IBM Research – China 物联网、决策优化与电网智能化 IBM 中国研究院 尹文君 博士 © 2010 IBM Corporation 百年华诞 服务百年 智能电网 智能交通系统 测量与提高能源管理 监视和改进交通系统的使用 减少交通阻塞 减少CO2排放 增加公共交通的使用 减少能源消耗 促进环境保护 先进的计量 提高使用效率 减少停电 改进电网管理 管理分布式能源 碳排放管理 减少和减少碳排放 碳管理策略 碳管理智能决策 供应链管理 居所、建筑和工作场地碳排放管理 先进水管理 能源效率技术和服务 创建和管理IT系统以提高能效 2 主动能源管理 利用IT技术提高基础设施的能效 IT运行效率 监视和验证能效目标 需求侧能效管理 利用实时数据监视和管理水务系统的使用 天气事件管理 防洪防灾管理 用水和水质的实时监视和分析 © 2010 IBM Corporation IBM 研究部 About 3,000 engineers, scientists and technical professionals Pushing the boundaries of science and technology to make the world work better Helping clients, governments and universities solve challenges in business and society Lithuania Dublin China Zurich Watson Almaden Shenyang Haifa Austin Saudi Arabia Tokyo Shanghai India Taiwan Hyderabad Brazil IBM Research Labs IBM Research New Presence Since 2007 3 Natural Resources Smarter Devices Human Systems/Events Natural Resources Disaster management Melbourne Healthcare/Life Sciences © 2010 IBM Corporation 60年创新之路,覆盖信息科学、数学、物理、材料、电子工程、 行为科学等领域 1944: Mark 1 1973: Winchester Disk 1997: Copper Interconnect Wiring 4 1948: SSEC 1979: Thin Film Recording Heads 1998: Silicon-on-Insulator 1956: RAMAC 1980: RISC 1998: Microdrive 1957: FORTRAN 1986: 1964: System/360 Nobel Prizes: Scanning Tunneling Microscope 2002: Millipede 1966: One-Device Memory Cell 1987: High Temperature Superconductivity 1990: Chemically Amplified Photoresists 2004: Blue Gene The fastest supercomputer in the world 1967: Fractals 1970: Relational Database 1994: SIGe 2006: 5-stage Carbon Nanotube Ring Oscillator 1971: Speech Recognition 1993: RS/6000 SP 1996,97: Deep Blue 2008: World’s First Petaflop Supercomputer © 2010 IBM Corporation 获得了巨大的成就与荣誉 5名诺贝尔奖得主 Scanning Tunneling Microscope High Temperature Superconductivity Electron Tunneling Effect 80余名美国国家科学院 和工程院院士 7项美国国家技术奖 Copper Chip Technology Silicon-onInsulator SiGe DRAM 330多名专业学会院士 5 AAAS ACM ACS APS AVS ECS 5项国家科学奖 Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Techniques 6项图灵奖 High Performance Computing Basis for MRI today 10人进入美国国家 发明家名人堂 First woman recipient in the history of this prestigious ACM award 供应链全球最佳奖 IEEE IOP OSA © 2010 IBM Corporation 连续17年,IBM专利数处于全球领先地位 2009 美国专利数领先公司 5000 4914 Number of Patents 4000 70% 3000 Software and Services 2906 >3x >15x 2000 1537 1273 1000 289 250 208 141 43 Oracle Google Accenture 0 IBM 6 Microsoft Intel HP Apple EMC © 2010 IBM Corporation 能源是IBM重点关注的领域之一,并在诸多方面开展了大量卓有成效 的工作 解决方案开发与交付 政策与标准 思想领导 Solution Development Research Global IUN Coalition Nuclear Power Advisory Council Global IUN Coalition Solution Delivery Partner Ecosystem 7 © 2010 IBM Corporation IBM正在研究业界最具挑战性的课题 Li-Air Batteries with 500 miles range Zero-Emissions DC Supercomputing & Grid Simulation Smart Grids O2 O2 flow turned off (test) Discharge Voltage vs. Time CO2 Commercial Polymers 135x Performance/Watt by 2019 Earth-Abundant SolnProcessed PV CO2 Concentrator PV Smart Buildings Energy Innovation Hub Minimodule (CIGS) Coal Power Plant Polymer Manufacturing Plant 8 © 2010 IBM Corporation IBM与BAO • BAO融合了IBM深厚的技术与行业功 行业洞察 底,包括来自研究部门的数学家、 高级分析专家,来自软件部门的先 进平台技术、深入的行业洞察与企 数学研究 BAO 智慧决策 业咨询经验,帮助客户获得关键的 业务洞察,使企业智能上升到一个 软件系统 新阶段。 9 © 2010 IBM Corporation IBM实施BAO的能力 1. 严格的洞察: 行业动态 2. 出色的技术: 基础软件 3. 深入研究: 先进的算法 对新目标做出严格的承诺。 为客户提供新的价值水平。 10 © 2010 IBM Corporation OEVC的研究 A shared portfolio of analytics applications & IP designed to deliver business value Operational Analytics App 1 App 2 App N Patents Energy Services App 1 App 2 App N Smarter Energy Platform Smarter Energy Research Institute Deep Collaboration Smarter Energy Platform Applications Layer Selected Commercial SW & HW Products Analytics Engines Netezza X,P,Storage Smarter Energy Engines (Analytics, Modeling & Optimization) Process Orchestration Data Orchestration Models & Analytics Orchestration Optimization Engines Analytic Engines Business Intelligence Engines Selected IBM Research Capabilities Deep Thunder System of Systems Foundation Interoperability Framework and System Management Services Example: PMUs Meters SCADA Grid Ntwrk Energy Weather Wind Markets sensors Solar IEDs GIS 1 World-Class Talent & Innovations State-of-the-Art Computing 3 3 3 1 11 1 1 Global Membership Leverage & Learning from Around the World © 2010 IBM Corporation 智能电网能源价值链的变化 不断变化的能源价值链 转变后的能源价值链 传统的能源价值链 煤/天然气 储能 太阳能 电力企业 水电 核电 电力企业 风电 储能 煤/天然气 水电 太阳能 核电 风电 储能 太阳能 插电式电动汽车 消费者 潮流 定期信息流 连续信息流 风电 © 2010 IBM Corporation 实现智能电网价值链改变的发展历程 Solar Participatory Network Measure & Control Gain observability over the network and automate control functions One-way Flow Basic Functionality August 10 2010 Integrate consumers and providers with the network & enable participation & conversation Converse and share information, analyzing and acting upon it to balance supply with demand given realtime conditions Optimize network functions based on rules & constraints Orchestrate the network and its participants to continuously assure an optimized, secure, balanced and reliable network Energy Storage UTILITY Wind Coal/Natural Gas Hydroelectric Solar Energy Storage Nuclear Wind Solar Energy Storage Orchestrate Plug-in Vehicle Wind Optimize Analyze & Act Connect Participants Monitor & Automate (Network) Maturity over time Advanced Functionality © 2010 IBM Corporation IBM研究院从业务分析与优化(Business Analytics & Optimization, BAO)及优化 的能源价值链(Optimized Energy Value Chain,OEVC)的角度,进行智能电网 研究 智能配电网 停电计划优化方案 综合停电管理解决方案 电网风险管控方案 可再生能源发电 电网综合评估规划辅助决策方案 电力气象技术支持系统方案 风能及太阳能发电功率预测方案 微电网、电动汽车 机组启停及并网优化方案 BAO & OEVC 微电网管理系统解决方案 储能管理与优化方案 电动汽车充放电优化方案 电动汽车充换电网络规划方案 能效管理 能效评估与节能服务 物联网智能一体化平台、智能电网可视化方案 © 2010 IBM Corporation 基于物联网的智能电网平台 Smarter Energy Applications Smarter Energy Platform Analytics & Optimization End-to-end QoS (Security etc.) Development & Testing Tools Operation & Management Tools Analytics & Optimization Applications Solutions Layer (with context specific models) Intermittent Renewable Power Forecasting (Wind & Solar) Integrated Distributed Outage Planner Service Platform Intelligent Grid Assessment & Planning (Analytics, Modeling & Optimization) Phase Identification and Balancing Smarter Energy Engines Application Gateways Process Orchestration Data Orchestration Models & Analytics Orchestration Optimization Engines Analytic Engines Business Intelligence Engines Wide Area Networks Access Appliances Sensor Networks Data Aggregation Interoperability and Integration Sensors/Actuators PMUs Meters SCADA Grid Ntwrk Energy Weather Wind Markets sensors Solar IEDs GIS Transactive Control of Energy Delivery Condition Based Management Voltage stability monitoring Power Outage Prediction Managing the Dispatch of Demand Response Building Energy Services Microgrid Design & Management Optimization of Electric Vehicle Charging Station ….and many others © 2010 IBM Corporation IBM开发了一系列的工具、模型以推动能源价值链的转型 The Smart Grid Maturity Model 5 Innovating Next Wave Improvements 4 Optimizing Enterprise Wide 3 Integrating Cross Functional 2 Functional Investing 1 Exploring and Initiating Strategy, Management & Regulatory Grid Societal & Environmental Operations Organization & Structure Technology - Overall strategy expanded due to SG capabilities - Optimized rate design/regulatory policy (most beneficial regulatory treatment for investments made) - New business model opportunities present themselves and are implemented - Collaboratively engage all stakeholders in all aspects of transformed business - Organizational changes support new ventures and services that emerge - Entrepreneurial mind set, Culture of innovation - Autonomic computing, machine learning - Pervasive use and leadership on standards - Leader and influence in conferences and industry groups, etc… - Leading edge grid stability systems - Actualize the "triple bottom line“(financial, environmental and societal) - Customers enabled to manage their own usage (e.g. tools and self-adaptive networks) - Tailored analytics and advice to customers - Managing distributed generation - SG drives strategy and influences corporate direction - SG is a core competency - External stakeholders share in strategy - Willing to invest and divest, or engage in JV and IP sharing to execute strategy - Now enabled for enhanced mkt driven or innovative regulatory funding schemes - Integrated systems and control drive organizational transformation - End to end grid observability allows organizational leverage by stakeholders - Organization flattens - Significant restructuring likely occurs now (tuning to leverage new SG capabilities and processes) - Data flows end to end (e.g. customer to generation) - Enterprise business processes optimized with strategic IT architecture - Real world aware systems - complex event processing, monitoring and control - Predictive modeling and near real-time simulation, analytics drives optimization - Enterprise-wide security implemented - Collaboration with external stakeholders - Environmentally driven investments (aligned with SG strategy) - Environmental scorecard/reporting - Programs to shave peak demand - Ability to scale DG units - Available active mgmt. of end user energy uses and devices - Completed SG strategy and business case incorporated into corp. strategy - SG governance model deployed - SG Leader(s) (with authority) ensure cross LOB application of SG - Mandate/consensus with regulators to make and fund SG investments - Corp. strategy expanded to leverage new SG enabled services or offerings - SG is driver for org. change (addressing aging workforce, culture issues, etc.) - SG measures on balanced scorecard - Performance and compensation linked to SG success - Consistent SG leadership cross LOBs - Org. is adopting a matrix or overlay structure - Culture of collaboration and integration - SG impacted business processes aligned with IT architecture across LOBs - Common architectural framework e.g. standards, common data models, etc. - Use of advanced intelligence/analytics - Advanced sensor plan (e.g. PMUs) - Implementing SG technology to improve cross LOB performance - Data comms. detailed strategy/tactics - Active programs to address issue - Segmented & tailored information for customers – including environmental and social benefits - Programs to encourage off-peak usage - Integrated reporting of sustainability and impact - Synthesize triple bottom line view across LOBs - Integrated vision & acknowledgement - Initial strategy / business plan approved - Initial alignment of investments to vision - Distinct SG set-aside funding / budget - Collaboration with regulators and stakeholders - Commitment to proof of concepts - Identify initial SG leader - New vision influences change - Organizing more around operational end-to-end processes (e.g. breaking silos) - Matrix teams for planning and design of SG initiatives across LOBs - Evaluating performance and compensation for Smart Grid - Tactical IT investments aligned to strategic IT architecture within a LOB - Common selection process applied - Common architectural vision and commitment to standards across LOBs - Conceptual data comms. strategy - IED connectivity and business pilots - Implementing information security - Developing first SG vision - Support for experimentation - Informal discussion with regulators - Funding likely out of existing budget - Articulated need to change - Executive commitment to change - Culture of individual initiatives and discoveries - Knowledge growing; possibly compartmentalized (i.e. in silos) - Exploring strategic IT arch. for SG - Change control process for IT for SG - Identifying uses of technology to improve functional performance - Developing processes to evaluate technologies for SG Work & Asset Customer Management Management & Experience Value Chain Integration 示 例 - Grid employs self-healing capabilities - Automated grid decisions system wide (applying proven analytic based controls) - Optimized rate design/regulatory policy - Ubiquitous system wide dynamic control - Optimizing the use of assets between and across supply chain participants - Just in time retirement of assets - Enterprise-wide abstract representation of assets for investment decisions - Customer management of their end to end energy supply and usage level - Outage detection at residence/device - Plug-n-play customer based generation - Near real-time data on customer usage - Consumption level by device available - Mobility and CO2 programs - Coordinated energy management and generation throughout the supply chain - Coordinated control of entire energy assets - Dispatchable recourses are available for increasingly granular market options (e.g. LMP – Locational Marginal Pricing) - Integration into enterprise processes - Dynamic grid management - Tactical forecasts based on real data - Information available across enterprise through end-to-end observability - Automated decision making within protection schemes (leveraging increased analytics capabilities and context) - Enterprise view of assets: location, status, interrelationships, connectivity and proximity - Asset models reality based (real data) - Optimization across fleet of assets - CBM and predictive management on key components - Efficient inventory management utilizing real asset status and modeling - Usage analysis within pricing programs - Circuit level outage detection/notification - Net billing programs in the home - Automated response to pricing signals - Common customer experience integrated across all channels - Recent customer usage data (e.g. daily) - Behavior modeling augments customer segmentation - Energy resources dispatchable/tradable, utility realizes gain from ancillary services (e.g. power on demand) - Portfolio optimization modeling expanded for new resources and real time markets. - Ability to communicate with HAN (Home Area Network), incl. visibility and control of customer large demand appliances - Sharing data across functions/systems - Implementing control analytics to support decisions & system calculations - Move from estimation to fact-based planning - The customer meter becomes an essential grid management “sensor” - New process being defined due to increased automation and observability - Component performance and trend analysis - Developing CBM (Condition Based Mgmt.) on key components -Integrating RAM to asset mgmt, mobile work force and work order creation - Tracking inventory, source to utilization - Modeling asset investments for key components based on SG data - High degree customer segmentation - Two-way meter, remote disconnect & connect, and remote load control - Outage detection at substation - Common customer experience - Customer participation in DR enabled - New interactive products/services - Predictive customer experience - Integrated resource plan includes new targeted resources and technologies (e.g. DR, DG, volt/VAR) - Enabling market and consumption information for use by customer energy mgmt systems - New resources available as substitute for market products to meet reliability objectives - Established energy efficiency programs for customers - “Triple bottom line" view – (financial, environmental and societal) - Environmental proof of concepts underway - Consumption information provided to customers - Initial distribution to sub-station automation projects - Implementing advanced outage restoration schemes - Piloting remote monitoring on key assets (RAM) for manual decision making - Expanding and investing in extended communications networks - Developing mobile workforce strategy - Approach for tracking, inventory and event history of assets under development - Developing an integrated view of GIS and RAM with location, status and nodal interconnectivity - Piloting AMI/AMR - Modeling of reliability issues to drive investments for improvements - Piloted remote disconnect/connect - More frequent customer usage data - Assessing impact of new services and delivery processes (e.g. HAN) - Introducing support for home energy management systems - Redefine value chain to include entire eco-system (RTOs, customers, suppliers) - Pilot investments to support utilization of a diverse resource portfolio - Programs to promote customer DG - Awareness of issues and utility’s role in addressing the issues - Environmental compliance - Initiating conservation, efficiency, “green” - Renewables program - Exploring new sensors, switches, comms. devices and technologies - Proof of concepts / component testing - Exploring outage & distribution mgmt. linked to sub-station automation - Building business case at functional level - Safety & physical security - Conducting value analysis for new systems - Exploring RAM (Remote Asset Monitoring), beyond SCADA - Exploring proactive/predictive asset maintenance - Exploring using spatial view of assets - Research on how to reshape the customer experience through SG - Broad customer segmentation (e.g. geography, income) - Load management in place for C&I - Reactive customer experience - Identified assets and programs within value chain to facilitate load management programs - Identified distributed generation sources and existing capabilities to support - Develop strategy for diverse resource portfolio ? 当前水平 期望水平 智能电网成熟度模型:评估智能电网 当前的状态,明确未来的发展方向 组件化业务模型:描述公用事业企 业应具备的业务功能 Application Neutral Process Management Routing Pub/Sub Dynamic crossreferencing, etc. Aggregation Compensating Transactions, etc. Service Service SAP XI/PI Data Mapping ! Metering SAP Solutions Meter SAP NetWeaver 碳排放模型:分析不同场景下的碳排 放量 16 SAP ERP SAP SCM SAP PM SAP CRM Gateway Service Web Services Repository & Management Transaction E2E Monitoring Auditing Service Information Management Business Events Monitoring Validation Error handling Service Business Rules ESB Complex Event Proven & Stable Messaging Service Business Integration Workflow/ Human Task Service Partner Systems Service Service Sensor Network Data Warehouse Mining EDI XML Cable Station Statistics BI. FTP etc. Swich etc. Service SCADA E-Energy模型:与德国政府合作开 发的基于信息和通信技术的未来能 源系统的模型 © 2010 IBM Corporation 什么使 IBM 与众不同? IBM拥有3000多名业界领先的经验丰富的专业人员, 全面的技术,以及成本效益方法论,能够帮助公用 事业公司改造价值链,实现商业价值 IBM可靠的能源与公用事业解决方案组合是基于我们 在世界各地实施解决方案所获得的经验,以及 SAFE——基于SOA的E&U行业框架——使公用事业 公司加快开发和交付新功能和新产品的速度。 IBM支持采用世界各地的智能电网标准,与政策制定 者合作,帮助规划产业的未来,以及在前沿技术的 创新 IBM的卓越中心,概念验证和研究, First of a Kind 项目验证创新成果,证明解决方案的实施能力 IBM的解决方案合作伙伴网络为集成技术的组合提供 选择和灵活性 © 2010 IBM Corporation IBM通过积极领导主要行业组织推动产业转型 GridWise 联盟是全球领先的宣传组织,致力于使世界电力系统现代 化,涵盖了整个能源供应链。 GridWise 架构理事会由美国能源部组建,以促进和实现全国电力系 统各个电力公司之间的互操作性。 能源咨询委员会出版了“智能电网:新能源经济的推动者”,以及 就如何发展一个协调、经济、高效的智能电网战略向美国能源部提 出建议。 Intellect 通过与监管机构,市场上被管制的和其他利益相关者的接 洽,代表了信息和通信技术,电子和通信公司在公用事业行业(如 供水,燃气和电力)的利益。 © 2010 IBM Corporation IBM是许多国际智能电网组织的主要成员和积极推动者,在行业标准和发展 方面发挥作用 Chair, GridWise Alliance Chair, GridWise Architecture Council Chair-Elect, Architecture Committee for NIST Smart Grid Interoperability Panel Member, US DOE Electricity Advisory Committee Sub-committee Chair, Smart Grid, Electricity Advisory Committee Member, IEC Technical Committee 8 on system issues in electric grid Member, ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 25 Working Group 1 Member, IEC 57 Working Group 8 on Distribution Management Chair-Elect, IEC 61968 Part 6 standards stream Vice Chairman, World Energy Council Interconnectivity Working Group Member, UCA® International Users Group including OpenHAN, OpenAMI, Common Information Model and IEC61850 Member, OASIS Energy Management Information Exchange and Energy Interoperation Technical Committees 19 © 2010 IBM Corporation IBM在能源电力领域的能力和参与模式 规划/计划 研究 管理 试点和创新项目 业务咨询 智能电网规划 技术咨询 智能电网技术规划 软件硬件产 品 合作开发解决方案 20 实施 系统集成 主承包商 应用管理 服务管理 软件和硬件解决方 案 © 2010 IBM Corporation Thai Traditional Chinese Gracias Russian Spanish Thank You English Merci French Obrigado Brazilian Portuguese Arabic Grazie Danke Italian German Simplified Chinese Korea Japanese © 2010 IBM Corporation