Reducing Post-harvest Loss
to Advance Food Security
Steve Sonka, Director
June 6, 2012
AGENDA
• Future food security challenges
• Several “views” of post-harvest loss
• Post-harvest loss from an economic decision lens
• The ADM Institute and its contributions
Global Food Demand Is Predicted to Increase
70% by 2050 (FAO; 2009)
Per capita food consumption
3500
kcal/capita/day
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
World
1964/66
Industrialized
Developing
countries
countries
1964/66-1997/99 Growth 1997/99-2030 Growth
Dietary changes in developing countries
2030 Food Demands Require
About 200 Million More Hectares (McKinsey; 2011)
McKinsey Global Price
Institute’s
Resource Revolution
Commodity
Changes
Tell Interesting Story (McKinsey; 2011)
AGENDA
• Future food security challenges
X
• Several “views” of post-harvest loss
• Post-harvest loss from an economic decision lens
• The ADM Institute and its contributions
PHL Varies by Region (FAO; 2011)
DATA!
Per capita food waste and food loss (Kg/year)
Kg
per
year
PHL Varies by Commodity (FAO; 2011)
Post-harvest loss estimates in South & Southeast Asia
70%
66%
60%
49%
50%
consumption
40%
distribution
30%
processing and packaging
30%
22%
postharvest handling and storage
20%
agricultural production
10%
0%
Cereals
Roots & Tubers
Oilseeds &
Pulses
Fruit &
Vegetables
PHL Varies Across Growing Conditions
(IBRD/WB; 2011)
Generalized loss profiles for major grains in Eastern and Southern
Africa
30.0%
25.0%
24.2%
market storage
20.0%
16.8%
18.2%
16.9%
14.6%
15.0%
transport to market
storage
transport to store
10.0%
winnowing
shelling/threshing
5.0%
drying
harvesting/field drying
0.0%
hot/humid
maize small
warm
maize large
arid/desert
sorghum
small
arid/desert
millet small
hot/humid
rice small
PHL Varies Between Countries:
For Same Crop (FAO; 2002)
Rice: Total post-harvest losses
6%
5.46%
4.78%
5%
3.74%
4%
3.47%
3.16%
3%
2.74%
Asia
China
2%
1.31%
1%
1%
0.85%
0.99%
0%
harvesting
threshing
drying
storage
milling
PHL Varies Between States
Within One Country (ADM Institute; 2012)
Estimated post-harvest loss of black gram in India
30%
25.28%
25%
22.68%
20%
grading & repacking
transport
storage
15%
threshing
drying
10%
harvesting
5%
0%
Maharashtra
Madhya Pradesh
A More Specific Perspective:
Rice in SE Asia (IRRI; 2011)
In SE Asia, physical losses range from
15-25%.
Crop
Consumption
Quality losses range from 10-30%
(loss in value)
Reducing PHL and Increasing Yields
Have High Potential (McKinsey; 2011)
Little Attention Is Devoted
to PHL and Yields (McKinsey; 2011)
Why Reduce Post-harvest Loss?
Some Hypotheses
• Estimates suggest 1/3 of agricultural production is “wasted”
and doesn’t reach food consumer
• Investment required to reduce PHL could be modest
• Technology advances should make reduction more feasible
and less expensive
• Arable land, water, energy are in limited supply – reducing PHL
can lessen pressure on scarce resources
AGENDA
• Future food security challenges
X
• Several “views” of post-harvest loss
X
• Post-harvest loss from an economic decision lens
• The ADM Institute and its contributions
Investable Framework
for Reduction of Post-harvest Loss
Cost of Reduction
Value
$s
S
S1
D1
D Benefits of Reduction
(Quantity & Quality)
Current
Setting
50 %
Reduction
100 %
Reduction
Reduced
Loss
(%)
AGENDA
• Future food security challenges
X
• Several “views” of post-harvest loss
X
• Post-harvest loss from an economic decision lens
• The ADM Institute and its contributions
X
Timeline of the ADM Institute
Fall, 2010
Jan 19, 2011
Initial conversations
Official announcement & celebration
$10 Million gift
India/Brazil emphasis
Staple crops
Feb, 2011
Seed research efforts initiated
$0.4 million in funding allocated
Mar /Jul, 2011 Visioning processes
Fall, 2011
RFP issued
$2.1 million in funding allocated
Throughout 2011 – Prospecting for collaborating entities
The ADM Institute for the Prevention of
Postharvest Loss
Vision Statement
Key elements include:
• To be an international information and technology hub
• To encompass technologies, practices and systems
• To focus on staple crops in key agricultural domains
Research Themes
Measurement & technology
development
Systems informatics & analysis
Policy analysis
Education, training, & information
transfer
Our Aspirational Contributions
Measurement of
loss
Challenge
Investable
Quantum jump
implementation
technology
framework
ssonka@illinois.edu
http://postharvestinstitute.illinois.edu/