WELLINGTON labour market snapshot
Employment
Employment Growth - 2007 to 2012
%
8
Wellington
6
Auckland
4
Canterbury
2
-4
-6
GFC
Recession
(M08 - J09)
-8
Source: Statistics NZ
Annual Average Percentage Change
Feb 11 Quake
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Sep-10
Jun-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Sep-09
Jun-09
Mar-09
Dec-08
Sep-08
Jun-08
-2
Mar-08
0
Dec-07
• 269,000 people
employed end Dec
2012 (rate 65.6%)
• Wellington tanked
post recession. Slow
since March 2010.
• Canterbury and
Auckland tanked
earlier, but recovered
more rapidly, until
February 2011.
• Now Auckland has
weakened but still
growing, and
Canterbury is stepping
up.
Incomes
• Wellington has high
average annual
household incomes
• But employment
growth in filled jobs
has been below
average (and below
other urban
regions)
Vacancies
Skilled Vacancies Index (trend series)
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
Feb-13
Nov-11
Aug-11
May-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
May-10
Feb-10
Nov-09
Aug-09
May-09
Feb-09
Nov-08
Aug-08
May-08
Feb-08
Nov-07
Aug-07
Source: Department of Labour, Jobs Online Monthly Report
Nov-12
Feb11 Quake
0
Aug-12
20
May-12
Recession Mar08 Jun09 (6Q)
Canterbury
New Zealand
Auckland
Wellington
Feb-12
40
May-07
• Canterbury
vacancies have
been higher, esp.
since the Feb 11
quake
• Auckland and
Wellington
vacancy levels are
similar (flat)
%
80
Participation
Participation Rate - Wellington & All Regions
75
70
65
• High participation – 70.3% vs
68.2% nationally (only
Southland higher)
• Larger proportion of
population in the working
ages (15-64)
60
Wellington Region
All Regions
55
50
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Household Labour Force Survey
Participation Rate - Wellington & All Regions
%
80
75
70
65
60
Wellington Region
All Regions
55
50
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Household Labour Force Survey
09
11
Unemployment Rate - Wellington & All Regions
%
12
Unemployment
10
8
• Wellington now matches the
national rate (6.9%)
• Has generally been more
resilient during recessions
6
4
Wellington Region
All Regions
2
0
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Household Labour Force Survey
%
12
Unemployment Rate - Wellington & All Regions
10
8
6
4
Wellington Region
2
All Regions
0
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Household Labour Force Survey
09
11
Industry
• Strongest in
professional,
scientific and
technical services,
and in public
administration and
safety
• Weaker in
manufacturing,
and agriculture,
forestry and
fishing.
2012
Skills
• Wellington and Auckland
both highly skilled, with
less emphasis on skilled
and elementary
occupations, but also with
a higher than average
share of semi-skilled
•
•
•
•
Highly skilled: managers and
professional occupations
Skilled: technicians and trades
workers
Semi-skilled: clerks, services
and sales workers, agriculture
and forestry workers
Elementary: machinery
operators and assemblers,
general labourers
Forecasts
Annual average
percentage change
2013*
2014
2015
GDP Growth (Treasury)
3.0
3.4
3.1
Labour Productivity
1.2
1.3
1.5
Employment growth
1.8
2.1
1.6
Source: MBIE Short-term Employment Prospects: December 2012
(March years)
• Forecasts vary continuously, but can be usefully examined to see the basic
trends and how the various components relate
• 2013 employment growth to March is now forecast to be -0.7%, GDP 2.3%*
• Labour productivity has been growing, as GDP does quite well, while
employment growth has been slow
Employment growth by industry forecast
Industry
2013
2014
2015
Primary sector
1,800
1.1
3,600
2.2
2,700
1.6
Primary processing
1,700
1.8
1,500
1.5
2,100
2.1
Other manufacturing
2,900
1.8
1,700
1.0
2,300
1.4
Construction & utilities
15,800
8.6
18,600
9.3
4,200
1.9
Private services*
14,200
1.5
13,700
1.4
14,900
1.5
-700
-0.7
-200
-0.2
400
0.4
4,200
1.0
6,000
1.4
7,200
1.7
700
0.5
1,100
0.8
2,200
1.4
40,700
1.8
46,100
2.1
36,000
1.6
Core government
Health & education
Other public
Total
Source: MBIE Short-term Employment Prospects: December 2012
(March years)
* incl. Communication Services; Finance and Insurance; Property and Business Services; Professional ,
Scientific and Technical Services;
Employment growth by skills forecast
Skill level
2013
2014
2015
Highly skilled
15,300
2.1
17,100
2.3
16,500
2.2
Skilled
12,100
2.5
13,300
2.7
7,200
1.4
Semi-skilled
6,100
0.9
7,800
1.1
7,400
1.1
Elementary
7,200
2.2
7,900
2.4
4,900
1.4
40,700
1.8
46,100
2.1
36,000
1.6
Total
Source: MBIE Short-term Employment Prospects: December 2012
(March years)
• Strongest growth in skilled, highly skilled, and elementary level occupations,
reflecting the Canterbury rebuild and the strong growth in construction
• Both skilled and elementary play a smaller than national average role in
Wellington’s labour market
Employment growth by region forecast
Region
2012-14
2012-15
Northland
1,100
0.9%
3,200
1.6%
Auckland
23,600
1.8%
35,300
1.7%
Waikato
4,300
1.3%
8,200
1.7%
Taranaki
2,300
1.1%
6,100
2.0%
Bay of Plenty
5,200
1.7%
8,700
1.9%
East Coast
3,200
1.6%
5,600
1.8%
Central
3,400
1.5%
6,600
1.9%
Wellington
1,600
0.3%
8,900
1.2%
Nelson
3,700
2.0%
5,700
2.0%
Canterbury
26,500
4.2%
22,100
2.4%
Southern
11,800
2.7%
12,000
1.8%
Total
86,800
2.0%
122,800
1.8%
Employment growth by industry forecast - WN
Industry
2013
2014
2015
Primary sector
25
3.0
35
4.0
3
0.0
Primary processing
65
-2.0
69
2.0
172
6.0
Other manufacturing
92
-1.0
49
0.0
416
4.0
Construction & utilities
886
5.0
654
3.0
1,542
8.0
Private services*
549
0.0
1,637
1.0
1,796
2.0
-1,469
-5.0
-1,235
-5.0
1,935
7.0
Health & education
93
0.0
336
1.0
1,024
2.0
Other public
19
0.0
167
1.0
448
2.0
Total
93
0.0
1,713
1.0
7,331
3.0
Core government
Source: MBIE Short-term Employment Prospects: December 2012
(March years)
* incl. Communication Services; Finance and Insurance; Property and Business Services; Professional , Scientific
and Technical Services;
Challenges/Opportunities
• Diversifying Wellington’s industry mix
• Internationalising Wellington’s professional business service firms
(which are currently focussed on government)
• Continuing to improve tourism takings and better leveraging visitor
attractions to attract talent and investment
• Commercialising science and research development