships
2009-2013
Our Contribution: USD 28 Million to 19 of 22 projects
S-14
Hybrid Turbocharger
Combined generator +
Turbocharger. Already in
use on bulk carrier Shin Koho
CO2 Reduction: 2%
Flexible
Coupling
High Speed
PM Generator
Output Terminal Box
S-15
Hybrid Power Systems
Auriga Leader
Vehicle Carrier
Hybrid solar panel and battery/fuel cell
system used to reduce electric power needs
during voyage – reducing fuel use.
CO2 Reduction: 2%
S-16
Hybrid Power Systems
Emerald Ace
Vehicle Carrier
Delivered:
June 2012!
Hybrid solar panel and battery/fuel cell
system used to eliminate the need for
generators/fuel use in berth at port
CO2 Reduction: No emissions in port
S-17
Air lubrication System
Bubbles generated by blower reduce the
frictional resistance between the vessel’s
bottom and water.
CO2 Reduction :
12-13% at sea trials on Module Carrier
S-18
Air Lubrication
Revolutionary Technology but with many challenges…
The Solution:
A united effort by 10+ Shipyards and research organizations
S-19
Many Challenges:
•
Development and optimization
of blower system and controls.
•
Testing shape of openings,
size of bubbles and effect on
hull.
•
Study flow of bubbles along
hull in order to improve
efficiency.
•
Develop design tools for
application to other ship types.
•
Ensure performance (propeller,
sea chest, etc) not affected by
new system.
S-20
Results of Collaboration:
Soyo
Type:
Size:
Length:
Beam:
Draft:
Coal Carrier (BC)
91k DWT
235m
43m
13m
First test application of new MALS Air Lubrication technology
on a traditional deep draft cargo vessel, built at Oshima
Shipbuilding in Japan for NYK.
CO2 Reduction :
4-8% during sea trials depending on draft level
S-21
Results of Collaboration:
MALS-ADMMAX
Size:
Length:
Beam:
Draft:
95k dwt BC
237m
40m
12.5m
(Designed Load)
Jointly developed by rival shipbuilders
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI)
& Oshima Shipbuilding for sale to
U.S. based grain/dry bulk major ADM.
S-22
The Next Steps
MALS-14000CS
• Capacity: 14,000 TEU
• Length: 366 m
• Beam: 48.8 m
• Draft:
15.2 m
• MHI Air Lubrication System (MALS)
• Fuel savings : 35%
S-23
Is this Green Revolution Real?
MPG
Avg. Fuel Economy for Passenger Cars USA (1975-2011)
28
26
24
22
+15%
20
18
+70%
16
14
12
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
Source: US EPA
S-24
Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow
S-25
谢谢！
Thank you very much