The Australian Liquid Fuel Technology Assessment
(ALFTA)
November 2014
Presented by
Arif Syed
Program Leader: Research and Analysis Program
Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics
bree.gov.au
Outline
I ALFTA Overview
II Assumptions, Costs and Technologies
III ALFTA Model
IV Levelised Costs of Fuel Over Time
V Key Findings
bree.gov.au
I. ALFTA Overview: Previous Work
• International studies are not easily available on the cost of
liquid fuel technologies (for transport use).
• In 2012-13, the Department of Resources, Energy and
Tourism engaged the LEK consultancy to produce cost
estimates of advanced biofuel production technologies.
• The study essentially remained inconclusive in producing
the levelised cost of fuel estimates (production cost of
liquid fuels for transport uses).
bree.gov.au
Aim of ALFTA
• ALFTA provides the best available and most upto-date estimate of current and future costs
(component cost and levelised costs) of 18 liquid
fuel technologies for transport use.
bree.gov.au
Approach
• Component costs have been developed through a
bottom-up engineering analysis of each of the
technologies. These costs include, costs such as
domestic capital costs, international capital costs, labour
productivity, etc.
• Parameters provided for each fuel generation technology
(thermal efficiency, O&M costs, fuel costs, capacity
factors, etc.
bree.gov.au
ALFTA Report and Model
(1) ALFTA Report: Details the technologies and methods.
(2) ALFTA Model: Available upon request:
www.info@bree.gov.au
bree.gov.au
II. Key Assumptions
• Key assumptions include: (1) economic growth of 2.5%;
(2) AUD moving to 0.86 USD/AUD by 2031-32.
• Capital costs are provided on the basis of an Nth-of-a-kind
(NOAK) plant in Australia and at a utility-scale.
bree.gov.au
Component Costs
• Capital Costs (local & international components)
• Operation & Maintenance (fixed and variable)
• Feedstock-input costs (provided by ACIL Allen)
• Owner’s costs
bree.gov.au
18 Fuel technologies covered:
1. Conventional petroleum fuels
2. Liquid petroleum gas
3. Compressed natural gas
4. Liquefied natural gas
5. Gas to liquids
6. Coal to liquids
7. Biomass to methanol
8. Solar dissociation
9. Conventional bioethanol
10. Advanced lignocellulose bioethanol
11. Advanced bioethanol - synthesis gas fermentation
12. Biodiesel by transesterification
13. Hydrothermal upgrade
14. HEFA/HVO
15. Algal biomass via HEFA/HVO
16. Methanol/DME/MTG
17. Fast pyrolysis
18. Alcohol to jet
bree.gov.au
Levelised Cost of Fuel (LCOF)
LCOF=KC + O&M fix + O&M var + FC + SC + PC
Where, the LCOF =$/GJ
bree.gov.au
III. ALFTA Model
• Values of more than 17 cost parameters can be altered by
users to explore the LCOF estimates’ sensitivity to the
user’s input.
bree.gov.au
ALFTA Regional Costs
F. Coal to Liquids
Regional
Capital
Biomass to Methanol
Cost Modifiers
100.00%
105.00%
105.00%
120.00%
East
Coast
East
Coast West
Coast West
Coast
Metropolitan
Regional
Regional
100.00%
105.00% Metropolitan
105.00%
120.00%
bree.gov.au
LCOF breakdown in cost components
Select Technology:
M. Advanced Bioethanol - Synthesis Gas Fermentation
Select Region:East Coast Regional
LCOF Component ($/GJ)
2013
2020
2025
2030
2040
2050
Capital Cost
#N/A
25
23
21
18
16
Fixed O&M
#N/A
5
5
5
6
6
Variable O&M
#N/A
8
8
9
10
11
Feedstock Costs
#N/A
13
13
13
13
13
Cost of Emissions
#N/A
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL LCOF
#N/A
52
50
48
47
46
bree.gov.au
IV. LCOF over time
M. Advanced Bioethanol Synthesis Gas Fermentation
60
50
LCOF ($/GJ)
40
30
20
10
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Year 2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
East Coast Regional
bree.gov.au
HEFA / HVO
LCOF comparisons 2013, real 2012-13 A$/GJ
Biodiesel by transesterification
Methanol to Gasoline
Conventional Ethanol
Compressed Natural Gas
Conventional Petroleum Fuels
Methanol to Dimethyl Ether
Gas to Liquids
Liquid Petroleum Gas
Coal to Liquids
Liquified Natural Gas
0
15
30
45
60
bree.gov.au
Solar Fuel - Methanol - MTG
LCOF 2020, real 2012-13 A$/GJ
Solar Fuel - Methanol - DME
Algal Biomass plus HVO
HEFA / HVO
Biodiesel by transesterification
Synthesis Gas Fermentation
Methanol to Gasoline
Conventional Petroleum Fuels
Conventional Ethanol
Compressed Natural Gas
Methanol to Dimethyl Ether
Liquid Petroleum Gas
Advanced Lignocellulosic
Bioethanol
Hydrothermal + Hydrogenation of
bio oil
Gas to Liquids
Biomass - Methanol - MTG
Fast Pyrolysis Biomass to
Gasoline and Diesel
Biomass - Methanol - DME
Coal to Liquids
Liquified Natural Gas
$/GJ
0
45
90
135
180
bree.gov.au
Solar Fuel - Methanol - MTG
LCOF 2050, real 2012-13 A$/GJ
Algal Biomass plus HVO
Solar Fuel - Methanol - DME
HEFA / HVO
Biodiesel by transesterification
Synthesis Gas Fermentation
Conventional Petroleum Fuels
Compressed Natural Gas
Methanol to Gasoline
Liquid Petroleum Gas
Gas to Liquids
Conventional Ethanol
Methanol to Dimethyl Ether
Hydrothermal + Hydrogenation of
bio oil
Advanced Lignocellulosic
Bioethanol
Biomass - Methanol - MTG
Fast Pyrolysis Biomass to
Gasoline and Diesel
Liquified Natural Gas
Biomass - Methanol - DME
Coal to Liquids
$/GJ
-20
30
80
130
180
bree.gov.au
V. Key Findings
• There are several currently available technologies from
which fuel production is already competitive with
conventional petroleum fuels, i.e. have a lower LCOF.
• By 2020, multiple emerging technologies are expected to
be available at a lower LCOF than petroleum fuels.
-- eg. Coal to Liquids (CTL) and Gas to Liquids (GTL).
bree.gov.au
Key Findings cont.
• Advanced bioethanol fuel technologies become cost
competitive in 2020, and remain cost competitive out to
2050.
bree.gov.au
Thanks
arif.syed@industry.gov.au
Thank you
bree.gov.au
bree.gov.au